NVAR Economic Summit
The Shape of the Housing Recovery
Stephen S. Fuller, PhD
Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional Analysis
School of Public Policy, George Mason University
September 23, 2009

U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Quarterly Change: 2006 – 2011
Forecast > > > > > > > > >
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Global Insight

The Washington Economy

US GDP and Washington GRP
%
Washington GRP
US GDP

Annual Job Change
Washington MSA
000s
80 Annual Data Annual Month over Year
60
2008 2009
40
20
0
-20
40
-40
-60
20
20
20
20
20
20
Fe
Fe
Ja
Mar
M
Ap
May
M
Ju
Ju
Au
Se
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ja
Mar
M
Ap
May
M
Ju
Ju
Au
an
un
ul
an
un
ul
002
003
004
005
006
007
eb
eb
pr
ug
ep
pr
ug
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Job Markets
(000s)
Job Change Aug 08 – Aug 09
100
Washington 42,100
W hi t – 42 100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
-250
-300
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change by Sector
Aug 2008 – Aug 2009
Washington MSA
g Total - 42 100
42,100
(000s)
(000 )
Prof. & Bus. Svcs 1
Federal Govt. 12
Educ & Health Svcs 4
State & Local Govt -3
Retail Trade -13
Leisure & Hosp. -4
Construction -17
Other Services -3
3
Financial -7
Information -6
Manufacturing
M f t i -3
Wlse Trade -3
Transp. & Util. -1
-20 -10 0 10 20
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rate
%
9.7
U.S.
6.2
Washington
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

15 Largest Job Markets
Ranked by Unemployment Rate
% July 2009
US
9.7
97
6.2
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

Housing Market Trends

New Home Sales
January – June Each Year
14000
12000
Washington Metro
10000
8000
Northern Virginia
6000
4000
2000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Hanley Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Sales, Actual and
Forecast to Sept. 2010
Northern Virginia
g
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate
g
Washington Metro, All Housing Types
%
2006 2007 2008 2009
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Oct
Oct
Oct
003
005
Apr
Dec
Apr
Dec
Apr
Dec
Apr
Feb
Jun
Aug
Feb
Jun
Aug
Feb
Jun
Aug
Feb
Jun
O
O
O
A
A
A
A
D
D
D
20
20
A
A
A
F
F
F
F
J
J
J
J
Source: Hanley Wood, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Percent Change in
Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-the-Year-Change
% 2000 – 2009, MSA
,
Jan-May, 2006 >100 %
Aug =
- 21.7%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Units Sold Percent Change
By Subregion
% All Housing Types
2007 2008 2009
SMD
DC
MSA
NVA
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Active Listings Per Sale
August Each Year
PW
LDN
FFX MONT
DC
ARL
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Active Listings Per Sale
August Each Year – Metro Area
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Sales – NVAR
g
(3-month moving average)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000 TOT
1500
1000
500
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Sales – NVAR
g
(3-month moving average)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000 TOT
1500
1000 <400
500
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Sales – NVAR
g
(3-month moving average)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000 TOT
1500
1000 400-750 <400
500
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Sales – NVAR
g
(3-month moving average)
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000 TOT
1500
1000 400-750 <400
500
>750
0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Housing Sales – NVAR
% of Total Sales <$400,000
$
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Washington MSA Average Sales Price
All Housing Types
$600,000
$600 000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sales Price Percent Change
Washington MSA
All Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sales Price Percent Change
Suburban Maryland
All Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Average Sales Price Percent Change
Northern Virginia
All Housing Types
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Economic Forecast

Economic Outlook (GRP)
Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
g
(Annual % Change)
%
NV
MSA
SM
DC
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Employment Change by
S b t t Region (000s)
Sub-state R i (000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
D.C.
DC 5.3
53 4.2
42 3.0
30 4.8
48 6.8
68 6.4
64 7.0
70 7.5
75
Sub
Sub. MD 4.8 3.4 -8.5
8.5 7.2 8.7 10.6 13.0 15.1
No. VA 13.2 9.0 -15.5 12.9 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7
REGION 23.3 16.6 -21.0 23.9 34.9 42.4 47.6 53.3
Average A
A Annual Ch
l Change 1990 2008 = 45 000
1990-2008 45,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

GDP/GRP
%
2000 - 2014
8
6
Washington
4
2
U.S.
0
-2
-4
4
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

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