A RESEARCH WORK ONTHE EFFECTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS ON AVIATION FLIGHT SCHEDULES AND OPERATIONS BY AKANDE SAMUEL OLUMIDE Centre for Space Research and Applications FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, AKURE ONDO STATE, NIGERIA firstname.lastname@example.org +234-7032320763
INTRODUCTIONAviation plays a major role in today’s social and economic scenarios.It offers a quick, reliable and safe way of taking people to their destination, for business reasons, holidays or family visits.Even after a century of flight, weather is still the factor most likely to result in accidents with fatalities.An increasing demand for air travel is the first challenge to the future of air transport.
A flight delay is a delay in which an airline CAUSES flight takes off and/or lands later than its Maintenance problems scheduled time. A flight is considered Crew problems delayed when it is 15 minutes later than its Aircraft cleaning scheduled time. (Hauke et al, 2001) Baggage loading Occasional delays are part of air travel today. Fueling Much as we dislike delays, they are yet unavoidable, even in the well-run airlines. Extreme weather Congestion in air traffic Security issues
Aviation weather hazards do not only unleash its impact on aircrafts in flights but also affects those packed at the Aerodromes. Therefore, a good knowledge of this subject matter becomes very important to Aircraft operators, pilots and flight crew members Should the safety of lives and properties be ensured and risks reduced to the barest minimum. The great increase in air traffic has led to a large increase in the demand for airport capacity. Also, the months of May to October are months of the rainy season, characterized by severe thunderstorms and line squalls and its attendant turbulence, microbursts and lighting.
AIMTo examine the various weather hazards that affect the effective flight operation in the aviation industry.OBJECTIVESo study the weather approach to problems of flight delays and cancellation.To analyse the weather parameters that likely affects the smooth flight operations.To see if by human efforts, air crashes due to natural (weather) hazards such as thunderstorms, wind shear, precipitation can be mitigated.
The study area for this report is the Murtala Mohammed International Airport , Ikeja, Lagos State, Nigeria. It lies between latitude 6021I11II N and longitude 3023I44II E. It is the busiest airport in Nigeria. It is the major airport serving the city of Lagos, Southwestern Nigeria and the entire nation, with an average of 300 aircraft movements a day. It caters for more than 5 million a year. Lagos state is a coastal state bounded to the south by the Atlantic Ocean and the other sides by neighboring states. Total % freight Total Aircraft Year Passengers Increase (tons) Movements 2003 3362464 51826 62439 2004 3576189 6 89496 67208 2005 3817338 6.3 63807 70893 2006 3848757 0.8 83598 74650 2007 4162424 7.5 81537 2008 5136920 23.4 77472 2009 5644572 9.9 84588 2010 6273454 11.1 96919 2011 6748290 7.6 105215
• Flight delay is a complex phenomenon, because it can be due to problems at the origin airport, at the destination airport, or during airborne.• Flight schedules are often subjected to irregularity. Due to the tight connection among airlines resources, delays could dramatically propagate over time and space unless the proper recovery actions are taken. (Wu, 2005).• In addition, there are general arrival and departure delays. This usually indicates that arrival traffic is doing airborne holding or departing traffic is experiencing longer than normal taxi times or holding at the gate. These could be due to a number of reasons, including thunderstorms in the area, a high departure demand, or a runway change. (Aisling and Kenneth, 1999).
WEATHER HAZARDS ON FLIGHT OPERATIONS REDUCED (POOR) VISIBILITYFog It forms over land usually under clear skies and light winds typically after midnight and peaks early in the morning. After sunrise, the fog begins to burn off from the edges over land.Precipitation Rain can reduce visibility; however, the restriction is seldom less than one mile other than in the heaviest showers beneath cumulonimbus clouds. Drizzle, because of the greater number of drops in each volume of air, is usually more effective than rain at reducing the visibility, especially when accompanied by fog.
Wind Shear Wind shear is a change in wind direction and/or wind speed over the distance between two points. If the points are in a vertical direction then it is called vertical shear, if they are in a horizontal direction than it is called horizontal shear. In the aviation world, the major concern is how abruptly the change occurs. Depending on the aircraft type, it may take a significant time to correct the situation, placing the aircraft in peril, particularly during takeoff and landing.Turbulence Turbulence is the direct result of wind shear. The stronger the shear the greater the tendency for the laminar flow of the air to break down into eddies resulting in turbulence.
DATA USED METHODOLOGY The data collected for the The Histograms were plotted for the use of the study is known as data from the divisions in Aircraft Daily Flight Schedule Report. operations. This is to show the frequent occurrence of factors This data was collected from responsible for the problems of flight operations data unit of flight operations. AIR NIGERIA AIRWAYS, ikeja, Lagos State. The data ranges Also, line graphs, showing the relationship between some weather between May-October 2011 parameters(rainfall, windspeed, and and May-October 2012. thunderstorm) that also contributes The meteorological data used to problems of flight operations. were collected from the The monthly means of these Nigeria Meteorological parameters were used for the Agency, Ikeja office, Lagos. analysis for the period of my stay on Industrial Training (May-October).
18 16 14.29 14 13.19 Percentage of Delays 12.09 2011 12 10.99 10.99 9.89 9.89 2012 10 8 6 4.4 4 3.3 3.3 3.3 2.2 2.2 2 0 0 0 Divisions in Aircraft Operations Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (MAY) 18 16.16 16 15.15 14.14 14 12 2011 10.1Percentage of Delays 10 2012 8.08 8.08 8 6.06 6 5.05 4.04 4.04 4.04 4 3.03 2.02 2 0 0 0 Divisions in Aircraft Operations Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (JUNE)
20 18.68 18 16 Percentage of Delays 13.19 13.19 2011 14 12 10.99 2012 9.89 10 8.79 7.69 7.69 8 5.49 6 4 3.3 2 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 Divisions in Aircraft Operations Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (JULY) 20 18.25 18 15.87 16Percentage of Delays 14.29 13.49 14 12 2011 10.32 10 2012 7.94 8 6.35 5.56 6 4 2.38 2.38 1.59 1.59 2 0 0 0 0 Divisions in Aircraft Operations Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations(AUGUST)
18 15.7 16 14.53 2011 Percentage of Delays 14 11.63 2012 12 11.05 9.2 9.65 10 8.14 8 6.4 6.98 6 3.49 4 1.74 1.5 2 0 0 0 0 Divisions in Aircraft Operations Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (SEPT) 18 16 14.29 14 12.99 11.69 2011 12 10.39 9.96 2012 10Percentage of Delays 8 6.49 6.49 6.93 5.19 5.63 6 4 3.46 2.16 2.6 1.73 2 0 0 Divisions in Aircraft Operations Graph of Percentage Delays from Divisions in Aircraft Operations (OCT.)
210 19 200 18.5 190 18 180 17.5 170 17RAINFALL (mm) 160 16.5 RR Th 150 16 140 15.5 130 15 120 14.5 110 14 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Rainfall (2011) 200 22 190 21 180 20 RAINFALL (mm) 170 19 160 18 150 17 RR 140 16 Th 130 15 120 14 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Rainfall (2012)
3.15 19 3.1 18.5 3.05 18 17.5WIND SPEED (m/s) 3 17 2.95 16.5 2.9 16 Wind 2.85 15.5 Th 2.8 15 2.75 14.5 2.7 14 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Windspeed (2011) 3.1 21.5 20.5 3 19.5 2.9 18.5WIND SPEED (m/s) 2.8 17.5 Wind 2.7 16.5 Th 2.6 15.5 2.5 14.5 MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT Line Graph of Variation between Thunderstorm and Windspeed (2012)
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The graphs 1-6 which shows the number of delays with their respective delay reasons, there were some delay reasons that had low number of delays while some has a high number of delays. The months of July and August, 2012 recorded the highest percentage delays due to weather with amounting to 18.68% and 18.25% respectively. Thus, there was an upward trend in the percentage which implies that there were delays and flight operation problems due to bad weather. The Graphs 7-10 show the weather effects on delays caused by thunderstorms, wind speed and rainfall which are the weather variables considered. These then show that in most cases, an increase in thunderstorm occurrence leads to an increase in the rainfall occurrence (as well as rainfall amount). Also, an increase in the win speed also corresponds to an increase in the thunderstorms
CONCLUSIONFrom May to October, the percentage and the numbers of delays due to weather hazards show that the issue of delays due to weather hazards is to be taken with utmost seriousness.In conclusion, weather hazards are one of the significant factors of flight operations, therefore pilots and aviation managers needs to have the knowledge of weather hazards integrated into flight operational guidelines.
NIMET should be issuing a comprehensive daily weather report before the daily flight scheduled are been planned. The Government should embark on projects to improve weather study and acquire weather equipment that would ensure that pilots are kept abreast of weather information at any time. The Government should provide the Federal Airport Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) the installation of MeteoSat Second Generation (MSG) ground receiver; installation of thunderstorm detectors; construction of Weather Forecasting and Climate research Centre. Also the construction as procurement and installation of Doppler Weather Radars (DWR); installation of low-level wind shear alert system (LLWAS) at the two wings of the airports; procurement and installation of Upper Air sounding equipment.