Alan F. Hamlet
•JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
•Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Ef...
Global Climate Change Scenarios
for the PNW
Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2010: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic
Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-...
Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest
http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf
Hydrologic Projections
297
Streamflow
Sites
• Provide a wide range of
products to address multiple
stakeholder needs
• Increase spatial and
tempo...
http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/
Mixed Rain and Snow (Warm):
Nisqually River at La Grande Dam
SWE Runoff
Changes in Hydrologic Extremes
2040s Changes in Flood Risk
Nisqually River at La Grande
A1B B1
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downs...
A1B B1
2040s Changes in Flood Risk
Nisqually River at La Grande
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downs...
Related Impacts
Mass Balance of the Nisqually Glacier
http://faculty.washington.edu/scporter/Rainierglaciers.html
1997
1910
http://www.abbegeomorphology.com/?p=69
Sediment Impacts in the Nisqually Headwaters
Water Resources Management and Structures
Alder Dam
Effects to Stream Temperature
Mantua, N., I. Tohver, A.F. Hamlet, 2010: Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and ...
Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A. (2010) Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal
Zones. Science 328, 1517-1520
Sea Level R...
Hamlet south sound_symp_oct_2010
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  • B1 reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the mid 21st century (low emissions scenario). A1B reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the end of the 21st Century (medium emissions scenario). Error bars are 5th percentile and 95th percentile.
  • The CBCCSP provides complete primary data coverage over the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA. Note that the northern part of the Klamath basin (which drains to CA) is not included. Summary hydrologic products for 297 streamflow locations (selected by the study partners) are supported by the study.
  • The central tendency of the estimated future 100 year flood (Q100) is about 20% higher than the historical number for the A1B emissions scenario. In this case the central tendency of the ensemble is roughly equal to the composite delta analysis (using the average of all the climate model changes in temperature and precipitation). In some other instances these analyses are substantially different.
    The uncertainty estimate deriving from the 10-member Hybrid Delta ensemble supports the conclusion that Q100 will increase (e.g. ~98% confidence), but that higher or lower flood risk is possible.
    These uncertainties are strongly related to decadal precipitation variability in each model simulation. So these uncertainties strongly reflect the differences from decade-to-decade that we have observed in historical records, as opposed to uncertainties in the systematic nature of the global warming signal (e.g. warmer, wetter winters)
  • The river bed has risen 38 ft since 1910. Paul Kennard
  • Transcript of "Hamlet south sound_symp_oct_2010"

    1. 1. Alan F. Hamlet •JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group •Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Puget Sound Region
    2. 2. Global Climate Change Scenarios for the PNW
    3. 3. Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2010: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z 21st Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region
    4. 4. Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest http://cses.washington.edu/db/pdf/wacciach1scenarios642.pdf
    5. 5. Hydrologic Projections
    6. 6. 297 Streamflow Sites • Provide a wide range of products to address multiple stakeholder needs • Increase spatial and temporal resolution • Provide a large ensemble of climate scenarios to assess uncertainties • Address hydrologic extremes (e.g. Q100 and 7Q10) Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Goals and Objectives
    7. 7. http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/
    8. 8. Mixed Rain and Snow (Warm): Nisqually River at La Grande Dam
    9. 9. SWE Runoff
    10. 10. Changes in Hydrologic Extremes
    11. 11. 2040s Changes in Flood Risk Nisqually River at La Grande A1B B1 Historical 10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach
    12. 12. A1B B1 2040s Changes in Flood Risk Nisqually River at La Grande Historical 10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach
    13. 13. Related Impacts
    14. 14. Mass Balance of the Nisqually Glacier http://faculty.washington.edu/scporter/Rainierglaciers.html 1997 1910
    15. 15. http://www.abbegeomorphology.com/?p=69 Sediment Impacts in the Nisqually Headwaters
    16. 16. Water Resources Management and Structures Alder Dam
    17. 17. Effects to Stream Temperature Mantua, N., I. Tohver, A.F. Hamlet, 2010: Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Climatic Change, online first, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2
    18. 18. Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A. (2010) Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones. Science 328, 1517-1520 Sea Level Rise
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