African mining: a macroeconomic and political analysis


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Objective Capital's Africa Resources Investment Congress 2012
Ironmongers' Hall, City of London
12 June 2012
Speaker: Ed Coughlan, Business Monitor International

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African mining: a macroeconomic and political analysis

  1. 1. AFRICA RESOURCESINVESTMENT CONGRESS African mining: a macroeconomic and political analysis Ed Coughlan – Commodities Analyst, Business Monitor International IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON TUESDAY, 12 JUNE 2012
  2. 2. West African Mining: A Macroeconomic & Political Analysis Business Monitor International Edward Coughlan, Commodities Analyst 12 June 2012, London Commodities Research
  3. 3. Presentation Agenda1. Introduction To Business Monitor International2. West Africa’s Mineral Reserves3. Why Now?4. Macroeconomic Implications5. Risks6. Key Takeouts7. Q&A Commodities Research
  4. 4. 1. Introduction To BMI• Market Intelligence provider producing analysis on Industry Risk,Country Risk, Commodities, Financial Markets and Companies• Covering 175 countries and 22 industry verticals with a historicalexpertise in Emerging Markets• Clients in over 140 countries worldwide including more than 400 ofthe Fortune 500• A unique analytical approach of Total Analysis, Investor Focus andWide-Ranging Systematic Coverage gives us unparalleled expertise inproducing opportunity and risk analysis for our clients Commodities Research
  5. 5. 2. West Africa’s Mineral Reserves• We expect the region to gain greater global importance• Gold & iron ore will be the main growth areas• Substantial reserves of copper, uranium and nickel• China’s interest in the region to continue growing Commodities Research
  6. 6. West Africa To Drive Output Growth Iron Ore Production (mntpa) Commodities Research
  7. 7. Africa’s Importance To Rise Global – Iron Ore Output (% Share) Commodities Research
  8. 8. Chinese Investment To Pour Into Africa Commodities Research
  9. 9. West Africa To Erode South Africa’s Dominance Africa - Gold Output (% Share) Commodities Research
  10. 10. 3. Why Now?• Elevated metal prices by historical standards• Falling grades and rising costs elsewhere• Marked improvements in political risk• Countries are eager to attract investment Commodities Research
  11. 11. Prices To Remain Elevated Metal Prices Rebased Commodities Research
  12. 12. West Africa Shows Greatest Improvement Africa – Regional Business Environment Ratings (Out Of 100) Commodities Research
  13. 13. 4. Macroeconomic Implications• Mining to drive West Africa’s rapid growth in GDP• Substantial inflows of Foreign Direct Investment• Positive impact on infrastructure Commodities Research
  14. 14. Mining Boom To Result In Rapid Growth Average Real GDP Growth Rate (% Chg y-o-y, 2011-2016) Commodities Research
  15. 15. 5. Risks• Political stability remains the key risk• Governments may seek to capitalise on populist support• Greater resource nationalism likely• A sharp decline in metal prices would affect capital expenditure Commodities Research
  16. 16. Capex At Risk Commodities Research
  17. 17. 6. Key Takeouts• We are very optimistic regarding West Africa’s mining sector• Mining will have a substantial impact on GDP & FDI• Large untapped reserves in a range of metals will continue to attract investment, particularly from China.Key Risks• Significant decline in metal prices• Infrastructure deficit• Uptick in political risk Commodities Research
  18. 18. 10. Q&A Business Monitor Commodities Research