Oxford "Future of Cities" @ the Harvard GSD

The Future of Cities: Three scenarios for urban futures A project by the Oxford Programme for the Future of Cities Presented by: Noah Raford, DUSP, MIT nraford@mit.edu

2.1 billion more in cities

Mostly young

Most in slums

Increasing complexity

Decreasing resources

+ Uncertainty The future Complexity Risk Future 2 Past trends Future 3 Certainty - Rate of change + Past Present Future Scenarios: planning for change

23 interviews world wide • Architecture • Commercial tenants • Entrepreneurship • Environment • Governance • Infrastructure • Non-governmental organisations • Planning • Real estate • Technology

Drivers of change Growing income inequality Lack of capital availability Role of centralized governance Infrastructure decay Lifestyle change & value shifts Resource shortages

Economic • Increased division of wealth between rich and poor • The world’s poor are an increasingly powerful force in urban development • Current urban development models not t for their emergent needs • Global warming will disproportionately effect the poor • International nance will become more important, domestic capital less • International nance will become more selective, comparing between cities • Taxation will continue to be a strong determinant of capital ows • New ecological accounting mechanisms will play an increasing role in real estate nance and development • Building obsolescence will become an increasingly important factor

Political • Most city governments will lack the resources to meet increasing citizens demands • Weaken central government and open room for other players • Civil society and community based organisations will be the rst to ll this role • Bottom-up participatory approaches to development and management will become important • Local government will need to shift from regulation to enabling and facilitating • Boundaries of where city authorities ends will blur, administrative implications are unclear • Grassroots' innovation could lead to transformational change • Insecurity more important factor, with high unemployment and economic, political and environmental migration

Cultural • Need for new types of education / consciousness change • Increased social fragmentation as people cling to their identities • Increasing fragmentation of commercial and social services • The youth will play a powerful role in urban governance • Need to strike a balance between short term pro t and growth and long term needs • Increasing complexity calls for new kinds of leadership

Environmental • Water will become an ever increasing problem • Droughts in rural areas will drive people to urban areas • Global warming and extreme weather will impact urban development • Most cities have very poor emergency preparedness for environmental disasters and will be blindsided by change • Disease return to rst world cities • May have to consider abandoning cities

Technological • ICT will enable acceleration of social dynamics already in place • Could have signi cant destabilising effects through asymmetric warfare, etc. • May allow for breakthroughs in decentralised infrastructure and governance • ICT enables relocation of activities, such as public administration • ICT will enable more social surveillance and government control

Workshop Learning journey Driver identi cation Sorting key drivers Scenario snippets Fleshing out and exploring implications Systems mapping Deeping scenarios

Gulliver’s Massive socio- Triumph of the World technical revolution Triads

Scenario 1: Gulliver’s World

Two worlds in one

A core of new eco-prosperity

A fringe of stagnation & struggle

Smarter cities & transport

But persistent basic challenges

Broader global leadership

But increasing fragmentation

Higher quality of life for some

But increasing exclusion for most

Scenario 2: Massive socio-technical revolution

A decade of decline

Producing social tension

Followed by a devastating blow

Leading to a youth uprising

And a new generation of leaders

Who push through new agreements

Creating global climate stabilization

And smarter, greener cities

With local food economies

Increased “soft wealth”

And greater quality-of-life for all

Scenario 3: Triumph of the Triad’s

Rapid, distruptive climate change

Market failures multiply

International aid falters

Con ict and migration ensues

Breakdown of critical infrastructure

Leads a harsh return to self-suf ciency

Urban tribalism increases

Leading to new “family values”

Warlord tax collectors provide service

For a global age of muddling through

For more information visit: The Oxford Programme for the Future of Cities http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/research/Pages/future- cities.aspx

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Oxford "Future of Cities" @ the Harvard GSD

by Noah Raford

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