Nordnet-koulun webinaari 20.11.2013: Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia

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Nordnet-koulun webinaari 20.11.2013: Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia

Nordnet-koulun webinaari 20.11.2013: Tekninen osakeanalyysi ja kaupankäyntistrategia

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  • 1. Investtech AS SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS! • Norwegian company established 1997 • Based on scientific research • Solid documented results • Independent and objective analyses • Subscriptions: INVESTOR ESPEN GRØNSTAD CEO – I NVESTTECH WWW.INVESTTEH.COM Copyright © 2013-11-20 Market psychology Stock analysis • Fundamental analyis: Security! Greed Greed Denial Optimism • Technical analysis: Timing! Pessimism Skepticism Fear Depression Depression 3 2006 2007 2008 Technology Mindset “It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong” 5 - George Soros . 6 1
  • 2. Trends Mindset Neutral trends Falling trends Rising trends 7 8 Trends Signal from Trends ? Time horizon Short term Medium term Long term Chart 5 months 8 months 6 years Investment horizon 1-6 weeks 1-6 months 1-6 quarters 10 Signal from Trends Trends – help 20,0% Buy signal 12,3% Index 5,2% Sell signal Average price development five days before trend signal and one year after trend signal for Norwegian stocks in the period 1996-2009. 11 2
  • 3. Support and Resistance Support and Resistance Resistance Resistance Support Support Support and Resistance Formations Head and shoulders Double top/bottom 67% Rectangle Top formation Bottom formations OMX Stockholm 30 - 30 April 2009 Oslo Børs 14. January 2008 17 18 18 3
  • 4. Investtech – Research report Investtech – Research report 1,088 rectangles identified on the Oslo exchange 1996-2008. Average: 13.4 % height, 98 days length Results: The theory says that the price will reach the objective within L days. • How often does this happen? • Can this be used in a trading strategy? 19 Success pecentage after one formation length (1L)‫‏‬ Volume Formations • CONFIRMS OR WEAKENS TREND DIRECTION, BREAKS THROUGH SUPPORT/RESISTANCE, AND SIGNALS FROM FORMATIONS • INDICATES COMING TREND BREAKS/SIGNALS • TRUST • UNDERESTIMATED AS TECHNICAL INDICATOR 22 21 Volume Volume Price Supply Negative volume Positive volume Demand Volume 23 4
  • 5. Volume Technical analysis Positive trend Buy signal from formation Near support support Technical analysis Medium www.investtech.com 28 5
  • 6. Research report Solid excess return with the Daily Case 31 www.investtech.com 33 6