re•making tomorrow
JAMAIS CASCIO
JUNE 2009

What if we really COULD change
the future for the better?

THREE NUMBERS

74,000
50
3

74,000

74,000
Years
Ago

50

50
Year
Scenario

Jamais Casio
Research Affiliate
Institute for the Future
Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat
April 20–21, 2009
© 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229
12

WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION
BANK FAILURES
MASS UNEMPLOYMENT
POLITICAL INSTABILITY

GLOBAL WAR
TRIGGERED BY MISCOMMUNICATION
WIDESPREAD CHEMICAL WARFARE
NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES

DEADLY PANDEMIC
MILLIONS DIE
A GENERATION LOST
BURNS ITSELF OUT

ANOTHER WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION
HYPER-INFLATION
RISE OF TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENTS
RADICAL ECONOMIC EXPERIMENTS

EVEN LARGER WORLD WAR
EVERY CONTINENT INVOLVED
GENOCIDE AS A WEAPON
CULMINATES IN A NUCLEAR ATTACK

HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?

HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?
IT ALREADY HAPPENED.

THE “LONG DEPRESSION,” 1870S-1890S
19 4

WORLD WAR I
20 5

GREAT INFLUENZA
21 6

GREAT DEPRESSION
22 7

WORLD WAR II
23 8

THIS CENTURY’S
CHALLENGES...

climate disruption

climate disruption

resource collapse

resource collapse

financial meltdown

financial meltdown

the rise of the post-
hegemonic era

the rise of the post-
hegemonic era

AND REFUGEES
AND PANDEMICS
AND TOPSOIL DEGRADATION
AND OVERPOPULATION
AND REGIONAL WARS
AND BIOTERROR
AND NANOTERROR
AND SPAM
AND...

RESILIENCE

RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE: THE CAPACITY OF A SYSTEM TO
TOLERATE DISTURBANCE WITHOUT
COLLAPSING, TO WITHSTAND SHOCKS, TO
REBUILD ITSELF WHEN NECESSARY, AND TO
IMPROVE ITSELF WHEN POSSIBLE.

flexibility

participation

interconnection

augmented
awareness

catalytic innovation

3

3%

THE BIG PICTURE

JAMAIS CASCIO
CASCIO@OPENTHEFUTURE.COM
WWW.OPENTHEFUTURE.COM
TWITTER: @CASCIO