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Demography and the Market

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  • 1. InternationalPolitical AnalysisNewDemographyImage: FIFTYMM69 EN FLICKR2013+OlgaGilolgagil@olgagil.es
  • 2. • Global Economic Trends• Emerging Market Multinationals• New Demography: aging, migration, obesity• Dictatorship, Democracy, failed States• Inequality and Poverty• Sustainability• Global Powers• Uncertainty and Complexity• Life expectancyGlobalChalleges&TurningPoints NewDemography
  • 3. GlobalChalleges&TurningPointsNew Demography: aging, migration, obesity
  • 4. Aging: First Time in HistoryCountries with inverted age pyramids• Age composition of the population is transitioning to an olderstructure in all regions of the world• Older population (aged 60 years or over) is growing at anaccelerated rate• Growth of the older population will take place in the lessdeveloped regions: 8 out of 10 older persons will live in the lessdeveloped regions by 2050• The older population itself is ageing.• Older persons will outnumber children by mid-centuryNewDemography
  • 5. Aging: First Time in HistoryCountries with inverted age pyramidsLess developed regionsSource: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population DivisionNewDemography
  • 6. Aging: First Time in HistoryCountries with inverted age pyramidsMore developed countriesSource: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population DivisionNewDemography
  • 7. Aging Population by broad age group1950-2050Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population DivisionNewDemography
  • 8. Benefits of Ageing• People are living longer• Older persons make important financialcontributions to their familiesIn the majority of more developed and developing countries, older persons arenet providers of financial transfers to their children and grandchildren. In somedeveloped countries such as Austria and the United States, older persons donot become net receivers of private transfers even into the advanced olderages. In countries such as Brazil, Costa Rica and Japan, older persons begin tobe net receivers of private transfers only after they are well into their seventiesor older. Some Asian countries such as Thailand and the Republic of Korea areexceptions, as adults in their sixties begin to receive net transfers from theirchildren.NewDemography
  • 9. Benefits of Ageing• Older persons contribute significantlyto the global economy. At the world level, theproportion of women aged 65 years or over in the labour force, grewfrom 10 per cent in 1990 to 13 per cent and is expected to reach 14 percent in 2020• Older persons living independently. Forty per centof the world’s older population live independently, that is, either aloneor with the spouse only. Living independently is the dominant livingarrangement of older persons in the more developed regions, wherealmost three quarters of older persons live independently. Almost halfof older women living independently live alone. By contrast, only aminority of older men live alone.NewDemography
  • 10. Aging: Elder peopleProportion living independently (alone or withspouse only) among persons aged 60 years orover by sex: world and development regionsSource: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs • Population DivisionNewDemography
  • 11. AgingSocial Protection• Fewer working-age adults are supporting anincreasing number of older persons. Working-ageadults provide the bulk of the contributions to finance social security programsand familial transfers for the older population. The “old-age support ratio”, thenumber of persons aged 15 to 64 years per person aged 65 years or over, hasbeen falling in tandem with population ageing.• In many countries, older persons lackadequate social protection: higher povertyincidence than the general population.NewDemography
  • 12. GlobalChalleges&TurningPointsNew Demography Migration
  • 13. Migration• Increase in international migrants: from 155 millionin 1990, to 214 million in 2010.• 3 % of world’s population and counting internalmigrants over 10 %• Immigrants increase productive capacity of theeconomy and contribute to economic growth.• Large increase in migrants moving from less tomore developed countries•Attractiveness of the global South. New poles ofeconomic activity: China, Brazil, India.NewDemography
  • 14. Migration Challenges• Population health, with focus on health spanningthe entire life course.• ¼ of the world population do not have adequatehousing (UN-Habitat)• Urbanization. Trend in the southChina 37 % urbanIndia 29 % “60 megacities in the world by 2015Only four in most advanced world: Tokio, Los Angeles, NY, Osaka-Kobe-KiotoAfrica 53% urban, expected by 2030NewDemography
  • 15. Migration ChallengesWorld Cities with over 1 million migrantsNewDemographyMore info: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/gcmm.cfm
  • 16. Migration ChallengesWorld Cities with over 25% foreign residentsNewDemographyMore info: http://www.migrationinformation.org/datahub/gcmm.cfm
  • 17. GlobalChalleges&TurningPointsDramatic rise in last 10 years• 300 M in 2005 to 1,1 Bn• 1,5 Bn expected in 2015• Increasing among lower statusgroups• Increasing among groups thathave not made the nutritionaltransition to western diet• British Heart Foundation: 2/3 ofBritish obese or overweighted• Algeria, Botswana, South Africa,Cuba, Haiti, Guatemala, Peru,Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Syria,Tunisia, North Korea, Mongoliaamong most affectedObesityPhoto source:
  • 18. +19+17Aging, Migration, ObesityWorld GDP 2020+7,5NewDemography
  • 19. New Demography: aging, migration, obesityHow do these trends affect themultinational firm you have chosen?NewDemography
  • 20. World Population and ProductsNewDemographyHans Rosling talk Global Population Growth Box by Boxhttp://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html
  • 21. Three stories from IndiaNew products with a shifting focus: value for the many. Remaking expensive products to adapt tonew mass markets- Main points for discussion- Apply ideas from the stories to your case(multinational)New international context: Aging, migration, obesityHow do we address value for many?
  • 22. Three stories by R.A. Mashelkar from IndiaNew products with a sifhting focus: value for the many. Remaking expensive products to adapt tonew mass marketsNew international context: Aging, migration, obesityHow do we address value for many?http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/es/r_a_mashelkar_breakthrough_designs_for_ultra_low_cost_products.html
  • 23. New Demography: aging, migration, obesity• Discuss in group ideas for your case –brought about from the presentation• Discussion in the classNewDemography
  • 24. QuestionsOlga Gil, Ph.D.olgagil@olgagil.esTwitter olgag and TicWisdom

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