Seismic Hazard Analysis 2


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Seismic Hazard Analysis 2

  1. 1. Introduction to Seismology Seismic Hazard Analysis 2 Department of Earth Sciences KFUPM Ali Oncel [email_address] Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  2. 2. <ul><li>Seismic source characterization </li></ul><ul><li>Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source </li></ul><ul><li>Selection of ground motion attenuation models </li></ul><ul><li>Quantification of the seismic hazard </li></ul>Sari and Manuel Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM log( N) M RECURRENCE Probability of exceedance Acceleration SEISMIC HAZARD CURVES F 2 F 1 Faults (line sources) Area source SOURCE MODELS pga, S a , A i GROUND MOTION ATTENUATION distance SEISMIC HAZARD MAP
  3. 3. PART 1: SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  4. 4. From Koji Okumura
  5. 5. Rupture zones for large historical earthquakes along the North and East Anatolian faults (Ambraseys & Finkel, 1988; Ambraseys & Finkel, 1995; Barka, 1992; Ikeda et al., 1991) from Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM 1254 967 1784 1668 1035 1050 1043 From Koji Okumura
  6. 6. Both walls Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM east west First multi-event trench on the North Anatolian fault Koji Okumura
  7. 8. Magnitude area relations Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  8. 9. Magnitude scales: Body wave magnitude (Mb) Richter magnitude (ML) Surface wave magnitude (Ms) Moment magnitude (Mw) Catalogs: Preliminary Determination of Earthquakes (PDE) International Seismic Centre (ISC) Local catalogs (Ambraseys) EARTHQUAKE CATALOGS Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  9. 10. Magnitude saturation Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  10. 11. NEIC: Earthquake Search Results                                                                                                          Rectangular Grid Search Latitude Range: 39 to 41.5 Longitude Range: 27.25 to 31 Number of Earthquakes: 3468   Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  11. 12. <ul><li>Development of one catalog from several catalogs </li></ul><ul><li>Declustering </li></ul><ul><li>Use of Catalog </li></ul><ul><li>Calculation of Gutenberg-Richter a and b-values </li></ul><ul><li>Smooth seismicity model (background) </li></ul><ul><li>Comparison with model rates of seismicity </li></ul>Developing uniform catalog: Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  12. 13. 1. Characteristic a. Assess magnitude of potential earthquakes (segmentation, floating) b. Calculate recurrence of earthquake= moment of char earthquake/moment rate of fault = rigidity*area*displacement/rigidity*area*slip rate rigidity modulus (resistance to shearing motion used in U.S. is 3.0 X 10exp11 gm/cm*s*s(dynes/cm*cm ) 2. Truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution a. log N=a-b M MAGNITUDE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM Log of no. of earthquakes >=M Magnitude (M) Magnitude (M) Characteristic Gutenberg-Richter
  13. 14. Assumes that where smaller magnitude earthquakes have occurred in the past is where larger earthquakes will occur in the future. Smoothed Seismicity Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
  14. 15. Quiz of the Week <ul><li>For Central Arabian Graben Zone, seismicity parameters are given as: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a=4.02 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>b= 0.65 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mmax=6.2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Considering the regional maximum magnitude (6.2), calculate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The frequency of M6.2? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The recurrence period of M6.2? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Earthquake Probability of M6.2 for 50 yrs? </li></ul></ul>P(t)= 1-e -t/T Equations Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM
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