Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Hypothesis Forming and Testing
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Hypothesis Forming and Testing

1,083

Published on

Roger Kahler …

Roger Kahler
Director, InterSafe Group Pty Ltd

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,083
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. New Zealand OHSIG Conference 26-28 October 2011 Hypothesis Forming and Testing Roger Kahler Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 2. Two Applications1. “Collective” Incident Data2. An “Individual” Incident Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 3. Scientific Process Interacting Concepts • Models / Modelling• Hypothesis forming and testing • Taxonomy Can be applied collectively/individually Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 4. TaxonomyEngineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 5. Crane Fatalities – A Taxonomic Analysis Overhead power Electrical Energy – lines - 214 electrocution - 217 Portable equipment -3 Falls of Objects -Crane Fatalities Gravitational 1441985-1995 Energy - 268 Falls of People - 88525 Falls of Crane – overturn - 36 Machine Energy - Person Caught 34 Between - 24 Person Run Over - 10 Other - 6 Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 6. Taxonomies• Show relative frequency of levels of Damage• Show relative importance of different damaging energies Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 7. Incident Time Base• Damage as a consequence of an Energy Exchange  Situation stable  Situation moving out of control  Situation out of control Time  DAMAGE  Recovery Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 8. Damage ReductionEngineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 9. Damage ReductionEngineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 10. Hypothesis Forming & TestingHypothesis Forming & Testing as applied to Individual Incidents Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 11. What’s Your Hypothesis? Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 12. What Actually HappenedVideo available athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVmpEPdPBk8 Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 13. An Individual Incident• What are the roles of – Taxonomy – Modelling – Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 14. Role of Hypothesising in the Journey of an Investigation• Scope• Collect Information Data ← Informally• Form and test hypotheses ← Formally• Description• Analysis and Recommendation Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 15. Observers• Incident Investigators are first and foremost observers of a situation• Observations have to first be made• A frame of reference will improve the quality and quantity of observations Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 16. ObservationAn observation will be:1. SUPPORTIVE of the hypothesis2. REJECTING of the hypothesis3. NOT APPLICABLE to the hypothesis4. MORE INFORMATION REQUIRED before a decision can be made as to 1, 2 or 3. Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 17. Hypothesis• At some point a decision has to be made with respect to the observations• This involves forming a hypothesis Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 18. Possibility and Probability IMPOSSIBLE - POSSIBLE PROBABILITY50% 95% 99%Balance of 1:20 “Variation due Beyond reasonableprobabilities to chance” doubt Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 19. Self Fulfilling Hypothesis• Hypothesise• Select evidence to support, not reject Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 20. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 21. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 22. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 23. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Car „A‟ Start of curve Double white lines 100 m 2 skid marks 20 m long gridHYPOTHESIS: Car „A‟ braked heavily after crossing grid.Questions: What observations can you make that could be “supportive” or“rejecting” of this hypothesis? Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 24. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 25. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 26. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 27. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 28. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 29. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 30. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 31. Hypothesis Forming and TestingHow could you formally test an hypothesis? Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 32. Hypothesis Forming and Testing Hypothesis = (testable statement)“Supporting” “Rejecting” CommentsObservations Observations Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 33. Engaging Experts Questions to People Investigating Failures1. What do you think happened? (Hypothesis)2. Why do you think this? (Supporting information)3. Any observations that don’t fit? (Rejecting information)4. What could be done differently in future? (Essential factors & potential recommendations) Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 34. Case Study – Low Loader Fire• List supporting and rejecting observations for each hypothesis• Decide whether the particular hypothesis is possible/impossible• Of the possible hypothesis, assign a probability Engineering Safer Workplace Solutions
  • 35. The EndEngineering Safer Workplace Solutions

×