Two suspects are arrested. Not enough evidence but both put in separate cells unable to contact each other and know what the other is, or might, do. Police visit both and offer a deal – if one testifies against the other and the other stays silent the betrayer gets off free and the silent gets 10 years. If both stay silent they get a minor charge and six months jail each. If each betrays the other each gets two years.
Scenario planning could be called complex game theory – a system of asking what ifs?
Shell describes scenario planning as providing alternative views of the future, identifying significant events, main actors and their motivations so they can help us explore what the future might look like