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Boulder Real Estate Market Conditions - November 2013
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Boulder Real Estate Market Conditions - November 2013

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An analysis of market conditions for real estate in Boulder, provided by House Einstein. Sponsored by Realty Unique.

An analysis of market conditions for real estate in Boulder, provided by House Einstein. Sponsored by Realty Unique.

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance

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  • 1. Market Research: Boulder an analysis of real estate market conditions in Boulder, Colorado November, 2013 Sponsored by:
  • 2. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Legal This presentation was prepared exclusively for the benefit and use of the Realty Unique clients to assist their study of real estate market conditions. This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without an in-person, oral presentation by Realty Unique. This presentation reflects opinions of prevailing market conditions on this date, which are subject to change. Realty Unique recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. The following presentation is not to be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice. Realty Unique will not be held liable for investment decisions derived from this presentation. Previous market performance is not a guarantee of future results and there is financial risk associated with buying or selling property. Consult with your financial, legal, and real estate advisers before making an investment decision. The data in this presentation was obtained by private and public sources, without independent verification. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 3
  • 3. “You can’t make a smart real estate decision without knowing the facts about market conditions.” -Osman Parvez, Founder Realty Unique, LLC
  • 4. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 About Osman Parvez: Osman’s professional experience includes investment analysis, real estate development, and investment banking. Prior to Realty Unique, he served as an Equities Research Associate for Kaufman Brothers, Research Director for Windwalker Real Estate, Associate Director for Capital Markets at Republic Financial, and co-founder of Silver Fern Homes. Outside of real estate and investing, he loves being in the wilderness and has research experience studying the impacts of climate change. Osman holds an MBA in finance, a B.S. in Biology, and is a Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE). Email: osman@silverfernrealty.com ph: 303.746.6896 HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 5
  • 5. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Market Conditions Regional Overview HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 6
  • 6. Regional Summary HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 • • • The inventory shortage continues. Among regional markets, the City of Boulder experienced the largest drop last month (compared to a year ago). Experts say that five to six months of inventory is a healthy balance between supply and demand. Most of our local markets have two to three months… extremely low inventory levels. Absorption was highest in Louisville and Lafayette during October. Properties in the mountain and plains experienced the lowest level. Oct ober YoY % Chg MoM % Change Boulder Boulder AD Erie Lafayette Longmont Louisville Superior Mountains Plains 187 160 102 72 276 42 25 225 184 (33.2)% (30.7)% (7.3)% (6.5)% (6.8)% (17.6)% (16.7)% (17.9)% (26.1)% (17.6)% (9.1)% (14.3)% 1.4 % (6.8)% (2.3)% (21.9)% (22.1)% (8.5)% Sold Volum e Oct ober YoY % Chg MoM % Change Boulder Boulder AD Erie Lafayette Longmont Louisville Superior Mountains Plains 68 40 35 28 88 20 11 27 23 30.8 % (11.1)% 29.6 % 7.7 % 8.6 % (4.8)% 10.0 % (20.6)% (32.4)% 13.3 % (28.6)% 45.8 % 12.0 % (13.7)% 0.0 % 10.0 % 50.0 % 0.0 % I nv ent or y HouseEinstein.com Absor pt ion ( Sold/ I nv * * ) Oct ober YoY % Chg MoM % Change Boulder Boulder AD Erie Lafayette Longmont Louisville Superior Mountains Plains 30.0% 22.7% 29.4% 39.4% 29.7% 46.5% 34.4% 9.3% 11.4% 78.0 % 35.4 % 29.6 % 25.9 % 20.8 % 17.4 % 44.4 % (9.9)% (2.1)% 32.3 % (22.1)% 47.1 % 16.7 % (9.1)% 30.2 % 13.4 % 76.0 % 5.5 % Pr ev . Mont h 3 Mo. Av g 3.8 3.1 5.0 2.8 2.9 2.2 3.2 3.1 2.8 3.7 2.6 2.9 2.0 2.5 Mont hs of I nv ent or y ( I mplied) Based On - > Oct ober Boulder Boulder AD Erie Lafayette Longmont Louisville Superior 2.8 4.0 2.9 2.6 3.1 2.1 2.3 ph: 303 746 6896 7
  • 7. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 City of Boulder Single Family Houses (detached dwellings) HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 8
  • 8. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Inventory • Only 187 homes were on the market last month. • Inventory was 33% below last October and 54% lower than the long term average. • Although selection is low, attractive homes can still be found in inventory. Showings should be set as soon as possible and buyers need to be prepared to make fast decisions. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 9
  • 9. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Sales Volume • 68 homes closed last month, the most closings during October since 2006. • This represents a 31% increase in sales volume compared with last year and 20% higher than the long term average for October. • Closings typically occur 3045 days after an offer is accepted. Last month’s historic flooding likely pushed some closings into October. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 10
  • 10. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Absorption • Absorption last month reached 30%, the highest October since at least 2004. Again, this was likely driven by the flood. • In this market, attractive properties are available for only a few days. Buyers, work with your agent to see property and educate yourself as early as possible. Even if you don’t write an offer, it will increase your confidence in making offers in the future. Expect multiple bids. • Sellers can continue to safely test the market with slightly higher prices than the most recent sales. Contracts can and should be structured for expected low appraisals. See your agent for more details. Note: Absorption is the percentage of inventory sold in a given period of time. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 11
  • 11. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Days to Offer • This chart shows average days to offer for deals that closed during the month. • This year has tracked well below the long term average and dipped as low as 18 during July. • Deals that closed during October averaged only 38 days on market before receiving an acceptable offer, or 47% below the long term average for the month. • Although the 4th quarter is typically a slow time for Boulder real estate, this year is different. Buyers should be prepared to act quickly when new listings appear. Sellers should structure their listings and negotiate accordingly. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 12
  • 12. Notable House Sales (Click Picture For Detail) HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Estate Sale Bargain Bin Gone in 60 seconds Man Cave, Included 4385 Chippewa Drive 2875 Kenyon Circle 2040 Walnut Street Key Statistics: 3 Bed, 2 Bath 1,630 SQFT Key Statistics: 4 Bed, 3 Bath 1,804 SQFT Key Statistics: 4 Bed, 4 Bath 3,495 SQFT Sold: 10/8/13 True Days on Market: 57 Sold: $505,000 % of Original Asking : 87.8% Sold: 10/31/13 True Days on Market: 67 Sold: $600,000 % of Original Asking : 100% Sold: 10/22/13 True Days On Market: 51 Sold: $1,020,600 % of Original Asking : 88.7% This one needed a ton of work, but it was priced accordingly. The first contract fell apart (likely inspection related) and the second buyer got it for a bargain. A great price for this neighborhood. Just spectacular; the best schools, close to the Rec Center, and great neighborhood. This one had lots of nice updates and a functional layout, plus a reasonable size lot on quiet street. No surprise, it went under contract almost immediately. Nice house but the location is cloistered next to noisy apartment buildings. It’s an updated historic home with a carriage house converted for alternate uses. On the market two weeks before receiving an acceptable offer. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 13
  • 13. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 City of Boulder Town Homes and Condos (attached dwellings) HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 14
  • 14. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Inventory • 160 town homes and condos were available for purchase during October. This is the lowest monthly inventory level since we began tracking a decade ago. • Inventory has been running at intensely low levels throughout the year. Peaking in April this year, it’s currently 61% below the long term average for the month. • Note: developers do not list full inventory on the MLS to give the illusion of limited supply. Accordingly, the chart may not reflect inventory from new developments such as Northfield Commons, The Peloton, One Penn Place, Uptown Broadway, or others. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 15
  • 15. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Sales Volume • 40 units closed last month, down 29% from September and 11% fewer than last year. • There was an unusual lull during June, otherwise this year presented a fairly typical seasonal pattern. • Sales volume over the last six and twelve months is up 14.4% and 14.2% from the same period a year ago, respectively. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 16
  • 16. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Absorption • As with traditional single family houses, absorption for attached dwellings has spiked upwards and remains elevated. • Last month’s absorption was 22.7%, more than double the long term average for October. • There are no indications of large amounts of new inventory on the horizon. Most new construction in the City of Boulder is designated for rental only. Note: Absorption is the percentage of inventory sold in a given period of time. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 17
  • 17. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Days to Offer • Deals that closed during October were available on average for 49 days before receiving an acceptable offer. • This is 51% below the long term average for the month and part of a continuing pattern of rapid market activity. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 18
  • 18. Notable Condo Sales (Click Picture for Detail) HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Cash is King Bankruptcy Fire Sale 5520 Stonewall Pl #16 3000 Redstone Lane Key Statistics: 2 Bed, 2 Bath 864 SQFT Key Statistics: 2 Bed, 1 Bath 832 SQFT Sold: 10/22/13 True Days on Market: 35 Sold: $225,591 % of Original Asking : 92.1% Sold: 10/25/13 True Days on Market: 40 Sold: $271,000 % of Original Asking : 100% Want a big discount on a fresh listing? Cash is king. This unit was super clean and had nice investment potential. Not a spectacular location but vacancies are running below 1% at the moment. Under contract in 21 days. Boom! Shanahan Ridge is attractive for proximity to open space and beautiful view corridors. Most of the units are horribly inefficient but that can be improved. The community is excellent. This was a bankruptcy sale and under contract in FOUR days. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 Ooh La, La 720 Pearl Street #3b Key Statistics: 3 Bed, 4 Bath 2,031 SQFT Sold: 10/7/2013 True Days On Market: 1,000+ Sold: $1,506,400 % of Original Asking : NM Awesome location, steps from the heart of downtown. Hard to tell what happened to the builder on this one. The project was supposed to be done more than a year ago. Technically it sold for more than asking, but likely due to finishes or changes in design. 19
  • 19. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Lessons from the Trenches • The 4th Quarter is usually bargain season. Not this year. Record low inventory is pushing prices upward and fueling intense bidding wars. • Negotiation Tip: Sellers should allow ample time for all potential buyers to see the property before considering offers. Good listing agents can use bidding wars to not only obtain maximum price but to negotiate away contract contingencies. • Strong offers are much more than just about the price. There are many ways a contract element can be used to strengthen your offer. A good buyer’s agent can assist you in increasing your chances of getting the house in a competitive marketplace. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 20
  • 20. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Read Up! Recent Articles From Our Blog Psst. Shop My Buyers and Sellers. Nuisance Patrol [Due Diligence] Coming Out [Authenticity] Fresh Listings, Get ‘Em Hot Sales Roundup – High End Seriously, Which Floor? [Analysis] Sales Roundup – Entry and Investment Grade Louisville Market Analysis Image: brett l HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 21
  • 21. HOUSE EINSTEIN MARKET RESEARCH : NOVEMBER 2013 Get A Great Deal • Buying and selling real estate is one of life’s largest financial decisions. Not just an important investment, but where families and friends will gather for many years and memories will be made. Make a smarter decision, get a professional adviser. • At Realty Unique, we strive to add value and earn our commission. Give us a call. We can advise you on current market conditions, help you find your dream home, or get the most value from the sale of your property. • We work with many buyers – long time residents and those relocating to Boulder. With our unique buyer preview service, we make it easy to track the market from near or far. Call for more details. HouseEinstein.com ph: 303 746 6896 22