B1 reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the mid 21st century (low emissions scenario). A1B reflects significant greenhouse gas mitigation by the end of the 21st Century (medium emissions scenario). Error bars are 5th percentile and 95th percentile.
The CBCCSP provides complete primary data coverage over the Columbia River basin and coastal drainages in OR and WA. Note that the northern part of the Klamath basin (which drains to CA) is not included. Summary hydrologic products for 297 streamflow locations (selected by the study partners) are supported by the study.
The central tendency of the estimated future 100 year flood (Q100) is about 20% higher than the historical number for the A1B emissions scenario. In this case the central tendency of the ensemble is roughly equal to the composite delta analysis (using the average of all the climate model changes in temperature and precipitation). In some other instances these analyses are substantially different. The uncertainty estimate deriving from the 10-member Hybrid Delta ensemble supports the conclusion that Q100 will increase (e.g. ~98% confidence), but that higher or lower flood risk is possible. These uncertainties are strongly related to decadal precipitation variability in each model simulation. So these uncertainties strongly reflect the differences from decade-to-decade that we have observed in historical records, as opposed to uncertainties in the systematic nature of the global warming signal (e.g. warmer, wetter winters)
The river bed has risen 38 ft since 1910. Paul Kennard
Transcript of "Hamlet south sound_symp_oct_2010"
Alan F. Hamlet
•JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
•Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
Effects of Projected Climate Change
on the Hydrology of the Puget Sound
• Provide a wide range of
products to address multiple
• Increase spatial and
• Provide a large ensemble of
climate scenarios to assess
• Address hydrologic
extremes (e.g. Q100 and
Columbia Basin Climate Change
Goals and Objectives
Mass Balance of the Nisqually Glacier
Sediment Impacts in the Nisqually Headwaters
Water Resources Management and Structures
Effects to Stream Temperature
Mantua, N., I. Tohver, A.F. Hamlet, 2010: Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime
stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State,
Climatic Change, online first, doi: 10.1007/s10584-010-9845-2
Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A. (2010) Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal
Zones. Science 328, 1517-1520
Sea Level Rise
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