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ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012
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ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012

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ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012 …

ทิศทางผลกระทบภาวะโลกร้อน หลังปี 2012
โดย คุณบัณฑูร เศรษฐศิโรตม์
ผู้อำนวยการสถาบันธรรมรัฐเพื่อการพัฒนาสังคมและสิ่งแวดล้อม

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  • 1. NSTDA Academy Open House 2011 F 2012 F F F F F ( .) F 27 2554
  • 2. 1. F F F Cancun Agreement AWG on Long-Term Cooperative Action under UNFCCC (AWG-LCA) AWG on Further Commitments for Annex-I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP)2. F
  • 3. F Fƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
  • 4. ‘•– ‡‰‹‡ UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol Shared Vision : 2020 & 2050 Further Developed Country commitment of Developing Country Annex-I after 2012 1. Adaptation2. Mitigation NAMAs REDD Plus etc.3. Financial Support4.Technology Transfer
  • 5. ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡–
  • 6. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– ƒ˜‡ –Š‡ ”‘…‡•• „—– ‘– –Š‡ Žƒ‡– Ž‹ƒ–‡ …–‹‘ ”ƒ…‡”
  • 7. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– „ƒŽƒ…‡ ƒ…ƒ‰‡ F F F F F F
  • 8. F F
  • 9. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘  • „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ‡• ‘–‡ ‘ˆ “—ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡† ‡…‘‘› ™‹†‡‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘ –ƒ”‰‡–• –‘ „‡ ‹’Ž‡‡–‡†„› ƒ”–‹‡• ‹…Ž—†‡† ‹ ‡š
  • 10. –‘ –Š‡ ‘˜‡–‹‘ ƒ• …‘—‹…ƒ–‡† „› –Š‡ ƒ†…‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡– 
  • 11.   –‘ „‡ ‹••—‡† ”‰‡• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• –‘ ‹…”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡ ƒ„‹–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡‹” ‡…‘‘› ™‹†‡ ‡‹••‹‘”‡†—…–‹‘ –ƒ”‰‡–• –‘ ƒ Ž‡˜‡Ž …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š–Šƒ– ”‡…‘‡†‡† „› –Š‡
  • 12.  
  • 13.  —–…‘‡ ‰”‡‡• –Šƒ– –Š‡  •ŠƒŽŽ ƒ‹ –‘ …‘’Ž‡–‡ ‹–•™‘” ’—”•—ƒ– –‘ †‡…‹•‹‘  ƒ† Šƒ˜‡ ‹–•”‡•—Ž–• ƒ†‘’–‡† „› –Š‡  ƒ• ‡ƒ”Ž› ƒ• ’‘••‹„Ž‡ ƒ†‹ –‹‡ –‘ ‡•—”‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡”‡ ‹• ‘ ‰ƒ’ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ˆ‹”•– ƒ† •‡…‘† …‘‹–‡– ’‡”‹‘†•”‰‡• ‡š
  • 14. ƒ”–‹‡• –‘ ”ƒ‹•‡ –Š‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ƒ„‹–‹‘‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡‹••‹‘ ”‡†—…–‹‘• –‘ „‡ ƒ…Š‹‡˜‡† „› –Š‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽŽ› ‘” Œ‘‹–Ž› ™‹–Š ƒ ˜‹‡™ –‘ ”‡†—…‹‰ –Š‡‹”ƒ‰‰”‡‰ƒ–‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‡‹••‹‘• ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ•‡• ‹ƒ……‘”†ƒ…‡ ™‹–Š –Š‡ ”ƒ‰‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‡† „›
  • 15.  
  • 16. IPCC-Assessment Report No.4 :Scenario Region 2020 2050450 Annex I -25% to -40% -80% to -95% below 1990 below 1990ppmCO2-eq Non-AI -15% to -30% Substantial below Business as Deviation from(2 C) Usual Baseline in all. F F 2 F (Annex-I) : F F F 25-40% F 1990 F F 2020 (Non-Annex I) : F F F 15-30% F F F F 2020 ) Source: den Elzen and Hohne (2008)
  • 17. Copenhagen Accord : Pledges from some Annex I 12
  • 18. ‘’‡Šƒ‰‡ ……‘”†
  • 19. F
  • 20. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘  • „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ‰”‡‡• –Šƒ– †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ™‹ŽŽ –ƒ‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• ‹ –Š‡…‘–‡š– ‘ˆ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– •—’’‘”–‡† ƒ†‡ƒ„Ž‡† „› –‡…Š‘Ž‘‰› ˆ‹ƒ…‹‰ ƒ† …ƒ’ƒ…‹–›„—‹Ž†‹‰ ƒ‹‡† ƒ– ƒ…Š‹‡˜‹‰ ƒ †‡˜‹ƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‡‹••‹‘•”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡ –‘ „—•‹‡•• ƒ• —•—ƒŽ ‡‹••‹‘• ‹ ƒ‡• ‘–‡ ‘ˆ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ› ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ƒ…–‹‘• –‘ „‡ ‹’Ž‡‡–‡† „› ‘ ‡š
  • 21. ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ•…‘—‹…ƒ–‡† ƒ† …‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡– 
  • 22.   –‘ „‡ ‹••—‡†
  • 23. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘  • „› ‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• Ž•‘ †‡…‹†‡• –‘ •‡– —’ ƒ ”‡‰‹•–”› –‘ ”‡…‘”† ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• •‡‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•—’’‘”– ƒ† –‘ ˆƒ…‹Ž‹–ƒ–‡ ƒ–…Š‹‰ ‘ˆ ˆ‹ƒ…‡–‡…Š‘Ž‘‰› ƒ† …ƒ’ƒ…‹–› „—‹Ž†‹‰ •—’’‘”– –‘ –Š‡•‡ƒ…–‹‘• ‡“—‡•–• –Š‡ •‡…”‡–ƒ”‹ƒ– –‘ ”‡…‘”† ƒ† ”‡‰—Žƒ”Ž›—’†ƒ–‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ •—„‹––‡† „› ƒ”–‹‡• ‹ ƒ•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ •‡…–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹•–”›ƒ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘ ƒ…–‹‘• …‘–ƒ‹‡† ‹ †‘…—‡– 
  • 24.   ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ‹ ’ƒ”ƒ‰”ƒ’Š ƒ„‘˜‡
  • 25. ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‘   …‘—”ƒ‰‡• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”‹‡• –‘ †‡˜‡Ž‘’ Ž‘™ …ƒ”„‘ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– •–”ƒ–‡‰‹‡• ‘” ’Žƒ• ‹ –Š‡ …‘–‡š– ‘ˆ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–
  • 26.  Ž—• ‡“—‡•–• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ …‘—–”› ƒ”–‹‡• ƒ‹‹‰ –‘—†‡”–ƒ‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡• ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ‹ ’ƒ”ƒ‰”ƒ’Š ƒ„‘˜‡ ƒ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ •–”ƒ–‡‰› ‘” ƒ…–‹‘ ’Žƒ „ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‡‹••‹‘ Ž‡˜‡Ž ƒ† ‘”ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘” ‹ˆ ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ƒ• ƒ ‹–‡”‹‡ƒ•—”‡ •—„ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ ‡‹••‹‘ Ž‡˜‡Ž•ƒ† ‘” ˆ‘”‡•– ”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž•… ”‘„—•– ƒ† –”ƒ•’ƒ”‡– ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘”‡•–‘‹–‘”‹‰ •›•–‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘‹–‘”‹‰ ƒ† ”‡’‘”–‹‰‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•
  • 27. F F ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– ƒ˜‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 28. –‡”‡•–„—– ‘– Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 29. –‡”‡•–PRESS TRUST OF INDIA
  • 30. †‹ƒ –‘†ƒ› •ƒ‹† –Šƒ– –Š‡ 
  • 31. …‘—–”‹‡• ™‡”‡ ˜‡”› Šƒ’’› ™‹–Š–Š‡ –™‘ †”ƒˆ– –‡š–•“Jairam Ramesh, Environment Minister”
  • 32. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 33. –‡”‡•– Ž‹ƒ–‡ Šƒ‰‡
  • 34.  Šƒ”‡† ‹•‹‘ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ –‡’‡”ƒ–—”‡ „‡Ž‘™ ° ƒ„‘˜‡ ’”‡‹†—•–”‹ƒŽ Ž‡˜‡Ž• ƒ† –Šƒ– ƒ”–‹‡• •Š‘—Ž† –ƒ‡ —”‰‡–ƒ…–‹‘ –‘ ‡‡– –Š‹• Ž‘‰ –‡” ‰‘ƒŽ …‘•‹•–‡– ™‹–Š•…‹‡…‡ ƒ† ‘ –Š‡ „ƒ•‹• ‘ˆ ‡“—‹–› ”‡†—…‹‰ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ‡‹••‹‘• „› ƒ† –‘…‘•‹†‡” ‹– ƒ–  ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ’‡ƒ‹‰ ‘ˆ ‰”‡‡Š‘—•‡ ‰ƒ• ‡‹••‹‘• „ƒ•‡†‘ –Š‡ „‡•– ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ •…‹‡–‹ˆ‹… ‘™Ž‡†‰‡ ƒ†‡“—‹–ƒ„Ž‡ ƒ……‡•• –‘ •—•–ƒ‹ƒ„Ž‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ƒ† –‘…‘•‹†‡” ƒ– 
  • 35. ƒ…— ‰”‡‡‡– F ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 36. –‡”‡•– Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 37. –‡”‡•–
  • 38. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 39. –‡”‡•– ‘Ž‹…› ‘•‹–‹‘ Low Carbon Development Green Growth ( Rio + 20) NAMAs Co-BenefitPolicies REDD Plus &
  • 40. F& F  •  Ž—• / /  F F/
  • 41. ‘Ž—–ƒ”› ƒ”„‘ ƒ”‡–
  • 42. ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ
  • 43. –‡”‡•– ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ
  • 44. ••—‡•  ›•–‡   Ž—• ‡ˆ ‹••‹‘ ‡˜‡Ž F F F F
  • 45. Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 46. –‡”‡•– Policy / Strategy F Post -2012 Climate Change Regime ??N1 : F F F F F US F F F BASIC F? F US, EU, JP F F ? F F ? ? F 20 % BAU F 40%
  • 47. F F FTarget 2 C : 2020AN-I :-25% to -40%below 1990NA-I : -15% to -30%below BAU F F F F : -30% BAU F : 30-50 % BAU F : -15% BAU F : 15-40 % BAU F 107 MtC02eq. 2020 21% BAU
  • 48. Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 49. –‡”‡•– Policy / Strategy F Post -2012 Climate Change Regime ?? F? ? F+ ?
  • 50. & Ž‹ƒ–‡ Šƒ‰‡
  • 51. Ž‘„ƒŽ
  • 52. –‡”‡•– ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ
  • 53. ••—‡• & F F „‡Ž‘™ ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ ‡…Šƒ‹• ‡…Š‹…ƒŽ ”ƒ•ˆ‡” ‡…Šƒ‹•