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Delphi Tutu2 Ptapio 050218

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Petri Tapion tietoisku

Petri Tapion tietoisku

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  • 1. What to do with Delphi data? Feedback and scenarios Case: Traffic CO 2 policy in Finland Petri Tapio P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 2. What will you do with the gathered data?
    • Think about it before you gather it!
      • Concentrate on statements or arguments?
      • Gathering of authentic statements/arguments or content analysis?
      • Quantitative data? Think about scales!
        • do not use 5-Likert (or other ordinal scale) scale unless you have to
        • use rather interval scale or relative scale
        • use rather only one or two scale types
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 3. Feedback from the first round may include
    • Answers from the previous round + same questions again
    • Separate report and better questions
    • Each participant’s own answers related to others
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 4. Feedback in the case P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 5. Arguments in the case…
    • Arguments for the upper curves
      • public transport should be supported without restricting passenger car traffic
      • the freedom for private car use should not be restricted
      • the growth of CO 2 emissions can be stopped with technical development
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 6. … Arguments 2…
    • Arguments for the middle curves
      • the growth potential of passenger car traffic should be guided towards soft modes, public transport and telecommunications
      • urban infill is preferable to reduce the need for traffic
      • traffic is a mean, not an end itself, economy and communication should be handled with low need for traffic
      • economic growth should be achieved by electronic industry and services, which would reduce the growth rate of freight transport in relation to GDP
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 7. … Arguments 3
    • Arguments for the lower curves
      • telecommunications will and should substitute physical traffic
      • local more non-material economy is preferable
      • railroads should be emphasised in both passenger traffic and freight transport
      • CO 2 emissions should be reduced 60-80% from today’s level to stop climate change, which is not possible without also reducing road traffic volume
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 8. Cluster analysis
    • grouping the responses to clusters
    • preferable as well as probable futures of the three key variables
      • GDP, road traffic volume, CO 2 emissions from road traffic
    • Qualitative content analysis
    • are the arguments for the responses within a cluster similar?
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 9.
    • Rescaled Distance Cluster Combine
    • 0 5 10 15 20 25
    • Organisation +---------+---------+--------+--------+--------+
    • pre=preferable
    • sty pro -+-----+ pro=probable
    • sty pre -+ |
    • akt pro -------+-------+
    • dodo pro -----+-+ |
    • rhk pro -----+ |
    • ym pro ---+---+ +---------+
    • rhk pre ---+ | | |
    • ytv* pro -+-+ | | |
    • tl pro -+ +-+ +-------+ |
    • lm pro -+-+ | | |
    • lm pre -+ | | |
    • lal pro ---+-+-+ +---------------+
    • al pro ---+ | | |
    • akt pre -----+ | |
    • lili pro ---+-+ | |
    • al pre ---+ +---+ | |
    • ene pro -----+ | | |
    • lal pre ---+-+ +---------------+ |
    • tl pre ---+ +-+ | |
    • ym pre -----+ +-+ |
    • ytv* pre -------+ |
    • dodo pre ---+-------+ |
    • ene pre ---+ +-----------------------------+
    • lili pre -----------+
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 10.
    • Cluster 1
      • BAU plus
    • Cluster 2
      • Ecological modernisation
    • Cluster 3
      • Modest structural change
    • Cluster 4
      • Strong structural change
    • Cluster 5
      • Deep ecology
    • Cluster 6
      • Steady state economy
    • Probable: STY, AKT, DODO, RHK
    • Preferable: STY
    • Probable: YM, YTV*, TL, LM, LAL, AL
    • Preferable: LM, RHK, AKT
    • Probable: LILI, ENE
    • Preferable: AL
    • Probable: -
    • Preferable: LAL, TL, YM, YTV*
    • Probable: -
    • Preferable: DODO, ENE
    • Probable: -
    • Preferable: LILI
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 11. Should you really buy our method? P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 12. Argumentative interviews
    • The role of the interviewer may be
      • Neutral
      • Sympathetic
      • Argumentative
    • Argumentative interviews
      • The researcher gives counterarguments and further questions to the interviewee’s statements
      • The aim is to produce deeper high quality arguments to make the interviewees learn from each other
      • … and to make the scenarios more precise and consistent
    • What kind of problems does this approach generate?
    • What are the ways to ameliorate the problems?
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 13. Argumentative interviews in round 2: Four ways to avoid bias
    • Tell them your argumentative role
    • Externalise yourself from the arguments
      • Rhetorically ”a counterargument has been posed that”
      • Think hypothetically - do not try to prove anything
      • Respect them and be curious - they may think differently but they do think
    • Use systematically first round arguments
      • Present arguments for upper curves and lower curves
    • Concentrate on rational arguments
      • Dismiss jokes or emotional statements
      • ” Dig into their heads”
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 14. Examples of personal bias
    • Some participants knew the interviewer’s
    • real opinions
      • ...or thought they knew
    • Two interviewees were not dealt with severely enough
      • familiarity with the person
      • the interviewer did not manage to interrupt the interviewee
    • Sometimes the interviewer did participate in non-rational debate
      • jokes
      • being too enthusiasted in some arguments
    • Concentration is essential!
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 15. Conclusions
    • Cluster analysis surprises
      • Who give similar and different responses?
    • Similar quantitative statements sometimes have different qualitative arguments
      • Ameliorate with logical analysis, empirical knowledge and common sence
    • Argumentative role of the interviewer induces more in-depth arguments
      • Not applicabile to lay people?
    • The method does not produce consistency from non-consistency…
      • … but it reduces oversimplification and helps in interpretation
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005
  • 16. Reference
    • Tapio, P. 2003. Disaggregative Policy Delphi: Using cluster analysis as a tool for systematic scenario formation,
    • Technological Forecasting and Social Change 70(1): 83-101.
    P.Tapio TUTU 2, 18.2.2005