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Technology And Products
 

Technology And Products

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Lecture on technology and how it evolves

Lecture on technology and how it evolves

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    Technology And Products Technology And Products Presentation Transcript

    • Technology and Products “Everything that can be invented has been invented” - Purportedly said by Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology revolutions have this remarkable ability of being nearly invisible but yet so obvious right in front us. Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Sustaining Technology  Gradual Improvements – Foster improved product performance – Each year new and improved products are offered Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • What is Technology? Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Why study technology? Do we know what technology is? All technology was once new History can remind us what technology is Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The word “technology” was coined by Jacob Bigelow, an engineering professor at Cambridge University in Boston, in 1829 – Techne is greek for art or skill – logosis greek for word, speech Source: Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology Process by which an organization transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Product Performance The value you get out of a product for which you have paid some cost Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Product Performance Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Innovation The change in the technology Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Innovation Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • How does technology change? Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology Factory  Tomas Edison’s Menlo Park – World’s first first industrial research lab – 1876-1881 “I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Long Nose of Innovation Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.ht m Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Long Nose of Technology Douglas Englebart 1965 Apple Machintosh 1984 Source: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/187881/Douglas-Engelbart Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Any technology that is going to have significant impact over the next 10 years is already at least 10 years old Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.ht m Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Diffusion of Innovation Innovation grows in three stages 1. Slow growth – The early phase of exponential growth 2. Rapid growth – The late explosive phase of exponential growth 3. A leveling off as the particular paradigm matures Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology S-Curve Based on the notion of Technology Life Cycle – Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology Performance Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology S-Curve Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-curves where each curve is faster Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology S-Curve Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology Life Cycle Life of technology follows the life cycle In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand Technology Small percentage of the market In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology Adoption Life Cycle Adoption of technology follows the life cycle Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • What makes a product good so that people will adopt it? Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • VisiCalc Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Enrico Caruso 1873-1921 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Edison Phonograph Victor Talking Machine’s Victrola Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technological change is relatively easy Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • It’s the social, organizational and cultural change that is hard Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Crossing the Chasm The change in customers as technology matures Crossing the chasm – or the Tipping point Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Geoffrey A. Moore: Crossing the chasm
    • What triggers the tipping point? Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Theory of Predicting the Future  Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future – All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives – Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are: 1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • What caused the tipping point for the iPod? Apple said it sold a record 22.7 million iPods, which commands a 70% share of the U.S. market for music players. (source: LA times) Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology Life Cycle When will the early majority pragmatics start buying a product? The value of the product is sufficiently great or good-enough Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology Life Cycle Early in the cycle, technology is important When technology becomes good enough – Value becomes more important – Technology is no longer the variable that controls purchases – Improvements loose their glamour – Customers are looking for things like value convenience, productivity, ease-of-use, low-cost, reliability – Emotions Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Life Cycle of Technology The move from Technology to Commodity The need-satisfaction curve of technology Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Market of Commodites  What happens when a market becomes mature? – Karaoke Capitalism takes over  Red oceans – All the industries in existence today —the known market space – Industry boundaries are defined and accepted, and the competitive rules of the game are known Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Creating Blue Oceans  Strategy for creating new markets – Make the competition irrelevant  Blue oceans denote all the industries not in existence today—the unknown market space, untainted by competition Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Value Innovation Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers and your company, thereby opening up new and uncontested market space Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • What is the impact of technological change? Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology is one of the major factors in change Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Opportunity Threat Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Example: Digital Photography Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Predicting Technology Revolutions  Predicting is difficult – We tend to overestimate the immediate impact of technology and underestimate the long-term impact – We tend to place emphasis on the technologies themselves, when it is really the social and cultural change that will be the most dramatic Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: Norman, The Invisible Computer
    • We tend to view technology based on pastusages but not the future potential Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Railroads (1815) “Rail travel at high speed is not possible because the passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia” - Dr. Dionysus Lardner, Professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy at University College, London Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Telephone (1876) quot;This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.quot; - Western Union internal memo, 1876. Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Cars (1885) “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad” - The president of the Michigan Savings Bank to advised Henry Ford's lawyer Horace Rackham not to invest in the Ford Motor company saying Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Airplanes (1903) quot;Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.quot; - Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895. Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Radio (1905) “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?quot; - David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Television (1926) “For God’s sake go down to the reception and get rid of a lunatic who’s down there. He says he’s got a machine for seeing by wireless!” - Editor of the Daily Express in response to a prospective visit by John Logie Baird, 1925 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Computers (1943) quot;I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Computers (1977) quot;There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” - Kenneth Olsen, president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977. Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Internet (1970) “The Internet is a shallow and unreliable electronic repository of dirty pictures, inaccurate rumors, bad spelling and worse grammar, inhabited largely by people with no demonstrable social skills.” - Chronicle of Higher Education, 1997 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Digital Cameras (1991) “But is the image quality of digital- capture high enough for large reproductions in a magazine like Arizona Highways that is known for the quality of its photography? Presently, the answer is quot;no.quot;” - by Peter Ensenberger, Arizona Highways Director of Photography, 2007 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • How will this innovationchange an industry, and what impact does this have on the firms I care about? Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Nordic Marketing Conference of Lottery Companies, Mývatn, September 1995 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Sustaining Innovations  Gradual Improvements – Foster improved product performance – Each year new and improved products are offered Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Market Leading Companies Have a high probability of beating entrant attackers when the contest is about sustaining innovations – Incremental or radical improvements to already existing products – Airplanes that fly further, computers that process faster, and televisions with clearer images Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Digital Revolution Transistor, 1947 Integrated circuit,1959 Intel 4004, 1971 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Red Ocean Industry Bloody Competition Well know industry boundaries Rules are established Sustained Innovation Disruption Blue Ocean New Value Innovation Technology Align innovation with utility, price, and cost poisition Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Disruptive Technolgoy The product performance is good enough to fulfill a unfilled need in the market Current products can’t compete Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Disruptive Innovation Theory  Existing companies have a high probability of beating entrant attackers when the contest is about sustaining innovations Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: (Christensen, 2000)
    • The Disruptive Innovation Theory New organization can use relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovations to create growth and triumph over powerful incumbents Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: (Christensen, 2000)
    • The Disruptive Innovation Theory Low-end Can occur when existing products and services are “too good” and hence overpriced relative to the value existing customer can use – Value Innovation Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: (Christensen, 2000)
    • The Disruptive Innovation Theory New-market Occur when characteristics of existing products limit the number of potential consumers or force consumption to take place in inconvenient, centralized settings Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Source: (Christensen, 2000)
    • The Disruptive Innovation Theory Source: Christensen et. al. Seeing what’s next Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • When Disruptive Technologies Cross the Chasm “’This time it’s different’ are the four most expensive words in the investing language ” - Sir John Templeton Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Hype Cycle A graphic representation of the maturity, adoption and business application of specific technologies Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Internet Bubble “The New Economy” NASDAQ January 2000 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • The Railway Bubble  Railway Stock in Britain – The value of railway stock grew 4 fold from 1826 to 1846 – Many companies, heavy overinvestment – The Bubble burst 1846 Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Summary  Technology is a process  Technology advances in cycles  Innovation is about improving the performance of technology  It is sometimes difficult to convince others of new technology  People base their view on past uses not future potential Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
    • Technology and Products  About the Presenter Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson, Chief Software Architect at Betware and Adjunct a the University of Reykjavík  On-line profile: http://olafurandri.com http://twitter.com/olandri http://delicious.com/olandri andri@ru.is Copyright © 2009, Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson