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Nordnetin Nokia-etkot 23.1. Henrik Husman
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Nordnetin Nokia-etkot 23.1. Henrik Husman

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Nordnetin Nokia-etkot 23.1. Henrik Husman Nordnetin Nokia-etkot 23.1. Henrik Husman Presentation Transcript

  • © Copyright 2011, The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
  • AIHEET• NASDAQ OMX• Kaupankäynnin trendit Vaihtokehitys Pirstaloituminen (Fragmentation) Nokian vaihtokehitys ja merkitys Helsingin pörssille OTC Korkean intensiteetin kaupankäynti (HFT - High Frequency Trading) 2
  • NASDAQ OMX NORDICJOULUKUU 2012 Iceland Sweden Finland• Markkina-arvo 763 mrd. euroa Estonia• Keskimääräinen osakevaihto Latvia Denmarkper päivä: 1 852 milj. euroa Lithuania• 628 listayhtiötä (pl. 11 rinnakkaislistausta)• 179 välittäjää (pl. 189 välittäjää, jotka toimivatuseammassa pörssissä) 3
  • BLUE CHIP -INDEKSIEN KEHITYS MAAILMAN PÖRSSEISSÄTAMMIKUU 2002 – JOULUKUU 2012240200160120 80 40 0 31-01-2002 31-01-2003 30-01-2004 31-01-2005 31-01-2006 31-01-2007 31-01-2008 30-01-2009 29-01-2010 31-01-2011 31-01-2012 OMXS30 OMXH25 OMXC20 NDX100 DAX30 CAC40 FTSE100 S&P500
  • INDEKSIKEHITYS NASDAQ OMX NORDIC –PÖRSSEISSÄJOULUKUU 2011 – JOULUKUU 2012 140 130 120 110 1.11.2011 = 100 100 90 80 70 60 OMXC Index 25.0% OMXH Index 4.1% OMXI Index 19.4% OMXR Index 5.6% OMXS Index 13.1% OMXT Index 30.6% OMXV Index 18.6%
  • Muutos vuodessaKESKIMÄÄRÄINEN OSAKEVAIHTO PÄIVÄSSÄ yhteensä -2 % Tukholma -3 %JOULUKUU 2011 – JOULUKUU 2012 Helsinki -2% Kööpenhamina 3% 3 000 2 500 2 000 EUR million 1 500 1 000 500 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Vilnius 0,5 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,4 2,4 0,6 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,4 Riga 0,1 0,04 0,06 0,11 0,05 0,04 0,08 0,05 0,04 0,03 0,06 0,09 0,16 Tallinn 0,3 0,6 0,6 0,7 0,7 0,6 0,3 0,3 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,8 Iceland 0,9 0,9 1,0 4,3 1,2 1,3 2,5 0,7 1,2 1,4 2,3 3,3 3,9 Copenhagen 266 358 424 382 386 404 296 260 279 306 269 333 274 Helsinki 370 473 478 493 557 392 375 307 320 370 345 289 362 Stockholm 1 250 1 515 1 595 1 527 1 601 1 360 1 311 1 114 1 011 1 365 1 253 1 098 1 210 Total 1 888 2 347 2 500 2 407 2 546 2 160 1 985 1 682 1 612 2 043 1 870 1 724 1 851 Includes system (on book), manual (off book) and OTC volume.
  • Muutos vuodessa yhteensä -21 %OSAKEKAUPPOJEN LUKUMÄÄRÄ PÄIVÄSSÄ Tukholma -25 %JOULUKUU 2011 – JOULUKUU 2012 Helsinki -19 % Kööpenhamina -8 % 500 400 1000 trades 300 200 100 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Vilnius 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,2 Riga 0,09 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,07 0,04 0,05 0,08 0,07 0,07 0,07 0,10 Tallinn 0,2 0,2 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,3 Iceland 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,03 0,05 0,06 Copenhagen 50 63 64 57 63 63 53 44 46 52 44 51 46 Helsinki 79 90 85 88 99 83 83 69 66 72 66 58 64 Stockholm 230 241 241 223 253 234 223 182 163 191 184 166 173 Total 360 395 391 369 415 381 359 295 275 315 294 276 284 Based on shares and equity related financial instruments, ETF/UCIT
  • YKSI VÄHITENPIRSTALOIDUIMMISTA NASDAQ OMX NORDIC –PÖRSSIEN MARKKINAOSUUSEUROOPAN TAMMIKUU 2009 – 14.3.2013MARKKINOISTA Helsingin markkinaosuus vakiintunut noin 65-70 prosenttiin NASDAQ OMX 8
  • TRADING BY TRADE Finnish Equity Trading by TradeCLASSIFICATION ClassificationACROSS ALL VENUES September 2012SEPTEMBER 2012 23,99% LitVS. 2,61% HiddenSEPTEMBER 2008 3,07% 6,88% 63,25% Auction Dark Order Book Off Order Book  63% of the trading is done in lit order MiFID OTC books compared to 61% four years 0,19% ago  Dark order book trading, which was Finnish Equity Trading by Trade basically non-existent four years ago, Classification now counts for 3% of the total trading September 2008  On-exchange trade reporting has shrunk from 8% to 2.6% Lit 23,71% Hidden  Pre MiFID (Nov 2007) most of OTC 8,03% 61,08% Auction trades were either reported on- Dark Order Book Exchange or done in lit books 0,05% Off Order Book 7,12% MiFID OTC 0,00% Source: Thomson Reuters NASDAQ OMX 9
  • FRAGMENTATION IN LIT ORDER BOOK TRADING(63,2% OF TOTAL) Nasdaq OMX Nordic’s market share in lit order book trading was 68.16% in September Fragmentation in Finnish Equities Lit Order Book 2012 Trading September 2012 BATS Chi-X had a 68,16% market share of 23.55% LIT=Electronig Order Book Trading 23,55% This is where price formation happens! 4,53% 1,49% 1,24% Other trading methods Nasdaq OMX BATS Chi-X Turquoise Burgundy Deutsche get reference price Nordic Europe Boerse from lit trading Equal access for all Source: Thomson ReutersNASDAQ OMX 10
  • STRONG IN A MARKET SHARE OF OWN LISTED SHARE TRADING %HIGHLY 100%COMPETITIVE 90% End of Year 2009 End of Year 2010 End of Year 2011ENVIRONMENT 80% 70% End of Year 2012NASDAQ OMX 60%Retains high market share 50%compared to other European 40%exchanges . Market share of own 30%listed Nordic share trading was 20%67.06 % by end of 2012. 10%NASDAQ OMX market share in 0% Oslo SIX Swiss NASDAQ Deutsche Euronext LSENordic equities has declined – but OMX Boersetrading in Nordic shares, aspercentage of European total, NASDAQ OMX LISTED COMPANIES’ SHARE OF EUROPEAN TURNOVERcontinue to increase.Drivers for market share 9,0% 8,1% 8,0% 7,5% 7,5%in European equity 6,7% 7,0% 7,0%▶ Liquidity 6,0%▶ High share of EBBO on a 5,0% market 4,0% 3,0%▶ Market structure 2,0%▶ Total cost of trading 1,0% 0,0%▶ Strong retail order flow in 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 orderbooks Nordic NASDAQ OMX
  • OSAKEVAIHTO EUROOPASSA ERI MARKKINAPAIKOILLATARJOUSKIRJAKAUPANKÄYNTI (EUR MILJARDIA)2005 – 2012 Market Operator 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 BATS Chi-X Europe* 50 663 1 046 2 025 2 282 1 833 - Chi-X Europe 50 658 858 1 536 1 764 - BATS Europe 5 188 489 518 2 London SE Group 2 495 3 362 4 708 3 631 1 943 2 084 2 021 1 698 3 NYSE Euronext 1 783 2 375 3 289 2 606 1 383 1 533 1 520 1 221 4 Deutsche Börse 1 125 1 593 2 443 2 192 1 084 1 237 1 252 987 5 BME (Spanish Exchanges) 848 1 151 1 666 1 243 898 1 031 874 660 6 NASDAQ OMX Nordic 544 776 1 037 818 499 568 590 454 7 SIX Swiss Exchange 543 692 1 008 957 530 595 629 452 8 Turquoise 62 268 289 448 372 9 Istanbul Stock Exchange 314 300 260 10 Oslo Børs 142 254 321 276 164 199 175 113 11 Burgundy 5 23 32 21 All the figures above comply with the FESE Statistics Methodology. Domestic and Foreign figures are included. *As of December 2011, BATS merged with Chi-X Europe in result of BATS Chi-X Europe
  • TRADING TURNOVER VELOCITY ON EQUITY TRADING FOR BENCHMARK EXCHANGEVELOCITY KEY Nordic & European 200% NASDAQ OMX US 1200%DRIVER FOR 1000%FUTURE 150% 800%GROWTH 100% 600%Great potential in 400%increasing trading 50%velocity 200%Velocity drivers 0% 0% ▶ Competition NASDAQ OMX Nordic Exchange Average of European Benchmark Exchanges NASDAQ OMX US ▶ Lower exchange fees Note: Ave Eurpoe includes LSE,DB,NYSE Euronext and NOMX Nordic. Source: WFE monthly statistics (Total value of share ▶ Lower clearing fees trading in domestic companies/domestic market cap.) through CCP and coming interoperability NASDAQ OMX Nordic defines EBBO prices approx 85-90 pct of the time (July 23– between multiple August 24, 2012) OMXH25 EBBO OMXH25 EBBO CCP’s on NASDAQ 100 OMX Nordic market alone 22 NOMX Chi-X 20 Bats 90 ▶ NASDAQ OMX Turq 18 Burg Liquidity Provider 80 16 Time alone at EBBO in % program 14 Time at EBBO in % 70 12 ▶ Latency, capacity & 60 10 NOMX Co-Lo services Chi-X 8 50 Bats Turq Many new members 6 ▶ Burg 40 4 ▶ Very strong European 2 30 Best Bid and Offer 0 20 jul 23 jul 30 aug 06 aug 13 aug 20 NASDAQ OMX 13 Date jul 23 jul 30 aug 06 aug 13 aug 20
  • KAUPANKÄYNTI NOKIAN OSAKKEELLATAMMIKUU 2001 – JOULUKUU 2012 Market share in orderbook only 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 OMX Helsinki 39% New York Arca 8% NASDAQ iM 5% New York 6% Germany Xetra 7% CHI - X 10% OMX Stockholm 14% Turquoise 3% BATS US 6% BATS EU 2% 1 4
  • KAUPANKÄYNTI NOKIAN OSAKKEELLAJOULUKUU 2012 Market share in Nokia orderbook only BATS EU 2% Turquoise 3% BATS US 6% OMX Stockholm 14% OMX Helsinki 39% CHI - X 10% Germany Xetra 7% New York Arca New York 6% 8% NASDAQ iM 5%
  • KAUPANKÄYNTI NOKIAN OSAKKEELLAJOULUKUU 2012 Market share in Nokia including trade reporting BOAT 19% OMX Helsinki 23% New York Arca 5% FINRA 21% NASDAQ iM 3% New York 4% BATS US Germany Xetra 4% CHI - X 6% 4% OMX Stockholm 8% BATS EU 1% Turquoise 2% 1 6
  • NASDAQ OMX HelsinkiOSAKEVAIHTO 1997 – 2012 400 350 300 EUR Billions 250 200 150 100 50 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Helsinki Nokia© Copyright 2008, The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
  • Share of equity market turnover based on type of members tradingCONTINUED 70,00%EFFORT TO Global Investment Banks Internet Brokers 60,00%GROW OUR Nordic Banks Nordic BrokersNORDIC MARKET 50,00% The remote members trading activity have continuously increased the 40,00% Nordic market the last couple of years 30,00%Continued growth in tradingof Nordic listed instruments 20,00%is a consequence of the 10,00%ongoing effort to create thebest trading system and 0,00%best infrastructure.Still, great potential for newtrading flows fromalgorithmic strategies and Share of turnover coming from Algo & HFT trading on NASDAQ OMX NordicHFT firms. 60,00% Nordic Share of Algo & HFT trading (Turnover)NASDAQ OMX Nordic last 50,00% Nordic HFT trading (Turnover)year attracted 20 newinternational cash equity 40,00%members and the pipeline 30,00%for 2012 is strong 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 18
  • TRENDINOMAISESTI ALENEVAT SPREADIT Suhteelliset spreadit NASDAQ OMX NORDICKeskusvastapuoliselvitys(CCP), uusikaupankäyntijärjestelmä(INET), uudenlaisetosapuolet ja alemmattikkivälit ovatedesauttaneet alempienspreadien kehitykseen. 19
  • ALGORITMINEN KAUPANKÄYNTIPOHJOISMAISSA
  • KAUPANKÄYNTI TÄNÄÄN Kaupankäynti robot trading,Terms likecomputer trading,Algo and HFT areused at random. AlgoritminenThe term Algo trading can kaupankäyntibe segmented intotraditional automated tradingand High Frequency Trading(HFT, ”korkean intensiteetinkaupankäynti”) HFT 21
  • HFT:N ELI KORKEAN INTENSITEETIN KAUPANKÄYNNIN YLEISPIIRTEITÄ Arbitrage No trading – HFT is the Proprietary electronic equivalent trading overnight to day trading positionsLack of standardizedinternational definitionStill, we see commoncharacteristics Computerized high- HFT is conducted speed AUTD- accounts with both by micro OTR over 10 specialist Based on Nordic list firms and by seconds share trading traditional trades members 22
  • LATENCYThere is long trend fromNathan Rothschild’s pigeons tothe programmed computers wewitness today 23
  • ALGO, ROUTING AND TRADITIONAL BROKER ID MARKET SHARESTAMMIKUU 2006 - JOULUKUU 2012 (SPONSORED ACCESS INCLUDED IN ALGO) NASDAQ OMX Tukholma NASDAQ OMX Kööpenhamina 70,00% 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 60,00% 50,00% 50,00% 40,00% 40,00% 30,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 20,00% 0,00% 10,00% 2007-01 2007-05 2007-09 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 0,00% 2007-01 2007-05 2007-09 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 Algo Personal Routing NASDAQ OMX Helsinki Algo Personal Routing 80,00% 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 2007-01 2007-05 2007-09 2008-01 2008-05 2008-09 2009-01 2009-05 2009-09 2010-01 2010-05 2010-09 2011-01 2011-05 2011-09 2012-01 2012-05 2012-09 NASDAQ OMX 24 Algo Personal Routing
  • HFT-KAUPANKÄYNTI NASDAQ OMX NORDIC -PÖRSSEISSÄ Kööpenhamina 11 - 13 % 35,00%There is no unified way of measuring HFT. We will not provid an exact 30,00%number rather a interval. 25,00%Proxy is based on AUTD with order to trade ratio over 8. 20,00%We are providing an interval of +-10% this approximation. 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% 2010-03 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2010-11 2011-01 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-09 2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-07 2012-09 2012-1135,00% Tukholma 20 - 25 % Helsinki 19 – 23 % 35,00%30,00% 30,00%25,00% 25,00%20,00% 20,00%15,00% 15,00%10,00% 10,00%5,00% 5,00%0,00% 0,00% 2010-03 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2010-11 2011-01 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-09 2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-07 2012-09 2012-11 2010-03 2010-05 2010-07 2010-09 2010-11 2011-01 2011-03 2011-05 2011-07 2011-09 2011-11 2012-01 2012-03 2012-05 2012-07 2012-09 2012-11 25
  • HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING – TAKE AWAY Strategiat Passive market making (gaining the spread) Arbitrage trading (across venues) Statistical arbitrage (across related instruments) and pattern recognition Erityispiirteet Low latency/ High speed Very short time frames High order rates Flat position overnight 26
  • MITÄ TUTKIJAT SANOVAT? “Dampens “No effect on volatility” “Causes volatility” • Credit Suisse (2010) volatility” • CME Group (2010) • Chaboud, Chiquoine, Hjalmarsson• Zhang 2010 and Vega (2009) • Brogaard (2010) • Frino, Lepone, Mistry (2010) • Castura, Litzenberger, Gorelick, Dwivedi (2009) • Hendershott and Riordan (2009) • Hasbrouck and Saar (2010) • UK Treasury Foresight Committee (2011) • Hagströmer and Norden (2012) 27
  • KAUPANKÄYNNIT TRENDIT - YHTEENVETO Avoin kilpailu osakekaupankäynnissä on johtanut seuraaviin ilmiöihin • Kaupankäynnin pirstaloituminen monelle kauppapaikalle EU-alueella • Kaupankäynnin teknistyminen (algo ja HFT – teknologiat) • Tarve kehittää muita kaupankäynnin muotoja (Dark pool, OTC / BCN) • Helsingin pörssissä edelleen selvästi paras hintakuva ja merkittävästi enemmän likviditeettiä kuin muilla kauppapaikoilla, markkinaosuus 70% Vaikutukset sijoittajille • Tehostunut hinnanmuodostus • Pirstaloituneesta likviditeetistä hyvä olla tietoinen • Sijoittajilla haasteita nähdä/löytää osakevaihdon kokonaistieto 28
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