Rise and Fall and Rise of eBooks 31 mar 09

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  • 1. Digital Publishing What it is. How we get started . Auckland – 31 March 2009 Wellington – 1 April 2009 Christchurch – 2 April 2009 Thanks to our sponsors
  • 2. Today’s Programme
    • 9:00 -1:00pm Presentations
    • 1:00-2:00pm Working Lunch
    • 2:00pm Open Forum
      • Special session: Google Book Settlement
      • Quickfire Case Studies
      • Open Forum/Q&A
    • 4:00pm Wrap-up
  • 3. The Rise and Fall and Rise of Ebooks Martin Taylor Digital Publishing Forum digitalpublishing.org.nz Thanks to our sponsors
  • 4. What we'll cover
    • The drivers of the industry today
    • Why the rise of ebooks will be different this time
    • Where’s the money ?
    • Some (almost) free things to get you started today 
  • 5. The technology drivers
    • 1971 – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg
    • 1978 - PC
    • 1992 - 'Web 1.0'
    • 1999-2002 – ‘Year of the ebook’
    • 2004 - Web 2.0
    • Now – wider trends will drive ebook adoption
      • Smartphones – Apple, Google Android, Blackberry, Palm
      • Mobile Web
      • Cloud computing and decline of PC
      • New screen technologies and device types
  • 6. Ebook readers today Amazon Kindle 2 (approx 500,000 sold, USA only) Sony Reader (400,000 sold, US, UK) Apple iPhone / iPod Touch (30 million sold In 80 countries)
  • 7. Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads 4 th by downloads Week of 1 March 09
  • 8. Coming up Fujitsu FLEPia colour ‘e-paper mobile terminal’ Plastic Logic Large e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, touchscreen E-ink can be printed onto flexible surfaces Netbooks may become a viable reading platform
  • 9. Technology adoption lifecycle Rogers bell curve
  • 10. US consumer technology adoption Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008
  • 11. Two markets for e-reading
    • Short, casual reading
    • Longer reading , in-depth, immersed experience
    • Amazon targets these two markets with its Kindle strategy
      • Kindle ebook reader, Kindle for iPhone
    • E-reading doesn't have to be better than paper, just better for some situations
    • Casual reading market opportunity is immediately available in NZ
  • 12. In summary: Reasons it will be different this time
    • Reading technology will be good enough
    • Wireless web
    • Likely format standard - ePub
    • Experience from the false start in early 2000s
    • Amazon
      • and Sony .. and Apple .. and Google ..
    • .. Which means ... Readers will demand ebooks
  • 13. How will things change? Some thoughts from TOC ‘09
      • Readers
      • 'reading is becoming a social act ' - Peter Brantley, Digital Library Federation, NY
      • Publishers
      • must become more reader-centric
      • ' community builder '
      • primacy of reader’s positive experience
        • “ how can we make this the best possible experience for the reader? ”
      • but key publisher role remains to screen, improve, finance, sell, distribute, nurture 
  • 14. Where's the money?
    • Less than 1% of trade sales in US
      • But readers are paying
      • Books are 100% 'paid content'
      • Mobile users have been conditioned to pay
    • But opportunities to monetise a bigger market
      • Pass-along readers = more buyers
      • More opportunities to read = more readers
      • Global market opportunity
  • 15. Where's the money? US wholesale ebook revenues December 2008 quarter +100% vs prior year Source: idpf.org
  • 16. How the price of an ebook is set
    • Based on ' p-book '
    • Cost-plus
    • Marginal costing
    • Market-based – optimise price/volume equation based on buyer behaviour
    • Price taker , eg from dominant retailer
    • Other models – subscription, 'literature as service', by chapter, loss-leader for p-book, advertising-supported
  • 17. How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost? Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – online poll conducted February-March 2009
  • 18. Where's the money – Getting started
    • Don't over-invest in the start-up
    • Do start early
      • The cheapest time to buy marketshare is early in a market
    • Pace yourself – it will take longer than you think
    • Use time to reduce capital needed
  • 19. Simple steps you can take today
    • Buy an iPhone or iPod Touch ($389)
      • Install Stanza and start reading
    • Publish and sell your first ebook(s)
      • smashwords.com or calibre ( calibre.kovidgoyal.net )
    • Get your digital rights in order – share of net income?
    • Join a social network and see how they work
      • facebook.com , linkedin.com , twitter.com
    • Keep learning
      • Martin's eReport blog – activitypress.com/ereport
      • Mark your diary : Future of the Book / Future of the Book in Education conference, Auckland 24-25 June
  • 20. Thanks! Martin Taylor web: digitalpublishing.org.nz email: martin@digitalstrategies.co.nz blog: activitypress.com/ ereport