2010 02-27 saratoga-plan-r0

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Population growth trends analyzed for the Capital District of New York. Various growth scenarios are examed including impacts on land use and taxation.

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2010 02-27 saratoga-plan-r0

  1. 1. Start End Saratoga P.L.A.N. Rocco A. Ferraro, AICP, Executive Director Capital District Regional Planning Commission
  2. 2. Commission End CDRPC Commissioners Albany County Willard A. Bruce, Secretary John Graziano, Jr. Lucille M. McKnight Michael B. Whalen, Jr. {Vacant} Rensselaer County Judy Breselor Stan Brownell Leon Fiacco James D. Shaughnessy, Treasurer Mike Stammel Saratoga County Fred Acunto Philip Barrett, Chair Jason Kemper John Murray Paul Sausville Schenectady County Robert J. Godlewski Gary Hughes Barbara Mauro, Vice Chair Michael Petta David Vincent
  3. 3. Pop50C End
  4. 4. Pop60C End
  5. 5. Pop70C End
  6. 6. Pop80C End
  7. 7. Pop90C End
  8. 8. Pop00C End
  9. 9. Pop50 End
  10. 10. Pop60 End
  11. 11. Pop70 End
  12. 12. Pop80 End
  13. 13. Pop90 End
  14. 14. Pop00 End
  15. 15. BP2 End
  16. 16. PopProj End
  17. 17. Age Cohort Proj End Saratoga County Age Cohort Projections
  18. 18. HH by Type End Saratoga County Households by Type
  19. 19. Fam HH by Type End Saratoga County Family Households by Type
  20. 20. Persons/HH End Saratoga County Avg. Persons/Household
  21. 21. HH Proj End Saratoga County Household Projections
  22. 22. HH Proj Chart End
  23. 23. Map-S1 End Development Scenario 1 2000-2030 Status Quo Trend 72,707 net persons 1 dot = 50 people <ul><li>CDRPC Projections </li></ul><ul><li>Current Policies </li></ul>
  24. 24. Map-S2 End Development Scenario 2 2000-2030 Concentrated Growth 72,707 net persons 1 dot = 50 people <ul><li>CDRPC Projections </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Density </li></ul><ul><li>Urban Policy Initiatives </li></ul>
  25. 25. Map-S3 End Development Scenario 3 2000-2030 Trend Hyper-Growth 229,341 net persons 1 dot = 50 people <ul><li>Average U.S. Growth Rate (1%/year) </li></ul><ul><li>Current Policies </li></ul>
  26. 26. Map-S4 End Development Scenario 4 2000-2030 Concentrated Hyper-Growth 229,340 net persons 1 dot = 50 people <ul><li>Average U.S. Growth Rate (1%/year) </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Density </li></ul><ul><li>Urban Policy Initiatives </li></ul>
  27. 27. CDR Fiscal Impact End <ul><li>Critical Points </li></ul><ul><li>The faster the Region grows, the more critical it is to manage growth to avoid escalating infrastructure costs. </li></ul><ul><li>More dispersed development patterns means higher infrastructure costs, in particular for education. </li></ul><ul><li>Under the trend scenarios the costs to maintain existing infrastructure will be borne by a smaller and less wealthy population. </li></ul><ul><li>Private costs for Water and Wastewater would be less under the concentrated versus the trend growth scenarios. </li></ul><ul><li>Mutual aid assistance agreements for fire and emergency services may not ensure adequate personnel and property protection in fast growing suburban and rural areas dependent on volunteer staffing, accelerating the need to professionalize some currently volunteer districts. </li></ul>Capital Region Fiscal Impacts of Growth to 2030 $1,698.3 M $1,620.7 M $4,796.0 M $3,789.7 M Fire/EMS Education Wastewater Water Status Quo Trend Concentrated Hyper-Growth Trend Hyper-Growth Concentrated Growth $340.9 M $1,087.6 M $151.0 M $118.8 M $346.9 M $1,015.1 M $155.4 M $103.3 M $868.6 M $3,329.6 M $356.6 M $241.1 M $881.7 M $2,203.8 M $463.0 M $241.2 M
  28. 28. Sar Fiscal Impact End Saratoga County Fiscal Impacts of Growth to 2030
  29. 29. End End Capital District Regional Planning Commission One Park Place, Suite 102, Albany, New York 12205 518-453-0850 Fax 453-0856 cdrpc@cdrpc.org http://cdrpc.org
  30. 30. CDR Migration End Capital District Migration of Taxpayers & Dependents
  31. 31. Sar Migration End Saratoga County Migration of Taxpayers & Dependents

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