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Lecture L24
THE FUTURE
“Optimism is a strategy for making a better future.

Because unless you believe that the future can be better, 

you are u...
PREDICTING THE FUTURE
Illustrations by French artist
Villemard in 1910 of how he
imagined the future to be in
the year 2000
Read	
  more	
  at	
  Sad	
  and	
  Useless,	
  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.9...
Read	
  more	
  at	
  Sad	
  and	
  Useless,	
  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.9...
Read	
  more	
  at	
  Sad	
  and	
  Useless,	
  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.9...
Read	
  more	
  at	
  Sad	
  and	
  Useless,	
  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.9...
Read	
  more	
  at	
  Sad	
  and	
  Useless,	
  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.9...
Walter Cronkite in the Home
Office of 2001 (1967)
11
This is how computers
work in 2001
WE TEND TO
OVERESTIMATE THE
IMMIDIATE IMPACT OF
TECHNOLOGY AND
UNDERESTIMATE
THE LONG-TERM
WE EMPHASISE

THE TECHNOLOGY
BUT IGNORE THE
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
BBC Horizon (1964) with
Arthur C. Clarke
Image: wikipedia.org
Douglas Adams in 2001
Stuff that works
1900
REVOLUTION	
  IN	
  SCIENCE	
  –	
  EINSTEIN,	
  
CURIE,	
  FREUD,	
  BOHR,	
  TURING	
  
!
BROADCAST	
  CULTURE	
  –...
WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES
OF TECHNOLOGY GROWTH
70 YEARS AGO
45 YEARS AGO
“"There	
  is	
  no	
  reason	
  for	
  any	
  individual	
  to	
  have	
  a	
  
computer	
  in	
  their	
  home.”	
  
-­‐...
33 YEARS AGO
30 YEARS AGO
Attribution: Chris 73 / Wikimedia Commons
25 YEARS AGO
THE CAR AT 25 YEARS
10 YEARS AGO
7 YEARS AGO
4 YEARS AGO
MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV	
  SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS/MAGAZINES
DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010
WILL THE FUTURE BE FANTASTIC?
WTF
HAPPENED TO
MY JOB?!?
UNEMPLOYMENT
In 1800 most jobs were in agriculture
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
THE MACHINE AGE
99% of jobs in 1800 don’t exist today
WHAT ABOUT JOBS TODAY?
70% OF JOBS WILL DISAPPEAR
Global Warming
Financials Crisis
Loss of Biodiversity and Extinctions
Arms trade
Drugs Conflicts
Extreme weather
Overpopul...
IS THE
WORLD
GETTING
WORSE?
SO
IS THERE
ANY 

REASON
TO BE
OPTIMISTIC?
Peter Diamandis
Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk
NOW IS
THE
TIME
TO BE
OPTIMISTIC
ABOUT THE
FUTURE
1900
REVOLUTION	
  IN	
  SCIENCE	
  –	
  EINSTEIN,	
  
CURIE,	
  FREUD,	
  BOHR,	
  TURING	
  
!
BROADCAST	
  CULTURE	
  –...
SOFTWARE AND DATA ARE IN THE CLOUD
INTERNET – 2,5 BILLION PEOPLE + 

3 BILLION COMING ONLINE
COMPUTERS,

PHONES,

DEVICES 

ARE 

JUST GATEWAYS

TO THE CLOUD
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
ROBOTICS
20th CENTURY INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
21ST CENTURY ROBOTS – SPATIAL
ROBOTS THE LEARN
uARM KIT $189
 AUTOMATIC AGRICULTURE ROBOTS
AUTOMATIC AGRICULTURE ROBOTS
SEXBOTS
http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/scott20131110
3D PRINTING
JOBS OF THE FUTURE
WHY IS MY
JOB GONE?
How will the 

job market

change?
THE SECOND MACHINE AGE
Source:	
  http://www.economist.com/
MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV	
  SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS/MAGAZINES
DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010
2010 2020
BUSINESS

MODELS

OF THE 20TH
CENTURY
THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE
NEW
BUSINESS
MODELS
BASED ON
PEER-2-PEER
AND
ABU...
JOBS	
  IN	
  
SALE	
  AND

DISTRIBUTION	
  	
  
OF	
  PRODUCT

THAT	
  CAN	
  BE	
  MADE	
  
DIGITAL	
  AND	
  
DISTRIBUT...
VIDEO STORES
MUSIC STORES
BOOKSTORES
…
BOOKSTORES ARE 

BECOMING COFFEE HOUSES
PHONE COMPANIES ARE BECOMING

VIDEO STORES
Source:	
  http://www.nationphone.com/USATVAbroad.html
Edited program Algorithmically selected
program
OVER THE TOP CONTENT
BEFORE FUTURE
Buy, own, clutter Stream, temporary, subscribe,
algorithmically recommended,
social
JOBS BECOME INTERNET SERVICE
BEFORE FU...
JOBS in SALE
AND
DISTRIBUTION
OF PRODUCT
THAT CAN BE
BOUGHT ONLINE
STORES ARE TURNING INTO FITTING ROOMS
SHOP WITH APP
HELP YOURSELF
SJÁLFSAFGREIÐSLASHOP ONLINE AND PICK UP
…OR GET DELIVERED
Trucks Self driving cars, drones,
quadcopters
TRANSPORTATION – PRODUCTS
BEFORE BECOMES
Run on diesel, electricity Runs on super magnets
TRANSPORTATION – TRAINS
BEFORE BECOMES
!
CLERK JOBS

BECOME
SOFTWARE
SERVICE
Go to the bank Online
CLERK JOBS
BEFORE NOW
JOBS
IN
ANALYSING 

AND CONSULTING

BECOMES

SOFTWARE

SERVICE
Assist, advice Software, videos, softbots
that recommend
SERVICE JOBS
BEFORE FUTURE
Legal, accounting, tax
services
Software that analysis
data and recommends
PROFESSIONAL JOBS
BEFORE FUTURE
Diagnosis, recommendation
 Software, sensors that
analysis and recommend
HEALTH CARE
BEFORE FUTURE
95
Imagine a
portable, wireless
device in the palm
of your hand that
monitors and
diagnoses your
health conditions
Teachers, textbooks, 

schools, degrees
MOOCs, online, virtual
degrees, personalised
education, livelong
EDUCATION
BEFORE ...
JOBS WITH

PRODUCTION
REPLACED 

WITH 

MACHINES
Low paid jobs, simple skills Robots
FOOD PRODUCTION
BEFORE FUTURE
PRODUCTION
Low paid jobs, simple skills
BEFORE
Low paid jobs, simple skills Robots
FUTURE
Mass production 3D Printing, personalized
DESIGN AND PRODUCTION
BEFORE FUTURE
Intellectual sexbots
FUTURE OF SEX
BEFORE FUTURE
You know how it works,

sex toys
JOBS OF THE FUTURE
Creative

Value-added

Experience

Content creation

Crossing skill sets
OK, I GET
IT
DAWN OF MAN NOW FUTURE
We tend to 

look back

!
Tyranny of

common sense

!
RVP
Unknown
Opportunity
IS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS

GOOD OR BAD?
“I like stepping into the future. Therefore, I look for doorknobs.”
― Mark Rosen
New Technology 2014
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L24 The Future

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Looking back, the 20th century saw more innovation then history of mankind before that. This was the century of electronics, computers, software and the Internet. Now when we are at the beginning of the 21st century what will we see in the coming decades? There is strong evidence that technology is still very primitive and that we will see more progress in the 21st century than all progress of mankind combined.

In this lecture we look into the future and look at the trends that are will shape the world in the near future. We will look at technology that dies and jobs that are changing.

References:
BBC Horizon (1964) with Arthur C. Clarke
Big Thinkers (2001) with Douglas Adams
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk
Peter Diamandis: Abundance the book
IPCC Climate Change
Microsoft's Future Vision - Live, Work, Play

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Transcript of "L24 The Future"

  1. 1. Lecture L24 THE FUTURE
  2. 2. “Optimism is a strategy for making a better future.
 Because unless you believe that the future can be better, 
 you are unlikely to step up and take responsibility for making it so.” - Noam Chomsky
  3. 3. PREDICTING THE FUTURE
  4. 4. Illustrations by French artist Villemard in 1910 of how he imagined the future to be in the year 2000
  5. 5. Read  more  at  Sad  and  Useless,  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99   In the 21st century, in order to control traffic jams in the air, there will be more and more flying policemen.
  6. 6. Read  more  at  Sad  and  Useless,  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99   Schools will be equipped with audio books.
  7. 7. Read  more  at  Sad  and  Useless,  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99   You’ll be able to send mail just by dictating it into loudspeaker.
  8. 8. Read  more  at  Sad  and  Useless,  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99   Building sites will be equipped with 
 automatic devices and machines.
  9. 9. Read  more  at  Sad  and  Useless,  http://www.sadanduseless.com/2011/03/world-­‐in-­‐2000/#FQZyXhjwDLTbqp6Y.99   Listening to an audio-newspaper. Listening  to  an  audio-­‐newspaper.  
  10. 10. Walter Cronkite in the Home Office of 2001 (1967)
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. This is how computers work in 2001
  13. 13. WE TEND TO OVERESTIMATE THE IMMIDIATE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY AND UNDERESTIMATE THE LONG-TERM
  14. 14. WE EMPHASISE
 THE TECHNOLOGY BUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
  15. 15. BBC Horizon (1964) with Arthur C. Clarke
  16. 16. Image: wikipedia.org
  17. 17. Douglas Adams in 2001
  18. 18. Stuff that works
  19. 19. 1900 REVOLUTION  IN  SCIENCE  –  EINSTEIN,   CURIE,  FREUD,  BOHR,  TURING   ! BROADCAST  CULTURE  –  RADIO,   MOVIES,  TV,  SITCOMS   ! ANALOG  –  RECORDS,  CASETTES,  FILM,   BOOKS,  CD,  DVD   ! INDUSTRIAL   ! FACT  BASED  EDUCTION 2000 2100 WHAT  WILL  THE
 FUTURE  BE?
  20. 20. WE ARE STILL IN THE EARLY STAGES OF TECHNOLOGY GROWTH
  21. 21. 70 YEARS AGO
  22. 22. 45 YEARS AGO
  23. 23. “"There  is  no  reason  for  any  individual  to  have  a   computer  in  their  home.”   -­‐  Kenneth  Olsen,  president  and  founder  of  Digital   Equipment  Corp.,  1977     37 YEARS AGO
  24. 24. 33 YEARS AGO
  25. 25. 30 YEARS AGO
  26. 26. Attribution: Chris 73 / Wikimedia Commons 25 YEARS AGO
  27. 27. THE CAR AT 25 YEARS
  28. 28. 10 YEARS AGO
  29. 29. 7 YEARS AGO
  30. 30. 4 YEARS AGO
  31. 31. MUSIC PICTURES COMMUNICATION SMARTPHONES TV  SHOWS MOVIES BOOKS/MAGAZINES DIGITAL DECADE 2000 2010
  32. 32. WILL THE FUTURE BE FANTASTIC?
  33. 33. WTF HAPPENED TO MY JOB?!? UNEMPLOYMENT
  34. 34. In 1800 most jobs were in agriculture
  35. 35. INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
  36. 36. THE MACHINE AGE
  37. 37. 99% of jobs in 1800 don’t exist today
  38. 38. WHAT ABOUT JOBS TODAY?
  39. 39. 70% OF JOBS WILL DISAPPEAR
  40. 40. Global Warming Financials Crisis Loss of Biodiversity and Extinctions Arms trade Drugs Conflicts Extreme weather Overpopulation Terrorism Food shortages
  41. 41. IS THE WORLD GETTING WORSE?
  42. 42. SO IS THERE ANY 
 REASON TO BE OPTIMISTIC?
  43. 43. Peter Diamandis Abundance is our future - 2012 TED talk
  44. 44. NOW IS THE TIME TO BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE FUTURE
  45. 45. 1900 REVOLUTION  IN  SCIENCE  –  EINSTEIN,   CURIE,  FREUD,  BOHR,  TURING   ! BROADCAST  CULTURE  –  RADIO,   MOVIES,  TV,  SITCOMS   ! ANALOG  –  RECORDS,  CASETTES,  FILM,   BOOKS,  CD,  DVD   ! INDUSTRIAL   ! FACT  BASED  EDUCTION 2000 2100 THE  THIRD  INDUSTRIAL  REVOLUTION   END  OF  CONTROL   EVERYTHING  IS  DIGITAL   THE  RISE  OF  SOFTWARE     ARTIFICIAL  INTELLIGENCE     INFINITE  COMPUTING   ROBOTICS   3D  PRINTING   SYNTHETIC  BIOLOGY   DIGITAL  MEDICINE   NANOMATERIAL   ABUNDANCE   SUPERMAGNETS
  46. 46. SOFTWARE AND DATA ARE IN THE CLOUD
  47. 47. INTERNET – 2,5 BILLION PEOPLE + 
 3 BILLION COMING ONLINE
  48. 48. COMPUTERS,
 PHONES, DEVICES ARE 
 JUST GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
  49. 49. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
  50. 50. ROBOTICS
  51. 51. 20th CENTURY INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS
  52. 52. 21ST CENTURY ROBOTS – SPATIAL
  53. 53. ROBOTS THE LEARN
  54. 54. uARM KIT $189
  55. 55.  AUTOMATIC AGRICULTURE ROBOTS
  56. 56. AUTOMATIC AGRICULTURE ROBOTS
  57. 57. SEXBOTS http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/scott20131110
  58. 58. 3D PRINTING
  59. 59. JOBS OF THE FUTURE WHY IS MY JOB GONE? How will the job market change?
  60. 60. THE SECOND MACHINE AGE Source:  http://www.economist.com/
  61. 61. MUSIC PICTURES COMMUNICATION SMARTPHONES TV  SHOWS MOVIES BOOKS/MAGAZINES DIGITAL DECADE 2000 2010
  62. 62. 2010 2020 BUSINESS
 MODELS
 OF THE 20TH CENTURY THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE NEW BUSINESS MODELS BASED ON PEER-2-PEER AND ABUNDANCE
  63. 63. JOBS  IN   SALE  AND
 DISTRIBUTION     OF  PRODUCT
 THAT  CAN  BE  MADE   DIGITAL  AND   DISTRIBUTED   WITH  THE  INTERNET
  64. 64. VIDEO STORES MUSIC STORES BOOKSTORES …
  65. 65. BOOKSTORES ARE 
 BECOMING COFFEE HOUSES
  66. 66. PHONE COMPANIES ARE BECOMING
 VIDEO STORES Source:  http://www.nationphone.com/USATVAbroad.html
  67. 67. Edited program Algorithmically selected program OVER THE TOP CONTENT BEFORE FUTURE
  68. 68. Buy, own, clutter Stream, temporary, subscribe, algorithmically recommended, social JOBS BECOME INTERNET SERVICE BEFORE FUTURE
  69. 69. JOBS in SALE AND DISTRIBUTION OF PRODUCT THAT CAN BE BOUGHT ONLINE
  70. 70. STORES ARE TURNING INTO FITTING ROOMS
  71. 71. SHOP WITH APP
  72. 72. HELP YOURSELF
  73. 73. SJÁLFSAFGREIÐSLASHOP ONLINE AND PICK UP
  74. 74. …OR GET DELIVERED
  75. 75. Trucks Self driving cars, drones, quadcopters TRANSPORTATION – PRODUCTS BEFORE BECOMES
  76. 76. Run on diesel, electricity Runs on super magnets TRANSPORTATION – TRAINS BEFORE BECOMES
  77. 77. ! CLERK JOBS
 BECOME SOFTWARE SERVICE
  78. 78. Go to the bank Online CLERK JOBS BEFORE NOW
  79. 79. JOBS IN ANALYSING 
 AND CONSULTING
 BECOMES
 SOFTWARE
 SERVICE
  80. 80. Assist, advice Software, videos, softbots that recommend SERVICE JOBS BEFORE FUTURE
  81. 81. Legal, accounting, tax services Software that analysis data and recommends PROFESSIONAL JOBS BEFORE FUTURE
  82. 82. Diagnosis, recommendation
 Software, sensors that analysis and recommend HEALTH CARE BEFORE FUTURE
  83. 83. 95 Imagine a portable, wireless device in the palm of your hand that monitors and diagnoses your health conditions
  84. 84. Teachers, textbooks, 
 schools, degrees MOOCs, online, virtual degrees, personalised education, livelong EDUCATION BEFORE FUTURE
  85. 85. JOBS WITH
 PRODUCTION REPLACED 
 WITH 
 MACHINES
  86. 86. Low paid jobs, simple skills Robots FOOD PRODUCTION BEFORE FUTURE
  87. 87. PRODUCTION Low paid jobs, simple skills BEFORE Low paid jobs, simple skills Robots FUTURE
  88. 88. Mass production 3D Printing, personalized DESIGN AND PRODUCTION BEFORE FUTURE
  89. 89. Intellectual sexbots FUTURE OF SEX BEFORE FUTURE You know how it works,
 sex toys
  90. 90. JOBS OF THE FUTURE Creative Value-added Experience Content creation Crossing skill sets OK, I GET IT
  91. 91. DAWN OF MAN NOW FUTURE We tend to 
 look back ! Tyranny of common sense ! RVP Unknown Opportunity
  92. 92. IS TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS GOOD OR BAD?
  93. 93. “I like stepping into the future. Therefore, I look for doorknobs.” ― Mark Rosen
  94. 94. New Technology 2014
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