SLR Vulnerability and Adaptation

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Presented at the fall 2010 meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco, CA.

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SLR Vulnerability and Adaptation

  1. 1. Nicole Russell Ph.D. Student Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences Gary Griggs Director Institute of Marine Sciences University of California Santa Cruz
  2. 2. <ul><li>Coastal counties: 24% of CA’s area but home to 80% of Californians </li></ul><ul><li>~35 million visitors/yr and $23 billion/yr </li></ul>Malibu, CA
  3. 3. <ul><li>OPC has adopted 10-17 inch rise by 2050 & 40-55 inch rise by 2100 </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>Current global rate: ~2-3 mm/yr </li></ul><ul><li>Rate may be increasing </li></ul><ul><li>Besides, local rates matter most </li></ul>
  5. 5. Alaska <ul><li>4.24 ft/100 yrs </li></ul><ul><li>(-12.92 mm/yr) </li></ul>noaa.gov Louisiana + 3.03 ft/100 yrs (+ 9.24 mm/yr)
  6. 6. California + 0.66 ft/100 yrs (+ 2.01 mm/yr)
  7. 8. <ul><li>Inundation of low-lying areas </li></ul>Main Beach, Santa Cruz 2008 Lynne Harden
  8. 9. <ul><li>Passive erosion </li></ul>Projection: 3 foot sea level rise by 2100
  9. 10. <ul><li>Inundation: we’ve seen it before… </li></ul>Mission Beach, San Diego Winter 1988
  10. 11. San Francisco Airport with 16 inches of sea level rise
  11. 12. <ul><li>Increased cliff erosion </li></ul>Antigua Apartments Depot Hill (www.Californiacoastllne.org)
  12. 13. Pacifica 2010
  13. 14. <ul><li>Storm damage </li></ul>Pacifica 1998
  14. 15. <ul><li>Santa Cruz Boardwalk, 1926 El Niño </li></ul>
  15. 16. <ul><li>Boardwalk during 1997-98 El Ni ñ o </li></ul>
  16. 17. <ul><li>Every community has a unique geographic setting and people </li></ul><ul><li>Planning officials must understand local vulnerabilities in order to form appropriate adaptation strategies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Well-documented disconnect between science and practice </li></ul></ul>
  17. 18. <ul><li>Improve transfer of relevant information from scientists to decision-makers </li></ul><ul><li>i.e. local SLR  flood levels  new flood hazard maps; </li></ul><ul><li>coastal cliff retreat  setbacks </li></ul>Plan Santa Barbara Draft Environmental Impact Report
  18. 19. <ul><li>Perform SLR vulnerability assessments for two specific coastal communities in order to identify: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Range of hazards </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Types of information needed for assessing vulnerability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Range of available adaptation approaches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Recommended adaptation strategies </li></ul></ul>
  19. 20. <ul><li>Create a guide for developing local mitigation plans </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Vulnerability assessments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Risk-based </li></ul></ul></ul>Santa Cruz City Climate Adaptation Plan
  20. 21. <ul><li>SLR adaptation plans for Santa Cruz and Santa Barbara, CA </li></ul><ul><li>Guide available to all of California’s coastal communities </li></ul>Santa Barbara County, CA
  21. 22. <ul><li>California Energy Commission (PIER Program) </li></ul><ul><li>Cities of Santa Cruz and Santa Barbara, CA </li></ul>

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