New Technology Lecture L03 Exponential World


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For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your father and your childs. Nothing changed.

Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law.

Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.

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New Technology Lecture L03 Exponential World

  2. 2. How  does  technology  evolve?  
  3. 3. Evolution of technology is closely linked with the evolution of mankind
  4. 4. Charles Darwin published “On The Origin of Species” in 1852
  5. 5. Evolutionary Process Each generation breeds the next, and becomes an input
  6. 6. Samuel Butler published 1859 
 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines” Kingdom of the machines
  7. 7. Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
  8. 8. Kevin Kelly’s The Seventh Kingdom
  9. 9. Evolution of the 
 human brain
  11. 11. The  S-­‐Curve  
  12. 12. The S-curve Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
  13. 13. The S-curve Product Perfomance Maturity phase Growth phase Research and development phase Time and effort
  14. 14. The S-curve   Exponential  trends  can   be  composed  of  a   sequence  of  S-­‐curves   where  each  curve  is   faster
  15. 15. The S-curve   Exponential  trends  can   be  composed  of  a   sequence  of  S-­‐curves   where  each  curve  is   faster
  16. 16. Technology  Life  Cycle  
  17. 17. Technology Life Cycle The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life".
  18. 18. Technology Life Cycle In the early days In the later days ! ! The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
  19. 19. The  Digital  Revolution  
  20. 20. Computers in 1964 IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memory
  21. 21. The Digital Revolution Transistor, 1947 Vacuum tube, 1904 Intel 4004, 1971 Integrated circuit, 1959
  22. 22. Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
  23. 23. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on
 an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months
  24. 24. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on
 an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.
  25. 25. Technological growth accelerates
  26. 26. The Fifth Paradigm
  27. 27. 30 years of product improvements 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz
  28. 28. 30 years of product improvements iPad  2  as  fast  as  Cray  2  supercomputer,   fraction  of  the  size
 Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read  more:
  29. 29. Exponential Growth Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates
  30. 30. Second half of the Chess board Flickr  picture  by  spwelton
  31. 31. The Legend of the
 Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
  32. 32. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on
 an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.
  33. 33. Exponential growth
  34. 34. Computers will be faster
  35. 35. Computers will be smaller
  36. 36. Computers will be cheaper
  37. 37. Computers will be everywhere
  38. 38. Things that once were impossible become possible
  39. 39. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
  40. 40. And from 2009 to 2014
  41. 41. The Long Nose of Innovation Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation Source: id2008012_297369.htm  
  42. 42. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both
 biology and technology, tend to 
  43. 43. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from
  44. 44. The Law of 
 Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.     As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
  45. 45. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the commonsense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress 
 (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
  46. 46. S-Curve
  47. 47. S-Curve
  48. 48. S-Curve
  49. 49. S-Curve
  50. 50. S-Curve
  51. 51. S-Curve
  52. 52. Is this evolution of technology good?
  53. 53. Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral
  54. 54. Peter Diamandis
  55. 55. NEXT: ! The Adjacent Possible