New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities
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New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities

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In today’s business environment, there is constant need to look for new opportunities. The risk of doing business as usual means failure. How can we take advantage of new emerging technologies? We ...

In today’s business environment, there is constant need to look for new opportunities. The risk of doing business as usual means failure. How can we take advantage of new emerging technologies? We get overload of new products and services, but it is not easy to see the real trends.
In this lecture we look at how to spot trends and how to recognize shift in people’s behaviour. We also explore some tactics we can apply to find new business models.

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New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities New Technology Lecture L10 Looking for Opportunities Presentation Transcript

  • Lecture L10 LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES
  • Adjacent Possible ...a kind of shadow future, 
 hovering on the edges of 
 the present state of things, 
 a map of all the ways in 
 which the present can 
 reinvent itself Steven Johnson
  • Case Study Why is IBM still alive and thriving after so long, in an industry characterised perhaps more than any other by innovation and change? Economist:  1100100  and  counting View slide
  • Platform Shifts Tabulating machines Electronic machines Mainframes Mini-computers PC computers Economist:  1100100  and  counting View slide
  • Platform Shifts Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  • Platform Shifts “IBM is not a technology company, but a company solving business problems using technology”
 – George Colony Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  • Platform Shifts Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  • Platform Shifts 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Maintain connection to customers! Less hierarchical and more open! Business relevant research! Globally integrated! Financial planning – get out of commoditized business Economist:  1100100  and  counting
  • Innovator’s Dilemma Firms that s u c c e e d in one generation of innovation almost inevitable become hamstrung by their own success and thus doomed to l o s e o u t in the next wave of innovation
  • Disrupting How can we take advantage of the opportunities technology change offer?
  • Theories of Innovations Adjacent possible Liquid network Slow hunch Serendipity Moore’s Law The Law of Accelerating Returns Technology S-Curve Kondratiev Wave Technology Adoption Life Cycle Diffusion of Innovation Disruptive Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes and Values Theory
  • Opportunity How can we use these tools to forecast how 
 information technology 
 is evolving?
  • Opportunity Processing Power Bandwidth Storage
  • Opportunity What technology do we have 
 2020?
  • Growth  rate Storage   12M POWER Processing  Power   18M Bandwidth   24M TIME
  • 2000 2010 iMac iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iOS 4.0
 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
 Screen - 614K pixels
 Storage - 32GB Flash Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple
  • 2010 2020 ? iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple phone? 30 times faster
  • 2010 2020 ? iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple phone? OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB Memory
 Screen – 24.000K pixels
 Storage – 1TB Hard Drive
  • 2010 2020 iPhone phone? Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive Source:  Ars  Technical  Images:  Apple OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB Memory
 Screen – 24.000K pixels
 Storage – 1TB Hard Drive
  • http://www.truthaboutfiber.com/FTTHArticles_bandwidth_growth.cfm
  • 2015 2020 1Gbit 10Gbit
  • Global total of data generated is 
 approching one zettabyte 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
  • Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10
  • Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009
  • Prize per Gigabyte 1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009 FREE
  • Supercomputer Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read  more:  http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
  • Will this be in your pocket in few years?
  • Discussion With 15.000 Mhz, terabytes in storage, 10+ Gbps,
 what new applications can you build?
  • Looking for Opportunities How do we spot opportunities?
  • “I never predict. I just look out the window and see what is visible – but not yet seen.” ! Peter Drucker
  • Tracking Technology Trends Establish a trend point
  • Tracking Technology Trends “Remove” the technology and find the value. What does this mean?
  • NORMAL REMOVE THE TECHNOLOGY Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 a.m. to check his work e-mail and a.m. to check messages from work, his Facebook and Twitter accounts. get news from his friends and see The two boys, Cole and Erik, start what others are recommending. The each morning with text messages, two boys, Cole and Erik, start each video games and Facebook. morning communicating with friends, playing games and getting news form their friends. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
  • Looking for Opportunities
  • Looking for Opportunities Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption! ! “Good-enough” can be great! ! Do what competitors won’t
  • Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Removes barriers that constrain the ability to consume ! Overshooting customers needs ! Hidden beauty in undesirable or invisible markets
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Skill Example: photography Kodak’s Brownie 
 Camera
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Skill Example: Computers Apple’s iPad
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Wealth Example: Computing The Personal Computer
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Access Example: Telephony Mobile phones
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Access Example: Niche movies Youtube Lego
 Star wars
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Time Example: Auction Ebay auction
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume Time
  • Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume What is the barrier for these: 1. Creating a Computer Game for mobile 2. Making an Music Album 3. Publishing a Novel 4. Health Care 5. University level education 6. Rent your house
  • Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Make the complicated simple Don’t let the mainstream derail you Innovate, don’t force
  • Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
  • Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
  • Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption Nintendo Wii
  • Portable music players disrupted by Apple, 2001 1000 songs in you pocket!
  • Mobile phone, 2007 Apple reinvents the phone
  • “Good-enough” can be great Sustainable innovations compete on getting better ! Disruptive innovations compete on doing it d i f f e r e n t l y
  • “Good-enough” can be great
  • Do what competitors won’t Unattractive or uninteresting market ! Does not seek head-on collision with established competitors !
  • Do what competitors won’t Personal Computers
  • Do what competitors won’t CRM as a Service
  • Find a job to be done People don’t want to buy a drill, 
 they need a hole
  • Forecasting Why is it so difficult to forecast technology trends?
  • Disruption and 
 Forecasting Errors B A
  • Disruption and 
 Forecasting Errors
  • RADAR
  • Trend Lines 70 Computers IBM 80 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Many vendors Many devices ! Operation System Owners Governments Corporation Users Priests Built-in Unix, VMS, Specialists CMP DOS 10 Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people Public Public ! Killer App. ! Homemade Business Apps Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions ! None Languages Operating systems Software Communication Media Entertainment Services Comm. ! None TCP/IP HTTP Web Services Agents Big players ! HCI ! IBM IBM, DEC Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse Microsoft Google, Yahoo! Touch, voice
  • Trend Lines 80 IBM Computers 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Users Priests Specialists CMP DOS Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people Public Public ! Killer App. Homemade Business Apps ! Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions None Languages ! Comm. ! None Big players Operating systems TCP/IP Software HTTP IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft HCI ! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse ! 20 Many vendors Many devices ! Operation Built-in Unix, VMS, System Owners Governments Corporation 10 Communication Media Entertainment Services Web Services Agents Google, Yahoo! Touch, voice ?
  • Trend Lines 80 IBM Computers 90 IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP 00 Intel Many vendors Many devices ! Operation Built-in Unix, VMS, System Owners Governments Corporation Users Priests Specialists CMP DOS 10 Invisible
 ! Invisible Browser Windows JVM, CLR Small business Homes Educated people ! Public Everyone
 with many + Machines Public ! Killer App. Homemade Business Apps ! Customized Word processing Business Apps Spreadsheets ! Abstractions None Languages ! Comm. ! None Big players Operating systems TCP/IP Software HTTP IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft HCI ! Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse ! Communication Media Entertainment Services Web Services 20 Agents Google, Yahoo! ! Games + Same ! APIs ! ! Software 
 bots New players ! Touch, voice + Gestures ! !
  • Disrupting Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption ! “Good-enough” can be great ! Do what competitors won’t