On October 23rd, 2014, we updated our
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Why the rise of ebooks will be different this time
Where’s the money ?
Some (almost) free things to get you started today
The technology drivers
1971 – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg
1978 - PC
1992 - 'Web 1.0'
1999-2002 – ‘Year of the ebook’
2004 - Web 2.0
Now – wider trends will drive ebook adoption
Smartphones – Apple, Google Android, Blackberry, Palm
Cloud computing and decline of PC
New screen technologies and device types
Ebook readers today Amazon Kindle 2 (approx 500,000 sold, USA only) Sony Reader (400,000 sold, US, UK) Apple iPhone / iPod Touch (30 million sold In 80 countries)
Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads 4 th by downloads Week of 1 March 09
Coming up Fujitsu FLEPia colour ‘e-paper mobile terminal’ Plastic Logic Large e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, touchscreen E-ink can be printed onto flexible surfaces Netbooks may become a viable reading platform
Technology adoption lifecycle Rogers bell curve
US consumer technology adoption Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008
Two markets for e-reading
Short, casual reading
Longer reading , in-depth, immersed experience
Amazon targets these two markets with its Kindle strategy
Kindle ebook reader, Kindle for iPhone
E-reading doesn't have to be better than paper, just better for some situations
Casual reading market opportunity is immediately available in NZ
In summary: Reasons it will be different this time
Reading technology will be good enough
Likely format standard - ePub
Experience from the false start in early 2000s
and Sony .. and Apple .. and Google ..
.. Which means ... Readers will demand ebooks
How will things change? Some thoughts from TOC ‘09
'reading is becoming a social act ' - Peter Brantley, Digital Library Federation, NY
must become more reader-centric
' community builder '
primacy of reader’s positive experience
“ how can we make this the best possible experience for the reader? ”
but key publisher role remains to screen, improve, finance, sell, distribute, nurture
Where's the money?
Less than 1% of trade sales in US
But readers are paying
Books are 100% 'paid content'
Mobile users have been conditioned to pay
But opportunities to monetise a bigger market
Pass-along readers = more buyers
More opportunities to read = more readers
Global market opportunity
Where's the money? US wholesale ebook revenues December 2008 quarter +100% vs prior year Source: idpf.org
How the price of an ebook is set
Based on ' p-book '
Market-based – optimise price/volume equation based on buyer behaviour
Price taker , eg from dominant retailer
Other models – subscription, 'literature as service', by chapter, loss-leader for p-book, advertising-supported
How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost? Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – online poll conducted February-March 2009
Where's the money – Getting started
Don't over-invest in the start-up
Do start early
The cheapest time to buy marketshare is early in a market
Pace yourself – it will take longer than you think
Use time to reduce capital needed
Simple steps you can take today
Buy an iPhone or iPod Touch ($389)
Install Stanza and start reading
Publish and sell your first ebook(s)
smashwords.com or calibre ( calibre.kovidgoyal.net )
Get your digital rights in order – share of net income?
Join a social network and see how they work
facebook.com , linkedin.com , twitter.com
Martin's eReport blog – activitypress.com/ereport
Mark your diary : Future of the Book / Future of the Book in Education conference, Auckland 24-25 June
Thanks! Martin Taylor web: digitalpublishing.org.nz email: email@example.com blog: activitypress.com/ ereport