Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia -koulutus 29.4.2014

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Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia -kurssi: Investtechin toimitusjohtaja Espen Grönstad

Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia -kurssi: Investtechin toimitusjohtaja Espen Grönstad

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  • 1. 1 SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS! ESPEN GRØNSTAD CEO – INVESTTECH WWW.INVESTTECH.COM Copyright © 2013-11-20 • Norwegian company established 1997 • Based on scientific research • Solid documented results • Independent and objective analyses • Subscriptions: INVESTOR Investtech AS Stock analysis 3 • Fundamental analyis: Security! • Technical analysis: Timing!
  • 2. 2 4 Technical analysis Supply Demand Price All relevant information that the investors as a goup possess, is always represented in the stock price. Volume Depression Skepticism Optimism Greed Denial Pessimism Fear Depression Greed Market psychology 2006 2007 2008 “It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong” - George Soros . 6 Mindset
  • 3. 3 7 Technology 8 Mindset 99 Trends Rising trends Neutral trends Falling trends
  • 4. 4 Trends 1-6 quarters6 yearsLong term 1-6 months8 monthsMedium term 1-6 weeks5 monthsShort term Investment horizonChartTime horizon 11 Signal from Trends ? 12 Signal from Trends Average price development five days before trend signal and one year after trend signal for Norwegian stocks in the period 1996-2009. 20,0% 12,3% Index 5,2% Buy signal Sell signal
  • 5. 5 Trends – help Support and Resistance Support Resistance Resistance Support Support and Resistance
  • 6. 6 Support and Resistance 17 17 SKEPTIC ENVIOUS GREED BUY INVINCIBLE FRUSTRATED PANIC INDIFFERENT Never again HAPPY SKEPTIC BUY! Support and Resistance Formations Rectangle Double top/bottom Head and shoulders 67%
  • 7. 7 19 Top formation Oslo Børs 14. January 2008 2020 20 Bottom formations OMX Stockholm 30 - 30 April 2009 21 The theory says that the price will reach the objective within L days. • How often does this happen? • Can this be used in a trading strategy? Investtech – Research report Results:
  • 8. 8 Investtech – Research report Success pecentage after one formation length (1L)‫‏‬ 1,088 rectangles identified on the Oslo exchange 1996-2008. Average: 13.4 % height, 98 days length 23 Success percentage after one formation length (1L)‫‏‬ 790 buy signals identified on the Dutch exchange 1996-2004. Average height 13 %, length 107 days. Investtech – Research report Buy signals from REC-formation 24 Investtech –Research report Buy signals from REC-formations Strategy Hold Return Ret. adj. Ann. ret. Ann. ret. adj. Sell at objective 64d 4.3% 1.8% 17.2% 7.1% Hold L days 96d 12.5% 10.0% 34.8% 27.4% Hold 2L days 192d 20.6% 18.2% 26.9% 23.6% Reference index 5.9% Conclusion: Based on the results above and not including any risk differences, it appears that investments based on buy signals from rectangle formations give significant excess return compared to investment in the stock exchange reference index. The best strategy seems to be to buy immediately after the buy signal and to sell after a period of time equal to the duration of the formation.
  • 9. 9 25 Formations 26 Volume • CONFIRMS OR WEAKENS TREND DIRECTION, BREAKS THROUGH SUPPORT/RESISTANCE, AND SIGNALS FROM FORMATIONS • INDICATES COMING TREND BREAKS/SIGNALS • TRUST • UNDERESTIMATED AS TECHNICAL INDICATOR Volume Negative volume Positive volume
  • 10. 10 28 Volume Increasing volume on falling prices warns of a potential trend break Decreasing volume in trend direction warns of a potential trend break Volume Technical analysis Positive trend Buy signal from formation support Near support
  • 11. 11 Technical analysis Medium 32 www.investtech.com