Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12
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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12

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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12 Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Sep-12 Document Transcript

  • ISSN 1810-6358វិទ សានបណ្ដុះបណា្ដល និង ្រសាវ្រជាវេដើម ីអភិវឌ ន៍កម្ពុជា CDRI—Cambodia’s leading independent development policy research institute របាយការណ៍ថ្មីៗស្តីពីេសដ្ឋកិចកម្ពុជា ្ច Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy កញ ២០១២ / ញ September 2012 រតន វឌ ន / Roth Vathana ័ ប៉ុន ដូរ ី ¼ Pon Dorina បកែ្របេ យ៖ យូ សិទីរទធ និង េខង េសង ធ ិ ភនេពញ កមពុជ ំ Phnom Penh, Cambodia TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; postal address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia;tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 ; fax: (855-23) 880-734 ; email: pubs@cdri.org.kh; website: http://www.cdri.org.kh
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ករបក្រ យ ងសំខន់ៗ Highlightsរបយករណេនះ បក្រ ៍ យពសូចនករេសដ្ឋកិចចមយចំនួនរបស់កមពុជ នង ី ួ ិ This report highlights a number of economic indicators of Cambodia and its partners. It compares recent figuresប ្ត ្របេទសជៃដគូពណជជកមម េ ិ យេធ្វករេ្រប បេធៀបតួេលខកនុងែខថមៗ ើ ី with those of earlier periods.េនះ ជមួយនងែខមុនៗ។ ឹ Fixed asset investments in industry approved by theកនុង្រតមសទី២ ី ឆ២០១២ នំ វនិេយគគតជ្រទពយសកមមជប់ ិ ិ ប់ខង Council for the Development of Cambodia in the second quarter of 2012 decreased by 16.7 percent fromឧស ហកមមអនុមតេ ័ យ CDC ធក់ចុះ ១៦,៧% មក្រតម ១៧៣,៧ ្ល ឹ ន a quarter earlier or 32.4 percent year on year, toដុ ្ល រ េធៀបនង្រតមសមុន ឬធក់ចុះ ៣២,៤% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ឹ ី ្ល ឹ នំ ុ USD173.7 m.កនុងែខកកក ចំននេភញ វបរេទសមកដល់សរុបេកន ១៣% េធៀបនងែខមុន ួ ើ ឹ In July, total foreign visitor arrivals increased by 13 percent from the preceding month (19.0 percent year onឬេកន ១៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ េភញ វមកលំ ែហេកន ១៣,០% (១៥,០% ើ ឹ នំ ុ ើ year). Holiday arrivals rose by 13 percent (15 percentេធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មកេធ្វជំនួញេកន ១២,០% (១៧,០% េធៀបនងមួយឆ ំ ឹ នំ ុ ើ ើ ឹ ន year on year), business arrivals by 12 percent (17មុន) នងមកកនុងបំណងេផ ងៗេកន ៣០% (៣៨១% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន)។ ិ ើ ឹ នំ ុ percent year on year) and “other” arrivals by 30 percent (381 percent year on year).េនែខកកក តៃម្លអនុមតគេ្រមង ិ ងសង់ភម្រគឹះនងផទះ េកន ៧៩៦,៥% ូ ិ ិ ើ In July, the value of construction approvals for villas(១៥,៥% េធៀបមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ១២,៨ នំ នដុ ្ល រ គេ្រមងេផ ងៗេកន ើ and houses rose by 796.5 percent (15.5 percent year on៨០៧,២% (១៧៣,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៣៤,១ ឹ នំ នដុ ្ល រ។ year) to USD12.8 m and of “others” by 807.2 percent (173.2 percent year on year) to USD34.1 m. The valueតៃម្លអនុមតគេ្រមង ិ ងសង់ផះែល្វង ទ េកន ើ ៣០៣% េធៀបនងែខមុន ឹ of flat construction approvals rose 303 percent from aប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ៤៨,១% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន មក្រតម ២៩,៤ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ ុ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ។ month earlier, but year on year decrease by 48.1 percent to USD29.4 m.េនែខមថុន សនទស ន៍ៃថ្លទនញេ្របើ្របស់ (្រគប់មខទំនញ) េកន ០,១% ិ ំ ិ ុ ិ ើេធៀបនងែខមុន (១,៨% េធៀបនងែខដូចគឆមុន)។ ៃថ្លេសប ង ន នំ រ នង In June, the consumer price index (all items) went up ឹ ឹ ិ 0.1 percent from the preceding month (1.8 percent fromេភសជជៈគនជត្រ ម ិ េកន ០,៩% (៣,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) សេម្ល ក ើ ឹ នំ the same period last year). Prices of food and non-បំពក់នងែសបកេជងេកន ០,៥% (៣,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) នង ៃថ្ល ិ ើ ើ ឹ នំ ុ ិ alcoholic beverages rose by 0.9 percent (3.2 percent year on year), clothing and footwear by 0.5 percent (3.8សមរៈបំពក់នងៃថ្លដំេណរករកនុងផទះេកន ភ ិ ើ ើ ០,៣% (៣,៦% េធៀបនង ឹ percent year on year) and household furnishings andមួយឆមន)។ កនុងែខដែដល ៃថ្ល នំ ុ ន ក់េន នងៃថ្លទកេភ្លងធក់ចុះ ០,៨% ិ ឹ ើ ្ល operations by 0.3 percent (3.6 percent year on year). Inប៉ែន្តេកន ០,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន។ ុ នំ the same month, housing and utilities prices dropped by ើ ឹ 0.8 percent, but increased 0.6 percent year on year.េនែខសី ៃថ្លេ្របង ំង េកន ៧,៦% េធៀបនងែខមុន (២,៩% េធៀប ើ ឹ In August, the price of gasoline increased by 7.6នងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៥៣៤១េរៀល/លី្រត នងេ្របងមស៊ូត េកន ៦,៦% ឹ នំ ិ ៉ ើ percent from a month earlier (2.9 percent year on year)(៣,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៥០៥៧េរៀល/លី្រត។ ឹ នំ ុ to KHR5341/litre and of diesel by 6.6 percent (3.9 percent year on year) to KHR5057/litre.េនែខមថុន ិ អ្រ ករ្របក់េលើបេញញ ើ ជ្របក់េរៀលរយៈេពល១២ែខ គឺ In June, the interest rate on 12-month riel deposits was៥,៨% (ធក់ចុះ ០,៣ ឯក ្ល ភគរយេធៀបនងែខមុន) េហយស្រមប់បេញញ ើ ជ ឹ ើ 5.8 percent (a 0.3 percentage point drop from a month្របក់ដុ ្ល រ គឺ ៤,៤% (ធក់ចុះ ០,០៤ ឯក ្ល ភគរយ)។ earlier) and that of dollar deposits was 4.4 percent (a 0.04 percentage point decrease).េនែខសី ្របក់េរៀលេនទផ រេឡងៃថ្ល ី ើ ០,០២% េធៀបនងែខមុន ឹ In August, the market exchange rate of the riel(០,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ ទល់នង្របក់ដុ ឹ ្ល រ ប៉ុែន្តេនេថរទល់នង ឹ appreciated 0.02 percent (0.6 percent year on year)្របក់បតៃថ នង្របក់ដុងេវៀត ិ ម។ against the dollar. The riel exchange rate remained unchanged against the Thai baht and the Vietnameseេនែខមថុន ិ ករនំេចញសេម្ល កបំពក់ (្រគប់្របេភទ) េកន ើ ២៨,៤% dong.េធៀបនងែខមុន (១៨,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៤១១,២ ឹ ឹ នំ ុ នដុ ្ល រ Exports of clothing (all kinds) in June rose by 28.4េហយករនំេចញែសបកេជង េកន ៦,៩% (២៣,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ើ ើ ើ ឹ នំ ុ percent from the previous month (18.6 percent year onដល់ ២៧,៩ នដុ ្ល រ។ ករនំេចញផលិតផល យនភ័ណេផ ងេទៀតេកន ្ឌ ើ year) to USD411.2 m and shoes by 6.9 percent (23.9 percent year on year) to USD27.9 m. Exports of other៣,៣% ដល់ ៥,៣ នដុ ្ល រ ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ៣,៥% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ ុ textile products increased by 3.3 percent, but decreasedកនុងែខដែដល ករនំចូលែដកែថបេកន ២,៣% (២២៦,០% េធៀបនង ើ ឹ by 3.5 percent year on year, to USD5.3 m. In the sameមួយឆមន) ដល់ ១២,៥ នំ ុ នដុ ្ល រ េហើយករនំចូលសមរៈសំ ណង់ េកន ភ month, imports of steel went up 2.3 percent (226.0 ើ percent year on year) to USD12.5 m and construction២២,១% (២០,៧% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) ដល់ ៥,៥ ឹ នំ នដុ ្ល រ រឯ ី equipment by 22.1 percent (20.7 percent year on year)ករនំចូលសុី មងត៍ ធក់ចុះ ៉ ់ ្ល ២៣,៤% ប៉ុែន្តេកន ើ ១៧,៤% េធៀបនង ឹ to USD5.5 m. Imports of cement went down 23.4 percent, but increased 17.4 percent year on year.មួយឆមន។ ករនំចូលេ្របង នំ ុ ំងេកើន ៧,៨% េធៀបនងែខមុន (១០,៩% ឹ Imports of gasoline rose by 7.8 percent from a monthេធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ េហយករនំចូលេ្របងមសូ តេខ ើ ៉ ម េកន ើ ៣,៦% earlier (10.9 percent year on year) and fuel oil by 3.6(៦,៦% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) រឯករនំចូលេ្របងមសូ តធក់ចុះ ១៣,៦% នំ ុ ៉ ្ល percent (6.6 percent year on year). Imports of diesel oil ឹ ី dropped by 13.6 percent, but rose by 0.8 percent yearមក្រតម ៣៩,៥ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ ប៉ែន្តេកន ០,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន ។ ុ ើ ឹ នំ ុ Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012កនុងែខមថុន ចំណលចរន្តសរុបរបស់រ ្ឋ ភបល ធក់ចុះ ៧,៥% មក្រតម ិ ូ ិ ្ល ឹ on year, to USD39.5 m.៥៧២,៨ពន់ នេរៀល េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តេកន ២៧,៩% េធៀបនងឆ ំ ឹ ុ ើ ឹ ន In June, total government current revenue went downមុន។ ចំណលបនពពនធនចូលនងនំេចញេកន ១០,៦% (១៩,២% េធៀប ូ ំ 7.5 percent from the preceding month but year on year ី ិ ើ increased by 27.9 percent, to KHR572.8 bn. Revenueនងឆមន)។ ចំណលពនធកុ នង្រសុក ធក់ចុះ ៧,៥% (េកន ៣៤,៨ េធៀបនង ឹ នំ ុ ូ ្ល ើ ឹ from import and export taxes rose by 10.6 percent (19.2ឆមុន) េហយ ចំណលមនែមនពនធ ធក់ចុះ ៣០,១% (េកន ៦,២% េធៀប នំ ើ ូ ិ ្ល ើ percent year on year). Revenue from domestic taxes dropped by 7.5 percent (34.8 percent increase year onនងឆមន)។ កនុងែខដែដល ចំ ឹ នំ ុ យចរន្តសរុបរបស់រ ្ឋ ភបល េកន ៧,២% ិ ើ year) and from non-taxes by 30.1 percent (6.2 percentដល់ ៥៧៥,២ពន់ នេរៀល ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ុ ្ល ៦,៣% េធៀបនងឆមុន។ ឹ នំ rise year on year). In the same period, total currentចំ យេលើេបៀវត រ ៍ ធក់ចុះ ៣២,៥% (៩,៨% េធៀបនងឆមុន) មក្រតម ្ល expenditure increased by 7.2 percent but year on year ឹ នំ ឹ dropped by 6.3 percent to KHR575.2 bn. Expenditure២០៤,៥ពន់ ី ភ ិ ំ ួ នេរៀល រឯឧបតថមធន នងជនយសងគមកចេកន ៩២,៧% ិ ច ើ on wages went down 32.5 percent (9.8 percent year onដល់ ១៨៣,៦ពន់ នេរៀល ប៉ែន្តធក់ចុះ ២៦,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន ។ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ ុ year) to KHR204.5 bn, while that on subsidies and social assistance rose by 92.7 percent, but year on yearេនែខមថុន ិ អងករៃថ េឡងៃថ្ល ើ ១៤,២% េធៀបនងែខមុន ឹ (៣២,០% decreased by 26.8 percent to KHR183.6 bn.េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៧៣៧,៩ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ េកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ្ល ៦,១% ្ល The price of Thai rice in June increased by 14.2 percent(២៩,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៣១០៤,៩ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ ្ល រ/េ ន រឯេម ី from a month earlier (32.0 percent year on year) to ំដឡូងេឈើ េឡងៃថ្ល ១២,២% ដល់ ៣៣៧,៥ដុ ្ល រ/េ ន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ុ ្ល USD737.9/tonne. The price of rubber dropped by 6.1 ើ percent (29.2 percent year on year) to១៣,០% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ ករនំេចញអងករេនៃថ ធក់ចុះ ៣៩,៦% ឹ នំ ុ ្ល USD3104.9/tonne. The price of tapioca went up 12.2េធៀបនងែខមុន (៤៩,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន) មក្រតម ៣០៦,២ ឹ ឹ នំ ឹ ន percent but year on year dropped by 13.0 percent to USD337.5/tonne. Exports of Thai rice went down 39.6ដុ ្ល រ េហយករនំេចញេកស៊ូធមមជតិ នងជ័រធមមជតិ ធក់ចុះ ៩,៤% ើ ិ ្ល percent from the preceding month (49.3 percent year on(៣១,៥% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ មក្រតម ឹ ៦៥៣,២ នដុ ្ល រ។ year) to USD306.2 m and natural rubber and similar ំករនំេចញេម ដឡូងេឈើ ធក់ចុះ ៣៧,៤% មក្រតម ១២១,៣ ្ល ឹ នដុ ្ល រ natural gums by 9.4 percent (31.5 percent drop year on year) to USD653.2 m. Exports of tapioca decreased byប៉ែន្តេកន ២៧,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន ។ ុ ើ ឹ នំ 37.4 percent, but year on year rose by 27.8 percent toេនែខមថុន អងករេនេវៀត ម ធក់ៃថ្ល ២,៧% េធៀបនងែខមុន (៩,១% ្ល USD121.3 m. ិ ឹេធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៤៣៦,៧ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ ្ល រ/េ ន េហយេកស៊ូធក់ៃថ្ល ើ ្ល In June, rice prices in Vietnam decreased by 2.7 percent from the preceding month (9.1 percent year on year) to៩,៥% (៣៤,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ២៨៣៣,៣ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ ្ល រ/េ ន USD436.7/tonne and rubber by 9.5 percent (34.9រឯ្រគប់ ី ្វ យចនទី េឡងៃថ្ល ៣,៤% ដល់ ៧០០០ដុ ើ ្ល រ/េ ន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ុ ្ល percent year on year) to USD2833.3/tonne. The price of១៧,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន។ នំ ុ កនុងែខដែដល ករនំេចញអងករ េកន cashew nuts rose by 3.4 percent but year on year ឹ ើ dropped by 17.3 percent to USD7000/tonne. In the១៥,៧% (១៩,៣% េធៀបនងមួយែខមុន) ដល់ ៣៨៣ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ េហយ ើ same period, exports of rice went up 15.7 percent (19.3្រគប់ ្វ យច័នទី េកន ើ ៣,៤% (២១,២% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ឹ នំ ុ ដល់ percent year on year) to USD383 m and cashew nuts by 3.4 percent (21.2 percent year on year) to USD154 m.១៥៤ នដុ ្ល រ រឯករនំេចញេកស៊ូ ី ធក់ចុះ ២៧,៦% (៣០,៣% ្ល Exports of rubber dropped by 27.6 percent (30.3 percentេធៀបនងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ១៧០ ឹ នំ ុ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ។ year on year) to USD170 m.េនែខកកក ករនំេចញរបស់សហរដ្ឋ េមរក ធក់ចុះ ១,៤% មក្រតម ិ ្ល ឹ In July, US exports declined by 1.4 percent from a១៣០,៨ពន់ នដុ ្ល រ េធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តេកន ៣,១% េធៀបនងមួយ ុ month earlier, but year on year increased by 3.1 percent ឹ ើ ឹ to USD130.8 bn. Exports of the euro zone dropped 5.6ឆមុន។ ករនំេចញេនតំបន់អរូ ៉ ធក់ចុះ ៥,៦% (៥,១% េធៀបនងមួយ នំ ឺ ្ល ឹ percent (5.1 percent year on year) to USD191 bn and ofឆមុន) មក្រតម ១៩១ពន់ នំ ឹ នដុ ្ល រ េហយករនំេចញរបស់ជប៉នធក់ចុះ ើ ុ ្ល Japan by 6.1 percent (7.1 percent year on year) to USD66.8 bn.៦,១% (៧,១ េធៀបនឹងមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ៦៦,៨ពន់ នំ ុ ឹ នេរៀល។ In August, the price of USA 2/4 rice rose 2.3 percentេនែខសី អងករ USA 2/4 េឡងៃថ្ល ២,៣% ដល់ ៥៨៥ដុ ើ ្ល រ/េ ន from the preceding month, but year on year dropped byេធៀបនងែខមុន ប៉ែន្តធក់ៃថ្ល ៥,៥% េធៀបនងឆមុន។ អងករ Thai 100% B ឹ ុ ្ល ឹ នំ 5.5 percent, to USD585/tonne. Thai 100% B rice increased by 2.9 percent (3.3 percent year on year) toេឡងៃថ្ល ២,៩% (៣,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៦០១ដុ ើ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ USD601/tonne. In the same month, the price ofកនុងែខដែដល សែណកេសៀង (US No.1) េឡងៃថ្ល ១,១% (២៨,១% ្ត ើ soybeans (US No. 1) rose 1.1 percent (28.1 percent yearេធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៦៥៦,៦ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន នង េពត (US No.2) ិ on year) to USD656.6/tonne and maize (US No. 2) by 1.2 percent (7.9 percent year on year) toេឡងៃថ្ល ១,២% (៧,៩% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ៣៣១,២ដុ ើ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ USD331.2/tonne. The price of rubber (SMR 5) droppedេកស៊ូ (SMR 5) ធក់ៃថ្ល ៩,៧% េធៀបនងែខមុន (៤៣,១% េធៀបនង ្ល ឹ ឹ by 9.7 percent from a month earlier (43.1 percent yearមួយឆមន) មក្រតម ២៦៦០,៨ដុ នំ ុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ កនុងែខសី េ្របង ំង on year) to USD2660.8/tonne. In August, the price of ឹ gasoline (US Gulf Coast) went up 12.2 percent (6.3(US Gulf Coast) េឡងៃថ្ល ១២,២% (៦,៣% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ើ ឹ នំ ុ percent year on year) to USD0.78/litre and of diesel០,៧៨ដុ ្ល រ/លី្រត េហយេ្របងមស៊ូត (Low sulphur No2) េឡងៃថ្ល ើ ៉ ើ (low sulphur No. 2) by 9.1 percent (5.8 percent year on year) to USD0.83/litre.៩,១% (៥,៨% េធៀបនងមួយឆមន) ដល់ ០,៨៣ដុ ឹ នំ ុ ្ល រ/លី ្រត។ Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3
  • 43501D A A Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 សកម្មភាពេសដ្ឋកចសខាន់ៗ និង ៃថ្លទនិញេនៅកម្ពុជា ិ ្ច ំ ំ Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia Fixed Asset Investment Approvals by CDC Foreign Visitor Arrivals Industry July 2011–July 2012 2009 Q2–2012 Q2 2500 400 350 Other Business Holiday 2000 000 persons 300 12 14 1500 250 3 200 USD m 13 1000 150 258 100 194 500 50 0 0 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 Nov 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jul 12 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Including expansion projects. Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia Source: Ministry of Tourism Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals Consumer Price Index July 2011–July 2012 (December 2006=100) 180 Other Dec 2010–June 2012 160 Flats Villas & houses 140 120 100 USD m 80 12.5 34.1 60 40 56.7 29.4 20 11.1 12.8 0 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Nov 11 Jul 12 Source: Municipality of Phnom Penh Source: National institute of statistics Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Deposits (%) June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–June 2012 7 5800 5600 6 5057 5400 5 Percentage Per Annum 5200 4 Riels/ℓ 5341 5000 3 4800 2 4600 Diesel 1 Riel deposit rate 4400 Gasoline Dollar deposit rate 0 4200 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 សានភាពអ្រតាប្តូរ្របាក់ និង ជំនួយអភិវឌ ន៍ពីេ្រកៅ្របេទស Exchange Rates, Money and Credit Riels per US Dollar Riels per THB & VND June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–August 2012 4200 138 26 Market rate 134 25 4150 Official rate 128.7 4094 128.7 4069 24 4068 4100 130 23 KHR per VND 100 KHR per Baht 4050 126 4077 Thai baht (left) 22 4052 4052 4000 122 Vietnamese dong (right) 21 19.5 19.5 3950 118 20 3900 114 19 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Oct 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Survey (%) Domestic Credit (%) June 2011–June 2012 June 2011–June 2012 100 120 80 100 60 80 40 60 20 40 0 -20 20 -40 0 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Feb 12 Dec 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Annualised change in domestic credit Annualised growth rate (M2) Annualised change in private sector credit Annualised growth rate (M1) Previous 12 months growth in domestic credit Growth over the previous 12 months (M2) Source: National Bank of CambodiaSource: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Survey External Development Assistance Disbursement April 2011–June 2012 Agriculture 27000 2001–2011 24000 160 21000 18000 140 15000 12000 120 KHR bn 9000 6000 100 USD m 3000 0 80 -3000 60 -6000 -9000 40 -12000 20 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Liquidity Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Credit Government Deposits OtherSource: National Bank of Cambodia Source: The Cambodia Development Effectiveness Report 2011, CDC Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ពាណិជកម្មេ្រកៅ្របេទស និង ការអនុវត្តថវិកាជាតិ ្ជ External Trade and National Budget Operations Cambodian Imports Cambodian Exports April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 30 500 5.7 Other textile products 5.3 Steel 450 Shoes 29.7 Clothing (all kinds) 27.9 25 Cement 400 Construction equipment 350 20 12.5 300 USD m USD m 15 250 436.0 411.2 3.8 200 10 150 6.4 5.4 100 5 5.5 50 4.6 0 0 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Imports: Energy Current Budget Operations April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 60 500 Gasoline Diesel Fuel oil 400 50 300 40 200 KHR bn USD m 30 100 20 0 -2.332 10 -100 0 -200 -166.29 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: MEF Bulletin Current Budget Revenue Current Budget Expenditure April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 800 Non-tax 800 Import and export taxes 700 700 Domestic taxes 136.1 600 58 600 500 55 500 187.1 KHR bn 113 400 KHR bn 400 250.9 300 183.6 300 95 200 200 226.9 298 402 100 204.5 100 0 0 Feb 12 Aug 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Other services Subsidies and social assistance WagesSource: MEF Bulletin Source: MEF Bulletin Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ៃថ្លេស ៀងអាហារតាមេខត្តកង្របេទសកម្ពជា ្នុ ុ Provincial Food Prices Food Prices in Siem Reap Province Food Prices in Battambang Province June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–August 2012 25000 35000 21500 35000 21500 30000 18000 30000 18000 25000 14500 25000 14500 Riels/kg Riels/kg Riels/kg Riels/kg 20000 11000 20000 11000 15000 7500 15000 7500 4000 10000 4000 10000 500 5000 500 5000 Aug 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Oct 11 Dec 11 Jun 11 Feb 12 Jun 12 Feb 12 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)Source: CDRI Source: CDRI Food Prices in Kompong Cham Province Food Prices in Kampot Province June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–August 2012 21500 35000 21500 35000 18000 30000 18000 30000 14500 25000 14500 25000 Riels/kg Riels/kgRiels/kg Riels/kg 11000 20000 11000 20000 7500 15000 7500 15000 4000 10000 4000 10000 500 5000 500 5000 Jun 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Aug 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei(left) Fresh fish (left) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right)Source: CDRI Source: CDRI Food Prices in Svay Rieng Province Food Prices in Kompong Speu Province June 2011–August 2012 June 2011–August 2012 21500 29000 25000 31000 21500 27000 18000 25000 18000 23000 14500 21000 14500 19000 Riels/kg Riels/kg Riels/kg Riels/kg 11000 17000 11000 15000 7500 13000 7500 11000 4000 9000 4000 7000 500 5000 500 3000 Oct 11 Dec 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Dec 11 Apr 12 Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) Rice-Phka Knhei (left) Fresh fish (left) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) 1st quality pork (right) 1st quality beef (right) Source: CDRISource: CDRI Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 7
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ៃថ្លទំនញតាមេខត្តក្នុង្របេទសកម្ពុជា៖ តាមមុខទំនញ ិ ិ Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Rice Prices in Three Provinces 3500 3500 3000 3000 2900 2900 2850 2500 2500 2750 2750 2700 2700 2800 2750 2700 2600 2600 2650 2700 2650 2625 2700 2700 2650 2700 2725 2650 2500 2600 2000 2000 Riels/kg Riels/kg 1500 1500 1000 1000 Battambang 500 Kampot 500 Kompong Speu Siem Reap Kompong Cham Svay Rieng 0 0 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12Source: CDRI Source: CDRI Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Fish Prices in Three Provinces 18000 18000 16000 16000 16250 16000 16000 16250 14000 14000 15500 14000 12000 12000 13000 13000 13000 Riels/kg 12750 Riels/kg 12000 12500 12000 12000 12000 12000 10000 12250 11500 10000 11500 11250 10750 10000 10500 10000 8000 8000 6000 6000 4000 Battambang 4000 Kampot Kompong Speu 2000 2000 Siem Reap Kompong Cham Svay Rieng 0 0 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12Source: CDRI Source: CDRI Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces Cambodia: Pork Prices in Three Provinces 21000 21000 19000 19000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 19000 19000 19000 18000 17000 17000 17750 18000 18000 17500 18000 18000 17750 18000 17750 17250 17000 17000 16250 15000 15000Riels/kg Riels/kg 13000 13000 11000 11000 9000 9000 Battambang Kampot 7000 7000 Kompong Speu Siem Reap Kompong Cham Svay Rieng 5000 5000 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12Source: CDRI Source: CDRI Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 8
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ៃថ្លទំនញ ការនាំេចញ និង ចំននេទសចរអន្តរជាតិេនៅក្នុង្របេទសជាៃដគូរបស់កម្ពុជា ិ ួ Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Tapioca Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew Nuts April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 7000 10000 9000 6000 8000 5000 7000 USD per tonne USD per tonne 6000 4000 5000 3000 4000 2000 3000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 Apr 11 Jun 11 Dec 11 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Apr 11 Dec 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Jun 12 Rice Rubber Tapioca Rice Rubber Cashew nutsSource: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Thailand: Exports Vietnam: Exports April 2011–June 2012 April 2011–June 2012 1800 270 480 220 1600 240 400 190 1400 210 320 160USD m USD m 1200 180 1000 150 240 130 USD m USD m 800 120 160 100 600 90 400 60 80 70 200 30 0 40 Dec 11 Aug 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Rice (left) Rice (left) Rubber (left) Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left) Cashew nuts (right) Tapioca (right)Source: Customs Department of Thailand Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Thailand: International Arrivals Vietnam: International Arrivals September 2010–November 2011 May 2011–July 2012 1800 800 1600 700 1400 600 000 persons 1200 000 persons 500 1000 400 800 300 600 200 400 South Asia Others 200 Europe 100 Business East Asia Tourism 0 0 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 May 11 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11Source: Thailand Office of Tourism Development Source: Estimates by General Statistics Office of Vietnam Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 9
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 សកម្មភាពេសដ្ឋកច្ច និង អ្រតាអតិផរណាេនៅបណា្ដ្របេទសជាៃដគូរបស់កម្ពុជា ិ Economic Activity and Inflation Rates of Selected Economic Partners of Cambodia Year-on-Year Growth of Main Exports: Japan Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan May 2011–July 2012 May 2011–July 2012 100% 240 220 80% 200 60% 180 160 40% 140 USD bn 120 20% 100 0% 80 60 -20% 40 20 -40% 0 May 11 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jul 12 Nov 11 May 11 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jul 12 Manufactured goods Machinery Electricial machinery US Euro zone Japan Transport equipment TotalSource: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD External Trade: Malaysia Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan May 2011–July 2012 (percent price change from a year earlier) 22.0 5 20.0 4 18.0 16.0 3 14.0 2 USD bn 12.0 Exports 10.0 1 Imports 8.0 0 Trade balance 6.0 4.0 -1 2.0 May 11 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Nov 11 Jul 12 0.0 Jul 11 Jul 12 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 May 11 May 12 Mar 12 USA Euro zone JapanSource: Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Malaysia Sources: IMF and Economist (1 Sep 2012) Inflation Rates: China, Hong Kong & South Korea Inflation Rates: Selected ASEAN Countries (percent price change from a year earlier) (percent price change from a year earlier) 9 6 8 5 7 6 4 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Nov 11 May 11 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jul 12 Nov 11 May 11 May 12 Mar 12 Sep 11 Jan 12 Jul 11 Jul 12 China Hong Kong South Korea Malaysia Singapore ThailandSources: IMF and Economist (1 Sep 2012) Sources: IMF and Economist (1 Sep 2012) Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 10
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 អ្រតាប្តូរ្របាក់ និង សានភាពៃថ្លទំនញេលើទផ រអន្តរជាតិ ិ ី Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets KRW & HKD per USD EUR & JPY per USD February 2011–August 2012 February 2011–August 2012 1180 7.83 118 0.87 1160 7.82 114 0.84 110 0.81 1140 7.81 106 0.78 1120 7.80 102 0.75 1100 7.79 98 0.72 EUR JPY 94 0.69 KRW HKD 1080 7.78 90 0.66 1060 7.77 86 0.63 82 0.60 1040 7.76 78 0.57 1020 7.75 74 0.54 1000 7.74 70 0.51 Feb 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 KRW (left scale) HKD (right scale) JPY (left scale) EUR (right scale)Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York THB & SGD per USD Rice: International Rice Price Index & Export Prices February 2011–August 2012 February 2011–August 2012 675 278 1.47 40 650 1.44 SGD (left scale) 38 256 625 THB (right scale) 233 1.41 36 600 USD per tonne FOB 1.38 34 575 211 IPO* 1.35 32 550 189 SGD THB 525 1.32 30 167 500 1.29 28 144 475 1.26 26 450 122 1.23 24 425 100 Feb 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 1.20 22 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 USA 2/4 (left) Thai 100% B (left) IPO (right)Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz *International Price Index of Osiriz/InfoArroz Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Rubber Prices: Gasoline & Diesel Fuel February 2011–August 2012 June 2011–August 2012 1200 6000 100 1100 5500 90 1000 5000 73.7 83.0 80 900 4500 78.4 70 USD per tonne FOB USD per tonne FOB 800 4000 78.5 60 US Cents 700 3500 600 3000 50 500 2500 40 400 2000 30 300 1500 200 1000 20 100 500 10 0 0 0 Feb 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 11 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Feb 12 Aug 11 Aug 12 Apr 12 Jun 11 Jun 12 Dec 11 Oct 11 Soybeans: US No.1, Yellow (left scale) Gasoline: US Gulf Coast - US cents/litre Maize: US No.2, Yellow (left scale) Rubber SMR 5 (right scale) Diesel: low sulphur No.2 - US cents/litreSource: Food and Agriculture Organisation Source: US Energy Information Administration Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 11
  • Cambodia Economic Flash Report –September 2012 ព័ត៌មានេសដ្ឋកច្ច ិ Economic News ព័តមនេសដ្ឋកចសំខន់ៗ ៌ ិ ច Economic News Highlightsកមពុជនំេចញេកស៊ូ ២២.៨៧៨េ ន កនុងឆមសទ១ ឆ២០១២ ី នំ Cambodia exports 22,878 tonnes of rubber in the first six months of 2012 មទនននយពី្រកសួ ងេសដ្ឋកិចច និងហរញញ វតថុ កមពុជបននំេចញ ិ ័ ិេកស៊ូ ២២.៨៧៨េ ន កនុងឆមសទី១ ឆេនះ ឬេកើន ១២,៩% ន ំ Data from the Ministry of Economy andេបេធៀបនងរយៈេពលដូចគកលពឆមុន។ េទះយងេនះក្តី តៃម្ល ើ ឹ ន ី នំ ៉ Finance show that Cambodia exported 22,878 tonnes of rubber in the first six months of thisេកស៊ូនេចញ បនធក់ចុះ ២៤,៤% មក្រតឹម ៧៤,៥ ំ ្ល នដុ ្ល រ year, a 12.9 percent increase from the sameេ យ រ ៃថ្លេកស៊ូអន្តរជតិបនធក់ចុះ។ ្ល េនែខមថុន ិ period last year. However, the value of rubberៃថ្លេកស៊ូអន្តរជតិ បនធក់ចុះ ៣៦,៥% េធៀបនងមួយឆមុន ្ល នំ exports dropped by 24.4 percent to USD74.5 ឹ m, due to the decrease in the internationalមក្រតម ឹ ២៩២៨,៣ដុ ្ល រ/េ ន។ ្របេទស ៊ ន ជ price of rubber. In June, the price declined byទីផ រចមបងស្រមប់ករនំេចញេកស៊ូ។ កនុងរយៈេពលដែដល 36.5 percent year on year toករនំេចញេកស៊ូរបស់្របេទសេវៀត ម នង ៃថ បនធក់ចុះ ្ល USD2928.3/tonne. ASEAN countries are the ិ major markets for rubber exports. In the same៤,៩% នង ២៥,៩% េរៀងគ។ ិ ន period, the value of rubber exports of Vietnam and Thailand also decreased by 4.9 percentេនឆ២០១១ នំ កមពុជ ផលិតេកស៊ូសួ ងតបន ៤៤.៩៦៩េ ន and 25.9 percent, respectively.ឬេកនេឡង ៧,១% េធៀបនងរយៈេពលដូចគកលពឆ២០១០ ើ ើ ឹ ន ី នំេបេយង ើ មសថិតិពី្រកសួ ងកសិកមម In 2011, Cambodia produced 44,969 metric រុក្របមញ់ ខ និងេន ទ។ tonnes of dried rubber, representing a 7.1ៃផទដ្របមូលផលជ័រេកស៊ូ ី េកន ១៧,៦% េធៀបនងកលពី percent rise from 2010, according to the ើ ឹមួយឆមុន ដល់ ៤៥.១៦២ហិក ។ នំ Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Tapping areas increased by 17.6ករនំេចញរបស់កមពុជ េកនដល់ ២,៥ពន់ នដុ ្ល រ េន percent from a year earlier to 45,162 ha. ើឆមសទ១ ឬេកើន ១៣,៦% ពី ២,២ពន់ ី នដុ ្ល រ េនកនុង Cambodia’s total exports reachedរយៈេពលដូចគឆមុន។ ករនំេចញេទសហភពអុរប (EU) េកន ន នំ ឺ ុ៉ ើ approximately USD2.5 bn in the first six២៨,៩% ដល់ ៧៨០ នដុ ្ល រ េទប ្ត ្របេទស ៊ នេកន ើ months, a 13.6 percent rise from USD2.2 bn in៦,២% ដល់ ១៥៥ នដុ ្ល រ េទ្របេទសជប៉ុនេកន ៣៨,១% ើ the same period last year. Exports to the EU rose by 28.9 percent to USD780 m, to ASEANដល់ ៩០,៧ នដុ ្ល រ េទ្របេទសេផ ងៗេទៀតេកន ៣៨,៣% ើ countries by 6.2 percent to USD155 m, toដល់ ៥៣១ នដុ ្ល រ និង េទសហរដ្ឋ េមរកេកើន ១,៩% ដល់ ិ Japan by 38.1 percent to USD90.7 m, to other៩៦៧ នដុ ្ល រ។ countries by 38.3 percent to USD531 m and to the US by 1.9 percent to USD967 m. Links to others economic news 1. “IMF: Cambodias economy expected to grow 7 pct in 2012” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/20 12-10/02/c_131885405.htm) 2. “Cambodia to levy economic land concessions tax” (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012 -09/28/c_131880215.htm) 3. “Address at the Launching of the Tourism Strategic Development Plan 2012 – 2020” (http://www.cnv.org.kh/2012_releases/20sep12 _tourism_NSDP_launch_speech.html0 Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 12