OK – RATING INSTITUTE
Comparison
Dutch Market
1.1.2003-30.11.2009
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USAGE
OK – RATING INSTITUTE
The OK-Score ® is a business classification system [RATING-SYSTEM], able to provide a very solid
apprehension [like in medical terms, as an MRI-Scan] of a company's vital position. Even better, it can make a
prediction of how the company will develop in the near future (with a maximum two years).
The company and/or its auditors can use this classification as a warning, take action during this time and adapt
its course. It is also in use in monitoring private-equity, or during management buy-in or buy–out processes.
Curators are using the method for screening their bankruptcy cases and Police-departments (Brussels) for
delicate fraud-detection. Scrambled internet solutions are available on demand.
Finally the OK-Score is used for selecting stocks from the index. Since it can be used on any index, the Board of
the OK-Rating Institute decided to publish - publically - the results of their rating quality by a scrutinizing insight
of their AEX (Dutch index) rating process. The results are published since 2003 and follow on the next slides.
The classification model was invented by Mr. Willem D. Okkerse MBA (born in 1946 and very well experienced in
strategic and corporate finance, now CEO of the OK-Rating Institute) when he did financial research for his
thesis to take his Doctors Degree at the University of Amsterdam.
The research aimed for a comparison of and a better alternative for business ratio's like Professor Altman's Z-
score and Professor Bilderbeek's Tubantian test. Not only the method of the OK-Score model was different in
character and approach; most of all its reliability proved to be significantly bigger. The so-called doubly blind *
samples supervised by a notary yielded startling results, like a 100% reliability type II error ** and a 82% accuracy
type I error which even went up to 97%*** after lifting the blind filter of the business type.
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
DISCLAIMER
All following information is composed from the OK-Score AEX Portfolio results, the OK-Rating
Institute’s flagship. Until Dec. 31, 2008 this portfolio was managed by Today’s Beheer at Amsterdam. ,
Today’s Beheer confirmed the results in a written statement, adapted as an integral part of our annual
report 2008 (in Dutch ) that can be downloaded from our web-site. As per Jan 1, 2009 for compliance
reasons, the OK-Score AEX portfolio will be supervised by the Vice-President of the Institute of
Forensic Auditors in Brussels.
The information presented by the OK-Rating Institute in this slideshow is obtained from sources that
can be judged as reliable, but the Institute can never be hold responsible for its correctness and
completeness. In no circumstances any rights can be claimed.
In all calculations, general conditions are applicable which might not be addressed to a particular
situation; so all information serve as an indication. The reader him/herself will be responsible in using
this information. Although the OK-Rating Institute is using all its efforts for a careful and correct
composition, we will not guarantee the exact correctness and completeness. All details given might
be changed without further notice.
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
Yield Dutch Funds
1.1.2003 – 30.11.2009
130 130
105 105
Achmea Hld
AEX
80 80
Fortis Dutch
ING Dutch
Robeco
55 55
SNS
Allianz Hld
OK-Score
30 30
Lineair (OK-Score)
Lineair (AEX)
5 5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-20 -20
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
Annual return Dutch Funds
1.1.2003 – 30.11.2009
15
12,3
10
Achmea Hld
Fortis Dutch
5 3,76 ING Dutch
2,33 2,47 2,09 2,08 Robeco
1,44
SNS
OK-Score
0
2009 Allianz Hld
-5
-10
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
WARNING
INVESTMENTS IN SHARES IN MUTUAL FUNDS AS SHOWN ON
PREVIOUS SLIDES CAN HARM YOUR HEALTH
THE AVERAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE FUNDS AND THE
OK-SCORE IN SIX YEARS AND 10 MONTHS IS NOW 104% !
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
PERMANENT OUT PERFORMANCE
1999-2002 = supervised backtracking
2003-today = real life
65
55
45
0,7 9,0
35 3 2 6,3
2 24,4
25 4,8 , 2
1 13
15 5
3, OK-SCORE
5
AEX
-5 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-15
-25 , 3
- 21
-35
-45 -52,3
-55
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OK – The predicting power
RATING INSTITUTE
Green = prediction as per OK-Score
likely to happen in time (18-24 months)
Red = real life AEX
8,5
800
8
700
7,5
600
7
500 OK-SCORE
6,5 AEX
6 400 Lineair (AEX)
Lineair (OK-SCORE)
5,5 300
5 200
4,5 100
4 0
mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug- mrt- aug-
00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
- UNIQUE REAL LIFE TRACK RECORD
OUTPERFORMING AEX PERMANENTLY
- LOWER RISK THAN AEX INDEX : 0,66
SINCE 2003
- JENSEN ALPHA 10,5%
- SHARP RATIO 1,32
- TRACKING ERROR 5,92%
- INFORMATION RATIO 1,88
- MATCHES ANY LOCAL COMPETITOR
- IS OUTPERFORMING ALL LOCAL, EUROPEAN
AND WORLDINDEXE (see following sheet)
UNIVERSAL CONCEPT
APPLICABLE FOR ANY INDEX
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OK –YIELD OK AEX INSTITUTE
RATING PORTFOLIO
Jan. 1, 2003 – Nov. 30, 2009
140
120
Warren Buffet
100
S&P500
OK-Score porto
80
Fidelity Eurostoxx 50
Lineair (Warren Buffet)
60
Lineair (S&P500)
Lineair (OK-Score porto)
40 Lineair (Fidelity Eurostoxx 50)
20
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
Annual return Warren Buffet, S&P 500,
Eurostoxx 50 and the OK-Score
portfolio1.1.2003 – 11.30.2009
15
12,27
10
4,6 4,34 Warren Buffet
5 4,14
S&P500
Eurostoxx50
OK-Score
0
2009
-5
-10
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
THE QUALITY OF RATINGS
Cumulative Accuracy Profile
Source : CAP profile web-site S&P
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OK – RATING INSTITUTE
THANK YOU FOR YOUR VISIT
AND
ATTENTION
OK-Rating Institute
Diepenhorstlaan 2 (as per Nov.22)
2288 EW Rijswijk
The Netherlands
0031/70/4155001
www.ok-ratinginstitute.eu
info@ok-ratinginstitute.eu
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