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OECD Interim economic projections, March 2014
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OECD Interim economic projections, March 2014

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This Interim Report updates projections made in the November 2013 issue of OECD Economic Outlook.

This Interim Report updates projections made in the November 2013 issue of OECD Economic Outlook.

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  • Note that surprises in Q4 on Q4 growth (shown) come from either or both of revisions to past quarters and deviations from expectations for the latest quarter.
  • Mention release of March CLIs same day as Interim AssessmentNote the tension between our model forecasts for China, which are rising and above trend, and the CLIs for China (not shown), which are slightly falling and below trend.
  • Mention release of March CLIs same day as Interim AssessmentNote the tension between our model forecasts for China, which are rising and above trend, and the CLIs for China (not shown), which are slightly falling and below trend.
  • Mention release of March CLIs same day as Interim AssessmentNote the tension between our model forecasts for China, which are rising and above trend, and the CLIs for China (not shown), which are slightly falling and below trend.
  • Mention that the unusual weather has probably had a similar impact on Canada.
  • Discuss reasons: demography, less catch-up,
  • Note that there are always many risks and we will mention only a couple. Mention UKR crisis as a possible source of renewed pressure on EMEs.

OECD Interim economic projections, March 2014 OECD Interim economic projections, March 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • 11 March 2014 Recent economic developments and the near-term outlook Rintaro Tamaki Deputy Secretary-General and Acting Chief Economist, OECD
  • 2 1. Recent developments and near-term outlook
  • 3 Recent PMIs for the major economies have mostly been strong. Consensus forecasts for 2014 have risen in recent months, except for Japan. Ongoing recovery in advanced economies… All data in excel for entire presentation
  • 4 … with the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators pointing to an upswing… All data in excel
  • 5 … though not in most EMEs All data in excel
  • 6 Advanced economy activity is still being supported by easy financial conditions
  • 7 Trade volumes have risen more rapidly in recent months With the recovery of advanced economies, world trade growth has picked up All data in excel
  • 8 Recent developments in the United States have been affected by unusual weather Severe winter weather appears to have dented the growth of output… … and employment. All data in excel
  • 9 As expected, activity appears to be surging ahead of 1 April, with a dip foreseen afterward. The consumption tax hike will make Japan’s near-term growth profile uneven All data in excel
  • 10 Euro area unemployment is still near its highs. Inflation has fallen further below target in the euro area. Albeit improving, the euro area is still lagging other major advanced economies All data in excel
  • 11 OECD interim short-term projections Indicator-based forecasts for GDP in the major economies1 Annualised quarter-on-quarter growth, in per cent2 b 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 United States 4.1 2.4 1.7 [3.1]* Japan 0.9 0.7 4.8 [-2.9]* Germany 1.3 1.5 3.7 2.5 France -0.2 1.2 0.7 1.0 Italy -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 United Kingdom 3.4 2.9 3.3 3.3 Canada 2.7 2.9 0.5 [2.4]* G7 2.8 2.0 2.2 2.0 Euro area 32 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.4 Source: OECD Interim Projections. 1. All numbers based on OECD indicator model, except for the United States, Japan and Canada, where the numbers for 2014 Q2 are from the November 2013 Economic Outlook , owing to one-off factors that cannot be captured by the model. 3. Weighted average of Germany, France and Italy. 2. Based on GDP releases and high-frequency indicators published by 10 March; seasonally and in some cases working-day adjusted.
  • 12 2. Risks OECD Economic Outlook All data in excel
  • 13 Trend growth has slowed in emerging economies… Economic Outlook online database
  • 14 … and tighter financial conditions may compound that with a cyclical slowdown… Bouts of financial market turmoil like the one affecting many EMEs in January may depress near-term growth in some cases.
  • 15 … and could complicate the recovery for advanced economies Economic Outlook online database
  • 16 The dip in momentum in the United States could turn out to be less transitory than expected Home sales have declined as long-term interest rates have risen. Business confidence has turned down.
  • 17 3. Policy priorities OECD Economic Outlook
  • 18 Priorities to support demand and reduce fiscal risks in advanced economies • Gradually withdraw monetary accommodation, with careful communication. • Improve the quality of fiscal consolidation while its pace slows. USA • Maintain or increase monetary stimulus. • Ensure that the review of the banking system is credible and followed up. • Adhere to the programmed pace of structural fiscal consolidation. Euro area • Meet or exceed the targeted quantitative and qualitative easing. • Pursue steadfast fiscal consolidation. • Strengthen structural reform efforts (the “third arrow” of Abenomics). Japan
  • 19 Priorities for EMEs to manage weaker demand and greater risk aversion • Steadily restrain credit growth. • Improve financial and macro-prudential regulation. • Enhance monitoring and control of local government spending. • Implement the wide-ranging reforms announced in November. China • Provide for sufficient exchange rate flexibility. • Address inflation pressures where necessary. • Relax fiscal policy only where sufficient scope exists. Other EMEs
  • 20 Most countries have considerable scope to step up growth-friendly structural reforms Source: OECD calculations based on Going for Growth 2014. Responsiveness to Going for Growth recommendations Note: Responsiveness rates are calculated as the share of priority areas in Going for Growth in which 'significant' action has been taken. The euro area and OECD rates are calculated as an unweighted averages. OECD countries are shaded in blue, non-OECD countries are in yellow, and the OECD average is in red. Responsiveness rate, 2012-2013 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 IDN NOR ISL CHE RUS BEL CHL NLD TUR USA LUX KOR SWE POL JPN AUS AUT HUN FRA ITA CZE DEU OECD ISR CAN SVN CHN ZAF DNK FIN BRA IND SVK GBR MEX PRT EST NZL ESP IRL GRC
  • 21 4. Summing up OECD Economic Outlook
  • 22 Improved momentum in major advanced economies Slowing growth exacerbated by tighter financial conditions in emerging economies Growing importance of structural reforms in both advanced and emerging economies Key messages
  • 23 Additional reading Economic Outlook Economic policy reforms: Going for Growth Economic Outlook online database Main economic indicators Economic’s department policy notes Economic’s department working papers OECD forecasts during and after the financial crisis: a post mortem