Rockdale library august 2013.9 ex
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The trick always is to get people to realise that they need to change and that it is not necessarily threatening. This presentation is similar to others I have used in creating new Scenarios for ...

The trick always is to get people to realise that they need to change and that it is not necessarily threatening. This presentation is similar to others I have used in creating new Scenarios for Libraries in all sectors. This is an essential element of change management. The future of libraries and publishing is fundamental to re-thinking and the management of risk.

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  • I am SOC your presenter; I have been a university Librarian for nearly 15 years and a CEO of a N-F-P company for 8 years. This has richly influenced my management and thinking working in an expenditure based organisation and then an income based organisation before returning to an income based organisation. Scenario planning is a very important tool by which all the future options are bought into play ensuring the best business investment decisions are made.I have worked predominantly in Australia but in Hong Kong over the past 5 years. I have therefore had extensive recent experience in Mainland China as well as rich experience across Asia. I also have very deep understanding and knowledge of I hope that you enjoy and gain value from this talk.
  • Rick Anderson as the Editor of Journal of Academic Librarianship made the following three comments about Perception, Value and Patrons.With the first we are reminded that Perception is more important than reality. Our realities are not necessarily those of our clients or patrons. The perception each of us have about ny particular service organisation will vary even though the reality of that organisation’s service is probably consistent.No matter how well we believe that our library is performing; now relevant it is; how up-to-date we believe that it isIF our users do not share this then their reality is that the library is NOT performing and is not relevant to their information needs.
  • If as the providers of a service or a product place a certain cost on that service or product and the client does not perceive it to be of value, then what is the point. It is not valuable even if we think that it has real value. As Librarians we believe that we offer fantastic services, great information access and retrieval services. At the same time, there is a clearly popular view that everything is digital and therefore why do they need a library service. This popular view does not place VALUE on a library service, therefore it is not perceived to be Valuable.Another example I have had is where staff believe that the academic staff of a University visit the library on a regular basis, yet have no way of proving this. In actual fact the staff use the library every day but not in person. Many time these same academic staff do not value the library because they do not visit and they perceive that all the content they are receiving comes free from the net, rather than from their library… at great expense.Value is a very important concept.
  • Can we as Librarians live with this statement? So many intelligent people will say that they get all the information they require from the Internet and Google. These are intelligent people, information hungry but perhaps not discerning as I would believe they should be. If it is pointed out to them that they do not gain access to subscribed information through Google, they are usually amazed and.. Perhaps do not care.They is much truth in this statement that Patrons do not need librarians as much as they once did; there is equally as much strength in the argument that they should need the librarian more because of the lack of tactility of information and the need strategies needed to really assure oneself that all the required information is indeed located. Perhaps there is a difference in the edge of service now provided by librarians; a difference in quality and professionalism.
  • These African Meerkats evidence that we are all different; we all see events from different perspectives with different insights . We are all viewing the same circumstances and yet we all receive different messages or outcomes from the view. Some have telescopic views while others skirt under the radar to gain a slightly different perspective.The overall message is that for an organisation to gain the best view of its future, many views and perspectives are highly desirable. This will create a blended but not diminished view of the potential future.
  • We deal with out futures every day, every waking moment as we make choices, choices, choices. We choose to go to work in a particular manner; we choose to follow a particular route. Sometimes that choice of path can have devastating consequences. The future is something we think about often and make resolutions about but we do not know the probable success of these future choices.It is the same with our careers and organisations. Too often we let things drift, plans drift and policies made elesewhere in the institution or publishing industry force new behaviours on us.This is not the future. The future is not science fiction, although science fiction has explored the possibilities as creative literary exercises.
  • Pieter Brugel The Elder 1520 – 1569The Fall of the Rebel AngelsRoyal Museums of Fine Arts of belgium Brussels
  • When driving a vehicle we can only judge how far we have come by looking backwards; or looking through a rear vision mirror. We will be surprised how far we have come down the road by looking in that mirror and seeing the distance we have travelled, even if the mirror is clouded with rain.The same situation applies to our careers or organisations; change infiltrates our daily existence often with out even realising it. Our user attitudes change; our staff get older and less inclined to change…”It is has worked well for years, why change??” :they might say.We have changed and made choices as to our route even if we are not very conscious of this.
  • Future Files is a book published by Richard Watson. He devised an Extinction timeline which is created under the Creative Commons license. In this Timeline he looks at many products, services and even lifestyles which have been extinct. He then hypothesises as to what might become extinct.
  • In the 1950’s and 1960’s IBM has mainframe computers which worked for teams of slave computers on which word processing would be done as well as other administrative systems. Along came the humble Personal Computer (PC) and the Macintosh which appealed to a new generation of post-war Baby Boomers who craved individuality. The PC grew so powerful and omnipresent so that the whole system dynamic changed with the data and power being decentralised and mobile. The mainframe grew out of favour being overtaken by Microsoft and Apple .. amongst others. IBM has never recovered as it sought to re-invent itself.The manufacturers of paper diaries di not see the PDA coming which created mobile devices to store both calendars and contacts.The PDA in turn did not respond well to the emergence of the iPhone and similar Androids. The PALM company has sunk into the clutches of HP. Nokia had similar market dominance but failed to develop the smart phone staying instead with the simple mobile device.Disruption of a business model can happen very swiftly. Already libraries are deep in the processes of change but to go where??
  • http://librarydigitalprojects.com/2011/04/04/sources-for-disruption-of-library-services/
  • Innocentive started with Eli Lilly. Extended to Proctor and Gamble and General Electric
  • That we make decision is clear; whether we make the correct decision is another matter; often times it is only with hindsight that we will know whether the decisions are indeed correct. What we need to be doing is to minimise the impact of the saying’ with the benefit of hindsight we would have done things differently’.Our choices need to be as informed and future focused as we can. The trick is to work through methodologies which can achieve this future focus minimising the risk of being off target. PICKED THE INTERNET in 1994/5
  • These African Meerkats evidence that we are all different; we all see events from different perspectives with different insights . We are all viewing the same circumstances and yet we all receive different messages or outcomes from the view. Some have telescopic views while others skirt under the radar to gain a slightly different perspective.The overall message is that for an organisation to gain the best view of its future, many views and perspectives are highly desirable. This will create a blended but not diminished view of the potential future.
  • As we walk along the path to our future the distinct view remains indistinct and out of focus; it is not clear. Perhaps part of the view is clear but as we look down the path, the path itself becomes visually narrower and the view off to each side remains obscured and out of our view. It is only when we arrive at a point that that local environment becomes clear and distinct. But the further we trudge along the path the situation remains the same, so we need new tools to assist us.Looking at our image here it easy to see how this could apply to the future of the publishing industry; to the future of e-books; to the future of libraries, of public libraries as community centres and so on.
  • Pierre Wack was the originator of Scenario Planning. Working in the context of change, complexity and uncertainty
  • Scenario Planning is a process to create a new Scenario for the Organisation. In doing this , like the earlier line graph it is usual to create not ONE but TWO or THREE viable Scenarios of Futures. This merely recognises that we do not have ONE future but many.By creating different scenarios we are also extending the planning process while ensuring that good ideas are not lost or dismissed. Far too many good ideas are dropped or dismissed too early in the planning process. These ideas may not survive or may survive in a different form.It is crucial to note the difference between the scenario planning process within the broader strategic planning process. Strategic Planning is concerned with the allocation of resources, staff and dollars to particular projects for the achievement of a strategic objective or set of goals. Scenario Planning is focused on drawing a picture of what kind of future is wanted. This is the hard part. Strategic Planning will create the projects and the plans together with resourcing to make it all happen. Strategic Planning is easy once you have a destination decided and accepted.
  • The difficulty with Strategic Planning is that most of us get last years Plan out of the bottom drawer and try to update it. No real thinking of changed circumstances or a need for different futures Strategic Planning is a highly structured and regimented process.Scenario Planning however allows the imagination and creativity to stay in play for a much longer period.The use of the imagination by a wide group of persons both users and staff in an organisation can begin to release different internal and user perspectives of the organisation’s future. Often times there are conflicting views of what could be done to the whole organisation or to various parts of it. Libraries have rarely backed away from existing services even when new services are really required. Scenario Planning allows an imaginative view of what the organisation should really be doing and arriving at a consensual view of the options.
  • http://www.ala.org/offices/sites/ala.org.offices/files/content/oitp/publications/policybriefs/confronting_the_futu.pdf
  • http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/page/scenarios-2050-0Wild West‘Wild West’ has a no-holds-barred free-for-all flavour. Specifically, this world is dominated by capitalism and corporate power, including the HE sector. Private providers compete with each other and the state to offer students educational services, including information services and learning material. The power lies in the hands of the consumer (‘student’ being a rather old-fashioned term) who is able to pick and choose from courses and learning materials to create a personal educational experience. Beehive‘Beehive’ draws obvious parallels with the hierarchical and structured life of the bee colony, where all is ordered to ensure the common good of the whole community. The Beehive scenario is a world in which society and HE have open values and the state is the primary funder and controller of HE. Its overriding aim is the production of a skilled workforce, and to this end it has created a largely homogenous HE system for the masses while allowing the elite to attend the few traditional institutions. A limited market is used to provide competition within the HE system to drive up quality. Walled GardenA ‘Walled Garden’ is an oasis, shut-off from the outside world. Inhabitants of the garden neither know nor care much about the world beyond the garden’s comforting walls. After all, how could the flowers out there possibly be any better than those within the garden? HEIs in this scenario are ‘Walled Gardens’. The closed nature of society makes HEIs insular and inward-looking, isolated from other institutions by competing value systems. Provision of information services in this world is as much concerned with protecting their own materials from others as it is in enabling access.
  • Innocentive started with Eli Lilly. Extended to Proctor and Gamble and General Electric
  • When you read a poem or hear a joke you are relying on in large part on the right hemisphere and its ability to uncover linguistic associations. Juliet is the sun as a metaphorRight hemisphere and left eye….Need right and leftRight damaged draw houses with doors in space; or humans depicted as a hand
  • The process for the creation of a Preferred Scenario for your library organisation is to do engage your Community fully in the process. It will not be your entire community but as many as you can so that there is a clear recognition that the Library is seeking the views of its community, that it is future focused. Marketing along this process will be crucial.Undertaking research about your operating environment, your wider information environment and staff skill set will be essential to create that knowledge about what is happening and likely to happen into the near future. This will include a lot of management data about what is happening inside and outside the operating environment.Creating Different Scenarios in the form of stories to which the community can relate is a simple but highly effective way to allow for different perspectives and outlooks.Finally to merge and to assemble a Preferred Library Scenario which the community can agree to is the culmination of this process and the start of the hard work to achieve the Scenario.It is however a most satisfying and engaging process linking the users and the staff in a common objective.
  • E-titles not OWNED by Kindle users , for instance
  • http://www.nature.com/news/open-access-the-true-cost-of-science-publishing-1.12676
  • http://www.nature.com/news/open-access-the-true-cost-of-science-publishing-1.12676http://www.nature.com/news/open-access-the-true-cost-of-science-publishing-1.12676
  • http://rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2007/10/extinction_time.htmlhttp://futureexploration.net/
  • http://globalfuturist.com/about-igf/top-ten-trends.html
  • Recent Apple case sued for coluding to raise pricesAmazon and their business model
  • The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
  • The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
  • The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
  • The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
  • Two concepts wrapped in inevitability RISK PROBABILITYThomas Watson who was the CEO of IBM in the early days of the company famously said that “If you want to succeed you need to double your failure rate”. He was talking about risk, engaging with change and different ways of doing things.The ways in which we have previously operated need to change; but in what ways, from what to a new future … which new future??It may be that new services need to be created; it may be that old services need to be withdrawn or made less resource intensive. To do anything entails risk; but risk is not failure. It is a matter of engaging with the levels of risk in a manageable sense.
  • The process for the creation of a Preferred Scenario for your library organisation is to do engage your Community fully in the process. It will not be your entire community but as many as you can so that there is a clear recognition that the Library is seeking the views of its community, that it is future focused. Marketing along this process will be crucial.Undertaking research about your operating environment, your wider information environment and staff skill set will be essential to create that knowledge about what is happening and likely to happen into the near future. This will include a lot of management data about what is happening inside and outside the operating environment.Creating Different Scenarios in the form of stories to which the community can relate is a simple but highly effective way to allow for different perspectives and outlooks.Finally to merge and to assemble a Preferred Library Scenario which the community can agree to is the culmination of this process and the start of the hard work to achieve the Scenario.It is however a most satisfying and engaging process linking the users and the staff in a common objective.
  • 在路口 All stand up close eyes and point the the NORTHWhich direction should be go?? It is so confusing.
  • Each Force Field can create Four Scenarios; Each final Scenarios could contain a good number of Force Field analyses….
  • What could be worse case scenarios?????????
  • The following scenarios encompass 2 important trends: funding for libraries and the library’s place in the market or relevance to today’s user. With the assumption that libraries will experience decreased funding across the board the scenarios project 3 different outcomes pertaining to the library’s relevance in its community: the library will take on increased relevance, the library’s relevance will remain stable but services will become increasingly virtual, and the library’s relevance will decrease.
  • Scenario Planning allows for new stories to infiltrate the planning processes. It is far too easy to accept the status quo or the loudest voices. Allow different ideas to be expressed and held in the planning conversation as long as possible.Dissent is always constructive ion these processes. In researching the future, always look outside of our own profession into the allied areas of the social sciences for different and intriguing insights. They are there. Even journals such as the New Scientist can contriobute great insights into this process.
  • This book is a very practical book describing the process

Rockdale library august 2013.9 ex Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Information Exponentials and Partners 1
  • 2. A view from my home……………. ...my flooded home 3
  • 3. After Friday…. • Outcomes from the Thursday and Friday Workshops • Return to the Community for final input • Select Group to Finalise the Preferred Library Scenario • Strategic Planning or the Allocation of Resources to follow 4
  • 4. 5
  • 5. Aims of this Workshop
  • 6. Objectives for this session • To understand the Rockdale Public Library User and their information need • To discuss the available multiple futures • To understand what we have achieved, what we want to achieve and that which we have not yet begun to think of • To begin to understand what Scenario Planning is as a tool for the modern futureorientated library 7
  • 7. ‘Wei Ji’ CRISIS Danger and Opportunity 8
  • 8. Are we on the same page?? 10
  • 9. 11
  • 10. These three points articulated by Rick Anderson 12
  • 11. What can you see? 13
  • 12. 14
  • 13. What can you see? 15
  • 14. “People want what they want when they want it. They don’t want something else, they don’t want less than they want, and they certainly don’t want it at some other time.” Henry Forsha
  • 15. Staff view of what is done well Collections Physical Collections Up to date collections New release novels Local History research Children’s Collections Good Collections Collection Development Wide and varied Collections Service Modern ‘p’ collection High calibre Service In-house cataloguing Staff skills are well utilised Frontline Customer service Continuous CALD Services Staff skills are well improvements Engage with customers at utilised Supportive teams their level Friendlier staff Experienced staff Early literacy services Programs Various programs, children’s, Local history, CALD Adult Story time Children’s activities Promote technological change to special need groups 17
  • 16. Staff view of what should be done Collections More Faster computers Demise of p newspapers Use of e books E-resources collection User generated content E books Children’s Collections Downloadable ebooks Wide and varied Collections Programs E Resources Cultural varied Programs Computer activities at Branches Frontline Customer service Continuous CALD Services Research community improvements More varied programs needs More early literacy Adult programs services More CALD services Up to date technology Further Technology Digital More technologies computers Availability of i equipment Wi Fi Access ‘disruptions Computer ’ access Remote access to ‘I’ 18
  • 17. Staff view of what should be done 2 Collaboration Liaise with other Population changes Children’s Collections departments Work with other Council Libraries New release novels Engagement with customers Collections distributions Internet power Collaboration Facilities More study room Catalogue in community languages CALD Services Lack of community Meeting rooms!!! space Appropriate space Services Even more Helpful services Tutoring Homework IT Training New emerging assistance technologies Promote databases More Promotion / Marketing Continuous improvements More Shelving /Furnitur e Areas for study/ PCs so on Modern Study spaces Helping unemployed Web site marketing 19
  • 18. Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 20
  • 19. What is the Library …..? • What is the Library doing well? • What does it need to do better?? • THREE OF EACH please
  • 20. Changing the mind-set • Scenario Planning as a process, but not a solution • Scenarios are a form of engagement in the solution • Plan from the Future rather than in the present 22
  • 21. 23
  • 22. What are the influences? • What is the perception? • Is the current view of the ‘Library’ tired or … expected? • Are there too many clichés or ideas on library and content futures not thought through? • Is the environment requiring evidence-based solutions? 24
  • 23. The cool eye of the Future • ‘Future’ is a very real force in our lives • We do not know what the future holds • We use the term very loosely and vaguely • Can be intimidated by the future, or the absence of certainty • Paths to certainty are crucial • The Futures is deep in the EYE… 25
  • 24. 26
  • 25. 27
  • 26. The Rear vision view…. • We can only judge how far we have come by looking backwards • We can only understand our path to the future with a ‘rear vision mirror’ Photo credit: David Hobbs 28
  • 27. The Future Is Not Linear…. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES DECISION POINTS SCENARIO PATH OPTIONS NOW 29
  • 28. 30
  • 29. Extinction Summary 2013 2018 Libraries 2020 Copyright 2025 Desktop Computers Getting Lost Blackberries Video rental stores Blogging 31
  • 30. Disrupted models • IBM Mainframe disrupted by Personal Computer • Diaries… Paper disrupted by PDA • Diaries, Contacts disrupted by PDA, then Mobile phone • Nokia mobile phone disrupted by multifunctioned iPhone, HTA etc • Kodak industries disrupted by Digital technologies Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 32
  • 31. Five Principles of Disruption 1. Companies depend on customers and investors for resources *Do n 2. Small markets do not solve growth needs of large companies 3. Markets that do not exist cannot be analysed *Market r e s e a r c h a n
  • 32. Five Principles …….. 4. Organisation’s capabilities define its disabilities *Capability in processes and values…work against organisation implementing change *Technology improvement provides greater performance than market can absorb 5. Technology supply may not equal market demand
  • 33. Has the Library model been disrupted? 35
  • 34. EXERCISE • Identify examples of potential disruptions: – Could affect our general lives – Could affect our new future library: • Should be within 3 year time-frame
  • 35. • What does the general populace say about Libraries, their present and future purpose? • What do the those responsible for the library say? – Funder? – Governing body such as a Council? – Connections to other cultural bodies? 37
  • 36. 38
  • 37. Which Lane is your Library wanting to be in? 39
  • 38. Build a picture • What is the imaginative story we want to tell folk? • This is a story of why we need a new or revitalised Library • We will do the WHAT (i.e. design and features ) in the next session 40
  • 39. What kinds of data? • What kinds of data do we have? • What kinds of data explain the future needs?? 41
  • 40. More about ….. • Insiders and Outsiders • Over time most of us become Insiders as we master our discipline • InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders • We need to be Outsiders • Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole 42
  • 41. 43
  • 42. Recap • Societal trends affecting Libraries – Disrupted library models • Kind of Library? – Impact of digital? – Partners? • Data? – What is it telling you? • Collections? 44
  • 43. Choices • Many decision points • Better to choose rather than having the future happen to you • So how is it best to inform the decision points? • Engagement in the need equation as well as the choices? • What are the best choices which you have recognised in your own career? • It is your choice 45
  • 44. EXERCISE • Imagine what your library was like in 2002, 2007? • What were some of the characteristics of the organisation then? • What are the three main forces the Library was doing well?
  • 45. “ You can’t stop change from coming… you can only usher it in and work out the terms. If you are smart and a little lucky, you can make it your friend” Barrack Obama Time Nov 17, 2008: 25 47
  • 46. Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 48
  • 47. Path tunnel gets narrower • As we look forwards the definition in the distance becomes very indistinct • The wider environment in the distance; the spaces to each side cannot be seen • It is only as we approach that point, do we gain greater clarity • So ‘seeing’ the future is difficult and predictability is not easily found 49
  • 48. What are Scenarios? • The Long View • Outside-in thinking • Multiple Perspectives • Allow ourselves time to come to a new view, multiple views 50
  • 49. What is Scenario Planning? • Process allows options to remain ‘in consideration’ • Allowing all ideas to come to the fore • Recognising that we do not have one future, but many • How many scenarios? 51
  • 50. Imagination and Stories • Strategic Planning is an important process but effectively it concerns the allocation of resources • Scenario Planning seeks to use the imagination to conjure up new , different options • Imagination needs to be strengthened so that improbable ideas, impractical ideas are not dismissed • Imagination liberates us from past thinking 52
  • 51. The-Library-of-the-Future-Is-web (CC) by Calgary New Central Library 53
  • 52. ALA 2011 Confronting the Future 54
  • 53. http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/page/scenarios-2050-0 55
  • 54. Creativity 56
  • 55. Consider….. “Creativity is the residue of time wasted” Albert Einstein “Always carry a light globe” Bob Dylan 57
  • 56. Milton Glaser, iconic New York designer 58
  • 57. More about ….. • Insiders and Outsiders • Over time most of us become Insiders as we master our discipline • InnoCentive illustrates the power of Outsiders • We need to be Outsiders • Outsiders do not need to see the detailed environment but can see the whole 59
  • 58. 60
  • 59. One sphere to another.. • Right Brain Hemisphere allows us to see the whole • It enables us to find connections between seemingly unconnected things • The Forest ( Right) and the trees (Left) • Prefrontal cortex helps focus attention on the task at hand • Understanding some brain research assists in understanding the the creative process • Blue helps create; Red spells Danger: Yellow is uncomfortable 61
  • 60. 62
  • 61. Research Your Different Scenarios Community Preferred Library Future Stories 63
  • 62. EXERCISE • We imagined what your library was like in 2003, 2008? • How have the characteristics of the organisation changed since then? • What are the forces will you have to deal with in the next three years?
  • 63. Publishers • Digital 1990+ • Elsevier( 1300 titles) and major publishers done retrospective collections • Taken over archiving role .. Implications?? • Changing copyright / licensing /ownership arrangements
  • 64. 66
  • 65. Professional Publishing and Information Universe 7,982 Reed Elsevier Thomson 6,850 6,143 Pearson VNU 4,275 McGraw-Hill 4,229 Reuters 4,220 3,555 Wolters Kluwer 1,730 Scholastic 1,377 Dow Jones 1,119 UBM Springer 880 (a) John Wiley Taylor & Francis Total 2002 Sales (€ in m) 649 293 Note: $/€ FX rate of 1.1322, £/€ FX rate of 0.7090 (a) Combined KAP/Springer entity. STM Legal & Tax Financial B2B Education Media/Marketing Other
  • 66. Some Facts • • • • Book Publishing in 1963 worth US$1.68 billion In 2008 it was worth US$ 40.3 billion Science publishing US$ 9.4 billion in 2011 Science published 1.8 million English articles at US$5,000 per article in 2011 • Estimated that OA average cost of US$660 per article 68
  • 67. Cell Reports costs US$5,000 per article whereas Public Library of Science PLoS, costs US$1,350 Average cost per article US$3,500 to US$4,000 PeerJ and BioMed Central are other OA Journals Industry profit margins are 20% - 30%. 69
  • 68. Steve O'Connor Leadership Future Libraries Wuhan University November, 2011 70
  • 69. A Truly Global Industry Reed Elsevier Wolters Kluwer 5% 8% 28% 46% 49% 64% Pearson VNU 8% 11% 19% 36% 73% % of Revenues Originating from: (a) Includes Canada. US Europe 53%(a) Rest of the World
  • 70. Year 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 90 1979 100 1978 1977 1976 1975 % held Published Output Held Percentage of Australian holdings of English language monographs published overseas 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
  • 71. Long Tail Period Change in archival role…… 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 Use Life Cycle
  • 72. 74
  • 73. 75
  • 74. MOOC
  • 75. 77
  • 76. 78
  • 77. 79
  • 78. James Canton http://www.globalfuturist.com 80
  • 79. What is happening to Content? • Narrowing of the ownership of major publishing houses • Move to sell directly to user and ignoring site licenses • Move to digital delivery – E-books with many different models; limiting access and retention – Will e-books be broken down into smaller digital objects? – E-books and mobile delivery – Learning objects and the development of MOOC’s • Will Open Access and Institutional Repositories thrive? 81
  • 80. Growth of Digital….. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 80% 60% Web 40% Digital 20% Print 0% 1 2 3 Period 4 5
  • 81. Growth of Digital…. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Web 40% 30% Digital 20% 10% Print 0% 1 2 3 Year 4 5
  • 82. EXERCISE • What is your prediction of the content mix NOW and in 3 years time? NOW • Web • Digital • Print % % % 3 YEARS % % %
  • 83. Growth of Digital…. Information Delivered to Library’s Clients 100% 90% 80% 70% Web 60% 50% Digital 40% 30% Print 20% 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5
  • 84. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 87
  • 85. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 88
  • 86. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 89
  • 87. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 90
  • 88. Scenarios can explore issues simply “ ……..The skill set needed by library staff is changing rapidly although there is no funding for staff development or retooling of staff skills. With the emphasis on virtual services, the library is depending more on volunteers to supplement the limited staff who don’t have the requisite technical expertise. An enthusiastic group of Generation Y and younger users is helping the library in its move into the virtual arena by contributing to tagging and other web 2.0 efforts. 91
  • 89. What is ‘Inevitability’? • There is risk in disruption • What is a risk? • Risk is not Failure • What is the level of probability of failure? • Engagement with Risk in a disrupted environment is a crucial strategy “If you want to succeed, double your failure rate” Thomas J Watson 92
  • 90. 93
  • 91. Development of scenarios
  • 92. STRONG WITHIN PARADIGM STRATEGIES PARADIGM CHALLENGING STRATEGIES MINDLESS ACTION FUTURES TRAP STRATEGIC THINKING WEAK STRONG WEAK FUTURE FOCUS
  • 93. Research Your Different Scenarios Community Preferred Library Future Stories 96
  • 94. 97
  • 95. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR USER as READER PUBLISHER LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
  • 96. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights USER as READER PUBLISHER LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
  • 97. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights USER as READER PUBLISHER $$$ LIBRARIAN as FUNDER
  • 98. Publishing cycle USER as AUTHOR Intellectual Property Rights IMPACT OF OPEN ACCESS USER as READER PUBLISHER $$$ LIBRARIAN as FUNDER as PUBLISHER
  • 99. At the Crossroads… 102
  • 100. 103
  • 101. 104
  • 102. 105
  • 103. OUTSOURCING COMPLETE NONE NOW 3 YEARS COMPLETE AUTO INTER-LOCKING Auto-Inter Lending NONE
  • 104. OUTSOURCING THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY COMPLETE NONE NOW 3 YEARS COMPLETE AUTO INTER-LOCKING Auto-Inter Lending NONE
  • 105. THE ANYWHERE LIBRARY OUTSOURCING COMPLETE NONE NOW 3 YEARS COMPLETE AUTO INTER-LOCKING Auto-Inter Lending NONE NOT ENOUGH TO GO AROUND
  • 106. 109
  • 107. What have we learnt ? • The Future isn’t what it used to be • The Future can be what you want it to be • Techniques for developing Business Scenarios – Funding models – Service capability – Skill development ……and planning
  • 108. Think in terms of… • Scenarios create new stories • What contrasting forces will lead to a break through? – Relevance /irrelevance – New Service/ No service – New approach/ same-old-same old – More space/ less space – More budget/less budget • Description of each created quadrant? 111
  • 109. Worse case scenarios • If we are looking for better, what could be worse, far worse? • Unforeseen changes in support/regulation/parent organisation? • Unforeseen publisher vendor mergers or new technologies? • Elections? • Financial disasters? • Earthquakes? 112
  • 110. How many futures? • There are any number of Futures • Incremental approach – Alternative 1 – Official Future – Alternative 2 • Scaled Approach – Conservative – Modest – Challenging • A Preferred Scenario • Preferred Scenario creates the drive for the Strategic Planning 113
  • 111. Increased Relevance “Community coffers have been depleted by crisis responses to a general economic decline along with decreased tax revenue. Funding for libraries is less available. Despite the budget shortfalls however, and perhaps because of it, users continue to use their library in record numbers. The cost to individuals of buying books, home computers and e-book readers, along with fees for accessing digital content continues to be a significant barrier for large segments of the population. The importance of digital resources is rising and the library has positioned itself as a source for this e-content. At the same time, government and other services are continuing to move online and the library is increasingly seen as the source for these services. All libraries are buying fewer print resources and more digital resources every year. The physical facilities are increasingly serving as the gathering place for users – community center, group study space and learning center. The library offers learning programs that are in high demand by the local community and faculty alike and is widely viewed as a valuable partner in community service and education. The library undertakes regular assessments to ascertain both service area needs and to gather data to demonstrate return on investment (ROI). “ 114
  • 112. Plan not for tomorrow • What should the future look like in the 2017? • Start in 2013 and then work toward it • Spend time getting accepted your Preferred Library Scenario 115
  • 113. Avoid Group Thinking • • • • Conformity to norm thinking will limit opportunities Do not just accept stories about library Open up and always encourage different thinking Think about what is being proposed and encourage an environment of thoughtful, questioning dissent • Research outside this discipline 117
  • 114. Do not let the Future happen to you. 118
  • 115. Exercise • Create three Scenarios • Give each of them an imaginative NAME • DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points 119
  • 116. Three Scenarios 120
  • 117. Style of Story 121
  • 118. The Learning Hub “ The Library in 2011 continues to be located on a land-locked campus, in the middle of one of the most densely populated parts of the world, but is now everywhere else at the same time. Its strong reputation for being busy is still true but it has successfully fused the information and study worlds; fused the physical and digital into one; fused locally produced and the commercially produced information for the benefit of the community. This is a seamless world of quality information from the web, large sets of digital books and journals as well as great collections of books. The information is now even more digital and wherever possible print materials are delivered digitally. This is what is now called the LEARNING HUB a more comfortable and dynamic learning environment . The Library has focused its services more on outreach than previously. In reaching out it is both visiting the community wherever it is and also bringing more of that same community to the re-vitalised Library building. In this future, the traditional functions of the Library have been redefined and re-focused to facilitate the growth of knowledge.” 122
  • 119. Emerging Trends in the Broader Environment
  • 120. Exercise • Create three Scenarios • Give each of them an imaginative NAME • DESCRIBE each of them in 6 or 7 Dot points 124
  • 121. Possibilities abound… …those owned by our Clients will always be richer 125
  • 122. 126
  • 123. 127
  • 124. 128
  • 125. 129