Digital Publishing What it is. How we  get started . Auckland  – 31 March 2009 Wellington  – 1 April 2009 Christchurch  – ...
Today’s Programme <ul><li>9:00 -1:00pm  Presentations </li></ul><ul><li>1:00-2:00pm  Working Lunch </li></ul><ul><li>2:00p...
The  Rise  and  Fall  and  Rise  of Ebooks Martin Taylor Digital Publishing Forum digitalpublishing.org.nz Thanks to our s...
What we'll cover <ul><li>The  drivers  of the industry today </li></ul><ul><li>Why the  rise of ebooks  will be different ...
The technology drivers <ul><li>1971  – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg </li></ul><ul><li>1978  - PC </...
Ebook readers today Amazon Kindle 2 (approx 500,000 sold, USA only) Sony Reader  (400,000 sold, US, UK) Apple iPhone / iPo...
Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads 4 th  by downloads Week of  1 March 09
Coming up Fujitsu FLEPia colour  ‘e-paper mobile terminal’ Plastic Logic Large e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, ...
Technology adoption lifecycle Rogers bell curve
US consumer technology adoption Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008
Two markets for e-reading <ul><li>Short,  casual reading </li></ul><ul><li>Longer reading , in-depth, immersed experience ...
In summary: Reasons it will be  different  this time <ul><li>Reading  technology will be   good enough </li></ul><ul><li>W...
How will things change? Some thoughts from TOC ‘09 <ul><ul><li>Readers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>'reading is becoming  a ...
Where's the money? <ul><li>Less than 1% of trade sales in US </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But  readers are paying </li></ul></ul>...
Where's the money? US wholesale ebook revenues December 2008 quarter  +100% vs prior year Source: idpf.org
How the  price  of an ebook is set <ul><li>Based on ' p-book ' </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-plus </li></ul><ul><li>Marginal  cos...
How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost? Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – o...
Where's the money – Getting started <ul><li>Don't over-invest  in the start-up </li></ul><ul><li>Do  start early </li></ul...
Simple steps you can take  today <ul><li>Buy an  iPhone  or iPod Touch ($389)  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Install  Stanza  and ...
Thanks! Martin Taylor web: digitalpublishing.org.nz email: martin@digitalstrategies.co.nz blog: activitypress.com/ ereport
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Rise and Fall and Rise of eBooks 31 mar 09

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Transcript of "Rise and Fall and Rise of eBooks 31 mar 09"

  1. 1. Digital Publishing What it is. How we get started . Auckland – 31 March 2009 Wellington – 1 April 2009 Christchurch – 2 April 2009 Thanks to our sponsors
  2. 2. Today’s Programme <ul><li>9:00 -1:00pm Presentations </li></ul><ul><li>1:00-2:00pm Working Lunch </li></ul><ul><li>2:00pm Open Forum </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Special session: Google Book Settlement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quickfire Case Studies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Open Forum/Q&A </li></ul></ul><ul><li>4:00pm Wrap-up </li></ul>
  3. 3. The Rise and Fall and Rise of Ebooks Martin Taylor Digital Publishing Forum digitalpublishing.org.nz Thanks to our sponsors
  4. 4. What we'll cover <ul><li>The drivers of the industry today </li></ul><ul><li>Why the rise of ebooks will be different this time </li></ul><ul><li>Where’s the money ? </li></ul><ul><li>Some (almost) free things to get you started today  </li></ul>
  5. 5. The technology drivers <ul><li>1971 – ebook 'invented' by Michael Hart, Project Gutenberg </li></ul><ul><li>1978 - PC </li></ul><ul><li>1992 - 'Web 1.0' </li></ul><ul><li>1999-2002 – ‘Year of the ebook’ </li></ul><ul><li>2004 - Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Now – wider trends will drive ebook adoption </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Smartphones – Apple, Google Android, Blackberry, Palm </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile Web </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cloud computing and decline of PC </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New screen technologies and device types </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. Ebook readers today Amazon Kindle 2 (approx 500,000 sold, USA only) Sony Reader (400,000 sold, US, UK) Apple iPhone / iPod Touch (30 million sold In 80 countries)
  7. 7. Books feature strongly in iPhone App store downloads 4 th by downloads Week of 1 March 09
  8. 8. Coming up Fujitsu FLEPia colour ‘e-paper mobile terminal’ Plastic Logic Large e-ink displays due mid-2009 with wireless, touchscreen E-ink can be printed onto flexible surfaces Netbooks may become a viable reading platform
  9. 9. Technology adoption lifecycle Rogers bell curve
  10. 10. US consumer technology adoption Source: New York Times 10 Feb 2008
  11. 11. Two markets for e-reading <ul><li>Short, casual reading </li></ul><ul><li>Longer reading , in-depth, immersed experience </li></ul><ul><li>Amazon targets these two markets with its Kindle strategy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Kindle ebook reader, Kindle for iPhone </li></ul></ul><ul><li>E-reading doesn't have to be better than paper, just better for some situations </li></ul><ul><li>Casual reading market opportunity is immediately available in NZ </li></ul>
  12. 12. In summary: Reasons it will be different this time <ul><li>Reading technology will be good enough </li></ul><ul><li>Wireless web </li></ul><ul><li>Likely format standard - ePub </li></ul><ul><li>Experience from the false start in early 2000s </li></ul><ul><li>Amazon </li></ul><ul><ul><li>and Sony .. and Apple .. and Google .. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>.. Which means ... Readers will demand ebooks </li></ul>
  13. 13. How will things change? Some thoughts from TOC ‘09 <ul><ul><li>Readers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>'reading is becoming a social act ' - Peter Brantley, Digital Library Federation, NY </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Publishers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>must become more reader-centric </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>' community builder ' </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>primacy of reader’s positive experience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>“ how can we make this the best possible experience for the reader? ” </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>but key publisher role remains to screen, improve, finance, sell, distribute, nurture  </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Where's the money? <ul><li>Less than 1% of trade sales in US </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But readers are paying </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Books are 100% 'paid content' </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile users have been conditioned to pay </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But opportunities to monetise a bigger market </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pass-along readers = more buyers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More opportunities to read = more readers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global market opportunity </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Where's the money? US wholesale ebook revenues December 2008 quarter +100% vs prior year Source: idpf.org
  16. 16. How the price of an ebook is set <ul><li>Based on ' p-book ' </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-plus </li></ul><ul><li>Marginal costing </li></ul><ul><li>Market-based – optimise price/volume equation based on buyer behaviour </li></ul><ul><li>Price taker , eg from dominant retailer </li></ul><ul><li>Other models – subscription, 'literature as service', by chapter, loss-leader for p-book, advertising-supported </li></ul>
  17. 17. How much should the ebook edition of a $30 paper book cost? Source: Digital Publishing Forum: digitalpublishing.org.nz – online poll conducted February-March 2009
  18. 18. Where's the money – Getting started <ul><li>Don't over-invest in the start-up </li></ul><ul><li>Do start early </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The cheapest time to buy marketshare is early in a market </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Pace yourself – it will take longer than you think </li></ul><ul><li>Use time to reduce capital needed </li></ul>
  19. 19. Simple steps you can take today <ul><li>Buy an iPhone or iPod Touch ($389) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Install Stanza and start reading </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Publish and sell your first ebook(s) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>smashwords.com or calibre ( calibre.kovidgoyal.net ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Get your digital rights in order – share of net income? </li></ul><ul><li>Join a social network and see how they work </li></ul><ul><ul><li>facebook.com , linkedin.com , twitter.com </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Keep learning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Martin's eReport blog – activitypress.com/ereport </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mark your diary : Future of the Book / Future of the Book in Education conference, Auckland 24-25 June </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Thanks! Martin Taylor web: digitalpublishing.org.nz email: martin@digitalstrategies.co.nz blog: activitypress.com/ ereport
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