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Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
Recycling strategic & speciality metals
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Recycling strategic & speciality metals

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Objective Capital's Rare Earths, Speciality & Strategic Metals Investment Summit 2011 …

Objective Capital's Rare Earths, Speciality & Strategic Metals Investment Summit 2011
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
17 March 2011
Speaker: Peter Willis, Oakdene Hollins

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  • 1. RARE EARTHS, SPECIALITY& STRATEGIC METALSINVESTMENT SUMMIT Recycling strategic & speciality metals Peter Willis – Technical Consultant, Oakdene Hollins IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● THURSDAY, 17 MAR 2011 www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
  • 2. Oakdene Hollins Opportunities in Recycling “Critical Raw Materials” Peter Willis 17th March 2011 2
  • 3. Disclaimer  Oakdene Hollins Ltd believes the content of this presentation to be correct as at the date of writing. The opinions contained in this presentation, except where specifically attributed, are those of Oakdene Hollins Ltd. They are based upon the information that was available to us at the time of writing. We are always pleased to receive updated information and opposing opinions about any of the contents.  The listing or featuring of a particular product or company does not constitute an endorsement by Oakdene Hollins, and we cannot guarantee the performance of individual products or materials. This presentation must not be used to endorse, or suggest our endorsement of, a commercial product or service.  All statements in this presentation (other than statements of historical facts) that address future market developments, government actions and events, may be deemed "forward-looking statements". Although Oakdene Hollins believes the outcomes expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance: actual results or developments may differ materially. Factors that could cause such material differences include emergence of new technologies and applications, changes to regulations, and unforeseen general economic, market or business conditions.  We have prepared this presentation with all reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client. Although we have made every reasonable effort to ensure the accuracy of information presented in this presentation, Oakdene Hollins cannot expressly guarantee the accuracy and reliability of the estimates, forecasts and conclusions herein. Factors such as prices and regulatory requirements are subject to change, and users of the presentation should check the current situation. In addition, care should be taken in using any of the cost information provided as it is based upon specific assumptions (such as scale, location, context, etc.). Clients should satisfy themselves beforehand as to the adequacy of the information in this presentation before making any decisions based on it. 3
  • 4. Oakdene Hollins’ Work  Study into the feasibility of protecting and recovering critical raw materials through infrastructure development in the South East of England (European Pathway to Zero Waste, 2011)  Assessing rare metals as supply chain bottlenecks in priority energy technologies (European Commission Institute of Energy, 2011)  Lanthanides resources and alternatives (Department for Transport, 2010)  Materials security: Ensuring resource availability for the UK economy (Resource Efficiency KTN, 2008) 4
  • 5. Agenda  What are the EU “Critical Raw Materials”?  Best Opportunities for Investors: Aerospace RE Magnets Flat Panel Displays Batteries  Gap Analysis of Opportunities  Conclusions 5
  • 6. Defining “Critical Raw Materials”  European Commission (2010) study “Critical Raw Materials for the EU”  41 metals and minerals assessed  Combination of 2 factors:  Economic Importance  Main applications  Substitutability  Supply Risks  Stability of producing countries  Diversity of supply  Recycling 6
  • 7. 14 “Critical Raw Materials”  Production Volumes (tonnes) Large Volumes Small Volumes Fluorspar – 5,100,000 Indium – 1,200 Graphite – 1,130,000 Tantalum – 1,160 Magnesium – 760,000 Platinum Group – 445 Antimony – 187,000 Beryllium – 140 Rare Earths – 124,000 Germanium – 140 Tungsten – 94,000 Gallium – 118 Niobium – 62,000 Cobalt – 62,000 Source: mostly USGS for 2009; includes recycling where available 7
  • 8. Current Importance of China  China as leading producer of 9 materials:  Rare Earths (97%)  Germanium (71%)  Antimony (91%)  Fluorspar (59%)  Tungsten (81%)  Indium (50%)  Magnesium (77%)  Gallium (32%)  Graphite (71%)  Other Leading Producers:  Brazil: Niobium (92%)  Tantalum:  US: Beryllium (86%) Australia (48%)  Platinum Group:  Congo Kinshasa: South Africa (61%) Cobalt (40%) Source: USGS for 2009 8
  • 9. Demand for “Critical Raw Materials” Forecast CAGR for 2010-2020 (%) 12 10.2 10.1 9.8 10 8 7.3 6.5 6 5.3 4.9 4.2 4 3.4 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 2 0 Indium Niobium Magnesium Tungsten Germanium Antimony Cobalt Tantalum Fluorspar Graphite Gallium Rare Earths Beryllium Platinum Grp 9
  • 10. Forecasts for “Critical Raw Materials” Forecast Surplus (Deficit) - 2020 (%) 10 7 7 5 5 3 2 1 0 -1 -6 -7 -9 -10 -21 0 Antimony Fluorspar Germanium Tungsten Gallium Niobium Magnesium Cobalt -5 Rare Earths Graphite -10 Tantalum Platinum Grp -15 -20 Indium -25 10
  • 11. Prices of “Critical Raw Materials” Price – 3 year Average ($/kg) $100,000 31,847 $10,000 1,151 $1,000 506 499 165 89 $100 40 31 30 12 $10 6.6 3.3 1.16 0.42 $1 Indium Germanium Niobium Magnesium Tungsten Cobalt Antimony Tantalum Fluorspar Gallium Beryllium Rare Earths Graphite Platinum Grp $0 Source: mostly Metal Pages 11
  • 12. Dominant Applications  Seven raw materials have over half their consumption in a single application:  Antimony (Flame Retardants – 72%)  Fluorspar (Chemicals - 60%)  Gallium (Integrated Circuits – 66%)  Germanium (Optics – 55%)  Indium (Flat Panel Displays – 74%)  Magnesium (Casting Alloys – 50%)  Niobium (Steel Alloys – 83%)  Platinum Grp (Catalysts – 60%)  Tungsten (Cemented Carbides – 60%) Source: European Commission (2010) 12
  • 13. Screening Methodology  Selection Criteria:  Include all dominant applications  Analyse markets using multiple raw materials  Rank economic value of raw material contained  Examine carbon impacts of markets  Selected 12 markets for further analysis:  Supply chain maps  Existing practice infrastructure  Technical feasibility & economic viability  Stakeholder consultation 13
  • 14. High Opportunities – Aerospace  Up to 12,000 aircraft to retire by 2020  Move away from ‘wild destruction’  Smart dismantling can recover 85% of weight  Reuse superalloys in engines (Co, Nb, Ta) & landing gear (Be)  Recycle (Al-Mg alloys)  Implementation by accreditation & standards Source: Airbus 14
  • 15. High Opportunities – RE Magnets  Hard disk drives (HDD) as current opportunity  Hitachi with process to cut HDD & remove RE magnets for recycling  Need to segregate, not shred with WEEE  Wind Turbines & (H)EVs as long term opportunity due to long lifetimes Source: Hitachi 15
  • 16. High Opportunities – Flat Panel Displays  80% of In used to make ITO (mostly for FPs)  Recycling of In process waste common  Easy to separate FPs from WEEE as easily recognisable  Pilot scale technologies being developed to remove ITO to recycling  Medium timeframe for Source: Valpak FPs in waste stream Source: WRAP  Solar PV for long term 16
  • 17. High/Med Opportunities – Batteries  800 t of NiMH, 600 t of Li-ion in UK waste  Low collection rates for portable batteries: NiMH (2%) & Li-ion (1.5%)  Need for better collection & labelling  Co recovered but RE & Graphite lost in slag  Optimise recycling  (H)EV batteries as long Source: Valpak term opportunity  Possible (cascaded) reuse 17
  • 18. Other Opportunities Identified  Improve collection:  Beverage Cans (Magnesium)  Catalytic Convertors (Platinum Groups)  Medium Opportunities:  Cemented Carbide Tools (Cobalt, Tungsten)  Catalysts (Rare Earths)  Flame Retardants (Antimony)  Steel Production (Graphite, Fluorspar) 18
  • 19. Raw Material Consumption (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 76 Indium 72 Antimony 68 Magnesium 60 Tungsten 54 Cobalt 52 Platinum Grp 43 Rare Earths 15 Beryllium 8 Niobium Gap Analysis on Recycling 6 Graphite 5 Tantalum 2 Gallium Consumption in High & Medium Opportunities 1 Fluorspar 0 Germanium19
  • 20. Conclusions  Recycling not enough:  High demand growth  Long product lifetimes  Problem of dispersive usage  Recycling can contribute to supply:  Improve collection  Advanced sorting techniques  Implement new technology  Design for disassembly & reuse  Some raw materials with little opportunity:  Dispersive applications  Consumed in process 20
  • 21. Peter Willispeter.willis@oakdenehollins.co.ukwww.oakdenehollins.co.ukRead the full report, availableshortly on our website! 21

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