CRS Chapter Meeting    Special Presentation by    Christine M. Todd, CEO      December 2, 2010Bonnie Kyte- Chairman
What’s happening in our market?• Northern Virginia market  – In some ways we are like the rest of the    country  – In oth...
Have we hit the bottom?-Indicators say “yes” and “no”!-Recovery is slow and painful-First time buyers and cash investorsdr...
NAR: Record number of first-time homebuyers  (Survey finds most buyers applied for tax credits)                           ...
Tax Credit was Huge Success1 million additional buyers1 million fewer inventory unitsReduced months supply by  2 to 2.5 mo...
Local Signs of RecoveryHome prices stabilizing with small increasesInvestors still purchasing inventory with cashJob lo...
The U.S. market today• The economy is growing slowly• The private sector is finally creating some  jobs, corporate profits...
Today’s Real Estate Market• 30-year mortgage rate is at  generational lows• National median-home price is  stabilizing• In...
Today’s Real Estate Market    • FORECLOSURE MESSCaused slow down in settlementsNAR opposed nationwide moratoriumExposed we...
Suggested Reading• “FINANCIAL SHOCK”      Global Panic and     Government Bailouts“and what must be done to fix it”      B...
Realtor. orgNAR Info Centrals Library Catalog  • NAR members and Association staff can borrow up to threeelectronic books,...
HVCC ….Help or Hurt?• Appraisals still a  problem, NVAR  leadership will  continue dialogue  and seek solutions.
Title Insurers React • Fidelity National Financial announces “ banks and lenders must vouch for the   accuracy of their mo...
Economic and Market Facts• Most economists expect home values to rise in  upcoming years, though not at a fast pace.• Bad ...
Return to Normalcy• Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to  2010• Sales Boomed and Retreated• Prices Overshot and Corrected•...
Long Standing Housing Policy• Mortgage Interest Deduction   – If eliminated, estimated about a 15% loss in     home values...
Upside to the Downturn• Consumers are paying off debts and credit  cards• Easy credit is out but……………….• Buyers have to re...
Home Ownership  Matters Campaign• Aggressive media &  consumer outreach• Research, white  papers• Coalition building
Public Awareness Campaign:    What Matters Most ?             • “What Matters Most ?”               reminds homeowners, bu...
Why Buy?• Get a good deal now• Low mortgages• Save on taxes• It’s yours!• A better home• Forced savings• A lot to choose f...
First-time Buyers      Median     Household      Income      $59,900                      Median                    Square...
Home Owners Net Worth Is More Than 40 Times That of Renters
Housing Wealth Gains
Economists Expect PriceIncreases in Upcoming Years   Northern Virginia Region already   beyond these national estimates
Sample Markets with Price Increases  % change from one year ago  16  14  12  10   8   6   4   2   0       San Diego Orange...
Home SalesDipping in 3rd quarter of 2010, then rising
100               110               120               130                70                80                90 2001 - Feb...
Existing Home SalesSource: NAR
Homeownership Rate forSelected Years (1900 – 2010)
Housing StartsGradually rising
New Homes Construction 500,000            2.1new starts         million             VS in 2010          In 2006
Future Housing Shortage?       Year         Housing Starts    Historical Normal       Cumulative                          ...
Northern Virginia Market• Population is growing• New jobs are being created• Unemployment around 5% and (would be lower if...
Dr. Yun’s predictions• “Over the next 12 months, I will be watching Lexington, KY and Washington, DC to outperform the res...
NVAR home prices starting to rise NVAR statistics on prices  Record high $569,826 June, 2007  Record low $376,669 Jan.,...
Commercial Real Estate…Lagging• Lagging behind economic recovery• Investment activity still down• NOTE: lowest multi-famil...
Real Estate Data From  Real Estate Business IntelligenceMRIS and RBI are pleased to jointly announce the launch ofthe webs...
Market Watch Videos  rbintel.com/marketwatch-videos
NVAR.COM•   Market Statistics Monthly Reports•   Quarterly Rental Statistics•   Annual Sales Summary•   Year-End Report•  ...
NVAR Counties- October, 2010 StatsCounty            Active New    Pending   Sold    Average   Median                      ...
Supply and Demand (NVAR)
2010 Sold Listings October3,000     2,6462,500                  1,9012,000                          1,498           1,457 ...
2010 Under Contracts October2,500                                1,9902,000        1,542           1,604            1,6011...
2010 Ave. Sales Price (NVAR) October           Record High- $578,689 (June 2006)          Record Low- $376,669 (January 20...
Economic GrowthSlow growth, but still positive
Benefits of Living in Fairfax County           Unemployment rate is only 4.5%           Our schools provide a quality work...
Recent Major Economic Development      Activity in Fairfax County• Northrop Grumman selects Fairfax County for  new corpor...
NAR Challenges in the Coming Years • Ensure flow of capital into the Real Estate   market • Creating access to affordable ...
Did you pay your fair share?   Agent- $40    Broker- $99
http://www.nvar.com/
As always,                                            NVAR is at your                                               servic...
December OfferingsBuilding Your Tribe (Dec. 15 @Fairfax)Creating a Complete Marketing Plan with Internet toolsAccredited B...
Take advantage of this new member benefit forall 2011 members by learning how to make use of these form fillable documents...
The IdentitySecure® Program for REALTORS® is thenewest offering from NARs REALTOR Benefits® Programand is among the most c...
NEW! Auto Loan Offer Get a fixed low rate on a new or used vehicle with a 20%                       down payment.NEW! Indi...
Health Insurance  Realtors® Core Health Insurance Plan       • Guaranteed acceptance • Low cost starting at $70.69 per mon...
Dental InsuranceFor more information: visit us online at    RealtorsDentalInsurance.com
REALTOR.ORG
houselogic.com
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
December 2010 CRS Meeting
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December 2010 CRS Meeting

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Presentation by Christine Todd, CEO of NVAR, at the annual CRS Chapter meeting at our Fairfax Headquarters.

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  • Hey Bonnie, I think more people would come to this if we knew when they were. Can you publish the 2011 Scedule now?

    Connie Vanderpool, CRS, ABR, CIPS, CDPE
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
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December 2010 CRS Meeting

  1. 1. CRS Chapter Meeting Special Presentation by Christine M. Todd, CEO December 2, 2010Bonnie Kyte- Chairman
  2. 2. What’s happening in our market?• Northern Virginia market – In some ways we are like the rest of the country – In others ways we are very different – And in many ways we have one of the best markets in the nation!
  3. 3. Have we hit the bottom?-Indicators say “yes” and “no”!-Recovery is slow and painful-First time buyers and cash investorsdrove first half of 2010 recovery-Prices up, inventory weak but we see fewershort sales (thank goodness)
  4. 4. NAR: Record number of first-time homebuyers (Survey finds most buyers applied for tax credits) • First-time homebuyers accounted for half of all home sales from July 2009 through June 2010 based on 8,449 responses to a survey sent nationwide. This is the highest share of first- time-buyer purchases in the history of the survey, which dates back to 1981.
  5. 5. Tax Credit was Huge Success1 million additional buyers1 million fewer inventory unitsReduced months supply by 2 to 2.5 monthsPreserved Housing Wealth by nearly $1 trillionLimited future foreclosures
  6. 6. Local Signs of RecoveryHome prices stabilizing with small increasesInvestors still purchasing inventory with cashJob losses and unemployment show improvementin our regionEconomy will continue to slowly expand in 2011 Source: Gerald L. Gordon ,PH.D President and CEO, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority
  7. 7. The U.S. market today• The economy is growing slowly• The private sector is finally creating some jobs, corporate profits are up• Consumer confidence remains low, though clearly off bottom Source: NAR
  8. 8. Today’s Real Estate Market• 30-year mortgage rate is at generational lows• National median-home price is stabilizing• Inventory is still very high• Foreclosures more of a problem than short sales Source: NAR
  9. 9. Today’s Real Estate Market • FORECLOSURE MESSCaused slow down in settlementsNAR opposed nationwide moratoriumExposed weaknesses in financial regulationsHurt consumer confidence
  10. 10. Suggested Reading• “FINANCIAL SHOCK” Global Panic and Government Bailouts“and what must be done to fix it” By: MARK ZANDI
  11. 11. Realtor. orgNAR Info Centrals Library Catalog • NAR members and Association staff can borrow up to threeelectronic books, digital audios and/or videos at no cost, through the Virtual Library eBooks Collection. • Up to three books, tapes, CDs and/or DVDscan be borrowed for 30 days from the Library for a nominal fee of $10.eBooks.realtor.org - Check out our ebooks! Hundreds of titles to download and read on your PDA, laptop, smartphone, or digital audio player. Download the eBooks Quick Start Guide to begin.http://www.realtor.org/library/virtual_library/catalog
  12. 12. HVCC ….Help or Hurt?• Appraisals still a problem, NVAR leadership will continue dialogue and seek solutions.
  13. 13. Title Insurers React • Fidelity National Financial announces “ banks and lenders must vouch for the accuracy of their mortgage documents before they will write insurance”
  14. 14. Economic and Market Facts• Most economists expect home values to rise in upcoming years, though not at a fast pace.• Bad loans are nearly always made in good times. But recently originated loans are performing very well.• Patient homeowners over the long-term do much better than renters in attaining wealth. Source: NAR
  15. 15. Return to Normalcy• Unprecedented Boom and Bust: 2000 to 2010• Sales Boomed and Retreated• Prices Overshot and Corrected• Fundamentals Back to Justifiable Levels• Long-standing Housing Policy still in place, – but NAR keeping a watchful eye!
  16. 16. Long Standing Housing Policy• Mortgage Interest Deduction – If eliminated, estimated about a 15% loss in home values• FHA – Self-financing without ever needing taxpayer funds, but threatened• Fannie and Freddie – Made big mistakes and need to be restructured
  17. 17. Upside to the Downturn• Consumers are paying off debts and credit cards• Easy credit is out but……………….• Buyers have to really qualify for a loan• Lender’s are under the microscope• New housing stock will be smaller, greener and more affordable
  18. 18. Home Ownership Matters Campaign• Aggressive media & consumer outreach• Research, white papers• Coalition building
  19. 19. Public Awareness Campaign: What Matters Most ? • “What Matters Most ?” reminds homeowners, buyers and sellers alike that homeownership remains the foundation of the American Dream. The advertising materials underscore the value that REALTORS® bring to communities and their clients, and explain that REALTORS® are prepared— to show you options, answer your questions and guide you home.
  20. 20. Why Buy?• Get a good deal now• Low mortgages• Save on taxes• It’s yours!• A better home• Forced savings• A lot to choose from• Sooner or later -- the market will clear
  21. 21. First-time Buyers Median Household Income $59,900 Median Square Feet 1540 Median Age 30
  22. 22. Home Owners Net Worth Is More Than 40 Times That of Renters
  23. 23. Housing Wealth Gains
  24. 24. Economists Expect PriceIncreases in Upcoming Years Northern Virginia Region already beyond these national estimates
  25. 25. Sample Markets with Price Increases % change from one year ago 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 San Diego Orange Cty Boston Houston Buffalo Washington Columbia Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR
  26. 26. Home SalesDipping in 3rd quarter of 2010, then rising
  27. 27. 100 110 120 130 70 80 90 2001 - Feb 2001 - Jul 2001 - Dec2002 - May 2002 - Oct2003 - Mar2003 - Aug 2004 - Jan 2004 - Jun2004 - Nov 2005 - Apr 2005 - Sep 2006 - Feb 2006 - Jul 2006 - Dec2007 - May 2007 - Oct2008 - Mar2008 - Aug 2009 - Jan 2009 - Jun2009 - Nov Tax Credit Impact 2010 - Apr Pending Contracts on Existing Homes
  28. 28. Existing Home SalesSource: NAR
  29. 29. Homeownership Rate forSelected Years (1900 – 2010)
  30. 30. Housing StartsGradually rising
  31. 31. New Homes Construction 500,000 2.1new starts million VS in 2010 In 2006
  32. 32. Future Housing Shortage? Year Housing Starts Historical Normal Cumulative Surplus/Deficit2003 1.85 million 1.6 million + 0.25 million2004 1.95 million 1.6 million + 0.60 million2005 2.07 million 1.6 million + 1.07 million2006 1.81 million 1.6 million + 1.28 million2007 1.34 million 1.6 million +1.02 million2008 0.90 million 1.6 million + 0.32 million2009 0.55 million 1.6 million - 0.73 million2010 forecast 0.68 million 1.6 million -1.65 million2011 forecast 0.95 million 1.6 million - 2.30 million Source: Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.,Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of NAR
  33. 33. Northern Virginia Market• Population is growing• New jobs are being created• Unemployment around 5% and (would be lower if population were not growing)• Prices up, inventory steady• Foreclosure/Short Sales market shrinking
  34. 34. Dr. Yun’s predictions• “Over the next 12 months, I will be watching Lexington, KY and Washington, DC to outperform the rest of the country”! • May, 2010
  35. 35. NVAR home prices starting to rise NVAR statistics on prices Record high $569,826 June, 2007 Record low $376,669 Jan., 2009 2010 first half average sales price - $472,762 October average sales price- $ 470,882• Over 7% increase over last year
  36. 36. Commercial Real Estate…Lagging• Lagging behind economic recovery• Investment activity still down• NOTE: lowest multi-family vacancy rates will be in – San Jose, Pittsburg and Washington DC, region
  37. 37. Real Estate Data From Real Estate Business IntelligenceMRIS and RBI are pleased to jointly announce the launch ofthe website for the new MRIS subsidiary, Real EstateBusiness Intelligence, the only company in the region thatprovides timely, online access to statisticalinformation directly from the Multiple Listing Service(MLS).Full reports on RBI market statistics for all jurisdictions in theMRIS region are available through the RBI website at http://www.rbintel.com/statistics
  38. 38. Market Watch Videos rbintel.com/marketwatch-videos
  39. 39. NVAR.COM• Market Statistics Monthly Reports• Quarterly Rental Statistics• Annual Sales Summary• Year-End Report• Quarterly Trends in Housing Publication
  40. 40. NVAR Counties- October, 2010 StatsCounty Active New Pending Sold Average Median Sale SaleAlexandria City 907 242 179 120 $462,796 $435,500Arlington 938 310 183 172 $558,039 $506,250CountyFairfax City 121 41 26 19 $381,000 $375,000Fairfax County 5220 1499 1199 911 $456,433 378,000Falls Church 59 22 14 7 $592,257 $488,400City
  41. 41. Supply and Demand (NVAR)
  42. 42. 2010 Sold Listings October3,000 2,6462,500 1,9012,000 1,498 1,457 1,6041,500 1,123 1,2291,000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  43. 43. 2010 Under Contracts October2,500 1,9902,000 1,542 1,604 1,6011,500 1,2321,000 500 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  44. 44. 2010 Ave. Sales Price (NVAR) October Record High- $578,689 (June 2006) Record Low- $376,669 (January 2009)600,000 $524,236 $520,829500,000 $470,882 $427,502 $424,510400,000300,000200,000100,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  45. 45. Economic GrowthSlow growth, but still positive
  46. 46. Benefits of Living in Fairfax County Unemployment rate is only 4.5% Our schools provide a quality workforce Our area has the highest median family income in the U.S. Major companies relocated here, VW, Hilton, CSC, SAIC……… Listed as one of the safest communities in AmericaSource: Jerry Gordon, President and CEO of the Fairfax EDA
  47. 47. Recent Major Economic Development Activity in Fairfax County• Northrop Grumman selects Fairfax County for new corporate headquarters, joining• CSC• Hilton Worldwide• Science Applications International Corporation• Volkswagen of America
  48. 48. NAR Challenges in the Coming Years • Ensure flow of capital into the Real Estate market • Creating access to affordable property insurance • Preserving the value of homeownership • Improving professionalism of REALTORS® • Fighting the attack on Home Ownership • MID……are you ready for the fight?
  49. 49. Did you pay your fair share? Agent- $40 Broker- $99
  50. 50. http://www.nvar.com/
  51. 51. As always, NVAR is at your service! Classes Available Continuing Education Pre/Post Licensing Broker CE Eco Broker Green Designation GRI, Graduate Realtor® Institute ABR, Accredited Buyer Representative Click Shop Online SFR-Short Sales and Foreclosure re- button at sale Commercial Real Estate Appraisal Education nvar.com Social Media Technology Series
  52. 52. December OfferingsBuilding Your Tribe (Dec. 15 @Fairfax)Creating a Complete Marketing Plan with Internet toolsAccredited Buyer Representative Designation-ABR(Dec. 13 & 14 @ Herndon)Short Sales and Foreclosures (Dec. 15 @Herndon)GFE & HUD-1 Rules (Dec. 6 @ Fairfax)
  53. 53. Take advantage of this new member benefit forall 2011 members by learning how to make use of these form fillable documents. Please visit nvar.com/nvar-news/free-instanetforms-for-members
  54. 54. The IdentitySecure® Program for REALTORS® is thenewest offering from NARs REALTOR Benefits® Programand is among the most comprehensive fraud securitysolutions available todayFind out about all the protection benefits ofIdentitySecure®. Your first month is just $1.Visit the IdentitySecure website for more information and to sign up. www.identitysecure.com/NAR
  55. 55. NEW! Auto Loan Offer Get a fixed low rate on a new or used vehicle with a 20% down payment.NEW! Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) -Plan for your future today with Traditional, Roth and SEP Savings & Certificate accounts Realtorsfcu.org
  56. 56. Health Insurance Realtors® Core Health Insurance Plan • Guaranteed acceptance • Low cost starting at $70.69 per month • Choose any provider RealtorsCoreHealthInsurance.com/AE
  57. 57. Dental InsuranceFor more information: visit us online at RealtorsDentalInsurance.com
  58. 58. REALTOR.ORG
  59. 59. houselogic.com

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