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OVERVIEW on CLIMATE & TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES...

OVERVIEW on CLIMATE & TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES

“Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of Climate Change”

Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City
23 November 2009

RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division
DOST-PAGASA

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    Abastillas Climate Trends Abastillas Climate Trends Presentation Transcript

    • OVERVIEW on CLIMATE &TRENDS in the PHILIPPINES “Enhancing Communities Capacities to Confront Extreme Geo-Meteorological Events at the Core of Climate Change” Bulwagang Juan Luna, UP, Baguio City 23 November 2009 RUSY G. ABASTILLAS Climatology and Agrometeorology Division DOST-PAGASA
    • Philippine The nation’s meteorological serviceAtmospheric and public weather service providerGeophysicalAstronomicalServicesAdministration
    • NETWORK OF OBSERVATIONS58 Synoptic Stations23 Agromet Stations4 Radiosonde Stns. 5 Meteorological Satellite Receiving Facilities 10 Doppler radars(2 years from now)
    • The Philippine Climate …Characterized by humid equatorial or tropical maritime Type 4 Climate: Type 1 Climate: Rainfall more or less evenly Two pronounced seasons: dry from distributed throughout the year. November to April, wet during the rest of the year. Type 2 Climate: Type 3 Climate: Monthly Rainfall of Port A Monthly Rainfall of Tagbilaran Manila (Type I) IV) rea, City, Bohol (Type Baguio City No dry season with a pronounced Seasons not very pronounced, 500 200 450 180 maximum rainfall from NovemberApril relatively dry from November to to 400 160 January. during the rest of the year. and wet 350 140 120 M onthly Rainfall of Le gaspi City (Type II) Rainfall (mm) 300 Monthly Rainfall of Tuguegarao, Cag. (Type III) Rainfall (mm) 100 250 600 300 80 200 500 60 250 150 40 100 200 400 20 Rainfall (mm) Rainfall (mm) 50 0 150 300 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 0 Month JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Month 100 200 Climate Type I IV Climate Type 50 100 0 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DECMean annual rr=2379.3 Dipolog Month MonthInfanta =3967.3 Climate Type II III Climate TypeHinatuan =4168.3 Gen San
    • Monthly Normal Rainfall of Baguio City (1971-2000) Normal Temperature (Maximum, Minimum,Mean) of Baguio City (1971-2000) 1000.0 30.0 900.0 800.0 25.0 Rainfall in mm 700.0 20.0Rainfall in mm 600.0 500.0 15.0 400.0 10.0 300.0 200.0 5.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Month TMax TMin TMean Month Annual mean temperature of Baguio City (1971-2005) 20.5 20.0 Temp in °C 19.5 19.0 y = 0.0071x + 19.358 18.5 18.0 17.5 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Year annual mean temp Linear (annual mean temp)
    • Climatic controls that influence the climate in the Philippines • geography and topography – large hilly terrain, and coastal plains • semi-permanent lows and highs – produces airstreams /ocean currents • air streams - southwesterlies (SW monsoon)- Apr-Sep - northeasterlies (NE monsoon) –Oct- Mar - easterlies (North Pacific trades) – transition period • ocean currents = SST average 27.4C Phil. Sea • influenced by complex • linear systems interactions - ITCZ • rainfall variability - cold front - easterly waves • threatened by ECEs • tropical cyclones • various sectors affected • Devastating impacts could be mitigated • ENSO phenomenon through clear understanding of the complex mechanisms and dev’t of effective forecast tools.
    • Weather Causing Phenomena in the Philippines NORTHEAST MONSOON (AMIHAN) TROPICAL CYCLONE L L L L SOUTHWEST INTERTROPICAL MONSOON CONVERGENCE (HABAGAT) ZONE (ITCZ)
    • ITCZ L ITCZ L ITCZ L ITCZ LANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END)AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTINGSOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO
    • Seasonal Rainfall Distribution in the Philippines AVERAGE RAINFALL AVERAGE RAINFALL APRIL-SEPTEMBER OCTOBER-MARCH First (1951-2000) Second (1951-2000) semestral semestral Cold air from Siberia
    • Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines Period: 1948-2005 Northern Luzon is most frequently hit by tropical cyclones followed by Catanduanes and Northern Samar and least in the Mindanao area. Monthly Average Frequency of Tropical Cyclone in the PAR 3.5 3.0 No. of Tropical Cyclones 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Month*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
    • Climate Variability /ENSO
    • IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL Legend: Severe drought impacts Drought impacts with major losses Moderate drought impacts Near normal to above normal condition Way above normal condition Potential for flood damage Severe flood damage RED colored years are EL NINO years, BLUE colored years are LA NINA years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
    • TRENDS… Temperature Rainfall Tropical Cyclones
    • Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006
    • Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values) An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006
    • Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures
    • Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003 Trend in the frequency of days with Trend in the frequency with minimum maximum temperature above the 1961- temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days). 99th percentile (Warm nights). Significant Significant increase in the increase in the frequency of frequency of hot days warm nights Significant increase in the frequency of hot days and warm nights. *Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
    • Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines* Period: 1961 – 2003 (Cool days). (Cold nights). Significant Significant decrease in decrease in the number the number of cold days of cool nights • Significant decrease in the number of cold days and cool nights.*Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
    • Trend in Annual TotalRainfall* (1961 – 2003) Total Annual Rainfall• Decreases in the top northern part of Luzon and Southern Luzon.• Increases in the Bicol Region (except Daet), Visayas and Mindanao• Findings not statistically significant *Tibig, LV,et al (2004)Trends in extreme daily temperatures and 24-hr rainfall in the Phil. CAB Technical Report, PAGASA
    • Annual Number Tropical Cyclones and five-year running meanFrequency of tropical Cyclones 31 y = -0.0104x + 19.755 26 21 16 11 6 1 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 Year Number of Tropical Cyclones 5 per. Mov. Avg. (Number of Tropical Cyclones) Linear (Number of Tropical Cyclones)
    • TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES 250 1971-00 1951-80 1961-90 200 51-80Number 150 61-90 71-00 100 50 0 LUZON Luzon VISAYAS Visayas MINDANAO Mindanao
    • Mean Number of Tropical Cyclones during Normal, El Niño and La Niña Years 12 10TC Frequency 8 6 4 2 0 JFM (QTR1) AMJ (QTR 2) JAS (QTR3) OND (QTR4) Normal Years La Niña Years El Niño Years La Niña El Niño Year Normal Years Years Years JFM (QTR1) 1.21 1.24 0.38 AMJ (QTR 2) 3.29 2.87 2.38 JAS (QTR3) 9.91 8.86 8.85 OND (QTR4) 6.55 6.79 4.56 Total 20.96 19.76 16.17
    • Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated withthe passage of Tropical Cyclones (1951-2005) % of Rainfall 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Station Names NAIA 429 PortArea 425 Science Garden 430 Sangley Point 428 Vigan 222 Tuguegaro 233 Baguio City 328 Dagupan 325 Iba, Zam bales 324 Cubi Pt,Subic 426 Am bulong 432 Calapan 431 Puerto Princes a 618 Cuyo 630 Coron 526 Itbayat 132 Bas co Synop 135 Calayan 133 Aparri 232 Cabanatuan 330 Cas iguran 336 Alabat 435 Infanta 434 Rom blon 536 Mas bate 543 Daet 440 Legas pi 444 Virac Synop 446 Virac Radar 447 Roxas City 538 Iloilo 637 Catarm an 546 Catbalogan 548 Tacloban City 550 Dum aguete 642 Mactan 646 Maas in 648 Surigao City 653 Hinatuan 755 Dipolog 741 Lum bia 747 Cagayan De Oro 748 Malaybalay 751 Davao 753 Zam boanga 836 % Annual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems
    • HIGHLIGHTS: The Philippines is highly vulnerable to the impacts of tropical cyclones: flooding, high winds, storm surges and landslides. Increasing trend in annual mean temperature No trend in rainfall pattern No trend in the total number of annual tropical cyclones
    • RECENT DEVASTATING TROPICAL CYCLONES 1. Ondoy (Ketsana) 2. Pepeng (Parma)
    • P A R LINE P A R L I N E P A R L I N E P A R LINEOn September 26, shortly before noon in (around 0400 UTC), Ketsana made its landfallat the border of Aurora and Quezon provinces, packed with maximum winds of 85 km/hnear the center and gustiness of up to 100 km/h.
    • TS Ondoy brought the worst rainfall to Metro Manila among recorded typhoons sincethe start of rainfall record keeping , producing only moderate winds but hours ofextremely heavy rains. Metro Manila experienced the highest rainfall in history thatbrought heavy flooding. PAGASA documented a record-high amount of rainfall in 24 hours at 455 mm(17.9 in) recorded during September 26). And also, the amount of rainfall recordedfor six hours, which was 341.3 mm (13.44 in), was comparable to the 24 hour rainfallin 1967. SCIENCE GARDEN Greatest Daily RR = 334.5 mm ( June 7, 1967).
    • 24-Hr Rainfall at Selected Stations 24-Hr Rainfall during the 500.0 Passage of TS “Ondoy”Rainfall Amt in mm. (Sept. 24-27, 2009) 400.0 300.0 200.0 STATION NAME 24 25 26 27 100.0 IBA 15.0 8.2 103.8 40.0 PORT AREA 10.4 41.3 258.5 7.0 0.0 SUBIC BAY 6.0 50.4 127.7 55.0 IBA SUBIC BAY SCIENCE TANAY SANGLEY POINT 6.0 61.4 163.0 7.0 GARDEN SCIENCE GARDEN 1.1 94.0 455.0 6.0 Station Nam e AMBULONG T 49.5 234.5 8.0 TANAY 0.0 141.4 331.8 13.0 24-hr RR vs Normal RR for Sept. 26, 2009 at Selected Stations affected by TS "Ondoy" Rainfall in mm 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 IBA PORT AREA SCIENCE SANGLEY AMBULONG GARDEN POINT Stations 24-hr RR Normal Sept
    • Ondoy’s Fury
    • “Ondoy’s Fury”
    • TY PEPENG (Parma) Sept.30-Oct.10
    • Rainfall Associated w/ TC Passage (Pepeng)
    • Cumulative RR (Oct. 1-10, 2009) vs. October Normal RR Cumulative Rainfall (Oct. 1- 10, 2009) vs October Normal 2500 2250 TOT_OCT1-10 NOR_OCT 2000 T RR in mm. 1750 1500 Y 1250 1000 750 500 P 250 0 e T SU O G AN A AO UE Z IO RI N N A O IB C A PA UA R U AY B G G UÑ AS O AR PA AG VI HA LA U AT B B EG M AG A IT B EC AN U D G AB TU C p Stations e n STATIONS ITBAYAT TOT_OCT1-10 303.6 NOR_OCT 478.7 Extreme Rainfall (24-hr) 678.2 8-Jun-1981 Highest 106.1 Day 6-Oct-09 g BASCO 281.3 429.2 616.4 27-Oct-1991 95.0 7-Oct-09 VIGAN 1005.3 154.3 594.1 18-Jul-1920 417.3 4-Oct-09 LAOAG 843.4 143.6 564.2 4-Sep-1913 402.6 4-Oct-09 APARRI 338.6 359.5 453.1 22-Nov-1973 154.5 3-Oct-09 TUGUEGARAO 508.5 324.4 349.7 22-Nov-1973 188.7 3-Oct-09 ECHAGUE 238.2 239.6 111.9 8-Oct-09 IBA 236.7 273.7 623.7 21-Sep-1935 99.8 3-Oct-09 DAGUPAN 759.7 200.6 722.6 27-May-2003 443.5 8-Oct-09 BSU 2169.2 290.2 761.8 8-Oct-09 BAGUIO 1876.5 461.8 1085.8 4-Jul-2001 685.0 8-Oct-09 MUÑOZ 302.1 201.7 208.0 8-Oct-09 CABANATUAN 267.5 207.3 406.1 28-Jul-1952 96.2 8-Oct-09
    • Daily RR at Selected Stations in Luzon (Oct. 1-10, 2009)Stations 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Decadal Highest 24-hrITBAYAT 0.2 8.0 67.9 25.2 16.1 106.1 12.0 48.0 19.3 0.8 303.6 106.1BASCO 0.0 14.2 31.6 0.8 8.7 69.6 95.0 50.2 11.0 0.2 281.3 95.0VIGAN 0.0 31.7 168.9 417.3 126.2 75.4 68.6 111.8 5.4 0.0 1005.3 417.3LAOAG CITY 0.0 10.7 90.6 402.6 197.3 47.5 60.0 33.0 1.7 0.0 843.4 402.6APARRI 0.0 34.0 154.5 0.0 8.0 35.1 82.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 338.6 154.5TUGUEGARAO 0.0 90.3 188.7 0.0 4.8 23.5 129.7 71.5 0.0 0.0 508.5 188.7ECHAGUE 0.0 29.6 0.0 0.1 2.6 94.0 111.9 0.0 238.2 111.9IBA T 52.6 99.8 0.0 0.2 3.4 19.7 47.4 13.6 0.0 236.7 99.8DAGUPAN CITY T 25.5 159.5 8.0 T 36.2 52.0 443.5 35.0 0.0 759.7 443.5BSU 2.1 23.7 410.7 72.9 2.2 471.8 346.9 761.8 77.1 2169.2 761.8BAGUIO CITY 0.4 20.0 531.0 38.2 4.6 260.0 276.0 685.0 61.3 0.0 1876.5 685.0MUÑOZ 0.2 18.5 0.0 0.5 10.7 63.8 208.0 0.4 0.0 302.1 208.0CABANATUAN CITY 20.0 24.8 65.4 0.0 2.3 2.0 54.8 96.2 2.0 0.0 267.5 96.2
    • “Pepeng’s Fury”
    • ThankYou!!!