What's in Your Horizon?

Slide 1: What’s on Your Horizon? Process, Technologies, and Impact of the 2007 Horizon Report Alan Levine, NMC Bryan Alexander, NITLE Cyprien Lomas, UBC Spring 2007 CNI Task Force Meeting | Phoenix, AZ

Slide 2: creative commons licensed flickr photo by kk+ Perils of Predicting the Future

Slide 3: creative commons licensed flickr photo by inocuo R&D in Educational Technology

Slide 4: creative commons licensed flickr photo by cogdogblog Visionary Perspective

Slide 5: "A Strategy for Organizational Fitness," 1991 "Toward High-Performance Organizations", 1992 Englebart’s Organizational Layers

Slide 6: creative commons licensed flickr photo by wondrous22 Looking at the Horizon

Slide 7: creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy Not About Being “Right”

Slide 8: creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy Time to Adoption != Time To Viable

Slide 9: Horizon Project Advisory Board

Slide 10: the process research dialog

Slide 11: • the environment of higher education is changing rapidly • increasing globalization is changing the way we work, collaborate, and communicate • information literacy increasingly should not be considered a given trends • academic review and faculty rewards are increasingly out of sync with new forms of scholarship • the notions of collective intelligence and mass amateurization are pushing the boundaries of scholarship • students’ views of what is and what is not technology are increasingly different from those of faculty

Slide 12: • how to assess new forms of work • how to navigate changes in scholarship, research, creative expression, and learning • intellectual property and copyright continue to affect how scholarly work is done • skills gap between understanding how challenges to use tools for media creation and how to create meaningful content • renewed emphasis on collaborative learning pushes the educational community to develop new forms of interaction and assessment • growing expectation for higher education to deliver services, content and media to mobile and personal devices

Slide 13: Sandbox: Less Than One Year Horizon Web 2.0 & Social Software Audience response Portable Apps Lecture capture Flash Video Format Wikis CollaborationProject Management Tools Online Tools Online CommunicationDIGITAL "AIR" Tools Shibboleth Multimedia Production Tools Classroom communication systems Presentation technology Content Mapping Tools PODCASTING HTML Templates & Portfolios Learning Management Systems Social Networking Tools Automated Lecture Capture Data Visualization Tools Image-rich communications Show Me the Content Comparative Image Easily Accessible Projection Systems displays Mechanical Turk Moore's Law of Mobile Computers Grid Computing Geographic Games Mobile/ Education Relationship Visualization Targeted Marketing RSS and Syndication Tools Universal Design for Learning Audio Capture/Distribution Tools Group Collaboration Software Portal Technologies creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Pervasive Campus Wireless Personal Authoring Systems Mashups E-Portfolios More Training & Release Time Funnel Process Textbooks 2.0 Digital Space

Slide 14: Sandbox: Two to Three Year Horizon Gaming Teleconferencing, video conferencing, video chat Video via broadband Tablet PCs Social networking Audio Books Miniaturization Mainstream gaming platforms Use of public datasets Personal broadcasting Academic Publishing 2.0 Better interface design Going to the Source Personalized computing Portable Devices Cognitive tools Trusted Reference Sources Peer-to-peer filesharing Video & audio sharing IPTV Gaming to learn High Definition Video Google AdWords Personal Broadcasting Social bookmarking Specialized media tools multiplayer environments Video Blogs Audience Created Content Skype, IM, synchronized communication tools Non-Linear Narrative Recommendation Systems Specialized Media Tools YouTube for College Web-based Productivity Apps creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Digital Asset Management Social Network Service Video Precise Physical Tracking / Remote instrumentation Funnel Process Message Boards

Slide 15: Sandbox: Four to Five Year Horizon eBooks Mobile devices on steroids Ubiquitous computing and telephony Information searching technologiesimmersion experiences 3d shared VR simulations Personal Learning Environments Remote Labs Social Community sites User preference engines Synthetic/Virtual Worlds Ubiquitous broadband Semantic Web Tagging/folksonomy Bio security systems Geo-aware computing Google Books Text comprehension and abstracting system Geo-aware social Media Rich Social Network Tools Wi-Max for cell phones Social Bookmarking Digital Notetaking applications Wearable computing Virtual Meeting Software Narrative Presentation Technologies Collaborative Next generation search tools Nokia Lifeblog Writing / Editing Ad Hoc Networks Browser-based applications Context and location aware technologies Smartboard technologies Web 2.0 technologies 3G (and beyond) Mobile phones 2-D and Person-Computer Interfacing Video & audio sharing 3-D Videogames as learning platforms visualization tools Pervasive Broadband and Wireless creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Internet-wide User- Implanted technologies centric Identity Systems Real-Time Language Funnel Process Robust Transcribing and Captioning tools Translation Intelligent Tutoring

Slide 16:  Less Than One Year  Online Collaboration: Easy, Accessible, and Virtually Free  User Content: It’s All about the Audience  The Reason They Log On  Can You Hear Me Now? The Resurgence of Audio  Two to Three Years  Your Phone: The Gateway to Your Digital Life  The New Video is Smaller than You Think  Virtual Worlds, Real Opportunity  Mapping Goes Mainstream: It’s Not What You Know, It’s Where You Know  Four to Five Years  The New Scholarship and Emerging Forms of Publication  Massively Multiplayer Educational Gaming  Personal Learning Environments  Internet-Wide User-Centric Identity Systems The Short List

Slide 17: topics

Slide 18: user-created content From classifying and tagging to creating and uploading, today’s “audience” is very much in control of the content we find online. This active audience is finding new ways to contribute, communicate, and collaborate, using a variety of small and easy tools that put the power to develop and catalog the Internet into the hands of the people. The largest and fastest growing websites on the Internet are all making use of this approach, which is redefining how we think about the web and how it might be applied to learning. ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)

Slide 19: The expectation that a website will remember the user is well established. Social networking social takes this several steps further; the website knows who the networking user’s friends are, and may also know people that the user would like to meet or things the user would like to do. Even beyond that, social networking sites facilitate introduction and communication by providing a space for people to connect around a topic of common interest. These sites are fundamentally about community —communities of practice as well as social communities. ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)

Slide 20: The convergence of ubiquitous broadband, portable devices, and tiny computers has changed our concept of what a phone is meant to be. A pocket-sized connection to the digital world, the mobile phone keeps us in touch with our families, friends, and colleagues by more than just voice. Our phones are address books, file storage devices, cameras, video recorders, way- finders, and hand-held portals to the Internet—and they don’t stop there. The ubiquity of mobile phones, mobile phones combined with their many cap- abilities, makes them an ideal platform for educational content and activities. We are only just beginning to take advantage of the possibilities they will offer. ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)

Slide 21: In the last year, interest in virtual worlds has grown considerably, fueled in no small part by the tremendous press coverage of examples like Second Life. Campuses and businesses have established locations in these worlds in much the same way they were creating websites a dozen years ago. In the same way that the number and sophistication of websites grew very quickly as more people began to browse, virtual locations will become more common and more mature as the trend continues. Virtual worlds offer flexible spaces for learning and exploration—educational use of these spaces is already underway and growing. virtual worlds ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)

Slide 22: new scholarship & emerging forms of publication The time-honored activities of academic research and scholarly activity have benefited from the explosion of access to research materials and the ability to collaborate at a distance. At the same time, the processes of research, review, publication, and tenure are challenged by the same trends. The proliferation of audience-generated content combined with open-access content models is changing the way we think about scholarship and publication—and the way these activities are conducted. ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS)

Slide 23: The term “serious games” has massively multiplayer been coined to describe games that have an educational purpose educational gaming and non-entertainment goals. Educators are taking a hard look at one type of serious game, massively multiplayer educational games, and finding strong po- tential for teaching and learning. These games are still time- consuming and often expensive to produce, but practical examples can easily be found. Interest is high and developments in the open-source arena are bringing them closer to mainstream adoption year by year. ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS)

Slide 24: Creative commons licensed flickr photo by Gavin Mackintosh Differing Horizons- Edgy Enough?

Slide 25: Creative commons licensed flickr photo by vaxZine Blogosphere Reaction

Slide 26: I was a bit nonplussed by its choice of technologies… that the technologies and modes identified in this years’ list have already achieved significant impact. There is one self-evident conclusion to draw from this. This year’s Horizon Report is not futurology: it is history.  The Perils of Stargazing (Catherine Howell)  Technorati links Heard Around the Blogs

Slide 27: Yes it's another 'future trends' article, but I like what seems to be (when compared to all the gee-whiz homages to 2L and mobile web we've been seeing) an almost contrarian set of "opportunity areas" - and a list that is surprisingly in accord with my own thinking… It's that it's a list that stridently follows the waves, even when there's nothing really there. • Tomorrow, and Tomorrow, and Tomorrow (Stephen Downes) • Technorati links Heard Around the Blogs

Slide 28: What was fascinating (and maybe a bit frustrating, but in a good way) about the process was how we went from these sprawling lists down to a list of 6 that actually seem to bear some resemblance to conceivable futures, not ‘wished for’ futures, not ‘if only everyone would listen to me’ futures, but ones that bear some resemblance to where these slow moving beasts called post-secondary institutions will get to. • On the Perils of Stargazing (Scott Leslie) • Technorati links Heard Around the Blogs

Slide 29:  NERCOMP presentation  EDUCAUSE / ELI  Penn State TLT Podcast  Bringing to Your Campus  Aggregating Campus Findings? Campus Perspectives

Slide 30: http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Research_Agenda Research Agenda

Slide 31: horizonproject.wikispaces.com K-12 Horizon Project

Slide 32: group discussion

Slide 33: www.nmc.org/horizon www.educause.edu/eli © 2007 The New Media Consortium. This work is the intellectual property of the author(s). Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the author.