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Amplify Talk

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Slides for talk given at Amplify09 in Sydney, Australia.

Slides for talk given at Amplify09 in Sydney, Australia.

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Transcript

  • 1. re•making tomorrow JAMAIS CASCIO JUNE 2009
  • 2. What if we really COULD change the future for the better?
  • 3. THREE NUMBERS
  • 4. 74,000 50 3
  • 5. 74,000
  • 6. 74,000 Years Ago
  • 7. 50
  • 8. 50 Year Scenario
  • 9. Jamais Casio Research Affiliate Institute for the Future Ten-Year Forecast Annual Retreat April 20–21, 2009 © 2009 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. | SR-1229 12
  • 10. WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION BANK FAILURES MASS UNEMPLOYMENT POLITICAL INSTABILITY
  • 11. GLOBAL WAR TRIGGERED BY MISCOMMUNICATION WIDESPREAD CHEMICAL WARFARE NEW MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES
  • 12. DEADLY PANDEMIC MILLIONS DIE A GENERATION LOST BURNS ITSELF OUT
  • 13. ANOTHER WORLD-WIDE DEPRESSION HYPER-INFLATION RISE OF TOTALITARIAN GOVERNMENTS RADICAL ECONOMIC EXPERIMENTS
  • 14. EVEN LARGER WORLD WAR EVERY CONTINENT INVOLVED GENOCIDE AS A WEAPON CULMINATES IN A NUCLEAR ATTACK
  • 15. HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO?
  • 16. HOW LIKELY IS THIS SCENARIO? IT ALREADY HAPPENED.
  • 17. THE “LONG DEPRESSION,” 1870S-1890S 19 4
  • 18. WORLD WAR I 20 5
  • 19. GREAT INFLUENZA 21 6
  • 20. GREAT DEPRESSION 22 7
  • 21. WORLD WAR II 23 8
  • 22. THIS CENTURY’S CHALLENGES...
  • 23. climate disruption
  • 24. climate disruption
  • 25. resource collapse
  • 26. resource collapse
  • 27. financial meltdown
  • 28. financial meltdown
  • 29. the rise of the post- hegemonic era
  • 30. the rise of the post- hegemonic era
  • 31. AND REFUGEES AND PANDEMICS AND TOPSOIL DEGRADATION AND OVERPOPULATION AND REGIONAL WARS AND BIOTERROR AND NANOTERROR AND SPAM AND...
  • 32. RESILIENCE
  • 33. RESILIENCE RESILIENCE: THE CAPACITY OF A SYSTEM TO TOLERATE DISTURBANCE WITHOUT COLLAPSING, TO WITHSTAND SHOCKS, TO REBUILD ITSELF WHEN NECESSARY, AND TO IMPROVE ITSELF WHEN POSSIBLE.
  • 34. flexibility
  • 35. participation
  • 36. interconnection
  • 37. augmented awareness
  • 38. catalytic innovation
  • 39. 3
  • 40. 3%
  • 41. THE BIG PICTURE
  • 42. JAMAIS CASCIO CASCIO@OPENTHEFUTURE.COM WWW.OPENTHEFUTURE.COM TWITTER: @CASCIO