ISSN 1810-6358វិទ              នបណ្ណុះប                    ល និង ្រ               វ្រ        វេដើម្បីអភិវឌ្ឍន៍កម្ពុ       ...
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011                     របក្រ     យ         ងសំ     ន់ៗ                         ...
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011 បក់ចំណលពនធកុ ង សក ធក់ចុះ ៣៣% មក តម ៣០៣ពន់       ូ      ន                   ឹ...
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011                                                                             ...
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011                                                                             ...
Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011                                                                     ណិជកម្មេ...
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011
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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011

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Every month, beginning in January 2002, CDRI will publish a snap shot of recent and important economic indicators, both for Cambodia and for Cambodia's major economic partners. These include economic growth, prices, exchange rates, monetary developments, foreign trade and national budget operations.
Source:http://www.cdri.org.kh

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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy, November 2011

  1. 1. ISSN 1810-6358វិទ នបណ្ណុះប ល និង ្រ វ្រ វេដើម្បីអភិវឌ្ឍន៍កម្ពុ CDRI—Cambodia’s leading independent development policy research institute រ យ រណ៍ថ្មីៗស្តីពីេសដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុ Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy វចឆក ២០១១ ¼ ិ ិ November 2011 រតន វឌ ន ័ ¼ Roth Vathana អ៊ន វមល ¼ Ourn Vimoil ួ ិ បកែ បេ យ៖ យូ សិទីរទធ និង េខង េសង ធ ិ ភនេពញ កមពុជ ំ Phnom Penh, Cambodia TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia; postal address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia;tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 ; fax: (855-23) 880-734 ; email: pubs@cdri.org.kh; website: http://www.cdri.org.kh
  2. 2. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011 របក្រ យ ងសំ ន់ៗ Highlightsរបយករណេនះ ៍ បក យពីសូចនករេសដកិចសំខន់ៗរបស់កមពុជ ច This report highlights a number of economic indicators of Cambodia and its partners. Itនងប ិ បេទសៃដគូពណជជកមម ិ េ យេធករេ ប បេធ បតួេលខ compares recent figures with those of earlierកនុងែខថមីៗេនះ ជមួយនងែខមុនៗ។ ឹ periods.េន តមសទី២ ឆ២០១១ កម បក អភវឌ ន៍កមពុជ មនមនអនុមត ី នំ ឹ ិ ិ ័ In the second quarter of 2011, there were no new fixed asset investments in agriculture approved byវនិេយគគិតជ ទពយសកមមជប់ ិ ប់ថីម កនុងវស័យកសិកមមេទ។ េនែខ ិ the Council for the Development of Cambodia. Inកញ ចំនួនេភញ វេទសចរបរេទសសរុបមកដល់កមពុជ ធក់ចុះ ១៦% ញ September, total foreign arrivals to Cambodiaេធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តម ២០៩.៨០៤នក់។ េភញ វេទសចរមកស មក ឹ dropped by 16 percent from a month earlier, to 209,804. Visitors for holidays decreased by 18លំ ែហ ធក់ចុះ ១៨% មក តឹម ១៩៤.៤៨៥នក់ នង េភញ វមក ិ percent to 194,485 and other arrivals by 5.8កនុងបំណងេផ ងៗេទ ត ធក់ចុះ ៥.៨% មក តម ឹ ២៦១៨នក់។ percent to 2618. Business arrivals went up by 8.8 ំេភញ វមកេធជនួញ េកន ៨.៨% ដល់ ១២.៧០១នក់។  percent to 12,701.េនែខសី តៃមអនុមតិគេ មង In August the value of villa and house construction ងសង់ភូមិ គះ និងផទះ េនទី កង ឹ approvals in Phnom Penh rose by 627 percentភនេពញ េកន ៦២៧% េធ បនឹងែខមុន ដល់ ៨០,៨ នដុ រ េហយ compared to the preceding month, to USD80.8 m, ំតៃមអនុមតិគេ មង ងសង់េផ ងៗេទ ត េកន ២៤% ដល់ ១៥,៥ and “other” rose by 24 percent to USD15.5 m. The នដុ រ។ តៃមអនុមតិគេ មងផទះែលង ធក់ចុះ ៦៣% មក តឹម value of flats went down by 63 percent to USD20.7 m.២០,៧ នដុ រ។ In August, the Phnom Penh consumer price indexេនែខសី សនទស ន៍ៃថទំនិញេ ប បស់េនទី កងភមេពញ ( គប់មុខ ំ (all items) rose by 6.4 percent year on year. Theទំនិញ) េកន ៦,៤% េធ បនឹងមួយឆមុន។ ៃថ នំ រ និងេភសជជៈ prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages wentមនមនជតិ េកន ៧,៦% ៃថ ន ក់េន និងទឹកេភង េកន ៤,០% up by 7.6 percent, housing and utilities by 4.0 ិ  percent and household furnishings and operationsេហយៃថដំេណករ និងសមរៈបំពក់កុ ងផទះ េកន ២,១%។ េនែខតុ   ភ ន by 2.1 percent. In October the price of diesel fuelមស៊ូត ធក់ៃថ ២,៦% េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តឹម ៤៨៤៦,៨េរ ល/លី ត dropped 2.6 percent from the previous month, to ៉េហយ េ បង ំ ង ធក់ៃថ ២,៤% មក តឹម ៥១៩៧,១េរ ល/លី ត។ KHR4846.8/litre and of gasoline by 2.4 percent to KHR5197.1/litre.េនែខតុ អ បូរ បក់េរ លេនទីផ រ ធក់ៃថ ០,៥% ទល់នឹង In October market exchange rate of the riel បក់ដុ រ េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តម ៤១០១,៨េរ ល/ដុ ឹ រ ។ េនែខ depreciated against the dollar by 0.5 percent fromដែដល បក់េរ ល េឡងៃថ ០,២% ទល់នឹង បក់បតៃថ និង េឡងៃថ a month earlier, to KHR4101.8 per dollar. In the same period, the riel appreciated against the Thai០,១% ទល់នឹង បក់ដុងេវ ត ម។ baht by 0.2 percent and by 0.1 percent against the Vietnamese dong.េនែខសី ករនំចូលសមរៈសំ ណង់ ធក់ចុះ ១,៧% េធ បនងែខមុន ភ ឹមក តម ៣,៨ ឹ នដុ រ េហយករនំចូលែដកែថប ធក់ចុះ ៥២%  In August, imports of construction equipmentមក តម ៣,៤ នដុ រ។ ករនំចូលសុ ី មងត៍ េកន ១,៥% ដល់ ៉ ់ decreased by 1.7 percent from the preceding ឹ  month to USD3.8 m and of steel by 52 percent to៤,៨ នដុ រ េហយករនំចូលេ បងមស៊ូត ធក់ចុះ ៩,៧% មក តម  ៉ ឹ USD3.4 m. Imports of cement increased by 1.5៣៨,៩ នដុ រ នងករនំចូលមស៊ូតេខ ធក់ចុះ ២៧% មក តឹម ិ ៉ ម percent to USD4.8 m. Imports of diesel oil៥,៩ នដុ រ។ ករនំចូលេ បង ំង េកន ៦,៨% ដល់ ២៥,៤ ន dropped by 9.7 percent to USD38.9 m and of fuel oil by 27 percent to USD5.9 m. Imports ofដុ រ។ េនែខដែដល ករនំេចញសំ េល កបំពក់ ( គប់ បេភទ) ធក់ gasoline went up by 6.8 percent to USD25.4 m. Inចុះ ១៥% មក តម ៣៧២,១ ឹ នដុ រ េហយករនំេចញែសបកេជង  the same month, exports of clothing (all kinds)ធក់ចុះ ២២% មក តម ២៣,២ នដុ រ នងករនំេចញផលិតផល decreased by 15 percent to USD372.1 m, of shoes ឹ ិ by 22 percent to USD23.2 m and of other textile យនភ័ណេផ ងៗ ធក់ចុះ ១០% មក តម ៥,១ ឹ នដុ រ។ products by 10 percent to USD5.1 m.េនែខឧសភ បក់ចំណលចរនសរុបរបស់រ ូ ភបល ធក់ចុះ ២០% ិ In May total government current revenue droppedមក តម ឹ ៤៧៤,៥ពន់ ឹ by 20 percent from a month earlier to KHR474.5 នេរ លេធ បនងមួយែខមុន។ ពនធនចូល ំ bn. Import and export taxes increased by 11នងនំេចញ េកនេឡង ១១% ដល់ ៩៣,៦ពន់ នេរ ល េហយ ិ    percent to KHR93.6 bn and non-tax revenues by បក់ចំណលមនែមនពនធ េកន ៣៤% ដល់ ៧៨ពន់ នេរ ល។ 34 percent to KHR78 bn. Revenues from domestic ូ ិ  Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 2
  3. 3. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011 បក់ចំណលពនធកុ ង សក ធក់ចុះ ៣៣% មក តម ៣០៣ពន់ ូ ន ឹ ន taxes decreased by 33 percent to KHR303 bn. In the same month, total current expenditure went upេរ ល។ េនែខដែដល ចំ យចរនសរុប េកនេឡង ៤,៨% ដល់ by 4.8 percent to KHR353.2 bn, of which៣៥៣,២ពន់ នេរ ល េហយចំ  យជឧបតថមភធន នងជំនួយខង ិ expenditure on subsidies and social assistanceសងគមកិចច េកន ៥៦% ដល់ ១២១,៧ពន់  នេរ ល។ ចំ យេល increased by 56 percent to KHR121.7 bn. Wages expenditure dropped by 9.2 percent to KHR145 bnេប វត រ ៍ ធក់ចុះ ៩,២% មក តឹម ១៤៥ពន់ នេរ ល េហយចំ យ and other services by 13 percent to KHR86.4 bn.េលេស កមមេផ ងៗ ធក់ចុះ ១៣% មក តម ៨៦,៤ពន់ ឹ នេរ ល។ In August in Thailand prices of rice decreased byេនែខសី េន បេទសៃថ អងករធក់ៃថ ១២% េធ បនឹងែខមុន មក តម ឹ 12 percent compared to the previous month to៥៨២,៨ដុ រ/េ ន េកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ ១,៣% មក តម ៤២៤៤,៧ ឹ USD582.8/tonne, of rubber by 1.3 percent to USD4244.7/tonne and of maize and maizeដុ រ/េ ន េហយ េពតនិងផលិតផលេធពីេពត ធក់ៃថ ២,៤%  products by 2.4 percent to USD439.3/tonne. In theមក តម ៤៣៩,៣ដុ ឹ រ/េ ន។ េនែខដែដល េន បេទសេវ ត ម same period in Vietnam, prices of rice increasedអងករ េឡងៃថ ៤,០% ដល់ ៥១៧ដុ រ/េ ន និង គប់ យចនទី េឡង by 4.0 percent to USD517/tonne and of cashew nuts by 2.3 percent to USD9095/tonne, whileៃថ ២,៣% ដល់ ៩០៩៥ដុ រ/េ ន សបេពលែដលេកស៊ូ ធក់ៃថ rubber dropped by 0.1 percent to USD4247/tonne.០,១% មក តម ៤២៤៧ដុ ឹ រ/េ ន។ In August, Thai exports of rice dropped by 8.2េនែខសី ករនំេចញអងករេនៃថ ធក់ចុះ ៨,២% េធ បនឹងែខមុន percent from the preceding month to USD590.3 m.មក តម ៥៩០,៣ នដុ រ។ ករនំេចញេកស៊ូធមមជតិ នងជ័រ Exports of natural rubber and similar natural gums ឹ ិ went up by 5.4 percent to USD1128.4 m (74ធមមជតិ េកន ៥,៤% ដល់ ១១២៨,៤ នដុ រ (៧៤% េធ បនឹង percent year on year) and maize and maizeមួយឆមុន) នង ករនំេចញេពត និងផលិតផលេធពីេពត េកន ១៧% នំ ិ products by 17 percent to USD12.3 m (68 percentដល់ ១២,៣ នដុ រ (៦៨% េធ បនឹងមួយឆមន)។ កនុងែខេនះែដរ នំ ុ year on year). In the same period, Vietnam’s exports of rice increased 22 percent from theេនេវ ត ម ករនំេចញអងករ េកនេឡង ២២% េធ បនឹងែខមុន ដល់  previous month to USD395 m, of rubber by 1.2៣៩៥ នដុ រ ករនំេចញេកស៊ូ េកន ១,២% ដល់ ៣៤៤  ន percent to USD344 m and of cashew nuts by 13ដុ រ នងករនំេចញ គប់ យចនទី េកន ១៣% ដល់ ១៩១ ន percent to USD191 m. ិដុ រ។ In September, US exports increased by 2.0 percent from the preceding month to USD129.3 bn andេនែខកញ ករនំេចញរបស់សហរដ ញ េមរក េកន ២,០% េធ បនឹង ិ Japan’s by 13 percent to USD77.6 bn. Exports ofែខមុន ដល់១២៩,៣ពន់ នដុ រ េហយករនំេចញរបស់ជប៉ុន េកន  the euro zone dropped by 5.2 percent to USD212.3 bn. In August Malaysian exports went down 0.7១៣% ដល់ ៧៧,៦ពន់ នដុ រ។ ករនំេចញរបស់តំបន់អឺរូ ៉ ធក់ចុះ percent to USD19.6 bn and imports 4.1 percent to៥,២% មក តម ២១២,៣ពន់ ឹ នដុ រ។ េនែខសី ករនំេចញ USD16 bn.របស់មេឡសុ ី ធក់ចុះ ០,៧% មក តម ១៩,៦ពន់ ៉ ឹ នដុ រ េហយ In August, inflation in the US was 3.8 percent andករនំចូល ធក់ចុះ ៤,១% មក តម ១៦ពន់ ឹ នដុ រ។ 0.2 percent in Japan. Inflation in the euro zone remained unchanged. In the same period, inflationេនែខសី អតិផរ េនសហរដ េមរក មន ៣,៨% និង េនជប៉ុន ិ in China was 6.2 percent and 5.7 percent in Hong០,២% ឯេនតំបន់អឺរូ ៉ េនេថរ។ កនុងែខេនះែដរ អតិផរ េន បេទស Kong, a 2.2 percentage point decrease compared toចន គឺ ៦,២% េហយេនហុងកុង ៥,៧% ឬ ធក់ចុះ ២,២ឯក ភគរយ a month earlier. Inflation in South Korea was 5.3 ិ percent.េធ បនឹងែខមុន។ អតិផរ េនកូេរខងតបូង មនក មត ៥,៣%។ ៉ ិ In October, the prices of soybeans (US No. 1)េនែខតុ សែណកេស ង (US No. 1) ធក់ៃថ ៨,៤% មក តម ឹ dropped by 8.4 percent compared to the previous៤៦៧,៤ដុ រ/េ ន េពត (US No.2) ធក់ៃថ ១០% មក តម ឹ month, to USD467.4/tonne, of maize (US No. 2)២៧៤,៨ដុ រ/េ ន និងេកស៊ូ (SMR 5) ធក់ៃថ ៩,២% មក តម by 10 percent to USD274.8/tonne and of rubber ឹ (SMR 5) by 9.2 percent to USD4149.2/tonne. In៤១៤៩,២ដុ រ/េ ន។ េនែខដែដល េ បងេឆ (OPEC spot) the same month, the price of crude oil (OPECធក់ៃថ ០,៧% មក តម ១០៩,៧ដុ ឹ រ/ធុង េហយេ បង  ំង (US spot) decreased by 0.7 percent toGulf Coast) ធក់ៃថ ០,៧% មក តឹម ០,៧១ដុ រ/លី ត នង USD109.7/barrel, of gasoline (US Gulf Coast) by ិ 0.7 percent to USD0.71/litre and of diesel (lowេ បងមស៊ូត (low sulphur No. 2) ធក់ៃថ ៣,៤% មក តឹម ០,៧៥ ៉ sulphur No. 2) by 3.4 percent to USD0.75/litre.ដុ រ/លី ត។ Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 3
  4. 4. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011 សកម្ម ពេសដ្ឋកចសំ ិ ្ច ន់ៗ និង ៃថ្លទនិញេ ំ កម្ពុ Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia Fixed Asset Investment Approvals by CDC Foreign Visitor Arrivals Agriculture July 2010-September 2011 2008 Q3–2011 Q2 600 Other 300 Business 500 Holiday 250 400 000 persons 200 USD m 300 150 3 12 3 200 10 13 100 10 41.4 100 194 50 153 236 0.0 4.1 0.0 0 0 Mar 11 Nov 10 Jan 11 May 11 Jul 10 Jul 11 Sep 10 Sep 11 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2Including expansion projects.Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia Source: Ministry of Tourism Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals CPI: Consumer Price Index June 2010–August 2011 June 2010–August 2011 140 175 Other 15.5 Flats 120 160 Villas & houses 100 145 20.7 80 USD m 130 60 115 40 80.8 100 Jun 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 10 Aug 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jul 11 Aug 11 20 0 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Apr 11 All items Food & non-alcoholic beverages Clothing and footwear Housing and utilities Household furnishings and operationsSource: Municipality of Phnom Penh Source: CDRI Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans (%) August 2010–October 2011 May 2010–July 2011 25 5197 6000 5000 20 Percentage Per Annum 4847 4000 15 Riels/ℓ 3000 10 2000 5 1000 Diesel Riel loan rate Gasoline Dollar loan rate 0 0 Jan 11 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Oct 11 Aug 10 Aug 11Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 4
  5. 5. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011 ន ពអ្រ ប្តូរ្រ ក់ និង ជំនួយអភិវឌ្ឍន៍ពីេ្រ ្របេទស Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance Riels per US Dollar Riels per THB & VND August 2010–October 2011 August 2010–October 2011 142 26 4300 4202 4250 138 25 132.3 132.5 4200 134 24 KHR per VDN100 4102 4150 KHR per Baht 4185 4083 130 23 Thai baht (left) 4100 Vietnamese dong (right) 126 22 4050 4085 4077 122 21 4000 19.7 19.6 Market rate 118 20 3950 Official rate 114 19 3900 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Oct 11 Aug 10 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11Source: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Survey (%) Domestic Credit (%) May 2010–July 2011 May 2010–July 2011 100 140 80 120 100 60 80 40 60 20 40 0 20 -20 0 -20 -40 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Jan 11 May 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 May 11 Jul 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Jul 11 Annualised growth rate (M2) Annualised change in domestic credit Annualised growth rate (M1) Annualised change in private sector credit Growth over the previous 12 months (M2) Previous 12 months growth in domestic creditSource: National Bank of Cambodia Source: National Bank of Cambodia Monetary Operations External Development Assistance Disbursement May 2010–July 2011 Top Five Development Assistance 23000 2005–2009 20000 180 17000 150 14000 11000 120 KHR bn KHR bn 8000 90 5000 2000 60 -1000 30 -4000 -7000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 -10000 May 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 May 11 Jul 10 Sep 10 Mar 11 Jul 11 Transportation Health Liquidity Net Foreign Assets Private Sector Credit Governance & Administration Education Government Deposits Other AgricultureSource: National Bank of Cambodia Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2009, CDC Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 5
  6. 6. Cambodia Economic Flash Report –November 2011 ណិជកម្មេ្រ ្ជ ្របេទស និង រអនុវត្តថវិ តិ External Trade and National Budget Operations Cambodian Total Imports Cambodian Total Exports June 2010–August 2011 June 2010–August 2011 25 500 Steel Other textile products 450 Shoes 5.1 Cement 20 400 Clothing (all kinds) Construction equipment 23.2 350 15 300 3.39 USD m USD m 250 10 200 372.1 150 4.84 5 100 50 3.83 0 0 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Imports: Energy Current Budget Operations June 2010–August 2011 March 2010–May 2011 60 400 Gasoline (E.A) 350 Diesel (D.O) 50 Fuel oil (FO) 300 254.7 250 40 KHR bn USD m 200 30 150 121.3 100 20 50 4.9 0 10 -50 0 -100 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Jun 10 Aug 10 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Mar 11 May 11 Jan 11Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Source: MEF Bulletin Current Budget Revenue Current Budget Expenditure March 2010–May 2011 March 2010–May 2011 800 700 Non-tax Other services Import and Export taxes 700 Subsidies and social assistance 600 Domestic taxes 58 Wages 600 500 500 79 78 84 400 KHR bn KHR bn 400 86 300 80 94 300 450 200 122 200 307 303 100 100 145 0 0 Jul 10 May 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 May 11 Mar 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 Mar 10 May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11Source: MEF Bulletin Source: MEF Bulletin Cambodia Development Resource Institute – Page 6

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