Creating Sustainable Behaviour, for Forum for the Future Master's scholars and placement businesses

Forum for the Future: Creating sustainable behaviour Thursday April 15th 2010 Oliver Payne, Founder, CEO, The Hunting Dynasty [email_address] , For Forum for the Future Scholars and fellow Sustainability Professionals, As part of the Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption exploration

“… despite being generally capable and smart, we are highly context dependent.”

Jack Fuller, Australian research group Per Capita Research

What does this mean?
We are not purely rational beings

What does this mean?
We are not purely rational beings
That doesn’t mean we are irrational
(and therefore unmeasureable)

12. Irrational escalation: the tendency to make irrational decisions based upon rational decisions in the past, or to justify actions already taken. The dollar auction is a thought exercise demonstrating the concept. 13. Loss aversion: the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size. 14. Endowment effect: the tendency to demand much more to give up an object than you would be willing to pay to acquire it. The Duke University basketball ticket experiment (a combination of loss aversion and the endowment effect = Status quo bias ) 15. Neglect of probability: the tendency to disregard probabilities for absolutes when making a decision under uncertainty. 16. ‘Not Invented Here’: the tendency to ignore an idea or solution because its source is seen as unfamiliar. 17. Planning fallacy: the tendency to underestimate the time it takes to complete tasks. 18. Post-purchase rationalisation: the tendency to rationalise your purchases as ‘good buys’ merely based on the fact that you purchased them – and the reason why a 110% money back guarantee works. 19. Pseudo-certainty effect/Gambler’s fallacy: the tendency, when seeking positive outcomes, to make only risk-averse choices; but to make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 20. Selective perception: the tendency for expectations to shape perceptions. 21. Wishful thinking: the formation of beliefs according to what is pleasant to imagine rather than based on evidence or rationality. 22. Zero-risk bias: the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk. 23. Self-serving bias ( Illusory superiority/better-than-average effect ) occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control.
1. Aversion to extremes: the tendency to avoid extremes, to prefer a choice simply because it is the middle-ground option. Consumers Avoid Extremes In Soda Sizes
2. Bandwagoning or herd instinct: the tendency to do (or believe) things simply because other people do.
3. Choice-supportive bias: the tendency to remember your own choices as better than they actually were.
4. Conservatism bias : the tendency to ignore the consequences and implications of new evidence.
5. Contrast effect: the tendency to perceive measurements of an object differently when comparing them with a recently observed contrasting object.
6. Distinction bias: the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when viewing them together than when viewing them separately.
7. Excessive temporal discounting/ hyperbolic discounting : the tendency for people to have excessively stronger preferences for immediate gains relative to future gains.
8. Exposure effect: the tendency for people to like things simply because they are familiar with them.
9. Framing effects: the tendency to draw different conclusions based on how data are presented.
Anchoring
Mental accounting (current income, current wealth, future income – different marginal propensity to consume, eg: extra 1, spend 0.65)
10. Scarcity value: When we perceive something to be scarce it has a greater value in our eyes. Conversely, when we perceive it to be plentiful its perceived value falls. When valuing things, circumstantial factors tend to crowd out factors that point towards absolute value.
11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.

12. Irrational escalation: the tendency to make irrational decisions based upon rational decisions in the past, or to justify actions already taken. The dollar auction is a thought exercise demonstrating the concept. 13. Loss aversion: the tendency to fear losses more than to value gains of equal size. 14. Endowment effect: the tendency to demand much more to give up an object than you would be willing to pay to acquire it. The Duke University basketball ticket experiment (a combination of loss aversion and the endowment effect = Status quo bias ) 15. Neglect of probability: the tendency to disregard probabilities for absolutes when making a decision under uncertainty. 16. ‘Not Invented Here’: the tendency to ignore an idea or solution because its source is seen as unfamiliar. 17. Planning fallacy: the tendency to underestimate the time it takes to complete tasks. 18. Post-purchase rationalisation: the tendency to rationalise your purchases as ‘good buys’ merely based on the fact that you purchased them – and the reason why a 110% money back guarantee works. 19. Pseudo-certainty effect/Gambler’s fallacy: the tendency, when seeking positive outcomes, to make only risk-averse choices; but to make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. 20. Selective perception: the tendency for expectations to shape perceptions. 21. Wishful thinking: the formation of beliefs according to what is pleasant to imagine rather than based on evidence or rationality. 22. Zero-risk bias: the preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk. 23. Self-serving bias ( Illusory superiority/better-than-average effect ) occurs when people attribute their successes to internal or personal factors but attribute their failures to situational factors beyond their control.
1. Aversion to extremes: the tendency to avoid extremes, to prefer a choice simply because it is the middle-ground option. Consumers Avoid Extremes In Soda Sizes
2. Bandwagoning or herd instinct: the tendency to do (or believe) things simply because other people do.
3. Choice-supportive bias: the tendency to remember your own choices as better than they actually were.
4. Conservatism bias : the tendency to ignore the consequences and implications of new evidence.
5. Contrast effect: the tendency to perceive measurements of an object differently when comparing them with a recently observed contrasting object.
6. Distinction bias: the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when viewing them together than when viewing them separately.
7. Excessive temporal discounting/ hyperbolic discounting : the tendency for people to have excessively stronger preferences for immediate gains relative to future gains.
8. Exposure effect: the tendency for people to like things simply because they are familiar with them.
9. Framing effects: the tendency to draw different conclusions based on how data are presented.
Anchoring
Mental accounting (current income, current wealth, future income – different marginal propensity to consume, eg: extra 1, spend 0.65)
10. Scarcity value: When we perceive something to be scarce it has a greater value in our eyes. Conversely, when we perceive it to be plentiful its perceived value falls. When valuing things, circumstantial factors tend to crowd out factors that point towards absolute value.
11. Social norms: the rules that a group uses for appropriate and inappropriate values, beliefs, attitudes and behaviors. These rules may be explicit or implicit. Failure to follow the rules can result in severe punishments, including exclusion from the group.
How do you use these quirks to create sustainable behaviour?

1. Simply ask

2. Ask using the right words

3. Ask using the right images

4. Ask using the right authority

5. Ask using the right fake authority

6. Ask in the right order

7. Ask at the right time

8. Ask with the right incentive

9. Add options

10. Take away options

11. Ask, but have a default option

12. Ask a completely different question

13. Let the feedback ask the question

14. Don’t ask. ( Tell .)

15. Ask nothing, other than simply to measure

16. Don’t ask anything – other than to go public

17. Ask for a commitment – in the future

18. Ask kinetically

19. Make the question irrelevant

1. Simply ask

1. Simply ask
a. What can I get you sir?
When asked nothing while in a queue for food
40% of students took a serving of fruit
Yale University researcher Marlene Schwartz in a 2007 study

1. Simply ask
When asked if they would ‘ like fruit or fruit juice’
Yale University researcher Marlene Schwartz in a 2007 study

1. Simply ask
When asked if they would ‘ like fruit or fruit juice’
Yale University researcher Marlene Schwartz in a 2007 study Exposure effect

a. Insulating expectation

Sutton council worked with B&Q to made 6,000 rolls of loft insulation available at massively reduced prices


“ [A] very simple step to make their homes more carbon efficient and to save on their bills” Daniel Ratchford -Strategic Director, Environment & Leisure, Sutton Council


“ [A] very simple step to make their homes more carbon efficient and to save on their bills” Daniel Ratchford -Strategic Director, Environment & Leisure, Sutton Council Social norms Authority effect

b. Smile, you’re on camera
South Lanarkshire Council speed signs show numeral and ‘smiley face’ or ‘sad face’ icon according to driver’s speed

Speeding fallen by 53%

Social norms (approval) We’re sensitive to whether our actions are being observed by others… even if no one is actually watching.

b. Expend very little energy
Two groups given information about their neighbourhood energy use
Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg Straight info about energy use Straight info and smiley/sad face

Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg High users reduced consumption Low users increased consumption High users reduced consumption Low users consistent consumption David Cameron’s 30 second description | TED 2010

Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg 40% more energy saved High users reduced consumption Low users increased consumption High users reduced consumption Low users consistent consumption

Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org Group A 10 mpg Group B 25 mpg 40% more energy saved High users reduced consumption Low users increased consumption High users reduced consumption Low users consistent consumption Social norms (approval)

9. Add options

a. Three’s a crowd
The decoy effect in action:

9. Add options Rome (all expenses paid) Voting Yea for the Decoys | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger


9. Add options Rome (all expenses paid) Paris (all expenses paid) Voting Yea for the Decoys | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger ?


9. Add options Rome (all expenses paid) Paris (all expenses paid) Rome (all expenses paid except morning espresso) Voting Yea for the Decoys | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger ?


9. Add options Rome (all expenses paid) Paris (all expenses paid) Rome (all expenses paid except morning espresso) Voting Yea for the Decoys | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger “… when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick…” Washinton Post, Shankar Vedantam 1/2

9. Add options

Hybrid car (Used) Small-engine petrol car (Used) Hybrid car (New) “… when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick…” Washinton Post, Shankar Vedantam Voting Yea for the Decoys | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger 1/2

9. Add options

Hybrid car (Used) Small-engine petrol car (Used) Hybrid car (New) “… when people cannot decide between two front-runners, they use the third candidate as a sort of measuring stick…” Washinton Post, Shankar Vedantam Framing effect Voting Yea for the Decoys | Consumerology | December 11th, 2009 by Julie Adelsberger Distinction bias Decoy effect 1/2

Catering for a conference
A conference experimented with their default menu options : one year they offered meat as default, the next year vegetarian
When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner? | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com Vegetarian Meat

When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner? | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 83 % 17 % Vegetarian = option Meat = default

When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner? | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 20 % 80 % Vegetarian = default Meat = option

“ Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to vegans…” Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, conference chair, Pre American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner? | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 80 % Vegetarian = default

“ Omnivores contribute seven times the greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to vegans…” Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, conference chair, Pre American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy When Behavioral Economics Meets Climate Change, Guess What's Coming for Dinner? | Marc Gunther | climatebiz.com 80 % Framing effect Vegetarian = default

c. A ball of energy
They tried an Ambient Orb – a
personal energy meter in the
shape of a little ball:
It glows red when people are using lots of energy
It glows green when their use is modest.
Chicago Tribune | A gentle prod to go green

c. A ball of energy
Within weeks users of the orb
reduced their energy consumption
during peak times by 40%
Chicago Tribune | A gentle prod to go green

c. A ball of energy
Within weeks users of the orb
reduced their energy consumption
during peak times by 40%
Chicago Tribune | A gentle prod to go green (Your bike is hot | Carbon Diem) Loss aversion Social norms

a. Towel reuse
In an upscale hotel in Phoenix, USA one of these cards was placed in guestrooms urging towel reuse:
1. Help Save The Environment – (respect for nature)
2. Help Save Resources For Future Generations – (saving energy)
3. Partner With Us To Help Save The Environment – (co-operate)
4. Join Your Fellow Citizens In Helping To Save The Environment – (what other guest do in that room)
US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education :: September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge

a. Towel reuse
US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education :: September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge Only this message reinforces a social norm

a. Towel reuse
US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education :: September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge Guests exposed to this message were 34% more likely to recycle their towels

a. Towel reuse
US Government Subcommittee on Research & Science Education :: September 25, 2007 The Contribution of the Social Sciences to the Energy Challenge Guests exposed to this message were 34% more likely to recycle their towels Social norms

b. Tax doesn’t have to be taxing (no, really)
In Australia, tax-payers were informed that normal practice was honesty in tax returns
HEADS, YOU DIE: Bad decisions, choice architecture, and how to mitigate predictable irrationality | Jack Fuller | Per Capita research

Deductions plunged by 47%
(over $800 million Aus$ extra revenue)
HEADS, YOU DIE: Bad decisions, choice architecture, and how to mitigate predictable irrationality | Jack Fuller | Per Capita research

Deductions plunged by 47%
(over $800 million Aus$ extra revenue)
HEADS, YOU DIE: Bad decisions, choice architecture, and how to mitigate predictable irrationality | Jack Fuller | Per Capita research Social norms

Competitive Dad
When a Jeep driver got a Prius he became fixated with stretching his
mileage as far as possible
For Hybrid Drivers, Every Trip Is a Race for Fuel Efficiency | Washington Post | 2008

Competitive Dad
His record is 57.4 mpg
More than double the 27.5 mpg that non-hybrid cars are required to deliver under US law
For Hybrid Drivers, Every Trip Is a Race for Fuel Efficiency | Washington Post | 2008

Competitive Dad
His record is 57.4 mpg
More than double the 27.5 mpg that non-hybrid cars are required to deliver under US law
“ It has totally changed my driving in that for the first time I’m completely cognizant of how the car works.”
(Washington Post)
For Hybrid Drivers, Every Trip Is a Race for Fuel Efficiency | Washington Post | 2008 (Hawthorne) Loss aversion

Who’s doing it? 3/4

“ One remarkable note about both the hotel towel messages and the utility smiley faces: neither approach had ever been tried by the industries… Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org

Until now

Smart measuring technology Take a fee for collating and presenting supply data to existing utility companies’ customers

Multi-channel Engagement
Lots of opportunities to ‘tweak’ behaviour

Are the results any good?

Real results where OPOWER Home Energy Reporting system has been implemented, it has consistently and predictably delivered between 1.5% and 3.5% in average energy savings across the entire targeted population

Popular interest Finalist for Discovery Channel's 2010 Edison Awards CEO's live interview on Fox Business Featured in USA Today In Washington Post as "best example of climate psychology in action"

Powerful interest David Cameron, highlights OPOWER at TED2010 “The next age of government” President Obama speaks at OPOWER, Arlington “ I want companies like OPOWER to be expanding and thriving all across America. It’s good for consumers. It’s good for our economy. It’s good for our environment.”

Are behavioural communications expensive to implement?

“ It’s the least capital-intensive way of making change. I’m speaking of both kinds of capital here: financial and social.”
Dr. Robert Cialdini, ex-Regents' Professor of Psychology and Marketing Arizona State University
Never mind what people believe—how can we change what they do? A chat with Robert Cialdini
Financial capital
1. Technological solutions
Expensive to implement
Expensive to run
2. Incentive programs
Expensive to run
As soon as they’re discontinued the behavior flops back
Social capital
1. Legislative solutions
Lengthy to implement
Punitative in nature
2. Taxes/penalties
Punishes without offering solution

Is there a desire for it?

Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org “ … most of the company’s efforts toward conservation have been tied to infrastructure and hardware… ‘changing consumer behavior is the next wave of savings that needs to be tapped.’ ” Grist.org/Tim Stout, VP of energy efficiency [Massachusetts utility] National Grid

Making buildings more efficient: It helps to understand human behavior | Grist.org “ … most of the company’s efforts toward conservation have been tied to infrastructure and hardware… ‘changing consumer behavior is the next wave of savings that needs to be tapped.’” Grist.org/Tim Stout, VP of energy efficiency [Massachusetts utility] National Grid

Let’s review

Review
19 ways to ‘ask’ for sustainable behaviour

Review
Opower using the utility bill smiley faces

Review
Lots of interest "best example of climate psychology in action” Washington Post

Review
Cameron & Obama vocal supporters

Review
Cialdini says ‘least capital intensive… change’ (and persistent)

Review
Cialdini says ‘least capital intensive… change’ (and persistent)
Utility VP Stout says consumer behaviour is ‘next wave of savings’

Takeaway: 3 most common non-rational behaviours

3 most common non-rational behaviours
Framing
( Drawing different conclusions based on how data are presented )
Conference meal, Decoy cars

Framing
Loss Aversion
(The pain of loss twice as bad as the pleasure of gain)
Ambient orb, competitive dad

Framing
Loss Aversion
Social norms
(No one wants to be the weirdo)
Opower, Ambient orb, towels, tax, B&Q/M&S

Framing
Loss Aversion
Social norms
(No one wants to be the weirdo)
Opower, Ambient orb, towels, tax, B&Q/M&S
4.Scarcity value Louis IV potatoes 5.Goal dilution Tennis balls 6. Chunking Drugs colour 7. Price perception Violinist

“… despite being generally capable and smart, we are highly context dependent.”

Jack Fuller, Australian research group Per Capita Research

Thank you

http://www.thehuntingdynasty.com	36
http://www.slideshare.net	13
http://blog.mydigitalfootprint.com	7
http://paper.li	7
http://us-w1.rockmelt.com	1
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com	1
http://www.mydigitalfootprint.com	1

Creating Sustainable Behaviour, for Forum for the Future Master's scholars and placement businesses

by The Hunting Dynasty on Apr 19, 2010

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

7 Embeds 66

Statistics

Creating Sustainable Behaviour, for Forum for the Future Master’s scholars and placement businesses — Presentation Transcript