Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Global Warming and the Biodiversity Crisis Derrick Anderson Benjamin Lundeen Dean...
Earth as an Ecosystem <ul><li>All of the world’s abiotic and biotic entities belong to one ecological system –  Planet Ear...
<ul><li>biocene - community of living organisms </li></ul><ul><li>biotype -  physical and chemical elements  </li></ul><ul...
How Ecosystems Change <ul><ul><li>Annual changes- Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seasonal chang...
How Ecosystems Change <ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in response to Humans </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Chemically induced...
Earth as an ecosystem <ul><li>An ecosystem is an ecological unit comprising of physical, chemical, and biological entities...
Responses <ul><li>Phenological Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Migration </li></ul><ul><li>Invasive Species </li></ul><ul><li>In...
Phenological Changes
Phenological Changes <ul><li>The relationship between climate and the timing of seasonal natural phenomena. </li></ul><ul>...
Phenological Changes <ul><li>Calling phenology in frogs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ithaca </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Six specie...
Phenological Changes <ul><li>Laying dates of first clutches in birds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>United Kingdom </li></ul></ul><...
Phenological Changes <ul><li>Aquatic systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lake, Northwestern US </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1962 t...
Migrations
Observed range Shifts <ul><li>Studies of range shifts fall into two types  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Those that infer large-sc...
Shifts at Polar Latitudes <ul><li>Broad impacts of climate change in polar regions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From range shifts...
Antarctic and Arctic migrations <ul><li>Antarctic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adelie and Emperor penguins have nearly disappeare...
Arctic Continued <ul><li>Across northern Alaska, Canada, and parts of Russia, shrubs have been expanding into the tundra a...
Northern-Hemisphere Species <ul><li>59 breeding bird species in Great Britain have shown both expansions and contractions ...
Deserts and Tropical shifts <ul><li>The Desert Orange Tip butterfly ( Colotis evagore ), which historically was confined t...
Elevation Shifts <ul><li>Since the first census in the 1940s, studies in Switzerland have indicated that alpine flora on 2...
Marine Shifts  <ul><li>Shifts in marine fish and invertebrate communities have been documented off the west coast of North...
Pest and Disease shifts <ul><li>Pest species are moving pole ward and are thriving because of higher temps and the ability...
Trees and Tree line Shifts  <ul><li>Trees and Tree lines for the most part are shifting northward  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>B...
Invasive Species
Invasive Species <ul><li>Indigenous species are decreasing  </li></ul><ul><li>Invasive species are increasing </li></ul><u...
Invasive Species <ul><li>Interactions with indigenous species </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Out-compete </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li...
Interactions
Interactions  <ul><li>Species vary in their response to climate change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Physiological tolerances </li...
Interactions  <ul><li>Predator-prey </li></ul><ul><li>Herbivore-host plant </li></ul><ul><li>Host-parasitoid </li></ul>
“ For many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through effects on synchrony with that species’ f...
Extinction
Extinctions  <ul><li>Amphibians  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Documented rapid loss of habitable climate space makes it no surpri...
Extinctions <ul><li>Tropical Coral Reefs are disappearing due to the raise in sea temps of just 1 º C above long term summ...
Evolvability and The Biodiversity Crisis
Evolvability <ul><li>Will human impacts on the earth favor the simplification of genetic diversity as we know it today, i....
The Million Dollar Question <ul><li>Is the biodiversity crisis a mass extinction event? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Well, some s...
Future of Evolutionary Processes <ul><li>Predictions about the future of life revolve around two assumptions: </li></ul><u...
The Future <ul><li>100-year prediction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ reasonably clear” with generally warmer climates, dramatic ...
Species Geographic Ranges <ul><li>Serve as great indicators of the survivability of a species following a mass extinction ...
Genetic Aspects of Risk Assessment <ul><li>Genetic drift is expected to decrease in commensals and increase in natives. </...
Genetic Assimilation <ul><li>Assimilated taxa may be able to enhance variability within a population, through interaction ...
Mutation Rates <ul><li>Mutations will rise, following: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in background mutagen concentration...
A Short Review <ul><li>With a warming climate: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in more weed and pest species, and disease ...
An open door policy isn’t always  a good thing <ul><li>What the heck is he saying: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If we leave our d...
Recommendations <ul><li>Promote efforts to reduce human population growth and resource use </li></ul><ul><li>Promote the t...
Recommendations (Cont.) <ul><li>Promote research on the relationship between genetic variability and population viability ...
The Last Recommendation <ul><li>Make a shift from saving things (cute cuddly creatures) to ultimately saving the process o...
In Preparation Thoughts <ul><li>Education, education, education; ultimately getting a strong ‘majority’ of the public and ...
Why this is hard <ul><li>“ As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including ...
A Different Answer “ Sooner or later disasters such as an asteroid collision or a nuclear war could wipe us all out, and w...
Discussion <ul><li>Where does ethics fit into this discussion or should we apply ethical thinking to this situation? </li>...
Resources Used <ul><li>Woodruff, David S.  2001.  Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution.  “The Future ...
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Ecological Effects

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  • A great deal of research has been done in this area because of agriculture.
  • A great deal of research has been done in this area because of agriculture.
  • A great deal of research has been done in this area because of agriculture.
  • A great deal of research has been done in this area because of agriculture.
  • When considering the previously discussed topics (phenology, migration, invasive species, extinction) we have seen several examples of how species are responding and that not all species are responding the same.
  • Ecological Effects

    1. 1. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Global Warming and the Biodiversity Crisis Derrick Anderson Benjamin Lundeen Deanna Martinez Jaime Slye
    2. 2. Earth as an Ecosystem <ul><li>All of the world’s abiotic and biotic entities belong to one ecological system – Planet Earth. </li></ul><ul><li>One change in one location has the potential to affect the rest of this ecological system </li></ul>
    3. 3. <ul><li>biocene - community of living organisms </li></ul><ul><li>biotype - physical and chemical elements </li></ul><ul><li>Sizes – micro (a tree log in a stream) to macro (the stream and surrounding landscape) to regional (watershed) to continental to global. The scale chosen is directly related to the specific area of study. </li></ul>Levels of Ecosystems
    4. 4. How Ecosystems Change <ul><ul><li>Annual changes- Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seasonal changes – temperature, rainfall, sunlight </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Natural changes - hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, tsunami, fires, floods </li></ul></ul>
    5. 5. How Ecosystems Change <ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in response to Humans </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Chemically induced change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Physically induced change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in number and strength of natural disasters </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Fires and flooding due to landscape alterations </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hurricanes due to ocean water warming </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Sometimes irreversible </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Earth as an ecosystem <ul><li>An ecosystem is an ecological unit comprising of physical, chemical, and biological entities interacting in such a way that nothing is wasted – if left alone. </li></ul><ul><li>Natural and seasonal changes take place, altering the ecosystem in a non-deleterious way </li></ul>
    7. 7. Responses <ul><li>Phenological Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Migration </li></ul><ul><li>Invasive Species </li></ul><ul><li>Interactions </li></ul><ul><li>Extinction </li></ul><ul><li>Evolvability and the biodiversity crisis </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion </li></ul>
    8. 8. Phenological Changes
    9. 9. Phenological Changes <ul><li>The relationship between climate and the timing of seasonal natural phenomena. </li></ul><ul><li>Temperature rise greatest at northern latitudes </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Longer growing season </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased photosynthetic activity </li></ul></ul>
    10. 10. Phenological Changes <ul><li>Calling phenology in frogs </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ithaca </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Six species </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>100 years </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>10-13-day advance with a 1.0-2.3 °C increase </li></ul></ul>
    11. 11. Phenological Changes <ul><li>Laying dates of first clutches in birds </li></ul><ul><ul><li>United Kingdom </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>65 species </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Advanced by an average of 8.8 days </li></ul></ul>
    12. 12. Phenological Changes <ul><li>Aquatic systems </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lake, Northwestern US </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>1962 to 2002 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Phytoplankton bloom advanced by 19 days </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Zooplankton peak more varied </li></ul></ul>
    13. 13. Migrations
    14. 14. Observed range Shifts <ul><li>Studies of range shifts fall into two types </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Those that infer large-scale range shifts in their range boundary (regional) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Those that infer range shifts from changes in species composition (community) </li></ul></ul>
    15. 15. Shifts at Polar Latitudes <ul><li>Broad impacts of climate change in polar regions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>From range shifts to community restructuring and ecosystem function </li></ul></ul>
    16. 16. Antarctic and Arctic migrations <ul><li>Antarctic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adelie and Emperor penguins have nearly disappeared from their northern most sites around Antarctica since 1970.These birds are moving southward due to melting at the caps </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Arctic </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nearly every Arctic ecosystem shows marked shifts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Diatom and invertebrate assemblages in Arctic lakes have shown huge species’ turnover, shifting away from benthic species toward more planktonic and warm-water associated communities. </li></ul></ul>
    17. 17. Arctic Continued <ul><li>Across northern Alaska, Canada, and parts of Russia, shrubs have been expanding into the tundra areas </li></ul><ul><li>This is linked to warming temperatures, increased snow cover, and increased soil microbial activity. </li></ul><ul><li>Polar bears have suffered significant population declines at opposite geographic boundaries. They are declining in numbers and mean body weight. Climate change has caused longer ice-free periods, during which the bears starve and are forced to live on reserves because the ice shelf is necessary for feeding </li></ul>
    18. 18. Northern-Hemisphere Species <ul><li>59 breeding bird species in Great Britain have shown both expansions and contractions of northern range boundaries </li></ul><ul><li>Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) have undergone an expansion of northern boundaries in Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Studies indicate that 37 species of resident Odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) in the U.K. have expanded their northern range between 1960-1995 </li></ul><ul><li>Scientists studying Yosemite National Park's found that several animal species have moved to higher altitudes </li></ul><ul><li>“ An uphill migration possibly spawned by the grinding effects of global warming on one of the nation's most protected wildernesses”. </li></ul>
    19. 19. Deserts and Tropical shifts <ul><li>The Desert Orange Tip butterfly ( Colotis evagore ), which historically was confined to northern Africa, has established resident populations in Spain while still maintaining the ecological niche </li></ul><ul><li>For maturity, this butterfly needs >164 days above 12 º C to sustain life </li></ul><ul><li>The Hummingbird has undergone a dramatic shift in its winter range. Thirty years ago wintered mainly in Mexico. </li></ul><ul><li>Now along the Gulf coast of the United States more than a thousand have been sighted in 1998 and it was recorded that they had moved 400 km inland in the past 30 years. </li></ul>
    20. 20. Elevation Shifts <ul><li>Since the first census in the 1940s, studies in Switzerland have indicated that alpine flora on 26 mountains have shown higher altitudinal shifts </li></ul>
    21. 21. Marine Shifts <ul><li>Shifts in marine fish and invertebrate communities have been documented off the west coast of North America and the U.K. </li></ul><ul><li>In these regions warm water fish are becoming over-abundant and cool water fish are shifting poleward, from their southern habitats </li></ul>
    22. 22. Pest and Disease shifts <ul><li>Pest species are moving pole ward and are thriving because of higher temps and the ability to reproduce more and faster </li></ul><ul><li>For example: Rocky Mountains Pine beetles have changed there life cycles from two years to just one year. </li></ul><ul><li>These changes have also effected human disease incidence and transmission </li></ul><ul><li>In Sweden, researchers have document marked increases in diseases transmitted by ticks between 22% - 44% in some regions </li></ul>
    23. 23. Trees and Tree line Shifts <ul><li>Trees and Tree lines for the most part are shifting northward </li></ul><ul><ul><li>But in some areas, global warming has caused arid areas like in the desert southwest to have increased rainfall, causing trees to become more abundant. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ultimately, changing the dynamics and composition of deserts and the species that inhabit them, will this lead to more migration? </li></ul></ul>
    24. 24. Invasive Species
    25. 25. Invasive Species <ul><li>Indigenous species are decreasing </li></ul><ul><li>Invasive species are increasing </li></ul><ul><li>NISIC Definition: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Non-native </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Introduction causes economic or environmental harm or harm to human health </li></ul></ul>
    26. 26. Invasive Species <ul><li>Interactions with indigenous species </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Out-compete </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pathogens </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Pests/parasites </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Decrease diversity </li></ul><ul><li>Loss of productivity and resources </li></ul><ul><li>42% of the species on the threatened or endangered species lists </li></ul>
    27. 27. Interactions
    28. 28. Interactions <ul><li>Species vary in their response to climate change </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Physiological tolerances </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Life-history strategies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Extinctions / colonizations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dispersal ability </li></ul></ul>
    29. 29. Interactions <ul><li>Predator-prey </li></ul><ul><li>Herbivore-host plant </li></ul><ul><li>Host-parasitoid </li></ul>
    30. 30. “ For many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through effects on synchrony with that species’ food and habitat resources.”
    31. 31. Extinction
    32. 32. Extinctions <ul><li>Amphibians </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Documented rapid loss of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinction of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain restricted species </li></ul></ul><ul><li>In Costa Rica cloud-forest-dependant amphibians have declined or gone extinct </li></ul><ul><li>Central and South America has seen a 67% decline of the Harlequin frogs in the past 20-30 years </li></ul>
    33. 33. Extinctions <ul><li>Tropical Coral Reefs are disappearing due to the raise in sea temps of just 1 º C above long term summer averages, leading to their bleaching. </li></ul><ul><li>El Nino 1997-1998 caused 95% of corals bleaching in the Indian Ocean, resulting in 16% of corals going extinct globally. </li></ul><ul><li>These reefs are effected by the CO 2 levels in the atmosphere which alters the ocean’s pH. </li></ul><ul><li>Reports suggest if this keeps happening by 2050 the oceans maybe be too acidic for the corals to survive in. </li></ul><ul><li>These extinctions also indicate a correlation to the increase in endangered species </li></ul>
    34. 34. Evolvability and The Biodiversity Crisis
    35. 35. Evolvability <ul><li>Will human impacts on the earth favor the simplification of genetic diversity as we know it today, i.e. is the biodiversity crisis real? </li></ul>
    36. 36. The Million Dollar Question <ul><li>Is the biodiversity crisis a mass extinction event? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Well, some say yes and others say no, why? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Polls indicate that 70% of biologists believe that mass extinction was underway and that 20% of all species will go extinct in the next 30 years (1998 Harris Poll, Washington Post ). </li></ul>
    37. 37. Future of Evolutionary Processes <ul><li>Predictions about the future of life revolve around two assumptions: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The first concerns human population and its impact on the ecosystem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The second on the consumption of natural resources </li></ul></ul><ul><li>With historical data, we are able to project out to 100-years with relative clarity and 1000-years there is too much speculation </li></ul><ul><li>So what does it look like? </li></ul>
    38. 38. The Future <ul><li>100-year prediction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ reasonably clear” with generally warmer climates, dramatic decreases in species diversity, larger habitat fragments, and a large loss in species variability (evolvability). </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Why is it reasonably clear? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>1000-year prediction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Too speculative to print </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Indicating what? </li></ul></ul></ul>“ there was serious concern about the ability of biodiversity to bounce back given the current prospects for tropical forests, wetlands, and coral reefs”
    39. 39. Species Geographic Ranges <ul><li>Serve as great indicators of the survivability of a species following a mass extinction event </li></ul><ul><li>Historically, species have moved to combat ecosystem changes, rather than adapted, but if the climate continues to change, humans continue to consume and impacts fragment more habitats, what will happen; if anything? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Decrease in genetic variability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in aggressive commensal species </li></ul></ul><ul><li>THE INVASION BEGINS </li></ul>
    40. 40. Genetic Aspects of Risk Assessment <ul><li>Genetic drift is expected to decrease in commensals and increase in natives. </li></ul><ul><li>The most affected populations will be recently isolated, small populations of natives by genetic erosion </li></ul><ul><li>Genetic variation studies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Allows for surveys of genetic and demographic information, and their interactions, which may indicate the viability of a fragmented population. Before this concept, genetics was a after thought! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Isolated populations also face fragmentation by inbreeding which is caused by human consumption, and results in a human responsibility instead of nature’s responsibility - a Minnesota story </li></ul>
    41. 41. Genetic Assimilation <ul><li>Assimilated taxa may be able to enhance variability within a population, through interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Increases in variability do not necessarily mean that there will be increases in evolvability </li></ul><ul><li>Is it better to save a single “generic” taxon or several separate subspecies? </li></ul><ul><li>Which is the ‘best’ area for conserving species, small islands or a large body of land. </li></ul>
    42. 42. Mutation Rates <ul><li>Mutations will rise, following: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in background mutagen concentrations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in UV-B (due to ozone depletion) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in nuclear waste storage </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Some say, even if mutations do not increase the viability of populations will become increasingly compromised. How? </li></ul><ul><li>Maybe we need to change our thinking about these problems!?! </li></ul>
    43. 43. A Short Review <ul><li>With a warming climate: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in more weed and pest species, and disease outbreaks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in nutrient cycles due to anthropogenic effects on essential microbes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Where has all the energy gone? </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Altered and increased migrations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increases in extinctions </li></ul></ul>
    44. 44. An open door policy isn’t always a good thing <ul><li>What the heck is he saying: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>If we leave our doors open to these changes, then we will drastically change the evolution of our ecosystem. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Ecosystems will become more easily invaded and disturbed, and the species, genera, family, and phyla that are there will ultimately feel a magnified effect of these changes. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evolution will still happen, but maybe in the wrong places </li></ul></ul>
    45. 45. Recommendations <ul><li>Promote efforts to reduce human population growth and resource use </li></ul><ul><li>Promote the teaching of ecology and evolutionary biology at all levels </li></ul><ul><li>Promote efforts to complete a rapid inventory of the planet’s biota, complete this in 20 years not 600 </li></ul><ul><li>Promote research on landscape and seascape levels </li></ul><ul><li>Foster research on the predictive use of the fossil record </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“evolution is a hierarchical process that cannot be predicted beyond some crude estimates </li></ul></ul>
    46. 46. Recommendations (Cont.) <ul><li>Promote research on the relationship between genetic variability and population viability and ultimately evolvability </li></ul><ul><li>Promote research on genetic control of pests and their vectors to diminish their importance in disturbed ecosystems and improve the human condition </li></ul><ul><li>Promote the development of a global system of nature reserves, especially in the tropics, in conjunction with IUCN </li></ul><ul><li>Promote political changes in regulations of protected areas </li></ul>
    47. 47. The Last Recommendation <ul><li>Make a shift from saving things (cute cuddly creatures) to ultimately saving the process of evolution itself. This will allow us to cost-effectively conserve nature </li></ul>
    48. 48. In Preparation Thoughts <ul><li>Education, education, education; ultimately getting a strong ‘majority’ of the public and politicians on board with the ideas and problems that surround these issues. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Make it clear that changes are happening, and make people aware that something needs to rapidly be done; send the message that we are not ‘crying wolf’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Increase omissions standards and eco-economical business practices; or punishment </li></ul><ul><li>Stop answering the ‘easy’ questions and start working on the ‘hard’ one. </li></ul>
    49. 49. Why this is hard <ul><li>“ As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.” -2001 </li></ul><ul><li>“ Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant” </li></ul><ul><li>-November 2006 </li></ul>
    50. 50. A Different Answer “ Sooner or later disasters such as an asteroid collision or a nuclear war could wipe us all out, and we need to make the move to other planets&quot; -Stephen Hawkings November 30th, 2006, B.B.C.
    51. 51. Discussion <ul><li>Where does ethics fit into this discussion or should we apply ethical thinking to this situation? </li></ul><ul><li>What is the major take home message from these articles? </li></ul><ul><li>What are your views about the process of global warming and evolutionary changes as a result of it, and do you think that this is one argument that needs agreement among all entities of science, Business, English, Art, etc?? </li></ul>
    52. 52. Resources Used <ul><li>Woodruff, David S. 2001. Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution. “The Future of Evolution” Colloquium. March 16-20, 2000. </li></ul><ul><li>Parmesan, Camille. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. ( 36 ) 637-669. </li></ul>

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