CRS Chapter Meeting Special Presentation by Christine M. Todd, CEO December 2, 2010Bonnie Kyte- Chairman
What’s happening in our market?• Northern Virginia market – In some ways we are like the rest of the country – In others ways we are very different – And in many ways we have one of the best markets in the nation!
Have we hit the bottom?-Indicators say “yes” and “no”!-Recovery is slow and painful-First time buyers and cash investorsdrove first half of 2010 recovery-Prices up, inventory weak but we see fewershort sales (thank goodness)
NAR: Record number of first-time homebuyers (Survey finds most buyers applied for tax credits) • First-time homebuyers accounted for half of all home sales from July 2009 through June 2010 based on 8,449 responses to a survey sent nationwide. This is the highest share of first- time-buyer purchases in the history of the survey, which dates back to 1981.
Tax Credit was Huge Success1 million additional buyers1 million fewer inventory unitsReduced months supply by 2 to 2.5 monthsPreserved Housing Wealth by nearly $1 trillionLimited future foreclosures
Local Signs of RecoveryHome prices stabilizing with small increasesInvestors still purchasing inventory with cashJob losses and unemployment show improvementin our regionEconomy will continue to slowly expand in 2011 Source: Gerald L. Gordon ,PH.D President and CEO, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority
The U.S. market today• The economy is growing slowly• The private sector is finally creating some jobs, corporate profits are up• Consumer confidence remains low, though clearly off bottom Source: NAR
Today’s Real Estate Market• 30-year mortgage rate is at generational lows• National median-home price is stabilizing• Inventory is still very high• Foreclosures more of a problem than short sales Source: NAR
Today’s Real Estate Market • FORECLOSURE MESSCaused slow down in settlementsNAR opposed nationwide moratoriumExposed weaknesses in financial regulationsHurt consumer confidence
Suggested Reading• “FINANCIAL SHOCK” Global Panic and Government Bailouts“and what must be done to fix it” By: MARK ZANDI
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HVCC ….Help or Hurt?• Appraisals still a problem, NVAR leadership will continue dialogue and seek solutions.
Title Insurers React • Fidelity National Financial announces “ banks and lenders must vouch for the accuracy of their mortgage documents before they will write insurance”
Economic and Market Facts• Most economists expect home values to rise in upcoming years, though not at a fast pace.• Bad loans are nearly always made in good times. But recently originated loans are performing very well.• Patient homeowners over the long-term do much better than renters in attaining wealth. Source: NAR
Return to Normalcy• Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to 2010• Sales Boomed and Retreated• Prices Overshot and Corrected• Fundamentals Back to Justifiable Levels• Long-standing Housing Policy still in place, – but NAR keeping a watchful eye!
Long Standing Housing Policy• Mortgage Interest Deduction – If eliminated, estimated about a 15% loss in home values• FHA – Self-financing without ever needing taxpayer funds, but threatened• Fannie and Freddie – Made big mistakes and need to be restructured
Upside to the Downturn• Consumers are paying off debts and credit cards• Easy credit is out but……………….• Buyers have to really qualify for a loan• Lender’s are under the microscope• New housing stock will be smaller, greener and more affordable
Home Ownership Matters Campaign• Aggressive media & consumer outreach• Research, white papers• Coalition building
Public Awareness Campaign: What Matters Most ? • “What Matters Most ?” reminds homeowners, buyers and sellers alike that homeownership remains the foundation of the American Dream. The advertising materials underscore the value that REALTORS® bring to communities and their clients, and explain that REALTORS® are prepared— to show you options, answer your questions and guide you home.
Why Buy?• Get a good deal now• Low mortgages• Save on taxes• It’s yours!• A better home• Forced savings• A lot to choose from• Sooner or later -- the market will clear
First-time Buyers Median Household Income $59,900 Median Square Feet 1540 Median Age 30
Home Owners Net Worth Is More Than 40 Times That of Renters
Economists Expect PriceIncreases in Upcoming Years Northern Virginia Region already beyond these national estimates
Sample Markets with Price Increases % change from one year ago 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 San Diego Orange Cty Boston Houston Buffalo Washington Columbia Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR
Home SalesDipping in 3rd quarter of 2010, then rising
100 110 120 130 70 80 90 2001 - Feb 2001 - Jul 2001 - Dec2002 - May 2002 - Oct2003 - Mar2003 - Aug 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jun2004 - Nov 2005 - Apr 2005 - Sep 2006 - Feb 2006 - Jul 2006 - Dec2007 - May 2007 - Oct2008 - Mar2008 - Aug 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jun2009 - Nov Tax Credit Impact 2010 - Apr Pending Contracts on Existing Homes
New Homes Construction 500,000 2.1new starts million VS in 2010 In 2006
Future Housing Shortage? Year Housing Starts Historical Normal Cumulative Surplus/Deficit2003 1.85 million 1.6 million + 0.25 million2004 1.95 million 1.6 million + 0.60 million2005 2.07 million 1.6 million + 1.07 million2006 1.81 million 1.6 million + 1.28 million2007 1.34 million 1.6 million +1.02 million2008 0.90 million 1.6 million + 0.32 million2009 0.55 million 1.6 million - 0.73 million2010 forecast 0.68 million 1.6 million -1.65 million2011 forecast 0.95 million 1.6 million - 2.30 million Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR
Northern Virginia Market• Population is growing• New jobs are being created• Unemployment around 5% and (would be lower if population were not growing)• Prices up, inventory steady• Foreclosure/Short Sales market shrinking
Dr. Yun’s predictions• “Over the next 12 months, I will be watching Lexington, KY and Washington, DC to outperform the rest of the country”! • May, 2010
NVAR home prices starting to rise NVAR statistics on prices Record high $569,826 June, 2007 Record low $376,669 Jan., 2009 2010 first half average sales price - $472,762 October average sales price- $ 470,882• Over 7% increase over last year
Commercial Real Estate…Lagging• Lagging behind economic recovery• Investment activity still down• NOTE: lowest multi-family vacancy rates will be in – San Jose, Pittsburg and Washington DC, region
Real Estate Data From Real Estate Business IntelligenceMRIS and RBI are pleased to jointly announce the launch ofthe website for the new MRIS subsidiary, Real EstateBusiness Intelligence, the only company in the region thatprovides timely, online access to statisticalinformation directly from the Multiple Listing Service(MLS).Full reports on RBI market statistics for all jurisdictions in theMRIS region are available through the RBI website at http://www.rbintel.com/statistics
NVAR Counties- October, 2010 StatsCounty Active New Pending Sold Average Median Sale SaleAlexandria City 907 242 179 120 $462,796 $435,500Arlington 938 310 183 172 $558,039 $506,250CountyFairfax City 121 41 26 19 $381,000 $375,000Fairfax County 5220 1499 1199 911 $456,433 378,000Falls Church 59 22 14 7 $592,257 $488,400City
2010 Ave. Sales Price (NVAR) October Record High- $578,689 (June 2006) Record Low- $376,669 (January 2009)600,000 $524,236 $520,829500,000 $470,882 $427,502 $424,510400,000300,000200,000100,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Economic GrowthSlow growth, but still positive
Benefits of Living in Fairfax County Unemployment rate is only 4.5% Our schools provide a quality workforce Our area has the highest median family income in the U.S. Major companies relocated here, VW, Hilton, CSC, SAIC……… Listed as one of the safest communities in AmericaSource: Jerry Gordon, President and CEO of the Fairfax EDA
Recent Major Economic Development Activity in Fairfax County• Northrop Grumman selects Fairfax County for new corporate headquarters, joining• CSC• Hilton Worldwide• Science Applications International Corporation• Volkswagen of America
NAR Challenges in the Coming Years • Ensure flow of capital into the Real Estate market • Creating access to affordable property insurance • Preserving the value of homeownership • Improving professionalism of REALTORS® • Fighting the attack on Home Ownership • MID……are you ready for the fight?
Did you pay your fair share? Agent- $40 Broker- $99
As always, NVAR is at your service! Classes Available Continuing Education Pre/Post Licensing Broker CE Eco Broker Green Designation GRI, Graduate Realtor® Institute ABR, Accredited Buyer Representative Click Shop Online SFR-Short Sales and Foreclosure re- button at sale Commercial Real Estate Appraisal Education nvar.com Social Media Technology Series
December OfferingsBuilding Your Tribe (Dec. 15 @Fairfax)Creating a Complete Marketing Plan with Internet toolsAccredited Buyer Representative Designation-ABR(Dec. 13 & 14 @ Herndon)Short Sales and Foreclosures (Dec. 15 @Herndon)GFE & HUD-1 Rules (Dec. 6 @ Fairfax)
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