Carnegie-ilta 5.11.2013

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Carnegie-ilta 5.11.2013

Carnegie-ilta 5.11.2013

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  • 1. CARNEGIE FONDER PRESENTATION Nordnet - November 2013 Carnegie Fonder AB
  • 2. WHO WE ARE Niklas Edman Portfolio Manager Fixed Income. Niklas has worked in the financial industry since 2007, with corporate finance at Carnegie Investment Bank and as investment manager at Armada Mezzanine Capital. Mikael Engvall Institutional sales with Emerging Market Focus. Mikael has covered the Russian Market since 1996, initially with HQ Bank and since 2010 with Carnegie Investment Bank. Carnegie Fonder AB 2
  • 3. CARNEGIE FONDER IN SUMMARY  Founded 1988  EUR 4.5 billion in AuM  Focus on Nordic Fixed Income and Nordic Equities and Emerging Markets  Institutional clients, insurance companies and distributors, private clients  Over 300,000 end clients Carnegie Fonder AB 3
  • 4. INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY  Active management without restrictions with regard to company or sector with the aim of generating a positive and stable return  Concentrated portfolios – about 30 holdings of shares with good liquidity  Value management of assets considered to be undervalued based fundamental analysis  Through our investment philosophy, our aim is to generate returns with lower overall risk than our competitors Carnegie Fonder AB 4
  • 5. FUNDS ON EMERGING MARKETS  Carnegie Emerging Markets  Carnegie Rysslandsfond 1996 1997  Carnegie Kinafond  Carnegie Indienfond 2004 2004  Carnegie Afrikafond 2006 __________________________________  About EUR 1.0 billion in emerging markets funds Carnegie Fonder AB 5
  • 6. CARNEGIE RYSSLANDSFOND November 2013 Carnegie Fonder AB
  • 7. RUSSIAN MARKET  The world sixth largest economy  The world largest oil- and gasproducer  The world fourth largest currency reserves  Russian equity market – attractive valuations – PE ratio around 5 – 50% discount to other emerging markets  Discount for a reason  Positive signals – Increased tension between Putin and Medvedev – Somewhat softer political approach – Increased tension between Russia and USA – Weaker Corporate Governance (TNK BP/ Rosneft) – Navalny released from prison. Participated in Moscow Mayor-elections. – Global concerns towards Russia – Support for Russian Syria-solution – Dependent on foreign flows, lack of Russian institutions – Suggestion for increased dividends from Statecontrolled companies. 35% of profit according to IFRS – Flows largely in the form of ETFs – The stock market is still dependent on oil prices Carnegie Fonder AB – Possible easy on monetary-policy can give some support to Russian economy 7
  • 8. FUND MANAGERS, RUSSIA Fredrik Colliander – Responsible manager Born 1963. Graduate Business Administrator. Worked in Moscow for one of the major Swedish banks, responsible for market monitoring of Eastern Europe. 1997-2000 manager of the bank's Eastern Europe fund. Employed since August 2000. Won the Dagens Industri and Morningstar Star Manager of the Year 2009 award in the Russia funds category. Fredrik is one of the foremost Russia managers in the world, rated by Citywire. Jan-Olov Olsson Born in 1959. Master of Science in Business and Economics from the Stockholm School of Economics. Began working with portfolio management in 1996 as asset manager of Handelsbanken’s Östeuropafond. From the end of 1997 to 2000, Jan Olov was asset manager of the HQ Rysslandsfond and, thereafter, asset manager of Alfred Berg’s Russian mutual funds until 2008. Employed by Carnegie Fonder in 2011. Karin Fries Born 1974. BA Economics, University of South Carolina, USA. Master of Economics, Lund University, CeFA/AFA 2008. Employed since 2004. Carnegie Fonder AB 8
  • 9. CARNEGIE RYSSLANDSFOND, CHARACTERISTICS  Continuity in asset management, Fredrik Colliander has managed the fund for 13 years  Focused fund with active selection of companies  The fund is one of the best performing Russia funds over time  Lover volatility compared to similar funds  Good liquidity in invested portfolio  5 star rating by Morningstar Number of positions as of 31 December 2012; Carnegie 33 JP Morgan 42* Alfred Berg 51 Robur 61 East Capital 74 * Number of positions as of 31 January 2013 Carnegie Fonder AB 9
  • 10. LARGEST HOLDINGS Fund’s ten largest sectors Fund’s ten largest holdings 2013-09-30 2013-09-30 1. Gazprom ADS 9,2 % 1. Energy 48,1 % 2. Novatek GDR 9,1 % 2. Finance & real estate 14,7 % 3. Sberbank 9,0 % 3. Grocery 9,3 % 4. Surgutneftegaz Pref 8,1 % 4. Commodities 8,0 % 5. Mobile Telesystem ADS 4,6% 5. Telecom operators 6,0 % 6. Transneft Pref 4,5 % 6. Cash and equivalents 5,4 % 7. Magnit 4,4 % 7. Information technology 4,3 % 8. Lukoil 4,3 % 8. Health Care 1,8 % 9. Norilsk Mining 3,8 % 9. Power supply 1,0 % 3,4 % 10. Capital goods & services 10. Mail Group Carnegie Fonder AB 0,8 % 10
  • 11. PERFORMANCE Fund RTS Index 1 Year 2,0% -5,6% 5 Years 33,9% 8,1% 10 years 179,7% 108,5% 2013-09-30 Carnegie Fonder AB 11
  • 12. CARNEGIE CORPORATE BOND Carnegie Fonder AB
  • 13. PORTFOLIO MANAGERS CREDITS AND FIXED INCOME Stefan Ericson Niklas Edman  Employed at Carnegie Fonder since 2011  Employed at Carnegie Fonder since 2013  Awarded ”Portfolio manager of the year – corporate bonds” by Morningstar & Di  Armada Mezzanine Capital 2010-2013  Investor – Tresuary 2009-2011  SEB (Stockholm) – 2007-2009  SEB (New York) – 1997 -2007  MBA + Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA Carnegie Fonder AB  Carnegie Investment Bank (M&A) 2007-2010  MSc in Business Administration, Stockholm School of Economics
  • 14. BROAD MANDATE CREATES OPPORTUNITIES Kreditbetyg / Rating Carnegie Corporate bond S&P AAA AA+ AA AAA+ A ABBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B BCCC+ CCC CCCD Moody's Aaa Aa1 Aa2 Aa3 A1 A2 A3 Baa1 Baa2 Baa3 Ba1 Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa Ca C Kommentar Investment grade Investment grade/High grade Investment grade/High grade Investment grade/High grade Investment grade/upper medium grade Investment grade/upper medium grade Investment grade/upper medium grade Investment grade/medium grade Investment grade/medium grade Investment grade/medium grade High yield/speculative grade High yield/speculative grade High yield/speculative grade High yield High yield High yield High yield High yield High yield Inte fullgjort sina betalningar Investment Grade-fonder High Yield-fonder  We aim to have a well diversified portfolio  Sweet spot BB- to BBB  We do not invest in the most risky part of the HY spectrum Carnegie Fonder AB 06/11/2013 14
  • 15.  Meet the company/management/owners – Management track record, How has the owners acted previously in this and/or other companies?  Industry analysis Required return INVESTMENT PROCESS Ordinary equity Subordinated – Outlook, Cyclicality, Industry trends Subordinated  Where is the bond in the capital structure Unsecured bond – Covenants, how much other debt etc.  Other sources of information Secured bond Risk (expected) – Company analysis, what do the stack market think about the company  Potential rating  Liquidity Price Carnegie Fonder AB 06/11/2013 15
  • 16. INVESTMENTS  Neste Oil (Finland) – Refining and marketing company, focusing on premium-quality, lower-emission traffic fuels – Owned by the finish state 50,1% – Strong market position in core markets including Finland and the Baltics – Financial profile expected to strengthen going forward as heaviest investment phase into renewable fuel production completed  Bergvik skog (Sweden) – One of the largest forest owner in Sweden (c. 8,4%) – Long term supply contract with Stora Enso and Billerudkorsnäs (both shareholders) – Market value of the forest holdings substantially above total debt  Teekay LNG (Norway) – Provider of LNG, LPG and crude oil marine transportation (74 vessels) – Long-term fixed rate contracts, avg ~12 yrs, the bond is 5 yrs – High leverage (due to high initial capex) reflected in the price  Global Connect (Denmark) – Provider of tele and data communication services in Denmark and northern Germany (incl. fiber network) – Long term contracts with a diversified customer base. – Growth financing, due to roll-out of fiber network – Reasonable leverage and strong security package Carnegie Fonder AB 06/11/2013 06/11/2013 16
  • 17. PORTFOLIO 2013-10-31 8% Sweden 4% Sweden 16% 43% Norway Finland BERGVIK SKOG AB ICA GRUPPEN AB TELE2 AB INVESTOR AB BRAVIDA HOLDING AB 2,7% 2,6% 2,5% 2,3% 2,4% Denmark Other 30% "Other" includes Black Earth Farming, Arion Bank and cash held at SEB Norway Share AKER ASA DOF SUBSEA ASA DET NORSKE OLJESELSKAP TEEKAY LNG PARTNERS COLOR GROUP ASA 2,5% 2,2% 2,1% 1,8% 1,6% Finland NESTE OIL OYJ CITYCON OYJ STORA ENSO OYJ UPM-KYMMENE CORP METSALIITTO OSUUSKUNTA Denmark DANSKE BANK A/S AP MOLLER-MAERSK A/S VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS A/S JYSKE BANK A/S GLOBAL CONNECT A/S Rating overview Share Share 2,6% 2,0% 1,7% 1,6% 1,4% Share 4,5% 1,2% 1,0% 0,7% 0,7% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 AAA AA+ AA AAA+ A A- Share 16,3% 0,0% 0,0% 2,3% 2,7% 0,0% 1,2% 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 BBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B 4,8% 8,4% 9,8% 14,7% 7,7% 10,1% 7,7% 8,2% 16 12 BOR Total     Annual fee: Front load Back load Performance fee Carnegie Fonder AB 0,95 % 0% 0% None Maturity interval <1 yr 1-3 yrs 3-5 yrs Other Total Cash held at SEB 45% 2,4% 3,7% 100,0% Average rating Other data Current yield ex fees Duration (yrs) Credit duration (yrs) AuM (SEK mio) Comment 55% 9,6 4,6% 1,4 4,2 8 849 Share 4% 10% 37% 49% 100%
  • 18. PERFORMANCE (SEK CLASS) Year Swe Gov Bond 2013 4,60% -2,48% 2012 11,63% 1,57% 2011 3,24% 13,27% 2010 7,63% 1,97% 2009 Carnegie Fonder AB Fund 7,07% 3,05% 06/11/2013 18
  • 19. WHY INVEST IN CARNEGIE CORPORATE BONDS?  Opportunity to receive higher returns than with traditional fixed income products  Diversify the portfolio with a new asset class  Corporate bonds are still priced low relative to government bonds  Difficult to replicate  Invest in the largest credit fund with Nordic exposure  A growing interest from Nordic companies seeking financing through corporate bonds, presents opportunities for the fund  All bonds in foreign currency are hedged to SEK /EUR /NOK (dependent on asset class)  5-star overall rating from Morningstar ”Best Cautiously Managed Fund” - MoneyMate Fund Award 2013 Carnegie Fonder AB 06/11/2013 19
  • 20. Disclaimer   The presentation and its content and material does not have regard to any specific investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of any specific person who may access this presentation. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this presentation and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should also understand that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.  Carnegie Fonder AB All material in this presentation is provided for general guidance and informational purposes only and relates to the law of Sweden and/or European law as applicable. The material is under no circumstances to be used or considered as financial advice or an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. The material is obtained from various sources; while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the material is true and not misleading, Carnegie does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The Carnegie Group of Companies ("Carnegie"), its partners, staff and associated companies exclude all and accept no liability whatsoever (to the extent permitted by applicable law) for any direct or consequential losses, costs, claims, damages, expenses or proceedings of whatever nature incurred or suffered by you arising directly or indirectly in connection with the use of this presentation and its content and material, or due to any unavailability of part or all of presentation or any material or related services. Readers of this presentation who are investors in the U.S. should be aware that investing in non-U.S. securities entails certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the current informational reporting and audit standards of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. 06/11/2013 20