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  • http://eeasia.unescap.org/PDFs/Assessment-Report.pdf
  • * Energy Plus Report, UN, 2012.
  • * http://www.cnbc.com/id/44716893/Energy_Efficiency_Market_Attracting_Smart_Money
  • * Source: http://www.cleanenergypipeline.com/Resources/Research%20reports/FinalRenewablesDeals2012outlook2011review.pdf
  • The 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook, ACE & IEEJ, February 2011. The Outlook comprised two scenarios: (i) Business as Usual (BAU) where it used the GDP growth targets of the 10 member states, and (ii) Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) which analyzes the impact of the energy saving goals and action plans in the primary energy demand and CO2 emissions.

Bitec 2013 , IPEEC Bitec 2013 , IPEEC Presentation Transcript

  • Energy Efficiency & the Energy Future in ASEAN Amit Bando, Executive Director, IPEEC Bangkok, Thailand 5 June 2013
  • 1. What is IPEEC? 1
  • 2
  • IPEEC is a high level international forum  Provides global leadership on energy efficiency by identifying and facilitating government implementation of policies and programs that yield high energy-efficiency gains.  Aims to promote information exchange on best practices and facilitate initiatives to improve energy efficiency.  Formally established in 2009 at the G8 summit in L'Aquila, Italy and resulting from the Heiligendamm Dialogue Process. 3
  • IPEEC is an Autonomous Entity Members account for over 80% of world GDP and energy use. EU United Kingdom France Germany Italy Russia Canada USA Japan Mexico Republic of Korea China Brazil India South Africa Australia Established in 2009 at the G8 summit in Italy; Reports to G20, Clean Energy Ministerial &others Facilitates Rapid Deployment of Clean Technologies Worldwide The IPEEC Secretariatis located in Paris, France 4
  • IPEEC - guiding principles  Improving energy saving and energy efficiency is one of the quickest, greenest, and most cost-effective ways to address energy security and climate change as well as to ensure sustainable economic growth  All countries, both developed and developing, share common interests in improving their energy efficiency performance  There is abundant potential for international cooperation among them  Will contribute to improvement of energy efficiency at the global level  Developed countries need to play an important role in cooperation with developing countries  Accelerating dissemination and transfer of best practices, efficient technologies and capacity building in developing countries 5
  • and Services Follow Parallel Journeys Basic research Applied research Individual innovators Demonstration & sample distribution General regulation Early demonstration Full demonstration Marketed product Warranted product Small group: start-up/ unit in a company Medium-size operation Large scale operation Early adopters & niches Rational economic purchase Technology & market evaluation General regulation Specific regulation General regulation General regulation 6
  • 2. ASEAN’s Energy Challenges 7
  • A Context 8
  • Urbanization  Between 2005-2010, urban population overtook the rural population  rising from 49% to 51% Urban population, Asia-Pacific subregions, 1990 and 2010  By 2030, a majority or 2.7 billion people will live in cities and towns  equivalent to adding a new town of 137,000 people every day for next 21 years!  In the last two decades the Asia- Pacific urban proportion has risen by 29%  more than any other region Source: Statistical Yearbook for Asia and the Pacific 2011, UNESCA 9
  • Energy Intensity  Today, Asia covers the lion’s share of the world’s primary energy consumption  Between 2007 and 2030, the region is projected to account for 45-50% of the increase in world primary energy demand Global Primary Energy Intensity (2009)  Non-OECD Asian nations will lead industrial energy demand by an average of 2.3 to 2.6% per year  projected annual growth in OECD nations of 0.5% / year 10
  • Energy Access  Worldwide, 1.4 billion do not have access to electricity Almost 800 million in Asia-Pacific  By 2030, 1.2 billion people globally are expected to remain without electricity most of them in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia   Worldwide, 2.7 billion people rely on traditional use of biomass for cooking Almost 2 billion in Asia-Pacific  In Asia-Pacific, the number of people using biomass is likely to decrease from the current 1.937 billion to 1.769 billion   Global energy needs are estimated to grow > 50%  developing countries contributing to nearly ¾th of this increase  To meet the target of achieving universal access to modern energy services by 2030, investments of US$ 756 billion (or US$ 36 billion per year) is needed (Source: Energy Plus Report, UN, 2012) 11
  • ASEAN Energy Production Other renewables 700 Hydro 600 Geothermal 500 Coal 400 Mtoe 800 Gas Biomass 300 Oil 200 100 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010  Oil & gas sources in Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar; Thailand and Vietnam;  Coal in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam. Source: IEA, National University of Singapore 12
  • Energy Demand Exceeds Energy Production ASEAN Primary Energy Demand (Mtoe)  Increasingly, ASEAN will have to rely on energy imports;  Coal’s importance in the ASEAN energy mix is growing. Source: ASEAN Center for Energy, 2011 13
  • Main Energy Challenges in the Region  Energy Security: Coal use will increase,  Energy consumption in the transport sector is expected to rise from 87 Mtoe in 2007 to 300 Mtoe in 2030.  Energy Poverty:  Out of the 567 million people living in the ASEAN region, 160.3 million do not have any access to electricity.  For example, only 10% of rural Myanmar has access to electricity.  Energy efficiency (EE):  EE remains low in most sectors. Source: National University of Singapore, 2012  14
  • B Energy Efficiency Trends in the Asia Pacific Region 15
  • Energy Intensity Trends  Global energy intensity has decreased by 1.4% p.a. since 1990  Largest reductions found in the regions with the highest energy intensities (China, CIS and India)  Industry and power generation accounted for almost ½ of that reduction (about 30% and 15%, respectively)  Per capita energy consumption to 2030 is likely to grow at about the same rate as in 1970 - 90 (0.7% p.a.)  Energy per unit of GDP – continues to improve globally, and at an accelerating rate This acceleration is important as restrains the overall growth of primary energy. Ex: During the 11th Five Year Plan in China, through various EE initiatives, energy consumption grew at an annual average of 6.6% compared to average annual growth rate of 11.2% for the national economy 
  • Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally BUILDINGS  A EU Directive on the energy performance of buildings (2009) harmonised standards for new buildings, making mandatory buildings certificates for the sale or rent of dwellings Regions with efficiency standards on new buildings  In most countries, standards exist for both dwellings and service sector buildings, except in Africa and in Asia where most often standards only apply to nonresidential buildings Source: WEC Survey, 2010
  • Energy Efficiency Regulatory Trends Globally - 2 LABELLING AND APPLIANCE STANDARDS  EU has mandatory labelling for several electrical appliances  In OECD Asia and America, about 70% of the countries have implemented labels for refrigerators  In Africa, the Middle East and non-OECD Asia, labels are not widespread: they exist for refrigerators in less than 20% Source: WEC Survey, 2010 18
  • Energy Efficiency Market Penetration  Energy efficiency firms attracted nearly $1.1 billion in venture capital in 2010, almost double that of 2007.*  LIGHTING: LED is the fastest growing market at a CAGR of 14.9% from 2011 to 2016  Asia will witness the highest growth (CAGR of 16.6%)  BUILDINGS: EE market $87.0bn in 2012  GREEN IT: Cloud computing revenue to continue worldwide growth at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.8%   Market increase: US$46 billion (2009) to US$210.3 billion (2015) EE measures could drive total data center energy expenditures down from $23.3 billion in 2010 to $16.0 billion in 2020 (28% reduction in GHG emissions from 2010 levels) 19
  • Energy Efficiency Financing Trends  Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy deal value rose 40% year on year in 2011  The rise was fuelled by a big increase in US$1bn plus deals - almost all from a wave of solar, EE and wind power deals  The total number of 2011 deals dipped 6% year on year but still high at 570  Rebounded in 2010 off the 2009 low of 319  Increased deal value is not just coming from the largest deals  Median deal value rose 25% year on year, from US$28.1m to US$35.2m  Asia-Pacific targets accounted for US$4.6bn but Asia Pacific buyers completed US$9.4bn of transactions in 2011  Just under half of this bidder total was accounted for by the two big European purchases by Toshiba and China National Bluestar.
  • Energy Efficiency Financing Trends Asia Pacific deals by sector Source: Final Renewables Deals 2012 Outlook 2011 Review, PwC. 21
  • ESCOs  The ESCO industry in Asia Pacific is poised to grow From $3.0 billion in annual revenue in 2009 to $18.5 billion by 2016  421% increase from 2010 levels  Example: Despite not even being operational until 1998, annual revenues for China’s ESCO industry to reach $17 billion by 2015, increasing its share of the APAC regional market to over 90% (Source: Pike Research).
  • 3. Energy Efficiency: Opportunities & Challenges 23
  • Energy Saving Potential in the Region Based on a Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario & the Alternative Policy Scenario (APS) Source: 3rd ASEAN Energy Outlook, 2011 24
  • EE Targets in the ASEAN Region  For the region: 15% reduction in energy intensity (2005 – 2015)  Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore & Thailand: 20% energy intensity reduction (2005 to 2020–2030, depending on the country) ASEAN Primary Energy Intensity 1990 - 2030 Source: ASEAN Center for Energy, 2013 25
  • Main Barriers to EE  Many regional organizations have overlapping mandates;  Target of decreasing energy intensity by 8% (by 2015) for     the ASEAN region is not allocated by country or sector; The vertical linkages in decision making need improvement: top level decision makers are hard to reach; EE action plans are not thoroughly developed - hinders their timely implementation; Overall lack of training, capacity & international expertise; EE related data are lacking; regional information clearing house could be established; Source: WEACT Workshop, 2011 26
  • Energy Efficiency Planning in Asia-Pacific Strengths Weaknesses • • • • • Cost of investments • Lack of skilled personnel • Lack of consumer awareness on need for Energy Efficiency • Weak in-country R & D Increases sustainability Increases energy security Creates of market leader Increases energy access Opportunities Threats • • • • • • Rebound effect (effort does not reduce energy consumption as planned) • Fall in energy prices leading to “expensive” conservation Increased value and lifespan Investment relief (tax) Market for new innovations Socio-economic co-benefits Competitive advantage
  • Strategies to Promote EE Strategy Develop EEPolicies &Build Capacity Raise awareness & disseminateinf ormation Promote best practices Facilitate EE Financing 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. 2. Action Develop clear policies and plans to promote EE. Set nationaltargets & develop plans to monitor the results. Strengthen human capacity and enhance infrastructure. Develop and run EE campaigns to raise awareness. Disseminate information using all appropriate medias (including energy labels). Demonstrate best energy practices and successful cases, Develop regulation &/or provide incentives to encourage best practices in facilities. Build up capacity for all stakeholders. Develop mechanisms to enhance financing for EE Increase the involvement of national & international Source: WEACT Workshop, 2011 28
  • More Than Just Energy Savings Government Action to Promote Energy Efficiency Sustainable Development: Enhanced Energy Access Climate Change Mitigation: Reduced GHG Emissions Energy Security: Reducing Energy Use Low Carbon Economy •Improved air quality • Jobs created • Lower energy cost 29
  • 5. Next Steps? 30
  • Moving Forward Governments need to commit by:  Providing an overarching policy framework combining mandatory and voluntary policies and strengthening enforcement  Promoting greater awareness of EE  Playing an essential role as integrator of the value chain  Establishing funding mechanisms to jump-start EE financing  Particularly in the short term  Institutionalizing standard-selling & enhancing professionalism within the industry by creating proper accreditation & certification standards  Publicizing accurate information about EE product suppliers and ESCOs  Removing/rationalizing other barriers that distort markets  Such as energy subsidies 31
  • Moving Forward - 2 And Businesses need to  Move towards an integrated value chain approach where suppliers extend their service portfolio to offer complete solutions (auditing, installation, maintenance and financing solutions)  Develop innovative financing vehicles for EE projects by collaborating with financial institutions & develop expertise in EE project financing  Increase awareness of EE and enhance industry professionalism  Adopt a more active role in promoting EE and in professionalizing the industry from within by setting standards and benchmarks – energy suppliers and ESCOs can lead effort  Bring in the best practices from experiences in other countries – multinationals can act as catalysts 32
  • Areas where International Expertise can Help  Financial mechanisms to promote EE;  Enhanced EE in industry and buildings;  Improved energy management;  Data collection and indicators;  Development of policies and action plans; and  Enhanced coordination of regional actions. 33
  • Thank you for your attention!  Any questions? Please contact: contact@ipeec.org 9 rue de la Fédération 75739 Paris France 34