MULTI-AGENT SYSTEM MODELING FOR REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH   Noordini Binti Che’Man Urban Planning Group Supervisor :  H.J.P...
Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Goal and Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Research Framework </li></ul><ul><li>...
Introduction : Motivation <ul><li>Interest in modeling urban system increasing </li></ul><ul><li>Contribution of advance m...
Goal and Objectives <ul><li>To analyze the complexity of regional and urban growth system, identify and evaluate of the cu...
Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS  +  MAS MODELING
Understanding of urban and regional growth <ul><li>Urban growth = process of growth and decline of urban areas. </li></ul>...
Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS  +  MAS MODELING
Mechanism AGENT Time Firm Size Lifecycle
Economic growth and firm demography <ul><li>Economic growth = changes or increment in the level of production of goods and...
Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS  +  MAS MODELING
Definition <ul><li>Multi-agent system (MAS) </li></ul><ul><li>“ collection of interacting autonomous agent each with their...
Integration of MAS and GIS <ul><li>GIS + MAS = enhance capability of urban simulation technique </li></ul><ul><li>Makes av...
Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS  +  MAS MODELING
Modeling as tools to understand growth pattern  <ul><li>Modeling = help people communicate easier. </li></ul><ul><li>Model...
Related Research <ul><li>A Shell for Simulated Agent Systems (SESAM)  Schüle, M., Herrler, R., and Klügl, F. (2004). &quot...
METHODOLOGY
Study Area Klang Valley region
Mechanism
How? <ul><li>Prob (  ) = ƒ (firm character, locational character, accessibility, ……) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Content </li></...
Preparation of Data <ul><li>Data collection from targeted agency </li></ul><ul><li>GIS database design and development </l...
<ul><li>ArcGIS 9.x </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model builder </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geo-processing tools </li></ul></ul><ul>...
Expected Finding <ul><li>Create growth model with help of GIS tools - help urban development actors to understand and make...
Relevance of study <ul><li>Development of advanced modeling methods and techniques to analyze land use patterns and growth...
Progress <ul><li>Literature study </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding of urban and regional growth  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul...
Time-planning
Publication Plan <ul><li>Journal : </li></ul><ul><li>Science Direct </li></ul><ul><li>Environment and Planning  </li></ul>...
Conclusion <ul><li>Urban growth modeling - contribute a better knowledge  </li></ul><ul><li>GIS and MAS is a necessary too...
<ul><li>Q & A </li></ul>
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Noordini audit24112009

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Noordini audit24112009

  1. 1. MULTI-AGENT SYSTEM MODELING FOR REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH Noordini Binti Che’Man Urban Planning Group Supervisor : H.J.P. Timmermans
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><li>Goal and Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Research Framework </li></ul><ul><li>Preparation for the study </li></ul><ul><li>Study Area </li></ul><ul><li>Expected Finding </li></ul><ul><li>Relevance of study </li></ul><ul><li>Progress made in the first year </li></ul><ul><li>Updated time plan </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul>
  3. 3. Introduction : Motivation <ul><li>Interest in modeling urban system increasing </li></ul><ul><li>Contribution of advance modeling approach – new models to improve the understanding of urban development process </li></ul><ul><li>Current development in Malaysia- economic region </li></ul><ul><li>Integration of Multi-Agent System (MAS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) - Progress in modern GIS tools and technique </li></ul>
  4. 4. Goal and Objectives <ul><li>To analyze the complexity of regional and urban growth system, identify and evaluate of the current methods that available for modeling it. </li></ul><ul><li>To develop and demonstrate the model of regional and urban growth pattern. </li></ul><ul><li>To identify how economic factor can contribute growth using MAS modeling approach. </li></ul><ul><li>To study on firm demography in the area as one of the contribution to economic growth. </li></ul><ul><li>To study the application and integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) and multi-agent system (MAS) technologies. </li></ul>
  5. 5. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING
  6. 6. Understanding of urban and regional growth <ul><li>Urban growth = process of growth and decline of urban areas. </li></ul><ul><li>Urban Land use model </li></ul>Chronological Development of Urban Land Use models
  7. 7. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING
  8. 8. Mechanism AGENT Time Firm Size Lifecycle
  9. 9. Economic growth and firm demography <ul><li>Economic growth = changes or increment in the level of production of goods and services in the economy or a country over period of time. </li></ul><ul><li>Economic growth reflected urban growth. </li></ul><ul><li>Firm demography = interesting concept = lifecycle of a firm </li></ul><ul><li>Firm demography gain popularity –economic, regional science and transportation. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING
  11. 11. Definition <ul><li>Multi-agent system (MAS) </li></ul><ul><li>“ collection of interacting autonomous agent each with their own capabilities and goal” </li></ul><ul><li>Chen g, J. (2003). &quot;Modeling Spatial & Temporal Urban Growth.&quot;, International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, Enschede Netherlands. </li></ul><ul><li>Geographical Information System (GIS) </li></ul><ul><li>“ GIS is widely used to facilitate in analyzing, modeling, manipulating, representation and displaying geo-referenced data in order to solve complex problems which relate to planning and management of resources” </li></ul><ul><li>NCGIA (1990). &quot;NCGIA Core Curriculum in GIS.&quot; University of California, Santa Barbara. </li></ul>
  12. 12. Integration of MAS and GIS <ul><li>GIS + MAS = enhance capability of urban simulation technique </li></ul><ul><li>Makes available a considerable amount of data and information produced and used by users who commonly employ GIS. </li></ul><ul><li>Model builder to validate the dynamic models. </li></ul><ul><li>improves the results of decision process – cooperate between stakeholders and decision maker. </li></ul>
  13. 13. Research Framework Economic Growth Firm Demography Urban and Regional Growth Urban Planning in Malaysia GIS + MAS MODELING
  14. 14. Modeling as tools to understand growth pattern <ul><li>Modeling = help people communicate easier. </li></ul><ul><li>Models = aid in decision making </li></ul><ul><li>Model can mimic the complexity of urban growth system </li></ul>Ladder for modeling Agents Policies Behaviors Processes Patterns Driving Forces Agents Actions Dynamics Outcome
  15. 15. Related Research <ul><li>A Shell for Simulated Agent Systems (SESAM) Schüle, M., Herrler, R., and Klügl, F. (2004). &quot;Coupling GIS and Multi-agent Simulation - Towards Infrastructure for Realistic Simulation.&quot; Multiagent System Technologies: Second German Conference, MATES 2004, Erfurt, Germany, September 29-30, 2004. Proceedings , J.G.Carbonell, and J.Siekmann, eds., Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 228-242. </li></ul><ul><li>UrbanSim </li></ul><ul><li>Waddell, P., and Ulfarsson, G. F. (2004). &quot;Introduction to Urban Simulation: Design and Development of Operational Models.&quot; Handbook of Transport Geography and Spatial Systems , David A.Hensher, Kenneth J.Button, Kingsley E.Haynes, and Peter R.Stopher, eds. </li></ul><ul><li>Multi-Agent Simulator for Urban Segregation(MASUS) </li></ul><ul><li>Feitosa,F., Le, Q.B., and Vlek, P.L.G., (2009) Multi-Agent Simulator for Urban Segregation (MASUS) A tool to Explore Alternative for Promoting Inclusive Cities. 3rd ICA workshop on Geospatial Analysis and Modeling, University of Galve, August 6-7 2009. </li></ul>
  16. 16. METHODOLOGY
  17. 17. Study Area Klang Valley region
  18. 18. Mechanism
  19. 19. How? <ul><li>Prob ( ) = ƒ (firm character, locational character, accessibility, ……) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General condition </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic condition </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. Preparation of Data <ul><li>Data collection from targeted agency </li></ul><ul><li>GIS database design and development </li></ul>Data Type Availability Sources Land use (Year – 1981,1998,1999,2002) Shapefile (GIS) √ Klang Valley Federal Territory (KVFT) Administrative Shapefile (GIS) √ KVFT Physical Shapefile (GIS) √ KVFT Transportation Shapefile (GIS) √ KVFT Building Shapefile (GIS) √ KVFT Demographic Excel Worksheet/Report √ KVFT/Statistic Department Firm – Company Name, Address, Type of company, Date of start and end. Excel worksheet √ Company Commission of Malaysia (CCM) Firm - Size of company, Number of employee, Branches X
  21. 21. <ul><li>ArcGIS 9.x </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model builder </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geo-processing tools </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Agent Analyst </li></ul><ul><ul><li>developed by Argonne National Laboratory </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>provides access to model building user interface through ArcGIS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>FREE and open source </li></ul></ul><ul><li>VBA or C++ or Java </li></ul>Software
  22. 22. Expected Finding <ul><li>Create growth model with help of GIS tools - help urban development actors to understand and make a clear decision. </li></ul><ul><li>Create alternative plan for regional development. </li></ul><ul><li>The model as foundation to understand the relationship between economic growth and dynamic land use patterns in the region. </li></ul>
  23. 23. Relevance of study <ul><li>Development of advanced modeling methods and techniques to analyze land use patterns and growth </li></ul><ul><li>Implication for local planning </li></ul><ul><li>GIS and MAS as a planning tool </li></ul><ul><li>Contribute knowledge and findings from several research areas </li></ul>
  24. 24. Progress <ul><li>Literature study </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understanding of urban and regional growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic growth and Firm demography </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-agent system approach </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GIS Technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integration of MAS and GIS </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Modeling as tools to understand growth patterns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Related Research </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conference paper preparation </li></ul><ul><li>Identify data requirement </li></ul><ul><li>GIS database design - ongoing </li></ul>
  25. 25. Time-planning
  26. 26. Publication Plan <ul><li>Journal : </li></ul><ul><li>Science Direct </li></ul><ul><li>Environment and Planning </li></ul><ul><li>International Journal of Geographical Information Science </li></ul><ul><li>Journal of Geographical Systems </li></ul><ul><li>International Journal of Urban and Regional Research </li></ul><ul><li>Proceedings of International conferences organized by such societies as: </li></ul><ul><li>GIS Development </li></ul><ul><li>Geographic Information Science of International Geographical Union (IGU) </li></ul><ul><li>Modeling Geographical Systems of IGU </li></ul><ul><li>Regional Studies Association </li></ul>
  27. 27. Conclusion <ul><li>Urban growth modeling - contribute a better knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>GIS and MAS is a necessary tool in analyzing spatial pattern </li></ul><ul><li>Improve decision making process </li></ul>
  28. 28. <ul><li>Q & A </li></ul>

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