NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 13 Pirani

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A look at a framework within which coastal communities can plan for resilience.

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  • Wind action is a hazard whether or not a storm makes landfall
  • Hurricane Sandy left us with devastated communities
  • Coastal and inland flooding are of concern
  • Source: http://tiles.mapbox.com/zingbot/map/map-ojrkx8yh#13.43/40.6200/-73.7675Significant areas of Staten Island, Long Island, and Queens were flooded. This shows that areas such as Far Rockaway, Arverne experienced both coastal and inland flooding due to the Hurricane Sandy. Critical infrastructure, including JFK Airport, were also impacted.Estimated $60.4-$82 billion in damageOver 100 fatalities reportedOver 8 million homes lost powerDiameter of storm 820 milesGas Rationing in NYC for 15 days; Gas rationing in NJ for 12 days
  • With every storm a performance metric for politicians and businesses, we need to build resiliency in urban design, infrastructure, policy, and communityFloating basements helped deal with seasonal flooding in 18th century Holland What are the regional equivalents for coastal and inland flooding, heat waves, power disruptions are other consequences of climate change.
  • Stats: 286 square miles of land added to the 100-year floodplain zone, almost doubling (96%) the existing zone along the coastline.285,000 more people in the new zone (a 104% increase).118,000 more households (a 96% increase).
  • NJ Future Redevelopment Forum 13 Pirani

    1. 1. Weathering the ImpactsRobert PiraniVice President for Energy and EnvironmentRegional Plan Association 1
    2. 2. Hurricane Sandy
    3. 3. Resiliency:The capacity of asystem tomaintain itspurpose andintegrity in theface of changingcircumstance.
    4. 4. Coastal Zone Adaptation StrategiesRegionalNeighborhoodSite Retreat
    5. 5. HUD SCI Livability Principles1. Provide more transportation choices.2. Promote equitable, affordable housing.3. Enhance economic competitiveness.4. Support existing communities.5. Coordinate policies and leverage investment.6. Value communities and neighborhoods.
    6. 6. Climate Uncertainty 10
    7. 7. FEMAPredictedExtent of100 – YearStorm Event
    8. 8. ActualExtent ofHurricaneSandyStorm Surge
    9. 9. Monthly Maximum Water Levels at the Battery 15 14 Sandy North American Vertical Datum 1988 (feet) 13 12 9:24 PM – Manhattan Battery 11 Previous • 13.88 feet 10 Record December Hurricane Mean Lower Low Water March 1962 1992 Irene 9 • 11.10 feet 8 North American Vertical Datum 1988 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Monthly High Water 0 -1 -2 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 YearsCourtesy AECOM
    10. 10. Market Uncertainty 14
    11. 11. OverAge65inSandyInundationArea25.0% New York New Jersey20.0% Connecticut15.0%10.0% 5.0% 0.0%
    12. 12. Jobs in Hurricane Sandy Inundation Area120,000100,000 New York 80,000 New Jersey 60,000 Connecticut 40,000 20,000 0
    13. 13. New Advisory Base Flood Elevations People and Homes in Existing and New 100-year Floodplain600,000400,000 Additional in New ABFE Designation In Existing 100-year200,000 Floodplain Population Household
    14. 14. Government Uncertainty 18
    15. 15. Decision-Makers• FEMA • State of NY • Joint Field Office• HUD • State of NJ • Inter-Agency Task Forces• DHS • State of CT • Rebuilding Task Force• USDA • Municipalities • NYS2100 • Senate• USDOT Bipartisan Task Force• NOAA • Housing Recovery• SBA Office• FWS
    16. 16. Funding for Hazard Mitigation and Rebuilding Federal Transit Administration Army Corps of Engineers Community Development Block Grant EPA Grants NOAA Other
    17. 17. Addressing Uncertainty 21
    18. 18. Scenario Planning
    19. 19. ConstantsFactors that are unlikely to changesubstantially between now and 2035.•Demographic Trends•Climate Change•Aging Coastal Infrastructure
    20. 20. TrendsDriving forces or long term trends thatcontribute to change in each scenario.•Coastal Storms•Regional Economic Growth
    21. 21. AgentsThe prime movers, decision-makers, oragents of change within a scenario.•Local Residents and Businesses•Financial and Insurance Sector•Government
    22. 22. UncertaintiesFactors that could significantly impacthow alternative futures actually unfold.•Frequency and Severity of Coastal Storms•Community and Market Response•Government Response
    23. 23. Addressing Uncertainty 27
    24. 24. Criteria for Evaluation•Resilient•Redundant•Robust•Regional 28
    25. 25. Weathering the ImpactsRobert PiraniVice President for Energy and EnvironmentRegional Plan Association 29

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