ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012

  • 1,011 views
Uploaded on

ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012 …

ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012
โดย คุณบัณฑูร เศรษฐศิโรตม์
ผู้อำนวยการสถาบันธรรมรัฐเพื่อการพัฒนาสังคมและสิ่งแวดล้อม

More in: Education
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
1,011
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. NSTDA Academy Open House 2011 F 2012 F F F F F ( .) F 27 2554
  • 2. 1. F F F Cancun Agreement AWG on Long-Term Cooperative Action under UNFCCC (AWG-LCA) AWG on Further Commitments for Annex-I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)2. F
  • 3. F Fƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
  • 4. ‘•– ‡‰‹‡ UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Shared Vision : 2020 & 2050 Further Developed Country commitment of Developing Country Annex-I after 2012 1. Adaptation2. Mitigation NAMAs REDD Plus etc.3. Financial Support4.Technology Transfer
  • 5. ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
  • 6. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– ƒ˜‡ –Š‡ ”‘…‡•• „—– ‘– –Š‡ Žƒ‡– Ž‹ƒ–‡ …–‹‘ ”ƒ…‡”
  • 7. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– „ƒŽƒ…‡ ƒ…ƒ‰‡ F F F F F F
  • 8. F F
  • 9. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘  • „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ‡• ‘–‡ ‘ˆ “—ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡† ‡…‘‘› ™‹†‡‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘ –ƒ”‰‡–• –‘ „‡ ‹’Ž‡‡–‡†„› ƒ”–‹‡• ‹…Ž—†‡† ‹ ‡š
  • 10. –‘ –Š‡ ‘˜‡–‹‘ ƒ• …‘—‹…ƒ–‡† „› –Š‡ ƒ†…‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡– 
  • 11.   –‘ „‡ ‹••—‡† ”‰‡• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• –‘ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡ ƒ„‹–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‡…‘‘› ™‹†‡ ‡‹••‹‘”‡†—…–‹‘ –ƒ”‰‡–• –‘ ƒ Ž‡˜‡Ž …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š–Šƒ– ”‡…‘‡†‡† „› –Š‡
  • 12.  
  • 13.  —–…‘‡ ‰”‡‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡  •ŠƒŽŽ ƒ‹ –‘ …‘’Ž‡–‡ ‹–•™‘” ’—”•—ƒ– –‘ †‡…‹•‹‘  ƒ† Šƒ˜‡ ‹–•”‡•—Ž–• ƒ†‘’–‡† „› –Š‡  ƒ• ‡ƒ”Ž› ƒ• ’‘••‹„Ž‡ ƒ†‹ –‹‡ –‘ ‡•—”‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘ ‰ƒ’ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ˆ‹”•– ƒ† •‡…‘† …‘‹–‡– ’‡”‹‘†•”‰‡• ‡š
  • 14. ƒ”–‹‡• –‘ ”ƒ‹•‡ –Š‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ƒ„‹–‹‘‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘• –‘ „‡ ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡† „› –Š‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽŽ› ‘” Œ‘‹–Ž› ™‹–Š ƒ ˜‹‡™ –‘ ”‡†—…‹‰ –Š‡‹”ƒ‰‰”‡‰ƒ–‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‡‹••‹‘• ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ•‡• ‹ƒ……‘”†ƒ…‡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ ”ƒ‰‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡† „›
  • 15.  
  • 16. IPCC-Assessment Report No.4 :Scenario Region 2020 2050450 Annex I -25% to -40% -80% to -95% below 1990 below 1990ppmCO2-eq Non-AI -15% to -30% Substantial below Business as Deviation from(2 C) Usual Baseline in all. F F 2 F (Annex-I) : F F F 25-40% F 1990 F F 2020 (Non-Annex I) : F F F 15-30% F F F F 2020 ) Source: den Elzen and Hohne (2008)
  • 17. Copenhagen Accord : Pledges from some Annex I 12
  • 18. ‘’‡Šƒ‰‡ ……‘”†
  • 19. F
  • 20. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘  • „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ‰”‡‡• –Šƒ– †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ™‹ŽŽ –ƒ‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• ‹ –Š‡…‘–‡š– ‘ˆ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– •—’’‘”–‡† ƒ†‡ƒ„Ž‡† „› –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰› ˆ‹ƒ…‹‰ ƒ† …ƒ’ƒ…‹–›„—‹Ž†‹‰ ƒ‹‡† ƒ– ƒ…Š‹‡˜‹‰ ƒ †‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‡‹••‹‘•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ „—•‹‡•• ƒ• —•—ƒŽ ‡‹••‹‘• ‹ ƒ‡• ‘–‡ ‘ˆ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ƒ…–‹‘• –‘ „‡ ‹’Ž‡‡–‡† „› ‘ ‡š
  • 21. ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ•…‘—‹…ƒ–‡† ƒ† …‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡– 
  • 22.   –‘ „‡ ‹••—‡†
  • 23. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘  • „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• Ž•‘ †‡…‹†‡• –‘ •‡– —’ ƒ ”‡‰‹•–”› –‘ ”‡…‘”† ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• •‡‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•—’’‘”– ƒ† –‘ ˆƒ…‹Ž‹–ƒ–‡ ƒ–…Š‹‰ ‘ˆ ˆ‹ƒ…‡–‡…Š‘Ž‘‰› ƒ† …ƒ’ƒ…‹–› „—‹Ž†‹‰ •—’’‘”– –‘ –Š‡•‡ƒ…–‹‘• ‡“—‡•–• –Š‡ •‡…”‡–ƒ”‹ƒ– –‘ ”‡…‘”† ƒ† ”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›—’†ƒ–‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ •—„‹––‡† „› ƒ”–‹‡• ‹ ƒ•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ •‡…–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹•–”›ƒ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• …‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡– 
  • 24.   ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ‹ ’ƒ”ƒ‰”ƒ’Š ƒ„‘˜‡
  • 25. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘   …‘—”ƒ‰‡• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”‹‡• –‘ †‡˜‡Ž‘’ Ž‘™ …ƒ”„‘ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– •–”ƒ–‡‰‹‡• ‘” ’Žƒ• ‹ –Š‡ …‘–‡š– ‘ˆ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–
  • 26.  Ž—• ‡“—‡•–• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ‹‹‰ –‘—†‡”–ƒ‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡• ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ‹ ’ƒ”ƒ‰”ƒ’Š ƒ„‘˜‡ ƒ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ •–”ƒ–‡‰› ‘” ƒ…–‹‘ ’Žƒ „ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‡‹••‹‘ Ž‡˜‡Ž ƒ† ‘”ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘” ‹ˆ ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ƒ• ƒ ‹–‡”‹‡ƒ•—”‡ •—„ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‡‹••‹‘ Ž‡˜‡Ž•ƒ† ‘” ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž•… ”‘„—•– ƒ† –”ƒ•’ƒ”‡– ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•–‘‹–‘”‹‰ •›•–‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘‹–‘”‹‰ ƒ† ”‡’‘”–‹‰‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•
  • 27. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– ƒ˜‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 28. –‡”‡•–„—– ‘– Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 29. –‡”‡•–PRESS TRUST OF INDIA
  • 30. †‹ƒ –‘†ƒ› •ƒ‹† –Šƒ– –Š‡ 
  • 31. …‘—–”‹‡• ™‡”‡ ˜‡”› Šƒ’’› ™‹–Š–Š‡ –™‘ †”ƒˆ– –‡š–•“Jairam Ramesh, Environment Minister”
  • 32. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 33. –‡”‡•– Ž‹ƒ–‡ Šƒ‰‡
  • 34.  Šƒ”‡† ‹•‹‘ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ –‡’‡”ƒ–—”‡ „‡Ž‘™ ° ƒ„‘˜‡ ’”‡‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ Ž‡˜‡Ž• ƒ† –Šƒ– ƒ”–‹‡• •Š‘—Ž† –ƒ‡ —”‰‡–ƒ…–‹‘ –‘ ‡‡– –Š‹• Ž‘‰ –‡” ‰‘ƒŽ …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š•…‹‡…‡ ƒ† ‘ –Š‡ „ƒ•‹• ‘ˆ ‡“—‹–› ”‡†—…‹‰ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ‡‹••‹‘• „› ƒ† –‘…‘•‹†‡” ‹– ƒ–  ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ’‡ƒ‹‰ ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• „ƒ•‡†‘ –Š‡ „‡•– ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ •…‹‡–‹ˆ‹… ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ†‡“—‹–ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ……‡•• –‘ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ƒ† –‘…‘•‹†‡” ƒ– 
  • 35. ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– F ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 36. –‡”‡•– Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 37. –‡”‡•–
  • 38. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 39. –‡”‡•– ‘Ž‹…› ‘•‹–‹‘ Low Carbon Development Green Growth ( Rio + 20) NAMAs Co-BenefitPolicies REDD Plus &
  • 40. F& F  •  Ž—• / /  F F/
  • 41. ‘Ž—–ƒ”› ƒ”„‘ ƒ”‡–
  • 42. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 43. –‡”‡•– ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ
  • 44. ••—‡•  ›•–‡   Ž—• ‡ˆ ‹••‹‘ ‡˜‡Ž F F F F
  • 45. Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 46. –‡”‡•– Policy / Strategy F Post -2012 Climate Change Regime ??N1 : F F F F F US F F F BASIC F? F US, EU, JP F F ? F F ? ? F 20 % BAU F 40%
  • 47. F F FTarget 2 C : 2020AN-I :-25% to -40%below 1990NA-I : -15% to -30%below BAU F F F F : -30% BAU F : 30-50 % BAU F : -15% BAU F : 15-40 % BAU F 107 MtC02eq. 2020 21% BAU
  • 48. Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 49. –‡”‡•– Policy / Strategy F Post -2012 Climate Change Regime ?? F? ? F+ ?
  • 50. & Ž‹ƒ–‡ Šƒ‰‡
  • 51. Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 52. –‡”‡•– ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ
  • 53. ••—‡• & F F „‡Ž‘™ ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‡…Šƒ‹• ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ ”ƒ•ˆ‡” ‡…Šƒ‹•