A New Kind of Eden

A NEW KIND OF EDEN Envisioning a Sustainable Future JAMAIS CASCIO SOCAP11

THE FUTURE,AS SEEN FROM THE PRESENT

Source: IFTF from data presented in h6p://www.newscien:st.com/ar:cle/mg20327266.500‐fair‐carbon‐means‐no‐carbon‐for‐rich‐countries.html

WHY SCENARIOS?

TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY

TO PROVIDE A “WIND TUNNEL” FOR STRATEGY Testing Strategic Options Seeking Adaptation Evolving within a Dynamic Environment

TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE

TO ILLUMINATE A CHALLENGE Clarifying Goals Offering Perspective Connecting Purpose and Intent Over the Long Term

TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM”

TO SERVE AS AN “IMMUNE SYSTEM” Testing Implications Seeking Points of Influence Uncovering Longer-Term Results of Present Choices

3 ALTERNATIVE FUTURES WALKING THE TIGHTROPE FLUX CAPACITY CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

WALKING THE TIGHTROPE

Design Principle: EfﬁciencyPolitics: Top-Down Leadership WALKING THE TIGHTROPESociety: TransparentEconomics: RegulatedTechnologies: Adaptive

POSSIBLE GEOENGINEERING TECHNIQUES

WALKING THE TIGHTROPE

FLUX CAPACITY

Design Principle: ResiliencePolitics: Recovery After CrisisSociety: Remaking InstitutionsEconomics: Maker World FLUX CAPACITYTechnologies: Careful

FLUX CAPACITY

CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

Design Principle: ExperimentationPolitics: DisruptedSociety: Rapidly EvolvingEconomics: RestorationTechnologies: Transformative CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

CATALYTIC CONVERSIONS

THE PRESENT,AS SEEN FROM THE FUTURE

JAMAIS CASCIO openthefuture.com @cascio A NEW KIND OF EDEN SOCAP11

Walking the Tightrope• Mainstream vision• Hard to achieve• Minimizing changes to lifestyles• emphasis on efﬁciency• “steady change and strong leadership• better-than-LEED buildings, electric cars• robot ag, careful biotech food• everything tagged and traceable• US-led, US hurt less by climate disruption than China/EU• Geoengineering• International cooperation• Heavy regulation, but still market-oriented• Developing world leapfrog• China/India/etc focus on getting to better-than-US lifestyle, not just replicating west• Very top-down

Flux Capacity• Hippie Nirvana? Not quite.• Recovery story, we are forced to rebuild the world; Adaptation• Most existing institutions questioned• Distributed and collaborative• Key design principle is resilience• Still high-tech, emphasis on social tech; “Cyber Amish”• Post-disaster, not post-apocalypse; long economic crisis• EU split, China unstable, US lost empire; no leading superpower• Strong regionalism; world no longer “ﬂat,” it’s very bumpy• citizenship often tied to city-states/megapolitan areas• rapid local fab, global markets are for info/design• slow-down of technological innovation• hybrid electric/sail cargo ships, permaculture farms, less long-distance travel• Deep interconnection, but often virtual; lots of sharing• It Gets Better

Catalytic Conversions• Radical tech• Move from adaptation to restoration• rapid transformation: things get weird fast; not a “Green Singularity,” but close to it• New models of governance, work, play• Notions of citizenship, commerce, even human identity called into question• Advanced neurotech, molecular fab, general machine intelligence• Neuro: augmentation, drugs, digital• Fab: nanotech. Smart materials, waste=resource, disrupted markets• GMI: knowledge work, ubiquitous• Also medical, energy, biotech. Biomimetic, robots, etc.• Basic Income Guarantees and the end of traditional work• Tools of empowerment or of control? Lots of international disruption• Big beneﬁts, but also big risks• “Mental health is civil defense”• Only one to get us out of “sustainability trap” - sustainability is just the start

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A New Kind of Eden

by Jamais Cascio on Sep 12, 2011

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