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  • 1. The Importanceof the World Dairy Marketto U.S. Dairy Farmers
    Peter Vitaliano
    Vice President, Economic Policy and Market Research
    National Milk Producers Federation
  • 2. Export Market Participation Important to U.S. Dairy Farmers
    Exports now represent a major segment of the commercial market for U.S.-produced milk, and it is the fastest growing market.
  • 3.
  • 4. Export Market Participation Important to U.S. Dairy Farmers
    The U.S. domestic market is a large, but mature market for dairy product sales
    The export market is growing at a rate at least eight times faster than overall growth in domestic sales
  • 5. 1.1% growth per year
    8.8% growth per year
  • 6. U.S. Dairy Sales, 2008-2009
  • 7. Export Markets Impact on Income
    The large drop in U.S. dairy exports in 2009 was the direct cause of the worst financial crisis the U.S. dairy industry has suffered in decades, if not ever
    But, it was not caused by a drop in world demand
    In fact, total world dairy imports by all other countries in 2009 were well above 2008 imports on a volume basis
  • 8. 2009 World Market Growth
    2009 dairy import volumes grew in all major product categories:
    Butter: up 7%
    Cheese: up 2%
    Skim milk powder: up 9%
    Whey and lactose: up 18%
    Whole milk powder: up 9%
    All products, milk equiv.: up 7%
  • 9. What Caused the 2009 U.S. Dairy Crisis?
    Competing exporters aggressively cut prices to maintain export sales and avoid building inventories.
  • 10.
  • 11. What Caused the 2009 U.S. Dairy Crisis?
    U.S. dairy exports did not compete aggressively in this lower-price world dairy market environment, and the U.S. suffered a major loss in export sales and a considerable drop in international market share.
  • 12.
  • 13. 2009 Export Market Shares
  • 14. Exports Drop, Inventories Build
    In 2009, the EU, New Zealand and Australia increased their exports by sharply lowering prices and avoided burdensome product inventory buildups.
    The U.S. did not.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. Effect of Exports on Milk Prices
    Even at the lower world prices of 2009, the world market as a whole would have returned more to U.S. dairy farmers than the domestic market did.
  • 18.
  • 19. Effect of Exports on Milk Prices
    During August 2009 – July 2010:
    New Zealand (Fonterra) payout: $14.40/cwt.
    U.S. Class I mover: $13.80/cwt.
  • 20. Maintaining U.S. Exports is Critical
    Due to a combination of:
    current U.S. dairy policies
    domestically-focused product standards
    generally low priority of export marketing
    U.S. dairy products are commonly “last in – first out” of world export markets.
  • 21. Maintaining U.S. Exports is Critical
    “Last In” = U.S. dairy farmers gain the least when world prices are strong
    “First Out” = U.S. dairy farmers lose the most when world prices drop
  • 22. When Exports Drop So Do Prices
  • 23. When Exports Drop So Do Prices
  • 24. Conclusion:
    The biggest threat to the milk price received by every dairy farmer in the United States is interruption of the commercial flow of U.S.-produced dairy products into the export markets
    The ¢wt Export Assistance program is the only mechanism currently available to U.S. dairy farmers to address this threat in the future.
  • 25. ¢wt and 2010 U.S. Exports
  • 26. ¢wt Impact on Milk Prices
    ¢wt export assistance has generated a substantial increase in producer prices:
    Scott Brown: $0.17/cwt in 2010
    Roger Cryan: $0.18/cwt in 2010
  • 27. ¢wt Export AssistanceReturn on Investment
    Revenue generated per dollar invested in Export Assistance
    • Bids accepted 2003 through September 30, 2010
    • 28. Includes product scheduled to ship in 2010
  • For more information on the
    ¢wt Export Assistance program
    go to www.cwt.coop.

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