David J Carr - Realtime Web

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But first a quick pinch of salt... “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. 1977 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 “There’s no chance the “Computers in the iPhone is going to get future may weigh no any significant market more than 1.5 tons.” share. No chance.” Popular Mechanics, forecasting Steve Ballmer, MSFT CEO 2007 the march of science, 1949

#1 (REAL)time now. & live.

So what is happening now? re ta lking pe ople a ams, Lots of -time stre t... Real rch, abou e sea Re al-tim ectations. e exp Re al-tim wh y?

19% users no w say er ser t vi of internet r e hey us are h Twitte ce to s s, e 27 pe .3 r day w a nnual ith an weets llion t n millio un r tweets or an oth emselv hers. of 10 b i bout th bout ot rate upd ates a dates a or to see up 40 ok Facebo illion a m a y from t es a d ience. s upda lus aud 800 statu t millio s upda nd IM U o n nth by es a m sers statu 350 m illion- p ults ine ad d M a il A ges of onl se Yahoo A 18 -24 who have u ated 2% r or upd +65 Twitte online s 4% a statu 55 – 64 5% 45 – 54 10% 20% 35 – 44 19% 25 – 34 18 –24 Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Facebook, Yahoo, Pingdom

e’ve never y me ans w here’s a Tech nolog are t hat t ow. ore aw ing n been m gs h appen ributing lot of thin vely cont acti And we’re

People using technology to share “live-streams” what they do, buy, think, and watch ...creating more and more information. How are we dealing with it?

a digression ? No, it’s not a joke. “The GScreen Spacebook was designed to help you get more done in a mobile environment” Maybe not... elp for d rome." ting h ibration syn ? — Get "P the fe e g m v hanto hen you ans it w er you ling w only to find icity) , mobile all. (Neuropla st r More seriously, we’re looking to practically vibratin ated at integrate the increasing r ne ver vib infomation overload into our lives via technology filters like Real-time search.

What is so different about real-time search v. normal search? o Relevancy is important, but timeliness is the essential part. o It is getting an idea of what people are talking about or interested in now. o The potential is to combine: - on-the-spot peer reviews - recommendations - discovery - offers and time sensitive calls to action - social media connections/referrals - instant information updates. How are people already a re phat ic approaching real-time search? tw eets nal of the versatio lue" o Bing & Google are already integrating 0.55% are con o 4 .55% va long nal ss a Twitter into their search results, Yahoo is o 37 av e "pa promotio putting them on the homepage. .7% h re self- o 8 5% a m o 5.8 5% are spas. o “We don’t know enough about what kinds of o 3.7 % are new queries people would issue against real-time o 3.6 data to know how monetizable it is.” Marissa Mayer, Google

And people are exploring new(ish) tools Mentionmap maps the topics of conversation heating up in your social graph.

With new ways of converting noise to knowledge. Ellendale uses Freebase and other information sources to create a “semantic analysis of the real-time web.”

Practical approaches to search and other real-time trends... Temporal cues in your search query determine the relevance of time and change the priority of your results e.g. If you search for “snow conditions at your favorite ski resort, you’ll find updates from other users who are there and sharing the latest and greatest information.” Real-time online collaboration o A Business benefit of the real-time trend. o Part of the shift from batch analytics and waterfall processes, to real-time analytics and agile processes. o Using Google Wave and add-ons like SAP’s Gravity. o Enable groups of people to collaborate on projects without the cost or infrastructure investment of a Sharepoint-type solution. Sources: Top 15 Technology trends for Enterprise Architects to watch, Forrester; Google

Real-time o Visible staff involvement in problem resolution. o Reacting and responding to questions and customer issues quickly and transparently, #twelpforce: 13,000 queries in the first two months. service o Engaging in real human conversations.

Real-time dialogue campaigns

Aggregating opinion & newsworthy content to improve coverage of real time events.

Brands stimulating and aggregating streams of relevant conversations and associated content. Platforms for entering and harnessing the dialogue that is already happening. * BRAND ND a DESTINATION NAT implied na lways t steps, FLA FLASH tinatio thout nex user” * Des nd wi “end- MICROSITE MIC e m finite ke the ter li a bit

Time sensitive offers designed for life-streams o Integrated into real-time experience with a sense of NOW. o Urgency because traditional marketing campaigns (like TV progs) now can be filtered and time shifted (and even forgotten as our content collection piles up). NB: Facebook have changed the rules...again.

“The next phase of media, I’ve been thinking, will be after the page and after the site. Media can’t expect us to go to it all the time. Media has to come to us. Media must insinuate itself into our streams.” Jeff Jarvis

Real-time eCommerce o As retailers move closer to real-time inventory management, it increases the possibility of more widespread dynamic demand led pricing. o Consumers can be alerted about price changes as they happen. o They can even group together to negotiate bulk discounts.

What does it means for the site owners? More time on site but fewer page views. Decreased server costs with fewer page refreshes and DB calls as sites move from polling to real-time push. Advertising analytics nightmare. 8 hours = 1 pageview but 100’s of opportunities to see an ad? How can you tell which story in the stream was read and which was missed? Source: Ted Roden New York Times

The e-commerce opportunity? Real-time insight. “a clothing retailer could identify a spike in positive chat about a celebrity that is wearing one of their apparel items, and could immediately feature that piece of clothing on their homepage and launch campaigns to a targeted audience interested in that celebrity and lifestyle. This allows the retailer to immediately maximize the new revenue opportunity, and deliver more engaging, relevant content to its customer base.”

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF US? PubSubHubbub (PuSH) real-time syndication protocol. Publisher Hub Subscriber FASTER, COMPUTATIONALLY EFFICIENT AND A WAY FOR SMALL PUBLISHERS TO GET INTO GOOGLE RESULTS IN REAL-TIME.

If you tap into a “live-stream” of first or second hand experiences and thoughts, how can control the flow and tell what is relevant? - c ontent ation of s onalis only what is tic per owing Seman and sh g f ilterin to you. vides a o r elevan t eb prows data tic w at all ream i s emanwork th cross “The s frame s t the st not the e tha ata is on eused a Re cogni and “d comm ared and r d ill da ta t. to be sh prise an 3C). st nsigh FUL , enter ries” (W ” or i NING n licatio bounda truth EA T ≠M ST M app O munit y RECE N y vocal d”. com MOST cked b ncerne et hija erly co D on’t g or “ov y m inorit

Source: Richard MacManus, RRW Content is rapidly pushed down the stream by 4,000 articles/videos a day. “Low quality”, high search visibility “farmed” content.

Lots of people, saying lots of different things, all expecting a response, now. They’re waiting. How do you deal with expectation culture?

ntin g on com me e even u like it Th ey’r ether yo r site wh t) or not. you enab led i (& have

CMO Customer Customer Customer listening participation operations and design s , ignmer s s deee custo sinceure wh r bu ialiness stru t business p Soc bus w cted to s grou a ne ne is con real-time fo cu ”. feedb ack d people es “like a og y, data an or PR, process g technol f digit al o nd co mbinin tmentalism ticipating a s, r r t No compa is about pa ning produc in g sig ad vertis ab out de s. arket in g is nce m experie es and servic Sources: David Armano, Dachis Group, Razorfish

a create tc. will launch e al reaction. ry a ction, le digi t Eve nd vis ib c inst ant a “publi d evelop sponse to ne eds to rapid re utlets . o PR ships” in e news o rela tion st ma n a g not ju s dia logue i sation nt organ to clie ications and Domin ated in mmun o’s Piz za any gr ? one? o Inte ed co vi ce role as a c ombin tionship/ser er rela custom

Real-time has only limited applicability to someone sitting at a desk in front of a computer beyond news and dialogue, where is the real benefit? f sw itch of ing do n’t you do someth “Why and creen ?” your s ing instead or less b

honest.

Mobile Internet Outpaces Desktop Internet Adoption Source: Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley, “Economy + Internet Trends”, October 2009; Neilsen Global Mobile – Strategies for Growth iPhone + iTouch Users = 8x AOL Users 8 Quarters After Launch ~57MM 60 Mobile Internet Desktop Internet iPhone + iTouch Netscape* 50 Launched 6/07 Launched 12/94 Subscribers (MM) 40 ~25MM Mobile Internet 30 NTT docomo i-mode Launched 6/99 20 ~11MM Desktop Internet 10 AOL* ~7MM v 2.0 Launched 9/94 Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19 Quarters Since Launch iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape 187% increase in 18.3 million 65 million people mobile social network unique mobile social use Facebook on a audience for YTD July ‘09. network users. mobile device.

Affordable contracts Higher speed, new technology Removed cost uncertainty Location Based Services FLAT RATE BETTER PRICING NETWORKS Better choice Better GUIs, halo effect of iPhone BETTER HANDSETS Better choice Optimised for mobile, influence of Apps store & Market BETTER CONTENT

“The majority of the real-time search boom will be in its convergence with another rapidly growing industry, mobile computing. [Offering people] real-time recommendations based on your current location using an application that aggregates information from real-time searches as well as social sites like Yelp and Urban Spoon...... local advertisements and “limited time” discounts on your mobile.”* Social Periphery *Rob Diana

Social Periphery & Mobile Social Networks Local networks of Global Services Mobile & mixed media sensors and devices and Communities applications/tools Content & Context & relationships Location as filter as intelligence GPS, location Social Communities RFID & & bespoke networks & forums NearField sensors Blogs, UGC Barcodes, QR codes & niche sites and markers Dynamic communication based on action and relevance (Ambient awareness/Social Peripheral Vision) Brands as the filter Physical objects On is off/Off is on and the enabler. in intelligent as physical and Ideas must be “good environments digital worlds fuse enough to share” Helping us plan for now and what’s next. by David J. Carr davidjcarr.wordpress.com Based on Nokia’s Mobile Gateway & Jyri Engestrom

From palm of your hand social feed integration as standard, to 24hr location-based content streams and documentaries (The Grid),

to third-wave mobile applications and hardware extensions to monitor anything from our finances to our health and fitness.

And even extending to e-readers and iTablets iSlates iPads.

a digression V S E SU R SU R E Mobile computing, S V content AND context sets up new battle lines to define the future. VERSUS With And unexpected unexpected companies victims. playing catch-up.

What services and content can we deliver at the content/context cross-section? Chain-wide localized, product-specific and cost effective marketing for stores, when the inventory in more than 70 Adidas Outlet Stores vary from store to store. And so do the special offers.

Coupon sites have been the second-most-visited Source: Business Week, HitWise, Quidco/YouGov, BIGresearch and Resource Interactive, August 2009 category on the Internet, behind job sites, for a year. eMarketer May, 2009 61% able to sca n wa nt to be bar co n othe m ation o d des an r acces s infor . s ’ price stores 9% e ellphon ed a c t us d abou e a frien . tm essag hopping to tex t while s ap roduc 34%an on li ie have looked e a w at le . ne rev urchase p st onc 6 s 2% rs l of UK consu re buy hoppe ties befo e t onlin ing. at k in g a ni be fore m a c ommu

Enable our commercial relationships in the context of their real relationships.

Even playful location-based social periphery tools.

Augmented reality moving beyond marketing gimmick.

a digression What do these tools mean for our relationships?

a digression Can we challenge 150?

a digression Pre-digital society: Closer, less diverse discussion networks, more geographically clustered? >150 <150 (Dunbar’s number) >150 Number of Relationships Geographical proximity Geographical proximity Digitally-enabled society: More diverse discussion networks, more geographically spread? >150 <150 (Dunbar’s number) >150 Sources: Pew Internet And American Life Project, Number of Relationships Geographical proximity Geographical proximity

a digression

Mobile & (REAL)time More timely information More connections More opportunities to meet up in the real world More live experience

#1 (REAL)time now. & live.

digital experiences we participate in and use, experiences that break out into the real world. What’s helping this happen?

On is off/Off is on. mobile phones to cars and tube From tickets, in a world of cheap, fast & always on Wi-Fi, an unconnected device is unusual. More live interfaces with the real world.

“A year from now basically every new phone that’s sold will have [Near Field Communication]. It’s a two-way, bio-directional RFID communication link that makes this device work as a tag or as a reader.” Sony Ericsson’s VP of systems architecture, Håkan Djuphammar

B al ls?

a digression Ardui no & Home made hardw are hackin g

These sensors, technologies and devices are helping brands move from messaging to digitally-enabled, increasingly live, real-world experiences.

The shift to digital experiences enables more shared “watercooler” moments...

...access to “exclusive” live events...

...and even the feeling of live and unfiltered brand engagement or consumer control.

What influences do digital experiences have on consumers? 65.3% report a digital experience changing their perception of a brand 97.1% report that the digital experience has influenced purchase 24% have produced digital content in order to enter a contest Source: Razorfish Feed

= Engagement Engagement = Quantity or Time Engagement = Depth & Quality

a digression even extends to changing marketing from pure comms to creating useful, useable & delightful services/products

a digression ...or enabling live, real-time responsive retail POS and outdoor. digital retail pos Sources: GMA Report 2009, ACNielsen “Actionable Shopper Insights” Only shopp 16% of ers use grocer lists. y 70% of their p people roduc m at the t selec ake fixtur tion e.

#1 (REAL)time & Real relationships and Real, live experiences relevant information and engagement at the speed of now. beyond advertising.

What could mean for our clients?

o Audiences are mobile – we need to widen digital touch points and become the enabler & filter for people, - Help them now and help them plan for what they are doing next. o To do this will require moving beyond a website-centric model to a distributed platform. - Enable customers to engage in the channel they prefer/have available and track them through fragmented journeys with a single identity - Serve only what’s relevant in current need state and location o Customer feedback will be dynamic and real time – the crowd will express what it wants through its behaviour as well as communicating preferences and views. - An ‘open source’ approach should be considered, tailoring our propositions (function and content) to needs and feedback in real time o Social CRM combining social listening tools with CRM systems tied back to company data to track influencer financial value and help us respond to their needs faster.

o Customers will automatically connect with people they have something in common with, experiences are logged and shared automatically, so we’ll need to only serve up relevant content for people to make better decisions. - Personalise and aggregate their offers and promotions as part of shopping experience, make it easier for them to share a good deal and not to miss out - Deal expiry alerts in their streams, use networks to share trackable offer codes o If everything is connected then there are increased engagement opportunities: but we need to design accordingly and appropriately. o Can we extend communications to packaging/POS giving them a layer of digital information or utility? o The increase in digital noise for people will mean that our brand will have a key role to carry the relationship. - Hard to compete for share of attention - Human reaction to mask out noise - We need to help them by making sure all interactions and communications have the value exchange firmly in their favour

a digression “Please hide/remove the customer-service number.” And yet “Our requirement is the reduce calls to the call-centre.” “We want people to self-serve.”

NDLER TO RESPOND D HA IN E AP AM PR CEO N OP TO RI N EC CORR T DEPA AT Tech IG HR Support TO EM ASS E RT T EDIU M U RO EN T M 0800 000 000 Customer Marketing Service @Corp someone@someone.com DM @Someone Inquiry/ Immediate/ monitoring auto response & then hand-over aknowledgement Empowered @Someone decision-making, training & investment.

Over a month later the SERP results for “Vodafone & Twitter” are dominated by the news story, not product information. Things happen in real-time but can stick around for a long time.

Practice true customer-centric behaviour, integrated into all business processes, not a silo or a channel, horizontal not vertical... 8 Signs of Customer-centric Behaviour • You send customers to • Your customers are doing things other websites. with your product you never dreamed and are posting videos. • You measure how many people refer their friends to you as • Active influencers are adding you as success (Net Promoter Score). friends on social networks. • When budgets get tightened, • You work with your competitors you tighten operational costs. towards better customer experiences for all. • Your only customer service policy is to do right by • You know you compete for your the customer. customers’ attention with everyone. Source: Tara Hunt

...and throughout the entire consumer decision-making process. Increase in number of brands/solutions being considered. Attention paid to advertising, WOM & online research with information gathering key Start with a shortlist of brands/solutions Active & Passive Loyalty Active Loyalty fuels advocacy but Passive is a larger audience On-going exposure Closure & the moment of decision Consumer builds expectations based on experience to inform their next decision journey Source: McKinsey

a digression of organisations ban social network access at work.

Potentially Trust in “sources of information about a company” 60 Friends/Peers 50 40 30 20 10 0 US UK/Fr/Ger BRIC Source: Edelman Trust Barometer

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David J Carr - Realtime Web

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