Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

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Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

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Green energy, the key to the future of our planet

  1. 1. © Fraunhofer ISE Green Energy - the Key to the Future of our planet Eicke R. Weber Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany 1
  2. 2. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE Largest European solar energy research institute >930 members of staff (incl. students) Areas of business: • Photovoltaics • Solar Thermal Technologies • Renewable Power Generation • Energy-Efficient Buildings and Technical Building Components • Applied Optics and Functional Surfaces • Hydrogen Technology 10% basic financing 90% contract research 40% industry, 60% public € 56 M total budget (‘09) > 10% p.a. growth rate 2
  3. 3. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Challenges of Today‘s Situation: COP-15 is widely considered a failure, as it did not result in binding CO2 - reduction targets. Still, COP-15 lead to global acceptance of the 2oC target as maximum permissible warming; more will definitely result in climate-disaster. This means, the world cannot emit more than 750 Gt of CO2 during this century; it currently emits about 35 Gt of CO2 per year (9.5 Gt C/a) ! Instead of waiting for politics to succeed, we should work for the fastest possible transition into a green energy future! Holocene 3
  4. 4. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Price of fossil energy, example oil price 2001 2004 2007 2010 0 50 100 150 Brent Crude Oil USD/KG 4
  5. 5. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 The transformation into a green energy future requires Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e-mobility) and production Rapid development of all renewable energies, especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future Expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance transport and smart users 5
  6. 6. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 CO2 - free sources of energy Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem 6
  7. 7. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Price of uranium 2001 2004 2007 2010 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Uranium USD/KG 7
  8. 8. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Nuclear energy – new installed power Quelle: IAEA 8
  9. 9. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 New installed power– nuclear and renewable power Quellen: IAEA, Navigant Consulting, DEWI 9
  10. 10. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 CO2 - free sources of energy Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem Clean coal technologies - requires carbon sequestration, unproven technology, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental release Wind - fluctuating production, limited number of suitable sites Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, good sites limited, production should be maximized Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, production energy intensive Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Island) Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy source PV: continuous price reduction through savings of scale 10
  11. 11. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Exemplary Path, global primary energy consumption Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de Other Renewables Oil Coal Gas Nuclear Energy Hydropower Biomass (traditional) Biomass (modern) Solar Electricity (PV und solarthermal) Solarthermal (Heat only) Geothermal Wind Year 2000 2020 2040 200 600 1000 1400 2100 EJ/a 0 10 30 40 50 20 TW 11
  12. 12. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Magnitude of Solar Energy Each hour the sun delivers to earth the amount of energy used by humans in a whole year Sun radiation onto earth corresponds to 120,000 TW Total human energy need in 2020: 20TW! Source: G.W. Crabtree and N.S. Lewis, Physics Today, March 2007 12
  13. 13. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Annual installation of PV modules (worldwide) Sources: 2000-2003 Strategies Unlimited, 2006 EPIA “solar generation”, 2007 LBBW Report, 2010 SolarBuzz Annual Module Shipment (Crystalline Silicon) MWp/a 2000 20122005 2010 15%Growth 25%Growth 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 1,600 2,000 4,000 1,200 800 400 3,600 3,200 2,800 2,400 4,400 4,800 40 % CAGR Projection (2003)Actual Shipments 2009: 6,43 GWp 2003: 600 MWp 13
  14. 14. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Technologies in the global PV-market 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 2007 Mono-Si Thin-Film Multi-Si Ribbon-Si First 20% Mono-Si production cell (100cm²) Renewable Energy law, GER Residential roof program, JPN First 20% Mono-Si lab cell (4cm²) 1990: 1/3 thin-film, c-Si, ms-Si 2007: > 90% c-Si & mc-Si! 3 GWp Slide courtesy of G. Willeke 14
  15. 15. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 High-Efficiency ISE solar cell structure for mc silicon Thermal oxide: Surface passivation and high internal reflectivity Plasma-textured surface: Low reflection and good „light trapping“ Laser-fired contacts (LFC): Low contact resistance and high voltage Wafer thickness: 99 µm Efficiency: 20.3% (1 cm2) world record for mc-Si! 15
  16. 16. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 From mg-Si to ultrapure poly-Si: the Siemens Process ‘fluidised bed’ reactor fractional distillation mg-Si powder hot Si dust exhaust (SiHCl3, SiCL4, H2, Metall Chloride) heating elements HCl quartz tube ca. 30.000 t/a ca. $100/kg Alternative Technology for PV: upgraded metallurgical Si, umg-Si (‚dirty silicon‘) 16
  17. 17. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Price learn-curve of crystalline Si PV-modules 10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 102 103 d [µm] = 400 300 200 100 50 ηcell [%] = 10 15 18 20 slope: 22% decrease for each doubling of installed capacity 20202010 (25%) [€/Wp] 100 10 1 1980 1990 2000 2004 Installed Peak Power (cumulated) [GWp] (30%) 2007 Slide courtesy of G. Willeke 17
  18. 18. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 High-efficiency ISE triple-junction solar cells Ga0.65In0.35P tunnel diode Ga0.83In0.17As tunnel diode Ge substrate 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 ηηηη = 41.1 % Current[A] Voltage [mV] 2517-3-01-17 Ga0.35 In0.65 P/Ga0.83 In0.17 As/Ge C = 454 x, T = 25 °C (C = 1: AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²) ISC = 380.5 mA VOC = 2867 mV FF = 87.2 % A = 0.0509 cm² 18
  19. 19. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Realization : FLATCON® System by Concentrix III-V based tandem cells Cgeo = 500x Point focus Fresnel lenses Housing made of glass 19
  20. 20. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 An important advantage of large-area CPV: land use 20
  21. 21. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Thin-film CIS Solar cell structure 21
  22. 22. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Segmentation of the Efficiencies in the Solar Cell Market 1 - 5 %: Organic, Dye, Nanostructure Cells 6 - 11%: Thin film cells (a-Si, microcryst.-Si, CIS, CIGS, CdTe) 14 - 18%: mc-Si, umg-Si, simple c-Si cells 20 - 24%: High efficiency, mainly c-Si cells 36 - 41.1%: High-efficiency III/V tandem cells for concentrators with 25 - 30% module efficiency 22
  23. 23. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies C ~ 500-1000 comm. demo ηa ~ 10%-15% LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh C ~ 300-4000 demo ηa ~ 14%-18% LEC2020 ~ ? C ~ 60-120 demo ηa ~10%-12% LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh C ~ 70-90 commercial ηa ~ 12%-14% LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh 23
  24. 24. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 ν Predictions of different studies ν Expected for 2020: ca. 20 GWp installed Expected CSP Market Development 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 cumulatedcapacity[GWe] Morse 2000 Pilkington Sunlab 2001 S&L 2003 ESTIA2005 Sarrazin 2007 BMU 2006 GMI IEASolarpaces © Fraunhofer ISE 24
  25. 25. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Existing and Future Solar Thermal Power Plants about 500 MW operating, 2500 MW under construction, 9000 MW in Planning Quelle: Kost (Fraunhofer ISE) 25
  26. 26. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Desertec - vision of an electricity super grid 26
  27. 27. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Wind onshore: $ 1 -2 / Wp, on the average 2000-2500h/a Nuclear: $ 5-7/W, 6000-7000 operation hours/a, + costs of nuclear fuel, operation, final storage CSP: $ 2 - 4 / Wp without storage, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine $ 3 - 5 / Wp with storage, + costs of maintainance Costs to build new power plants Wind offshore: $ 3 - 4 Wp, up to 3500h/a, high maintainance costs Photovoltaic: $ 2,50 - 3 / Wp, 800-1000h/a in Germany, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine regions Source: E.R. Weber 27
  28. 28. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Electricity Costs of Renewable Energies Electricity Costs depend on number of operating hours On-shore wind reaches parity with fossil energies PV at good locations competitive with CSP PV klein 1000 PV groß 2000 CSP mit Speicher 2000 CSP ohne Speicher 2000 Wind onshore 2000 Wind offshore 3200 Strommix fossil Leitszenario 2009 Medium Number: kWhr/kWp for PV, CSP, and wind Slide courtesy of C. Kost (Fraunhofer ISE) 28
  29. 29. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 100% Renewable Electricity: the Energy Storage Problem Energy harvested from the sun and wind is fluctuating in nature; this can be partially balanced by hydro, biomass and geothermal energies An efficient energy storage system is highly desirable; first in line is hydro, as water pumped to elevated altitude or variable-flow dams Current battery technologies are too expensive; an exception could be redox- flow batteries that essentially store electric charge Solar-generated Hydrogen combined with fuel cells might get cost-competitive with further development Ultimately, a global electricity grid based on HVDC lines might eliminate this problem: The sun shines at any time of the day somewhere on the globe Heat storage in CSP Solar Thermal Power plants is readily available 29
  30. 30. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Failure of COP-15 (Kopenhagen 2009): Negative Goal Climate Scientists: Earth can afford only 750 Gt of additional CO2 - emissions, to limit global warming to 2oC Politics: Negotiate treaties to limit national CO2 - emissions, see COP-15 Voters (esp. in USA): Object limits on convenience of living through CO2 emission limitations Emerging Countries (e.g., China): Limitations and reductions of CO2 - emissions not acceptable, per-capita emissions are much smaller than in industrialized countries 30
  31. 31. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Better: Positive Goals: RE und EE Regenerative Energy Goal: % RE in Electricity, Energy consumption - 20% (Germany: 30-40%) RE in total energy by 2020 - 100% RE in electricity by 2030 seem to be possible (e.g., M. Jacobson) Governments: these goals can be directly influenced by politics Voters: positive Goals present a challenge (c.f., landing on the moon) Economies: Jobs in high- und low-Technologies Support of RE, EE: economic stimulus programs Advantages of RE and EE Goals: Energy - Efficiency Goal: Energy intensity of GNP in kWh/$ GNP 31
  32. 32. © Fraunhofer ISE NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010 Conclusion: The Green Energy Future Our climate goals can only be achieved with more efficient energy use and rapid introduction of renewable energies worldwide; All sources of renewable energy should be developed. Among those, harvesting solar electricity will be a leading technology, as solar energy is virtually unlimited available. Direct photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is based on semiconductor technology; the price will follow a steep learning curve, so that solar energy will get competitive with electricity from fossil and nuclear sources. Electricity from solar thermal energy conversion (CSP) is cost competitive today, and has advantages in heat storage; however, the learning curve seems to have a smaller slope, so that PV might create lowest-cost solar electricity. Ultimately, the green energy market will soon be a 100s of bn-$ market, providing millions of jobs and energy without fuel costs worldwide. 32
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