Lecture L10
LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES
Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, 

hovering on the edges of 

the present state of things, 

a map of all the...
Case Study
Why is IBM still alive and
thriving after so long, in an
industry characterised
perhaps more than any
other by ...
Platform Shifts
Tabulating machines

Electronic machines

Mainframes

Mini-computers

PC computers

Economist:	
  1100100	...
Platform Shifts

Economist:	
  1100100	
  and	
  counting
Platform Shifts
“IBM is not a technology
company, but a company
solving business problems
using technology”

– George Colo...
Platform Shifts

Economist:	
  1100100	
  and	
  counting
Platform Shifts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Maintain connection to customers!
Less hierarchical and more open!
Business relevant resea...
Innovator’s Dilemma
	 Firms that s u c c e e d in one generation of
innovation almost inevitable become hamstrung by
their...
Disrupting
How can we take advantage of the opportunities
technology change offer?
Theories of Innovations

	
	
	
	
	

Adjacent possible

Liquid network

Slow hunch

Serendipity
Moore’s Law

The Law of Acc...
Opportunity
How can we use these tools to forecast how 


information technology 

is evolving?
Opportunity

Processing
Power

Bandwidth

Storage
Opportunity
What technology do we have 


2020?
Growth	
  rate

Storage	
  
12M

POWER
Processing	
  Power	
  
18M

Bandwidth	
  
24M

TIME
2000

2010

iMac

iPhone

Mac OS 9.0.4

500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory

Screen - 786K pixels

Storage - 30GB Hard Dr...
2010

2020
?

iPhone
Mac OS 9.0.4

500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory

Screen - 786K pixels

Storage - 30GB Hard Drive

...
2010

2020
?

iPhone
Mac OS 9.0.4

500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory

Screen - 786K pixels

Storage - 30GB Hard Drive

...
2010

2020

iPhone

phone?

Mac OS 9.0.4

500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory

Screen - 786K pixels

Storage - 30GB Hard ...
http://www.truthaboutfiber.com/FTTHArticles_bandwidth_growth.cfm
2015

2020

1Gbit 10Gbit
Global total of data generated is 

approching one zettabyte

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Prize per Gigabyte

1981 — $300,000
1987 — $50,000
1990 — $10,000
1994 — $1000
1997 — $100
2000 — $10
2004 — $1
2010 — $0....
Prize per Gigabyte

1981 — $300,000
1987 — $50,000
1990 — $10,000
1994 — $1000
1997 — $100
2000 — $10
2004 — $1
2010 — $0....
Prize per Gigabyte

1981 — $300,000
1987 — $50,000
1990 — $10,000
1994 — $1000
1997 — $100
2000 — $10
2004 — $1
2010 — $0....
Supercomputer
Cray 2 1985

Apple iPad 2 2011

Read	
  more:	
  http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benche...
Will this be in your pocket in few years?
Discussion
With 15.000 Mhz, terabytes in storage, 10+ Gbps,

what

new applications can you build?
Looking for Opportunities
How do we spot opportunities?
“I never predict. I just look
out the window and see
what is visible – but not yet
seen.” 

!

Peter Drucker
Tracking Technology Trends
Establish a trend point
Tracking Technology Trends
“Remove” the technology and find the value.

What does this mean?
NORMAL
REMOVE THE TECHNOLOGY
Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6
a.m. to check his work e-...
Looking for Opportunities
Looking for Opportunities
Targeting overshot customers or
non-consumption!
!

“Good-enough” can be great!
!

Do what compe...
Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption
Removes barriers that constrain
the ability to consume
!

Overshooting cus...
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Skill

Example: photography

Kodak’s Brownie 

Camera
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Skill

Example: Computers

Apple’s iPad
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Wealth

Example: Computing

The Personal
Computer
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Access

Example: Telephony

Mobile phones
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Access

Example: Niche movies

Youtube Lego

Star wars
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Time

Example: Auction

Ebay auction
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
Time
Remove barriers that constrain the
ability to consume
What is the barrier for these:
1. Creating a Computer Game for mobil...
Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption
Make the complicated simple
Don’t let the mainstream derail you
Innovate, ...
Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption
Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption
Targeting overshot customers
or non-consumption

Nintendo Wii
Portable music players disrupted
by Apple, 2001

1000 songs in you pocket!
Mobile phone, 2007

Apple reinvents the phone
“Good-enough” can be great

Sustainable innovations compete
on getting better
!

Disruptive innovations compete
on doing i...
“Good-enough” can be great
Do what competitors won’t

Unattractive or uninteresting
market
!

Does not seek head-on collision
with established compet...
Do what competitors won’t

Personal Computers
Do what competitors won’t

CRM as a
Service
Find a job to be done
People don’t want to buy a drill, 

they need a hole
Forecasting
Why is it so difficult to
forecast technology
trends?
Disruption and 

Forecasting Errors
B

A
Disruption and 

Forecasting Errors
RADAR
Trend Lines
70
Computers

IBM

80

90

IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP

00

Intel

Many vendors
Many devices

!

Operation
System
Owner...
Trend Lines
80
IBM
Computers

90

IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP

00
Intel

Users
Priests

Specialists

CMP

DOS

Windows JVM, CLR

Sm...
Trend Lines
80
IBM
Computers

90

IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP

00
Intel

Many vendors
Many devices

!

Operation
Built-in
Unix, VMS...
Disrupting
Targeting overshot customers or
non-consumption
!

“Good-enough” can be great
!

Do what competitors won’t
New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities

483 views

Published on

In today’s business environment, there is constant need to look for new opportunities. The risk of doing business as usual means failure. How can we take advantage of new emerging technologies? We get overload of new products and services, but it is not easy to see the real trends.
In this lecture we look at how to spot trends and how to recognize shift in people’s behaviour. We also explore some tactics we can apply to find new business models.

Published in: Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
483
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
9
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
35
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities

  1. 1. Lecture L10 LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES
  2. 2. Adjacent Possible ...a kind of shadow future, 
 hovering on the edges of 
 the present state of things, 
 a map of all the ways in 
 which the present can 
 reinvent itself Steven Johnson
  3. 3. Case Study Why is IBM still alive and thriving after so long, in an industry characterised perhaps more than any other by innovation and change? Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  4. 4. Platform Shifts Tabulating machines Electronic machines Mainframes Mini-computers PC computers Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  5. 5. Platform Shifts Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  6. 6. Platform Shifts “IBM is not a technology company, but a company solving business problems using technology”
 – George Colony Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  7. 7. Platform Shifts Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  8. 8. Platform Shifts 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Maintain connection to customers! Less hierarchical and more open! Business relevant research! Globally integrated! Financial planning – get out of commoditized business Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  9. 9. Innovator’s Dilemma Firms that s u c c e e d in one generation of innovation almost inevitable become hamstrung by their own success and thus doomed to l o s e o u t in the next wave of innovation
  10. 10. Disrupting How can we take advantage of the opportunities technology change offer?
  11. 11. Theories of Innovations Adjacent possible Liquid network Slow hunch Serendipity Moore’s Law The Law of Accelerating Returns Technology S-Curve Kondratiev Wave Technology Adoption Life Cycle Diffusion of Innovation Disruptive Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes and Values Theory
  12. 12. Opportunity How can we use these tools to forecast how 
 information technology 
 is evolving?
  13. 13. Opportunity Processing Power Bandwidth Storage
  14. 14. Opportunity What technology do we have 
 2020?
  15. 15. Growth  rate Storage   12M POWER Processing  Power   18M Bandwidth   24M TIME
  16. 16. 2000 2010 iMac iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iOS 4.0
 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
 Screen - 614K pixels
 Storage - 32GB Flash Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple
  17. 17. 2010 2020 ? iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple phone? 30 times faster
  18. 18. 2010 2020 ? iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple phone? OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB Memory
 Screen – 24.000K pixels
 Storage – 1TB Hard Drive
  19. 19. 2010 2020 iPhone phone? Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB Memory
 Screen – 24.000K pixels
 Storage – 1TB Hard Drive
  20. 20. http://www.truthaboutfiber.com/FTTHArticles_bandwidth_growth.cfm
  21. 21. 2015 2020 1Gbit 10Gbit
  22. 22. Global total of data generated is 
 approching one zettabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
  23. 23. Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10
  24. 24. Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009
  25. 25. Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009 FREE
  26. 26. Supercomputer Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read  more:  http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
  27. 27. Will this be in your pocket in few years?
  28. 28. Discussion With 15.000 Mhz, terabytes in storage, 10+ Gbps,
 what new applications can you build?
  29. 29. Looking for Opportunities How do we spot opportunities?
  30. 30. “I never predict. I just look out the window and see what is visible – but not yet seen.” ! Peter Drucker
  31. 31. Tracking Technology Trends Establish a trend point
  32. 32. Tracking Technology Trends “Remove” the technology and find the value. What does this mean?
  33. 33. NORMAL REMOVE THE TECHNOLOGY Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 a.m. to check his work e-mail and a.m. to check messages from work, his Facebook and Twitter accounts. get news from his friends and see The two boys, Cole and Erik, start what others are recommending. The each morning with text messages, two boys, Cole and Erik, start each video games and Facebook. morning communicating with friends, playing games and getting news form their friends. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
  34. 34. Looking for Opportunities
  35. 35. Looking for Opportunities Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption! ! “Good-enough” can be great! ! Do what competitors won’t
  36. 36. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Removes barriers that constrain the ability to consume ! Overshooting customers needs ! Hidden beauty in undesirable or invisible markets
  37. 37. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Skill Example: photography Kodak’s Brownie 
 Camera
  38. 38. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Skill Example: Computers Apple’s iPad
  39. 39. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Wealth Example: Computing The Personal Computer
  40. 40. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Access Example: Telephony Mobile phones
  41. 41. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Access Example: Niche movies Youtube Lego
 Star wars
  42. 42. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Time Example: Auction Ebay auction
  43. 43. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Time
  44. 44. Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume What is the barrier for these: 1. Creating a Computer Game for mobile 2. Making an Music Album 3. Publishing a Novel 4. Health Care 5. University level education 6. Rent your house
  45. 45. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Make the complicated simple Don’t let the mainstream derail you Innovate, don’t force
  46. 46. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
  47. 47. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
  48. 48. Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Nintendo Wii
  49. 49. Portable music players disrupted by Apple, 2001 1000 songs in you pocket!
  50. 50. Mobile phone, 2007 Apple reinvents the phone
  51. 51. “Good-enough” can be great Sustainable innovations compete on getting better ! Disruptive innovations compete on doing it d i f f e r e n t l y
  52. 52. “Good-enough” can be great
  53. 53. Do what competitors won’t Unattractive or uninteresting market ! Does not seek head-on collision with established competitors !
  54. 54. Do what competitors won’t Personal Computers
  55. 55. Do what competitors won’t CRM as a Service
  56. 56. Find a job to be done People don’t want to buy a drill, 
 they need a hole
  57. 57. Forecasting Why is it so difficult to forecast technology trends?
  58. 58. Disruption and 
 Forecasting Errors B A
  59. 59. Disruption and 
 Forecasting Errors
  60. 60. RADAR
  61. 61. Trend Lines 70 Computers IBM 80 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Many vendors Many devices ! Operation System Owners Governments Corporation Users Priests Built-in Unix, VMS, Specialists CMP DOS 10 Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people Public Public ! Killer App. ! Homemade Business Apps Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions ! None Languages Operating systems Software Communication Media Entertainment Services Comm. ! None TCP/IP HTTP Web Services Agents Big players ! HCI ! IBM IBM, DEC Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse Microsoft Google, Yahoo! Touch, voice
  62. 62. Trend Lines 80 IBM Computers 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Users Priests Specialists CMP DOS Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people Public Public ! Killer App. Homemade Business Apps ! Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions None Languages ! Comm. ! None Big players Operating systems TCP/IP Software HTTP IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft HCI ! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse ! 20 Many vendors Many devices ! Operation Built-in Unix, VMS, System Owners Governments Corporation 10 Communication Media Entertainment Services Web Services Agents Google, Yahoo! Touch, voice ?
  63. 63. Trend Lines 80 IBM Computers 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Many vendors Many devices ! Operation Built-in Unix, VMS, System Owners Governments Corporation Users Priests Specialists CMP DOS 10 Invisible
 ! Invisible Browser Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people ! Public Everyone
 with many + Machines Public ! Killer App. Homemade Business Apps ! Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions None Languages ! Comm. ! None Big players Operating systems TCP/IP Software HTTP IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft HCI ! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse ! Communication Media Entertainment Services Web Services 20 Agents Google, Yahoo! ! Games + Same ! APIs ! ! Software 
 bots New players ! Touch, voice + Gestures ! !
  64. 64. Disrupting Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption ! “Good-enough” can be great ! Do what competitors won’t

×