Large-Scale Participatory
                     Futures Systems


                           Harnessing Collective Intellig...
Purpose
      An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your
      collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan ...
Purpose
      An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your
      collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan ...
Purpose
      An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your
      collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan ...
Purpose
      An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your
      collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan ...
Purpose
      An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your
      collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan ...
Outline




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
Outline
      1.        De nitions & overview
      2.        Research questions
      3.        An example, “The Future o...
De nitions & overview
      Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
De nitions & overview
      Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning


      “Creation, aggregation and ...
De nitions & overview
      Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning


      “Creation, aggregation and ...
De nitions & overview
      Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning


      “Creation, aggregation and ...
De nitions & overview
      Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning


      “Creation, aggregation and ...
De nitions & overview
      Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning


      “Creation, aggregation and ...
Research questions




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Research questions
      Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be
      had using online, collective inte...
Typical scenario method*
                                                                                           * i.e....
Example, “Future of Cities”




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Example, “Future of Cities”


                       23 interviews world wide:

                           • Architecture
...
Political
     •    Most city governments will lack the resources to meet increasing citizens demands
     •    Weaken cen...
Economic
     •    Increased division of wealth between rich and poor
     •    The world’s poor are an increasingly power...
Technological
     •    ICT will enable acceleration of social dynamics already in place
     •    Could have signi cant d...
Drivers of change
                           Growing income inequality
                           Lack of capital availabi...
Ranking key drivers




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Gulliver’s
                 World
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Gulliver’s     Massive socio-
                 World       technical revolution
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Gulliver’s     Massive socio-       Triumph of the
                 World       technical revolution       Triads
Wednesda...
Scenario 1:
                           Gulliver’s World




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Scenario 2:
                           Massive socio-technical revolution...
                           Or bust




Wednes...
Scenario 3:
                           Triumph of the Triad’s




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Components of scenarios
                                          Contextual

                                          Fo...
Components of scenarios
                                          Contextual

                                          Fo...
Theoretical foundations
      Studies of group decision-making reveal important shortcomings which
      limit our ability...
Theoretical foundations
      As a result we build operational theories of the way the
      world works based on past exp...
Theoretical foundations




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Theoretical foundations




                           "We will not have any more
                             crashes in ...
Theoretical foundations



                           "There will be no interruption
                           of our per...
Theoretical foundations


                            "Stock prices have reached
                           what looks lik...
Theoretical foundations



                            "This crash is not going to
                               have muc...
Theoretical foundations




                           "... the present depression has
                                abo...
Theoretical foundations




                            "Stabilization at [present]
                           levels is c...
Theoretical foundations




                            "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial
                    ...
Theoretical foundations
      Scenarios focus on decision-makers’ internal landscape

      “A company’s perception of its...
Theoretical foundations
      They produce learning & strategic awareness

      Scenarios are a game board of the future,...
Theoretical foundations
                                            Proposition 1: If scenarios are positively associated
...
Theoretical foundations
      How does SP do this?

      Includes diverse, contrary and
      non-traditional viewpoints ...
Theoretical foundations
      Why does it work?

      A focuses on organizantional learning, sensemaking and decision-mak...
Theoretical foundations
      Why does it work?




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Theoretical foundations
      Why does it work?




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Theoretical foundations
      Why does it work?




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Theoretical foundations
      Collaborative sensemaking in the public realm

      “Urban planning has lost sight of the f...
Theoretical foundations
      Collaborative sensemaking in the public realm

      “Scenarios are developed collectively t...
Schema for online approach




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Schema for online approach
      Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010)




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Schema for online approach
      Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010)

      Labor intensive & expensive




Wedn...
Schema for online approach
      Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010)

      Labor intensive & expensive
      Be...
Schema for online approach
      Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010)

      Labor intensive & expensive
      Be...
Schema for online approach
      Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010)

      Labor intensive & expensive
      Be...
Schema for online approach
      Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010)

      Labor intensive & expensive
      Be...
Schema for online approach




                             (Malone et al., 2010)




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Schema for online approach
       Who is performing the task? Why are they doing it?




                                 ...
Schema for online approach
       Who is performing the task? Why are they doing it?
       What is being accomplished? Ho...
Schema for online approach




                              (Malone et al., 2010)




Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Schema for online approach
                                   The problem


                                              ...
Yes



         Schema for online approach
                                                                             Wh...
What kind of activity needs to be



      Schema for online approach
                                                    ...
Schema for online approach                                    Decide




                                                 ...
Schema for online approach
                                                                                           The ...
Schema for online approach
                                                                                               ...
Schema for online approach
                                                                                               ...
Schema for online approach
                                                                                               ...
Schema for online approach
                                                                                               ...
Online Scenario Planning
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Online Scenario Planning

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This is the presentation of my research I recently gave at the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning, to members of the MIT Center for Collective Intelligence and others.

It covers the basic principles of scenario planning, of crowdsourcing and collective intelligence, and then proposes a way to bring them together into an effective online system for futures work.

Published in: Education

Online Scenario Planning

  1. 1. Large-Scale Participatory Futures Systems Harnessing Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning Noah Raford PhD Candidate, UIS/CDD Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Department of Urban Studies and Planning nraford@mit.edu http://news.noahraford.com/ Friday, April 9, 2010 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  2. 2. Purpose An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan my PhD. Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  3. 3. Purpose An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan my PhD. Me Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  4. 4. Purpose An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan my PhD. Me Your brains Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  5. 5. Purpose An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan my PhD. Ideas Feedback Me Your brains Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  6. 6. Purpose An informal crowdsourcing charrette to harness your collective intelligence and thereby scenario plan my PhD. Ideas Ph D Feedback Me Your brains Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  7. 7. Outline Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  8. 8. Outline 1. De nitions & overview Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  9. 9. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  10. 10. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  11. 11. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” 4. Theoretical foundations Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  12. 12. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” 4. Theoretical foundations 5. Schema for an online approach Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  13. 13. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” 4. Theoretical foundations 5. Schema for an online approach 6. Case studies Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  14. 14. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” 4. Theoretical foundations 5. Schema for an online approach 6. Case studies 7. Hypotheses Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  15. 15. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” 4. Theoretical foundations 5. Schema for an online approach 6. Case studies 7. Hypotheses 8. Evaluation criteria Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  16. 16. Outline 1. De nitions & overview 2. Research questions 3. An example, “The Future of Cities” 4. Theoretical foundations 5. Schema for an online approach 6. Case studies 7. Hypotheses 8. Evaluation criteria 9. Limitations & future work Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  17. 17. De nitions & overview Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  18. 18. De nitions & overview Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning “Creation, aggregation and interpretation of strategically relevant information for decision-making [through distributed means]” (Por, 2008) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  19. 19. De nitions & overview Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning “Creation, aggregation and interpretation of strategically relevant information for decision-making [through distributed means]” (Por, 2008) “The act of a company or institution taking a function once performed by employees and outsourcing it to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the form of an open call.” (Howe, 2006) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  20. 20. De nitions & overview Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning “Creation, aggregation and interpretation of strategically relevant information for decision-making [through distributed means]” (Por, 2008) “The act of a company or institution taking a function once performed by employees and outsourcing it to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the form of an open call.” (Howe, 2006) “Tools for foresight discussions... whose purpose is not a prediction or a plan, but a change in the mindset of the people who use them.” (de Gues, 1997) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  21. 21. De nitions & overview Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning “Creation, aggregation and interpretation of strategically relevant information for decision-making [through distributed means]” (Por, 2008) “The act of a company or institution taking a function once performed by employees and outsourcing it to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the form of an open call.” (Howe, 2006) “Tools for foresight discussions... whose purpose is not a prediction or a plan, but a change in the mindset of the people who use them.” (de Gues, 1997) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  22. 22. De nitions & overview Collective Intelligence for Crowdsourced Scenario Planning “Creation, aggregation and interpretation of strategically relevant information for decision-making [through distributed means]” (Por, 2008) “The act of a company or institution taking a function once performed by employees and outsourcing it to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the form of an open call.” (Howe, 2006) “Tools for foresight discussions... whose purpose is not a prediction or a plan, but a change in the mindset of the people who use them.” (de Geus, 1997) Gues, Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  23. 23. Research questions Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  24. 24. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  25. 25. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  26. 26. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? What do online approaches add to traditional SP and what do they take away? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  27. 27. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? What do online approaches add to traditional SP and what do they take away? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  28. 28. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? What do online approaches add to traditional SP and what do they take away? Which aspects of online, Web 2.0 approaches are most in uential to the stated goals of SP, in what way and why? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  29. 29. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? What do online approaches add to traditional SP and what do they take away? Which aspects of online, Web 2.0 approaches are most in uential to the stated goals of SP, in what way and why? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  30. 30. Research questions Can the bene ts of face-to-face scenario planning (SP) be had using online, collective intelligence approaches? What do online approaches add to traditional SP and what do they take away? Which aspects of online, Web 2.0 approaches are most in uential to the stated goals of SP, in what way and why? Can the design & testing of such a system provide more rigourous data for understanding the effects of SP on group process in general? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  31. 31. Typical scenario method* * i.e., The most common, Shell-style, Client defines key questions through initial Meetings, “inductive logics” approach, distinct from a ID Issues range of other rich approaches including conversations & meetings conversations Causal Layered Analysis (Inayatullah, 2004), La Prospective (Berger, 1964), the Generate Expert interviews, brainstorm with client, F2F & phone Manoa Method (Schultz, 1994), or the key themes desktop research interviews Three Horizons framework (Hodgson & Curry, 2008). ID driving Extract key themes, create trends and Group forces timelines, key events workshop Select key uncertainties and forces, list by Rank factors uncertainty / impact, predetermined drivers Develop draft Create scenario snippets, draft systems scenario logic diagrams, mix and match trends, 2x2 grids Create draft Integrate themes from draft scenarios, create Consultant final scenarios headlines and scenario narratives report Finalise Get client feedback, refine, detail, elaborate Group scenarios narrative to final form workshop Identify key strategic themes, reflect on Consider strategic questions in the context of each implications scenario Identify ID key indicators in each scenario for Consultant (Raford, 2010 after indicators strategic concerns report Schwartz, 1991; van der Heijden, 1997) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  32. 32. Example, “Future of Cities” Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  33. 33. Example, “Future of Cities” 23 interviews world wide: • Architecture • Commercial tenants • Entrepreneurship • Environment • Governance • Infrastructure • Non-governmental organisations • Planning • Real estate • Technology Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  34. 34. Political • Most city governments will lack the resources to meet increasing citizens demands • Weaken central government and open room for other players • Civil society and community based organisations will be the rst to ll this role • Bottom-up participatory approaches to development and management will become important • Local government will need to shift from regulation to enabling and facilitating • Boundaries of where city authorities ends will blur, administrative implications are unclear • Grassroots' innovation could lead to transformational change • Insecurity more important factor, with high unemployment and economic, political and environmental migration Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  35. 35. Economic • Increased division of wealth between rich and poor • The world’s poor are an increasingly powerful force in urban development • Current urban development models not t for their emergent needs • Global warming will disproportionately effect the poor • International nance will become more important, domestic capital less • International nance will become more selective, comparing between cities • Taxation will continue to be a strong determinant of capital ows • New ecological accounting mechanisms will play an increasing role in real estate nance and development • Building obsolescence will become an increasingly important factor Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  36. 36. Technological • ICT will enable acceleration of social dynamics already in place • Could have signi cant destabilising effects through asymmetric warfare, etc. • May allow for breakthroughs in decentralised infrastructure and governance • ICT enables relocation of activities, such as public administration • ICT will enable more social surveillance and government control Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  37. 37. Drivers of change Growing income inequality Lack of capital availability Role of centralized governance Infrastructure decay Lifestyle change & value shifts Resource shortages Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  38. 38. Ranking key drivers Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  39. 39. Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  40. 40. Gulliver’s World Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  41. 41. Gulliver’s Massive socio- World technical revolution Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  42. 42. Gulliver’s Massive socio- Triumph of the World technical revolution Triads Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  43. 43. Scenario 1: Gulliver’s World Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  44. 44. Scenario 2: Massive socio-technical revolution... Or bust Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  45. 45. Scenario 3: Triumph of the Triad’s Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  46. 46. Components of scenarios Contextual Focused on the uncertainty & discontinuities over which we have limited or no control Narrative, with actors, motives, chronology & events control Materially different along key strategic dimensions some control Primarily qualitative but often with quantitative support no control Use rich media & diverse presentation styles (van der Heijden, 1997) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  47. 47. Components of scenarios Contextual Focused on the uncertainty & discontinuities over which we have limited or no control Narrative, with actors, motives, chronology & events control Materially different along key strategic dimensions some control Primarily qualitative but often with quantitative support no control Use rich media & diverse presentation styles (van der Heijden, 1997) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  48. 48. Theoretical foundations Studies of group decision-making reveal important shortcomings which limit our ability to make effective decisions under conditions of dynamic uncertainty (Dorner, 1997). These include the “availability bias”, whereby people estimate the future probability of events based on easily remembered experiences from their past (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) “Experimenter bias”, whereby people look for and select data that con rms pre- existing expectations (Rosenthal, 1966) “Ambiguity effect”, whereby subjects are ignored or discounted for which we have partial or incomplete information (Frisch & Baron, 1988) “Groupthink biases”, whereby groups seek to minimize con ict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, or evaluating ideas (Janis, 1972). Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  49. 49. Theoretical foundations As a result we build operational theories of the way the world works based on past experience and data, then are reluctant to revise them in the face of change. Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  50. 50. Theoretical foundations Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  51. 51. Theoretical foundations "We will not have any more crashes in our time." John Maynard Keynes, 1927 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  52. 52. Theoretical foundations "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity." Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  53. 53. Theoretical foundations "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher, Ph.D, Economist, Oct. 17, 1929 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  54. 54. Theoretical foundations "This crash is not going to have much effect on business." Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  55. 55. Theoretical foundations "... the present depression has about spent its force..." HES, Aug 30, 1930 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  56. 56. Theoretical foundations "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible." HES Oct 31, 1931 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  57. 57. Theoretical foundations "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  58. 58. Theoretical foundations Scenarios focus on decision-makers’ internal landscape “A company’s perception of its business environment is as important as its investment infrastructure because its strategy comes from this perception. I cannot over-emphasize this point: unless the corporate microcosm changes, managerial behavior will not change; the internal compass must be re-calibrated.” (Wack, in Chermack, 2003) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  59. 59. Theoretical foundations They produce learning & strategic awareness Scenarios are a game board of the future, designed to break down people’s perceptions of the present & their assumptions of the future, in a way that allows them to better understand changing contexts and see new insights & opportunities, today. “Leading from the future, as it emerges in the present” Scharmer, 2009 Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  60. 60. Theoretical foundations Proposition 1: If scenarios are positively associated Scenarios with learning, then learning will increase as a result of participation in scenario planning. Proposition 2: If learning is positively associated with Increased the alteration of mental models, then mental models learning change as a result of learning. Proposition 3: If a chance in More accurate mental models alters decision mental models structure, then a change in mental models implies a change in the approach to decision making. Better decisions Proposition 4: If changes in decision making are positively associated with Proposition 5: If scenarios are positively rm performance, then rm associated with learning, learning is positively Improved performance will increase associated with altered mental models, altered performance as a result of altered mental models are positively associated with decision making strategies. rm performance, then scenarios can be positively associated with rm performance. (Chermack, 2003) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  61. 61. Theoretical foundations How does SP do this? Includes diverse, contrary and non-traditional viewpoints and evidence Focuses explicitly on “game-changing” events and trends Uses creative workshops & methods to understand organizational strategy making, “get inside”, then creatively disrupt it (Innes & Booher, 2001) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  62. 62. Theoretical foundations Why does it work? A focuses on organizantional learning, sensemaking and decision-making: Argys & Schon (1974) Double loop organizational learning Piaget (1977) Constructivist & social learning theory Weick (1979) Sensemaking & organizational awareness Klein (1999) Recognition-primed decision making Jarzabkowski (2005), Orlikowski (1992) Activity- & practice-based strategizing Boyd (1976) Competitive advantages of perception management Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  63. 63. Theoretical foundations Why does it work? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  64. 64. Theoretical foundations Why does it work? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  65. 65. Theoretical foundations Why does it work? Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  66. 66. Theoretical foundations Collaborative sensemaking in the public realm “Urban planning has lost sight of the future... creating increasingly feeble, myopic, degenerate frameworks that are more likely to react to yesterday's events than to prepare the way from here to the future.” (Isserman, 1985) Innes & Booher (1999) - Critique of public participation Healy (2001) - Role and need for community visioning Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  67. 67. Theoretical foundations Collaborative sensemaking in the public realm “Scenarios are developed collectively to build shared images of possible futures… scenarios nurture openness to change by allowing more complexity in futures states of a system and environment to be taken into account.” (Van der Heijden, 1997) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  68. 68. Schema for online approach Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  69. 69. Schema for online approach Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  70. 70. Schema for online approach Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010) Labor intensive & expensive Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  71. 71. Schema for online approach Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010) Labor intensive & expensive Bene ts poorly documented (no veri cation or reputation systems) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  72. 72. Schema for online approach Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010) Labor intensive & expensive Bene ts poorly documented (no veri cation or reputation systems) Limited participation (time, space & numbers) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  73. 73. Schema for online approach Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010) Labor intensive & expensive Bene ts poorly documented (no veri cation or reputation systems) Limited participation (time, space & numbers) Predominance of senior decision-making elite (participant bias) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  74. 74. Schema for online approach Current challenges (Raford, 2010; Pang, 2010) Labor intensive & expensive Bene ts poorly documented (no veri cation or reputation systems) Limited participation (time, space & numbers) Predominance of senior decision-making elite (participant bias) Highly dependent on facilitation skills & consultant synthesis (facilitator & author bias) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  75. 75. Schema for online approach (Malone et al., 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  76. 76. Schema for online approach Who is performing the task? Why are they doing it? (Malone et al., 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  77. 77. Schema for online approach Who is performing the task? Why are they doing it? What is being accomplished? How is it being done? (Malone et al., 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  78. 78. Schema for online approach (Malone et al., 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  79. 79. Schema for online approach The problem Can activities be divided into pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown locations? Yes No Crowd Hiearchy Are there adequate incentives to participate? Direct Influence / Love, Learning compenstion self-promotion friendship (Raford, 2010, after Yes Malone et al., 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  80. 80. Yes Schema for online approach What kind of activity needs to be done? Create Decide Can the activity be divided into Does the entire group need to small, independent pieces? abide by the same decision? Yes No No Collect Collaborate Individual decisions Mechanisms for collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative solutions needed? exchange hands or motivate workspaces, etc. decision? Voting Averaging No Yes Yes No (Raford, 2010, after Market Trust Malone et al., 2010) Finished exchange networks Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  81. 81. What kind of activity needs to be Schema for online approach done? Create Can the activity be divided into small, independent pieces? Yes No No Collect Collaborate Individual decisions Mechanisms for collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative solutions needed? exchange hands or motivate workspaces, etc. decision? No Yes Yes No Market Trust Finished exchange networks (Raford, 2010, after Malone et al., 2010) Finished Finished Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  82. 82. Schema for online approach Decide Does the entire group need to abide by the same decision? No Yes Individual Group decisions decision r ums Are money or resources required to exchange hands or motivate c. Prediction decision? Voting Averaging Concensus markets Yes No Finished Market Trust exchange networks Finished Finished (Raford, 2010, after Malone et al., 2010) Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  83. 83. Schema for online approach The problem Can activities be divided into pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown locations? Yes No Crowd Hiearchy Are there adequate incentives to participate? Direct Influence / Love, Learning compenstion self-promotion friendship Yes What kind of activity needs to be done? Create Decide Can the activity be divided into Does the entire group need to small, independent pieces? abide by the same decision? Yes No Yes No Individual Group Collect Collaborate decisions decision Mechanisms for collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative solutions needed? exchange hands or motivate workspaces, etc. Prediction decision? Voting Averaging Concensus markets No Yes Yes No Finished Market Trust Finished exchange networks Finished Finished Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  84. 84. Schema for online approach The problem Client defines key questions through initial Meetings, Can activities be divided into ID Issues pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown conversations & meetings conversations locations? Yes No Generate Expert interviews, brainstorm with client, F2F & phone Crowd Hiearchy key themes desktop research interviews Are there adequate incentives to ID driving Extract key themes, create trends and Group participate? forces timelines, key events workshop Direct Influence / Love, Learning Select key uncertainties and forces, list by compenstion self-promotion friendship Rank factors uncertainty / impact, predetermined drivers Develop draft scenario logic Create draft Create scenario snippets, draft systems diagrams, mix and match trends, 2x2 grids Integrate themes from draft scenarios, create headlines and scenario narratives Consultant report + Yes What kind of activity needs to be done? final scenarios Create Decide Can the activity be divided into Does the entire group need to Finalise Get client feedback, refine, detail, elaborate Group small, independent pieces? abide by the same decision? scenarios narrative to final form workshop Yes No Yes No Identify key strategic themes, reflect on Consider strategic questions in the context of each implications Collect Collaborate Individual Group scenario Mechanisms for decisions decision collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative exchange hands or motivate Identify ID key indicators in each scenario for Consultant solutions needed? workspaces, etc. decision? Voting Averaging Concensus Prediction markets indicators strategic concerns report No Yes Yes No Finished Market Trust Finished exchange networks Finished Finished Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  85. 85. Schema for online approach The problem Client defines key questions through initial Meetings, Can activities be divided into ID Issues pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown conversations & meetings conversations locations? Yes No Generate Expert interviews, brainstorm with client, F2F & phone Crowd Hiearchy key themes desktop research interviews Are there adequate incentives to ID driving Extract key themes, create trends and Group participate? forces timelines, key events workshop Direct Influence / Love, Learning Select key uncertainties and forces, list by compenstion self-promotion friendship Rank factors uncertainty / impact, predetermined drivers Develop draft scenario logic Create draft Create scenario snippets, draft systems diagrams, mix and match trends, 2x2 grids Integrate themes from draft scenarios, create headlines and scenario narratives Consultant report + Yes What kind of activity needs to be done? final scenarios Create Decide Can the activity be divided into Does the entire group need to Finalise Get client feedback, refine, detail, elaborate Group small, independent pieces? abide by the same decision? scenarios narrative to final form workshop Yes No Yes No Identify key strategic themes, reflect on Consider strategic questions in the context of each implications Collect Collaborate Individual Group scenario Mechanisms for decisions decision collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative exchange hands or motivate Identify ID key indicators in each scenario for Consultant solutions needed? workspaces, etc. decision? Voting Averaging Concensus Prediction markets indicators strategic concerns report No Yes Yes No Finished Market Trust Finished exchange networks Finished Finished Schema for online scenario planning Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  86. 86. Schema for online approach The problem Client defines key questions through initial Meetings, Can activities be divided into ID Issues pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown conversations & meetings conversations locations? Yes No Generate Expert interviews, brainstorm with client, F2F & phone Crowd Hiearchy key themes desktop research interviews Are there adequate incentives to ID driving Extract key themes, create trends and Group participate? forces timelines, key events workshop Direct Influence / Love, Learning Select key uncertainties and forces, list by compenstion self-promotion friendship Rank factors uncertainty / impact, predetermined drivers Develop draft scenario logic Create draft Create scenario snippets, draft systems diagrams, mix and match trends, 2x2 grids Integrate themes from draft scenarios, create headlines and scenario narratives Consultant report + Yes What kind of activity needs to be done? final scenarios Create Decide Can the activity be divided into Does the entire group need to Finalise Get client feedback, refine, detail, elaborate Group small, independent pieces? abide by the same decision? scenarios narrative to final form workshop Yes No Yes No Identify key strategic themes, reflect on Consider strategic questions in the context of each implications Collect Collaborate Individual Group scenario Mechanisms for decisions decision collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative exchange hands or motivate Identify ID key indicators in each scenario for Consultant solutions needed? workspaces, etc. decision? Voting Averaging Concensus Prediction markets indicators strategic concerns report No Yes Yes No Finished Market Trust Finished exchange networks Finished Finished Schema for online scenario planning Wednesday, 21 April 2010
  87. 87. Schema for online approach The problem ID Issues Client defines key questions through initial conversations & meetings Meetings, conversations Can activities be divided into pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown locations? = Key Generate Expert interviews, brainstorm with client, F2F & phone Yes Crowd No Hiearchy decision key themes desktop research interviews Are there adequate incentives to points for Group system participate? ID driving Extract key themes, create trends and forces timelines, key events workshop Rank factors Select key uncertainties and forces, list by uncertainty / impact, predetermined drivers Direct compenstion Learning Influence / self-promotion Love, friendship design Develop draft scenario logic Create draft Create scenario snippets, draft systems diagrams, mix and match trends, 2x2 grids Integrate themes from draft scenarios, create headlines and scenario narratives Consultant report + Yes What kind of activity needs to be done? final scenarios Create Decide Can the activity be divided into Does the entire group need to Finalise Get client feedback, refine, detail, elaborate Group small, independent pieces? abide by the same decision? scenarios narrative to final form workshop Yes No Yes No Identify key strategic themes, reflect on Consider strategic questions in the context of each implications Collect Collaborate Individual Group scenario Mechanisms for decisions decision collaboration - wikis - blogs - discussion forums Are money or resources required to Are only a few good (best) - collaborative exchange hands or motivate Identify ID key indicators in each scenario for Consultant solutions needed? workspaces, etc. decision? Voting Averaging Concensus Prediction markets indicators strategic concerns report No Yes Yes No Finished Market Trust Finished exchange networks Finished Finished Schema for online scenario planning Wednesday, 21 April 2010
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