SE4ALL
Global Tracking Framework
Preview of Findings
SE4ALL Executive Committee
March 11th 2013
INTRODUCTION

2
SE4ALL Objectives for 2030
• Energy access
– Ensure universal access to modern energy services

• Renewable energy
– Doubl...
A phased and differentiated approach
Immediate

Medium term

Global
tracking

Which indicator is ready to go
for global tr...
Available data allows coverage of over 180 countries
Data Sources

Country Coverage
(% global popn.)

Electrification

Glo...
ENERGY ACCESS

6
Methodological challenges immediate resolution
Measurement of Access
•Household survey are the most common source of infor...
Access rate to modern energy rose driven by increase in rural
access rate and growth in South Asia and East Asia regions
G...
Most of the absolute growth took place in urban areas and in
South Asia, East Asia, and South East Asia regions
Global
Rur...
Still, 1.2 billion people live without electricity and
2.8 billion cook with solid fuels
Global

Electricity
Access

Non-s...
More than three quarters of global access deficit
concentrated in some 20 high impact countries
Top 20 access deficit coun...
Fastest moving countries have succeeded in providing
access to 3-4% of their populations annually
Annual incremental acces...
Methodological challenges in medium term

Measuring
Household access
to electricity

•Access to Electricity Supply defined...
Multi-tier access index can be approximated using data on
average residential electricity consumption
Tier-0
-

Tier-1
Rad...
RENEWABLE ENERGY

15
Methodological Challenges
Challenge

Issues

Proposed Approach

Energy
Accounting
Method

Primary energy accounting under-...
Traditional biomass accounts for over half of total
renewable energy used mainly for heating and cooking
Global Share of R...
Share of renewables in global energy mix hardly increased
since 1990 (despite absolute growth)
Renewable Energy Consumptio...
Non-conventional renewables experienced double digit
growth reflecting surge in policy incentives and finance
Compound Ann...
Less developed regions show higher (though declining)
renewable energy shares – and vice versa

Regional and Country Share...
Two thirds of expansion of modern renewable energy
during last 20 years concentrated in just five countries
Top 20 Countri...
Countries most heavily dependent on renewable energy
have reached penetration levels of around one third

RE excluding tra...
ENERGY EFFICIENCY

23
Methodological challenges
Challenge

Proposed Approach

Multi-dimensionality

Track global performance
onenergyintensityco...
Last decade shows slowing rates of improvement
in energy intensity (higher when adjusted)
CAGR Energy Intensity (PPP)
1990...
Service sector contributed the most to energy savings
during last 20 years
Energy Intensity Trends by Sector

Share of Cum...
East Asia accounted for the lion’s share of energy
saved, even as Middle Eastern energy intensity
deteriorated
Share of Cu...
Energy consumption patterns differ by income group
Energy Consumption/GDP (PPP)

HICs
UMICs
LMICs
LICs

Energy
Consumption...
Top 20 (2) consumers accounting for 80% (40%) of
global energy demand
Largest Primary Energy Consumers, 2010 (EJ)
China
US...
Fast moving countries typically register improvements
in the range of 4-8% annually
CAGR Energy Intensity, 1990-2010
Bosni...
Structural and activity effects partially mask extent of
energy efficiency efforts among top 20 energy consumers
3%

CAGR ...
China stands out in terms of greatest improvement
seen among top energy consuming nations
Energy Intensity in 1990

Energy...
Through energy intensity improvements China saved
about as much energy as it consumed over last 20 years
Largest Energy Co...
SCALE OF CHALLENGE

34
SE4ALL starting point in perspective
Percentages

Universal access to
modern energy
Electrification Cooking

Renewable
Rat...
Large absolute achievements of last 20 years diluted by
surging population and energy demand
Absolute achievements

Relati...
Projections from IEA and IIASA illustrate scale of
challenge entailed by SE4ALL objectives
Percentage in 2030

IEA SCENARI...
NEXT STEPS

38
Launch and dissemination calendar
• Consultation
– First round methodological consultation, November 2012
– Second round f...
Plans for future global tracking
• Details are still being discussed and funding unclear

• Individual partners commit to ...
Global energy data improvement agenda
Recommended targeting of effort over next five years
Energy
access

a) Work to impro...
ANNEX

42
Definition of renewable energy
Energy from natural sources that are replenished at a faster rate
than they are consumed, i...
Estimation model
Mixed model to estimate values for countries with at least one data
point: Mixed model includes fixed eff...
Candidate Multi-tier frameworks
Measuring Household access to electricity

Measuring access to modern cooking solutions

S...
Tracking Access to Energy
Opt-in countries: The further development of the multi-tier metric can be substantially
strength...
Achieving objectives calls for substantial financing
as well as major policy commitments
Average
annual
US$ billion
2010-2...
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  • Non solid-fuels include (i) liquid fuels (e.g., kerosene, ethanol or other biofuels), (ii) gaseous fuels (e.g. natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), biogas), and (iii) electricity. Solid fuels include both (i) traditional biomass (e.g. wood, coal, charcoal, agricultural residues, forestry residues, dung, etc), and (ii) processed biomass (e.g. pellets, briquettes, etc.).Electrified population rose by 200 million over population and non-solid fuel using population just kept pace with population.Global electrification rate increased from 74 to 83 percent and access to non-solid fuels rose from 47 to 59 percent, driven largely by increase in rural access rateMost dramatic improvement was in East Asia and South Asia regions.
  • Population with access to electricity rose more than twice in urban areasPopulation with access to non-solid fuels rose about four times in urban areasSouth Asia and East Asia have registered dramatic growth in population with access to modern energy services
  • Access to energy should be measured as a continuum of improvement Addresses deficiencies in current definition such as quality of services, affordability, informalityHousehold surveys needs to be expanded to capture more detailed information and piloting of questionnaires and consensus building
  • Hydro contributes to over 80% of RE electricity production
  • RE consumption grew from 40 EJ in 1990 to 59 EJ in 2010, this increase is equivalent to what India and Malaysia combined consumed in 2010Today’s RE consumption is equivalent to total final energy consumption of a country like the US or ChinaMost of the incremental increase in consumption came from: tradbiomass –6.6 EJ, Modern – 3.8 Ej, hydro 3.7 EJ, Biofules – 2.2 Ej, wind, solar and others – 2.77 EJ (total is 19EJ)TFEC grew at 1.5%, RE grew at 2.0 %
  • Regional Definitions:NAm - Northern AmericaEU - EuropeEE - Eastern EuropeCCA - Caucasian and Central AsiaWA - Western Asia (Middle East)EA - Eastern AsiaSEA - South Eastern AsiaSA - Southern AsiaOceania - OceaniaLAC - Latin America and CaribbeanNAf - Northern AfricaSSA - Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Low and lower middle income countries show uniformly levels of energy consumption per capita that are uniformly well below the global average. However, they vary hugely in energy intensity spanning the full range from the lowest to highest energy intensity ranges observed globally High income countries, on the other hand, show uniformly low levels of energy intensity, but vary hugely in their energy consumption per capitaThe upper middle income countries, by contrast, tend to present either both high energy intensity and consumption per capita as in Iran and a number of CIS countries, or both low energy intensity and consumption per capita, as in Turkey and a number of Latin American countries.
  • Ukraine is the only country that appears on both lists
  • The first chart plots the compound annual growth rate of energy intensity during the period 1990-2010 against initial energy intensity in 1990, and then for comparison purposes against final energy intensity in 2010. The anticipated negative relationship between the starting point and the annual rate of change is clearly evident in the chart. The country that most clearly stands out is China that started in 1990 with one of the highest levels of energy intensity among the top 20 energy consumers, and despite the huge expansion in its industrial sector that took place over the same period, experienced the steepest decline in energy intensity. Indeed, by 2010, China had undergone a major reduction in energy intensity reaching a level of energy comparable to that of other large middle income emerging economies.
  • It should be reminded however that China’s energy intensity went down from 30.5 in 1990 to 11.7 in 2010, while US’s intensity went down from 10.0 to 7.1 (MJ/$2005) and Europe’s from 6.5 to 5.0 (and Japan from 5.6 to 5.3) So China started from really high levels and still have not reached the best existing practices (Japan, UK, Germany, ect).
  • The primary source of data that have been used to develop the model includes household survey (DHS, LSMS, MICS and WHS), national censuses and other nationally developed and implemented surveys, covering years 1990-2010. A total of 212 countries have been grouped in 10 regions following the UN regional classification. Among them, 40 countries do not have any data point in the selected time period.  A mixed model has been preferred to estimate values for countries with at least one data point. Firstly, we used a natural cubic spline transformation cantered in 2000, the median date of the surveys data collected, and we specified 5 knots over the entire time period. Therefore, data has been converted in logit function as the outcome variable of interest is a percentage of people with access over total population.  The mixed model includes fixed effects for the time variable and the regional aggregation and it defines hierarchical random effects by regions and country and for time at country level. The covariance model was chosen to be unstructured.  Mixed models contain both fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects are analogous to standard regression coefficients and are estimated directly. The random effects are summarized according to their estimated variances and covariances. A fitted option has been used to predict the fixed portion plus contributions based on predicted random effects in countries with at least one data point. Values in countries without any data point are estimated by using the linear predictor for the fixed portion of the model based on the regional average value.
  • SE4All excom global tracking preview

    1. 1. SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework Preview of Findings SE4ALL Executive Committee March 11th 2013
    2. 2. INTRODUCTION 2
    3. 3. SE4ALL Objectives for 2030 • Energy access – Ensure universal access to modern energy services • Renewable energy – Double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix • Energy efficiency – Double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency 3
    4. 4. A phased and differentiated approach Immediate Medium term Global tracking Which indicator is ready to go for global tracking with all data needs (past, present, and future) already fully met? Which indicator is highly desirable for global tracking, but would require a feasible incremental investment in global energy data systems over the next five years? Country level tracking Na. Which indicator is ideal for tracking, and although too ambitious for global tracking, could be very suitable for country level tracking under SE4ALL? 4
    5. 5. Available data allows coverage of over 180 countries Data Sources Country Coverage (% global popn.) Electrification Global omnibus and national household surveys plus some censuses 170 (97%) Cooking Household surveys Global omnibus and national household surveys plus some censuses 128 (80%) Renewable Energy IEA (plus UN) for Energy Balances REN 21, IRENA, BNEF for complementary indicators 181 (98%) Energy Efficiency IEA (plus UN) for Energy Balances WDI for GDP and sectoral value added 181 (98%) 5
    6. 6. ENERGY ACCESS 6
    7. 7. Methodological challenges immediate resolution Measurement of Access •Household survey are the most common source of information on primary cooking fuel and electricity connections • Surveys are carried out every 3-4 years • A modeling approach has been adopted to allow data estimation for all countries annually Definition of Access • For electricity, availability of an electricity connection at home or use of electricity as a primary energy for lighting is considered access • For cooking, primary use of various non-solid fuels is considered as access Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter 7
    8. 8. Access rate to modern energy rose driven by increase in rural access rate and growth in South Asia and East Asia regions Global Regional 100 Urban 90 Total 70 Rural 60 50 40 30 Access rate (% ) Electricity Access Access rate (% ) 80 20 10 0 2000 CCA DEV EA LAC NA Oceania SA SEA SSA WA 1990 2010 2000 2010 WORLD 100 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Urban Total Rural CCA 90 DE V 80 Access rate (%) Non-solid fuel Access Access rate (%) 1990 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 E A 70 LAC 60 NA 50 Oceania 40 SA 30 SE A 20 SSA 10 WA 0 1990 2000 2010 1990 Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter 2000 2010 WOR LD 8
    9. 9. Most of the absolute growth took place in urban areas and in South Asia, East Asia, and South East Asia regions Global Rural 1772 Urban Electricity Access 596 2122 Total SA EA Population with access in 1990 DEV SSA Incremental access in 1990-2010 SEA Population without access in 2010 LAC WA NA 1809 1151 CCA Oceania 969 1220 200 3919 0 2000 Regional 4000 6000 Population with access in 1990 Incremental access in 1990-2010 Population without access in 2010 0 8000 500 Population (million) Rural Non-solid fuel Access 776 382 Urban 1732 Total 2179 1215 2503 0 568 1573 2000 SA EA Population with access in 1990 DEV SSA Incremental access in 1990-2010 SEA Population without access in 2010 LAC WA NA 2777 CCA Oceania 4000 1000 1500 2000 Population (Million) 6000 8000 Population with access in 1990 Incremental access in 1990-2010 Population without access in 2010 0 500 Population (million) Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter 1000 1500 2000 Population (Million) 9
    10. 10. Still, 1.2 billion people live without electricity and 2.8 billion cook with solid fuels Global Electricity Access Non-solid fuel Access Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter 10
    11. 11. More than three quarters of global access deficit concentrated in some 20 high impact countries Top 20 access deficit countries Electricity Access India Nigeria E thiopia Bangladesh Congo, DR Tanzania Kenya Sudan Uganda Myanmar Mozambique Korea, DR Afghanistan Madagascar Philippines Burkina Faso Yemen Niger Malawi Angola Top 20 lowest access rate countries 330.4 79.5 65.4 62.3 54.0 38.6 31.4 30.9 29.7 24.1 20.0 17.7 17.6 17.0 15.7 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.6 11.6 902 Million People without access Population (million) Non-solid fuel Access India China Bangladesh Indonesia Nigeria Pakistan E thiopia Congo, DR Vietnam Philippines Myanmar Tanzania Sudan Kenya Uganda Afghanistan Nepal Mozambique Korea, DR Ghana 705.0 612.8 134.9 131.2 117.8 110.8 81.1 61.3 49.4 46.2 44.0 42.3 34.6 32.6 32.2 26.7 24.6 22.2 22.2 20.4 2,352 Million People without access Population (million) Kenya E thiopia Mauritania Congo, DR Madagascar Zambia Lesotho Mozambique Tanzania CAR Burkina Faso Sierra Leone Uganda Niger R wanda Malawi Burundi Chad Liberia South Sudan Timor-Leste Congo, DR Togo Tanzania Mozambique Somalia Burundi Niger CAR Lao PDR Uganda Malawi Guinea Guinea-Bissau E thiopia Liberia Sierra Leone R wanda Mali Madagascar 22.6 21.2 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.6 16.8 14.7 14.0 13.7 13.4 364 Million People 13.1 11.1 9.8 9.0 8.8 without access 5.5 5.3 3.1 1.6 Access rate (% ) 8.0 7.0 5.6 5.6 5.0 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.2 369 Million People without access 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Access rate (%) Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter 11
    12. 12. Fastest moving countries have succeeded in providing access to 3-4% of their populations annually Annual incremental access and population Population (Million) Electricity Access 20 incremental access incremental total population 10 5 Annual incremental access (%) 4% 25 15 Annual change in incremental access 3% 2% 1% World annual average= 1.3% 0% 0 Population (Million) 20 15 Non-solid fuel Access incremental access incremental total population 10 5 0 Annual incremental access (%) 4% 3% 2% 1% World annual average= 1.1% 0% Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter 12
    13. 13. Methodological challenges in medium term Measuring Household access to electricity •Access to Electricity Supply defined by increasing levels of supply attributes including quantity, duration, evening supply, affordability, legality, and quality •Electricity Services defined by the use of number of key electricity services. The use is measured through ownership of appliances, which are categorized by tier following the equivalent tier of electricity supply needed for their adequate operation. Measuring access to modern cooking solutions •Technical performance is done firstly by categorizing cookstoves into low, medium or high grade, based on direct observation. Secondly, the manufactured cookstove is assessed based on whether it is certified or not •Conformity, convenience and adequacy (CCA) are the three attributes that are included in addition to the technical performance of the cooking solution to obtain an integral measurement of access to cooking. 13
    14. 14. Multi-tier access index can be approximated using data on average residential electricity consumption Tier-0 - Tier-1 Radio, Cellphone Charging, Task Light Tier-2 General Lighting AND Television AND Fan Tier-3 Tier-2 AND any low-power appliances Tier-4 Tier-3 AND any medium-power appliances Tier-5 Tier-4 AND any high-power appliances <3 3-66 66-321 321-1,317 1,317-2,120 >2,120 Indicative Electricity Services Consumption (kWh) per hh per year Index of Access to Electricity Services = ∑(PT x T) with PT = Proportion of households at the Tth tier T=Tier number {0,1,2,3,4,5} Thousands Average residential electricity consumption per household (1,000 Kwh) - (IEA 2010) Simplified energy access index based on average consumption 14.4 15 13.3 2000 2010 6 2000 2010 5 10 4.9 4.5 5 1.5 1.0 1.71.5 1.31.6 2.1 1.7 2.7 1.9 2.52.8 3.7 2.8 Index (0-5) Kwh 4.2 4.8 4.4 3.4 2.9 4 3.1 3 2.7 2.2 2 1 3.3 3.0 3.5 3.0 3.8 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.1 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0 SA CCA SSA LAC EA NA SEA DEV WA World SSA SA SEA LAC Global Tracking Framework| Energy Access Chapter WA CCA EA NA DEV 14
    15. 15. RENEWABLE ENERGY 15
    16. 16. Methodological Challenges Challenge Issues Proposed Approach Energy Accounting Method Primary energy accounting under-estimates useful energy produced by renewable sources, multiple methods exist for estimating final energy consumption Measure the share of renewable energy in total final energy consumption terms using direct equivalent method Measuring Sustainability Despiteprogress, no internationally agreed criteria and assessment methodologies for each of the renewable energy technologies Create a framework for measuring sustainability in the medium term Classifying Biomass Available data repositories do not distinguish between traditional and modern uses of biomass Improve capability to separately track different categories of bioenergy in medium term Data Gaps Some aspects of renewable energy not fully captured in data (small distributed grid-connected generation, direct production of heat, waste fuels, heat pumps, etc.) Develop methods for accounting these categories and including them in data collection efforts / surveys in medium term (link to access) 16
    17. 17. Traditional biomass accounts for over half of total renewable energy used mainly for heating and cooking Global Share of Renewable Energy in TFEC, 2010 Renewable Energy Applications 1% 17% 17 Electricity 21% 82% Source: IEA Transport 4% Heating 75% 1990 2010 Hydro accounts for 75% of renewable electricity Biomass accounts for 97% of heating needs
    18. 18. Share of renewables in global energy mix hardly increased since 1990 (despite absolute growth) Renewable Energy Consumption (EJ) vs. Share of RE Incremental Growth, EJ 1990-2010 Traditional Biomass 6.6 Modern Biomass 70 16.6% 17.2% 18.0% 17.4% +1.4 % 17.0% 3.8 Hydro 3.7 Biofuels 60 2.2 Wind RE Share Other RE Solar +19 EJ 50 Hydro 0.6 Biogas 0.6 Geothermal Waste 40 1.0 Modern Biomass Marine 0.3 0.2 0.0 Total: 19 EJ 30 Share Change in TFEC, 1990-2010 Traditional Biomass 20 Traditional Biomass -0.7% Modern Biomass 0.2% Hydro 0.5% Biofuels 10 0.6% Wind 0.3% Solar 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.2% Biogas 0.2% Geothermal 0.1% Waste 0.0% Marine 0.0% Total: 1.4 % Source: IEA 18
    19. 19. Non-conventional renewables experienced double digit growth reflecting surge in policy incentives and finance Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) of RE Consumption, 1990-2010 25.0% 16.7% 11.1% 5.1% 0.0% Marine 1.2% 1.9% Traditional Modern Biomass Biomass 11.4% Biofuels Solar 6.6% 2.3% Hydro Geothermal Waste Number of Countries Introducing RE Policies and Targets 12 Wind Investments in Renewable Energy About 25 developing countries have a FITP today 10 Biogas $bn 300 258 250 220 8 200 But auctions are also becoming a key policy choice 6 Low Income Upper Middle Income High Income India 133 97 Lower Middle Income 4 Brazil 167 161 150 100 50 2 China 61 United States 40 9 15 14 Rest of World 19 Europe 0 2000 0 1990-2000 2001-2005 2006-2012 FITP Source: IEA, REN 21, BNEF 1990-2000 2001-2005 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2006-2012 RPS / Auctions 19
    20. 20. Less developed regions show higher (though declining) renewable energy shares – and vice versa Regional and Country Share of Renewables in TFEC(%) Share of RE in Each Region / Country 1990 2000 2010 Europe 7.8 9.4 13.7 North America 6.0 7.1 9.0 Former Soviet Union 3.2 3.8 4.0 Middle East 1.2 0.7 0.9 Latin America 32.3 28.2 29.0 Africa 62.1 63.0 61.6 Asia (excl. China and India) 21.8 18.9 18.8 China 33.5 29.2 19.4 India 57.5 52.6 42.4 World 16.6 17.4 18.0 Regional Contribution to the Global RE Share, 2010 Middle East 0.2% Region/Country FSU 2% N. America 10% Africa 21% L. America 11% Europe 12% China 19% India 13% Other Asia 14% 20
    21. 21. Two thirds of expansion of modern renewable energy during last 20 years concentrated in just five countries Top 20 Countries by RE consumption increase, 1990-2010 (PJ) 2,804 United States 2,274 1,719 Germany 730 546 Italy Sweden (4) France (1) (0) Poland Austria United Kingdom Chile Venezuela (500) Waste 340 297 221 214 209 204 198 159 139 138 142 - 118 112 95 94 - 500 Modern Biomass Biogas Biofuels Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 RE excluding traditional biomass Source: IEA 21
    22. 22. Countries most heavily dependent on renewable energy have reached penetration levels of around one third RE excluding traditional biomass and hydro Source: IEA 22
    23. 23. ENERGY EFFICIENCY 23
    24. 24. Methodological challenges Challenge Proposed Approach Multi-dimensionality Track global performance onenergyintensitycomplementedbyenergyintensity of majoreconomicsectors and efficiency of energyindustry Movetowardsbetter tracking of targets, policies, institutions, investments Intensity vs. Efficiency Trackenergyintensityforcountries and majorregions/blocks, wherefeasiblecomplementwithefficiencydecom positiontostripoutstructuraleffects Market Exchange Rate vs. PurchasingPowerParity Trackpurchasingpowerparity Primary vs. finalenergy Track global energyintensity in terms of primaryenergydemand Tracksectoralenergyintensity in terms of final energyconsumption Volatility Track a fiveyearmovingaveragetrend 24
    25. 25. Last decade shows slowing rates of improvement in energy intensity (higher when adjusted) CAGR Energy Intensity (PPP) 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2010 Adjusted CAGR Energy Intensity 1990-2000 -0.99% 1990-2010 -1.21% -1.30% -1.61% 2000-2010 -1.49% -1.77% Source: IEA, WDI 25
    26. 26. Service sector contributed the most to energy savings during last 20 years Energy Intensity Trends by Sector Share of Cumulative Savings by Sector MJ/$2005 PPP Industry Agriculture Services 0% 10 Industry 40% 5 -1.4% -1.4% Service 56% Agriculture 4% -2.2% -3% CAGR 1990-2010 (left) EI in 1990 (right) 0 EI in 2010 (right) Note: Services include services, transport, and residential Source: IEA, WDI 26
    27. 27. East Asia accounted for the lion’s share of energy saved, even as Middle Eastern energy intensity deteriorated Share of Cumulative Savings by Region, 1990-2010 Energy Intensity Trends by Region CAGR 1990-2010 (left) EI in 1990 (right) EI in 2010 (right) MJ/$2005 PPP 40 2% 0.8% 30 0% -0.1% -0.5% -0.5% -1.1% -1.3% -2% -1.5% -1.7% 20 -1.1% -1.3% 10 -2.3% EA (58%) NAm (17%) EU (10%) EE (6%) SA (4%) CCA (2%) LAC (1%) SSA (1%) Oceania ( <1%) SEA (<1%) -3.2% -4% 0 NAm EU EE CCA WA EA SEA SA Oceania LAC NAf SSA Source: IEA, WDI 27
    28. 28. Energy consumption patterns differ by income group Energy Consumption/GDP (PPP) HICs UMICs LMICs LICs Energy Consumption/Capita Source: IEA, WDI Bubble size represents volume of primary energy consumption in 2010 28
    29. 29. Top 20 (2) consumers accounting for 80% (40%) of global energy demand Largest Primary Energy Consumers, 2010 (EJ) China USA Russia India Japan Germany Brazil France Canada South Korea Iran Indonesia UK Mexico Italy Saudi Arabia South Africa Ukraine Spain Australia 107.4 92.8 29.4 29.0 20.8 13.7 11.1 11.0 10.5 10.5 8.7 8.7 8.5 7.5 7.1 7.1 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.2 Most Energy Intensive Countries, 2010 (MJ/$2005 PPP) Liberia Congo, DRC Burundi Trinidad & T. Sierra Leone Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Guinea Mozambique Iceland Togo Ukraine Zambia Uganda Ethiopia Kazakhstan Sao Tome & P. Guyana Bhutan Swaziland 59.8 47.6 33.3 28.8 26.7 23.8 23.3 22.2 22.2 21.6 20.8 19.8 18.8 18.2 18.0 17.6 16.3 16.3 16.0 15.9 Countries with Highest Level of Energy Intensity Among 20 Largest Energy Consumers, 2010 1 2 3 4 5 All Sectors Ukraine Russia Saudi Arabia South Africa China Industry Ukraine Russia Canada Brazil South Africa Services Iran Ukraine Saudi Arabia Indonesia Russia Agriculture Canada South Africa Russia United States Brazil Source: IEA, WDI 29
    30. 30. Fast moving countries typically register improvements in the range of 4-8% annually CAGR Energy Intensity, 1990-2010 Bosnia-Herz. Estonia Azerbaijan Armenia Afghanistan East Timor Sao Tome & P. Belarus Georgia China Lithuania Kyrgyzstan Albania Bhutan Laos Eritrea Romania Turkmenistan Moldova Uganda Countries with Lowest Level of Energy Intensity (MJ/$2005 PPP) St. Lucia Botswana Ireland Bahamas Switzerland Malta Grenada Kiribati Panama Albania Colombia Antigua & Barb. Peru Solomon Isl. St. Vincent Afghanistan Vanuatu Dominica Hong Kong Macau 11.9% 8.4% 7.9% 7.3% 6.8% 6.3% 5.9% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.0 1.0 Countries with Lowest Level of Energy Intensity Among 20 Largest Energy Consumers, 2010 1 2 3 4 5 All Sectors UK Spain Italy Germany Japan Industry Japan Germany UK Spain Italy Services Japan UK Spain Italy Germany Agriculture Saudi Arabia Indonesia India Germany China Source: IEA, WDI 30
    31. 31. Structural and activity effects partially mask extent of energy efficiency efforts among top 20 energy consumers 3% CAGR 1990-2010 (left) Intensity in 1990 Intensity in 2010 (right) 35 MJ/$2005 30 CAGR for Intensity Components, 1990-2010 0% 25 20 -3% 15 10 -6% 5 -9% 0 9% CAGR for Activity, Structure and Intensity Components, 1990-2010 4% -1% -6% Total Energy Activity component Structure component Intensity component 31
    32. 32. China stands out in terms of greatest improvement seen among top energy consuming nations Energy Intensity in 1990 Energy Intensity in 2010 CAGR 1990-2010 3% Saudi Arabia 0% - Japan 10 Germany UK -3% Energy Intensity, 1990 0% S. Africa 20 Russia Indonesia 30 40 - Japan 50 Germany UK Kazakhstan India Nigeria Uzbekistan Iraq -3% Poland Thailand Venezuela Brazil Ukraine Canada United States 10 Energy Intensity, 2010 S. Africa 20 Indonesia 30 40 50 Ukraine Canada Russia Kazakhstan India Nigeria United States Iraq Uzbekistan Poland China -6% Iran UAE Thailand Venezuela HICs UMICs LMICs Saudi Arabia Iran UAE Brazil CAGR 1990-2010 3% HICs UMICs LMICs China -6% Bubble size represents volume of primary energy consumption in 2010 Source: IEA, WDI Global Tracking Framework| Energy Efficiency Chapter 32
    33. 33. Through energy intensity improvements China saved about as much energy as it consumed over last 20 years Largest Energy Consumers, Cumulative 1990-2010(EJ) USA Europe China Russia Japan India Germany France Canada UK Brazil Korea Italy Ukraine Indonesia Mexico Iran Spain S. Africa S. Arabia Australia 1,904 1,346 1,269 595 435 413 297 221 214 190 168 155 146 138 134 131 118 103 101 99 93 Largest Energy Savers, Cumulative 1990-2010 (EJ) China USA Europe India Germany UK Poland Bosnia-Herz. Russia Iraq Canada Belarus Romania Estonia Mexico France Australia Kazakhstan Argentina Nigeria Czech Rep. 1,320 369 223 114 69 47 46 38 35 24 23 18 18 16 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 Source: IEA, WDI 33
    34. 34. SCALE OF CHALLENGE 34
    35. 35. SE4ALL starting point in perspective Percentages Universal access to modern energy Electrification Cooking Renewable Rate of energy share improvement of in global energy intensity energy mix CAGR 1990-2010 (%) (%) Historic reference 1990 74 47 16.6 Starting point 2010 83 59 18.0 Objective for 2030 -1.3 -2.6 100 100 36.0 35
    36. 36. Large absolute achievements of last 20 years diluted by surging population and energy demand Absolute achievements Relative achievements - 1.8 bn. connected to electricity 1.6 bn. gained access to primary non-solid fuel use - Electrification increases at 1.3% pa - Non-solid fuel use increases at 1.1% pa - 20 EJ of energy provided through renewable sources 2,216 EJ of energy saved through reductions in energy intensity - Compound growth rate of renewable energy consumption of 2% pa - Compound growth rate of energy intensity only -1.3% pa - Global population grew at 1.3% per year Global primary energy demand grew at 2.0% per year Global GDP grew at 3.2% per year 36
    37. 37. Projections from IEA and IIASA illustrate scale of challenge entailed by SE4ALL objectives Percentage in 2030 IEA SCENARIOS Current Policies New Policies Efficient World 450 PPM (20C) GEA SCENARIOS SE4ALL 20C Universal access to modern energy Electrification Cooking Renewable 20 year rate of energy share improvement of in global mix energy efficiency - - 18 -2.0 88 88 - 69 69 - 20 22 27 -2.3 -2.8 -2.9 - - 34 to 41 23 to 41 -3.0 to -3.2 -1.8 to -3.2 37
    38. 38. NEXT STEPS 38
    39. 39. Launch and dissemination calendar • Consultation – First round methodological consultation, November 2012 – Second round full consultation, February 2013 • Previews – – – – ESMAP CG, Washington DC, March 1st SE4ALL EXCOM, Washington DC, March 11th Energy Thematic Consultation, Oslo, April 9th SE4ALL Advisory Board, Washington DC, April 19th • Launch – – – – Vienna Energy Forum, Vienna, May 28th-30th Briefing to EU Development Ministers, Brussels Briefing to UN Ambassadors, New York Other opportunities? 39
    40. 40. Plans for future global tracking • Details are still being discussed and funding unclear • Individual partners commit to on-going tracking work – – – – Electrification: WB/ESMAP via STEAR? Cooking: WHO? Renewable energy: various possibilities? Energy efficiency: IEA and WB/ESMAP? • Bi-annual unified report timed around Vienna Energy Forum 40
    41. 41. Global energy data improvement agenda Recommended targeting of effort over next five years Energy access a) Work to improve energy questionnaires for Global Omnibus Surveys b) Pilot country level surveys for multi-tier framework Renewable energy a) b) c) d) Energy efficiency a) Integrate data systems on energy consumption and associated output measures b) Strengthen country systems and capability to collect data on sectoral intensities (and ideally sub-sectoral process efficiency ) c) Improve data on physical activity drivers (traffic volumes, number of households and floor space, etc. ) d) Improve data on energy efficiency targets, policies and investments Improve data and definitions for bio-energy and sustainability Capture renewable energy in distributed generation Capture renewable energy in off-grid (including micro-grids) Promote a more harmonized approach to target-setting 41
    42. 42. ANNEX 42
    43. 43. Definition of renewable energy Energy from natural sources that are replenished at a faster rate than they are consumed, including the following – – – – – – – Hydro Bio-energy Geothermal Aero-thermal Solar Wind Ocean 43
    44. 44. Estimation model Mixed model to estimate values for countries with at least one data point: Mixed model includes fixed effects for the time variable and the regional aggregation and it defines hierarchical random effects by regions and country and for time at country level FEATURES OF THE MODEL: • Natural cubic spline transformation cantered in 2000, the median date of the surveys data collected, and 5 knots over the entire time period. • Data has been converted in logit function • A fitted option has been used to predict the fixed portion plus contributions based on predicted random effects in countries with at least one data point. • Values in countries without any data point are estimated by using the linear predictor for the fixed portion of the model based on the regional average value. 44
    45. 45. Candidate Multi-tier frameworks Measuring Household access to electricity Measuring access to modern cooking solutions Supply side: Tiers based on six attributes of electricity supply ATTRIBUTES Technical Performance: Grades based on type of cookstove, fuel used and certification Low Grade Tier-0 Tier-1 Tier-2 Tier-3 Tier-4 Tier-5 Peak Available Capacity (Weq) - >1 >20 >200 >2000 >2000 Duration (Hrs) - ≥4 ≥4 ≥8 ≥16 ≥22 - ≥2 ≥2 ≥2 ≥4 ≥4 Affordability - - √ √ √ √ Indoor Pollution Formality - - - √ √ √ Overall Pollution Quality (Voltage) - - - √ √ √ Safety High Grade Efficiency Evening Supply (Hrs) Medium Grade Tier-1 Tier-2 Task Lighting General AND Lighting Phone AND Television Charging AND Fan Grade-E Grade-D Self-made cookstove Grade-C Grade-B Grade-A Non-BLEN certified cookstoves Uncertified non BLEN cookstove BLEN cookstove Practicality: Tiers based on CCA attributes (conformity, convenience and adequacy) Service side: Tiers based on regular use of appliances Tier-0 - Attributes Tier-3 Tier-4 Tier-5 Tier-2 AND any low-power appliances Tier-3 AND any mediumpower appliances Tier-4 AND any high-power appliances Tier-0 Tier -1 Tier -2 Tier -3 Tier -4 Tier -5 Grade-A w/o CCA w/ CCA Grade-B w/o CCA w/ CCA Grade-C w/o CCA w CCA Grade-D w/o CCA w/ CCA Grade-E w/o CCA w/ CCA Index of Access = ∑(PT x T) PT= Proportion of households at the Tthtier T = Tier number {0,1,2,3,4,5} 45
    46. 46. Tracking Access to Energy Opt-in countries: The further development of the multi-tier metric can be substantially strengthened by rigorous piloting of questionnaires, certification, and consensus building Global Tracking: a simplified three-tier measurement condensing the six-tiers in the multi-tier candidate proposal is suggested, requiring only marginal improvement in data collection The metric is flexible and allows for country specific targets to be set to adequately account for varying energy challenges among countries. Immediate Tracking Tracking Access to Electricity Medium Term Tracking Global Tracking Country Level Tracking Immediate Tracking Tracking Access to Cooking Solutions Medium Term Tracking No Access No Electricity Access Electricity Connection or Electricity for Lighting No Access Basic Access Solar No Electricity Lantern Tier-0 Tier-1 No Access Cooking with Solid Fuels Global Tracking Tier-0 Tier-2 Tier-3 Tier-4 Tier-5 Access Cooking with Non-Solid Fuels No Access Self-made cookstove Country Level Tracking Advanced Access Home System or Grid Connection Basic Access Manufactured cookstove Tier-1 Tier-2 Advanced Access BLEN cookstove Tier-3 Tier-4 Tier-5 46
    47. 47. Achieving objectives calls for substantial financing as well as major policy commitments Average annual US$ billion 2010-2030 Actual for 2010 Additional from WEO Additional from GEA Universal access Electricity Cooking Renewable energy share in global mix 20 year rate of improvement of energy efficiency Total 9.0 0.1 220 180 409.1 45.0 4.4 >>174 393 >>616.4 60.0 19.0 158 207 1,081.6 Both WEO and GEA coincide on need for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and providing carbon pricing measures in order to meet objectives 47

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