re•making tomorrow
      JAMAIS CASCIO
        JUNE 2009
What if we really COULD change
   the future for the better?
THREE NUMBERS
74,000
  50
  3
74,000
74,000
 Years
 Ago
50
50
  Year
Scenario
Jamais Casio
               Research Affiliate

                 Institute for the Future
      Ten-Year Forecast Annual R...
WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION
      BANK FAILURES
   MASS UNEMPLOYMENT
   POLITICAL INSTABILITY
GLOBAL WAR
TRIGGERED BY MISCOMMUNICATION
 WIDESPREAD CHEMICAL WARFARE
   NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES
DEADLY PANDEMIC
   MILLIONS DIE
A GENERATION LOST
 BURNS ITSELF OUT
ANOTHER WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION
            HYPER-INFLATION
  RISE OF TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENTS
    RADICAL ECONOMIC EXPERIME...
EVEN LARGER WORLD WAR
  EVERY CONTINENT INVOLVED
    GENOCIDE AS A WEAPON
CULMINATES IN A NUCLEAR ATTACK
HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?
HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?


   IT ALREADY HAPPENED.
THE “LONG DEPRESSION,” 1870S-1890S




                        19           4
WORLD WAR I




              20   5
GREAT INFLUENZA




                  21   6
GREAT DEPRESSION




                   22   7
WORLD WAR II




               23   8
THIS CENTURY’S
CHALLENGES...
climate disruption
climate disruption
resource collapse
resource collapse
financial meltdown
financial meltdown
the rise of the post-
  hegemonic era
the rise of the post-
  hegemonic era
AND REFUGEES
AND PANDEMICS
AND TOPSOIL DEGRADATION
AND OVERPOPULATION
AND REGIONAL WARS
AND BIOTERROR
AND NANOTERROR
AND S...
RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE
RESILIENCE: THE CAPACITY OF A SYSTEM TO
    TOLERATE DISTURBANCE WITHOUT
 COLLAPSING, TO WITHSTAND SHOCKS, TO
 ...
flexibility
participation
interconnection
augmented
awareness
catalytic innovation
3
3%
THE BIG PICTURE
JAMAIS CASCIO

CASCIO@OPENTHEFUTURE.COM
 WWW.OPENTHEFUTURE.COM
         TWITTER: @CASCIO
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Amplify Talk

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Slides for talk given at Amplify09 in Sydney, Australia.

Published in: Technology

Amplify Talk

  1. 1. re•making tomorrow JAMAIS CASCIO JUNE 2009
  2. 2. What if we really COULD change the future for the better?
  3. 3. THREE NUMBERS
  4. 4. 74,000 50 3
  5. 5. 74,000
  6. 6. 74,000 Years Ago
  7. 7. 50
  8. 8. 50 Year Scenario
  9. 9. Jamais Casio Research Affiliate Institute for the Future Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat April 20–21, 2009 © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229 12
  10. 10. WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION BANK FAILURES MASS UNEMPLOYMENT POLITICAL INSTABILITY
  11. 11. GLOBAL WAR TRIGGERED BY MISCOMMUNICATION WIDESPREAD CHEMICAL WARFARE NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES
  12. 12. DEADLY PANDEMIC MILLIONS DIE A GENERATION LOST BURNS ITSELF OUT
  13. 13. ANOTHER WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION HYPER-INFLATION RISE OF TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENTS RADICAL ECONOMIC EXPERIMENTS
  14. 14. EVEN LARGER WORLD WAR EVERY CONTINENT INVOLVED GENOCIDE AS A WEAPON CULMINATES IN A NUCLEAR ATTACK
  15. 15. HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?
  16. 16. HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO? IT ALREADY HAPPENED.
  17. 17. THE “LONG DEPRESSION,” 1870S-1890S 19 4
  18. 18. WORLD WAR I 20 5
  19. 19. GREAT INFLUENZA 21 6
  20. 20. GREAT DEPRESSION 22 7
  21. 21. WORLD WAR II 23 8
  22. 22. THIS CENTURY’S CHALLENGES...
  23. 23. climate disruption
  24. 24. climate disruption
  25. 25. resource collapse
  26. 26. resource collapse
  27. 27. financial meltdown
  28. 28. financial meltdown
  29. 29. the rise of the post- hegemonic era
  30. 30. the rise of the post- hegemonic era
  31. 31. AND REFUGEES AND PANDEMICS AND TOPSOIL DEGRADATION AND OVERPOPULATION AND REGIONAL WARS AND BIOTERROR AND NANOTERROR AND SPAM AND...
  32. 32. RESILIENCE
  33. 33. RESILIENCE RESILIENCE: THE CAPACITY OF A SYSTEM TO TOLERATE DISTURBANCE WITHOUT COLLAPSING, TO WITHSTAND SHOCKS, TO REBUILD ITSELF WHEN NECESSARY, AND TO IMPROVE ITSELF WHEN POSSIBLE.
  34. 34. flexibility
  35. 35. participation
  36. 36. interconnection
  37. 37. augmented awareness
  38. 38. catalytic innovation
  39. 39. 3
  40. 40. 3%
  41. 41. THE BIG PICTURE
  42. 42. JAMAIS CASCIO CASCIO@OPENTHEFUTURE.COM WWW.OPENTHEFUTURE.COM TWITTER: @CASCIO
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