NJUA Andrews

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Presentation on reinvestment in New Jersey infrastructure.

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NJUA Andrews

  1. 1. What’s Comingfor New Jersey UtilitiesClinton J Andrews
  2. 2. Is demography destiny?New Jersey population projections678910111990 2000 2010 2020 2030Population(millions)MillionsYearLinear RegressionHistorical MigrationEconomic-DemographicZero MigrationHistorylwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/dmograph/lfproj/sptab1.htmDemography is only oneof the influential factors
  3. 3. Is mission to satisfy demand?Infrastructure Investment Challenge0200004000060000800001000001200001400001600001800002000002010 2020 2030 2040 2050YearCapacitySupplyDemandShortfallExcessCapacityMission is to balancesupply & demand
  4. 4. TraditionalInfrastructurePlanningSatisfy demand cost-effectivelySelect large, centralized solutions1. Does current supply = demand?2. Any supply capacity to be retired?3. Forecast future demand?4. New supply capacity needed?5. Which supply type?6. How finance?7. Where site new facilities?Does this approachstill make sense?
  5. 5. Demand growth for some NJ utilities-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.21960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20103 per. Mov. Avg.(Natural Gas)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Electricity)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Potable Water)www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.cfm?sid=NJ#CompleteDataFile www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/trends/pdfs/watersupply.pdf
  6. 6. Demand growth for some NJ utilities-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.21960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20103 per. Mov. Avg.(Natural Gas)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Electricity)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Potable Water)www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.cfm?sid=NJ#CompleteDataFile www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/trends/pdfs/watersupply.pdf
  7. 7. Demand growth for some NJ utilities-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.21960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20103 per. Mov. Avg.(Natural Gas)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Electricity)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Potable Water)www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.cfm?sid=NJ#CompleteDataFile www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/trends/pdfs/watersupply.pdf
  8. 8. U.S. electricity demand growth (%)-2024681012141950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20403-year moving averageTrendlinewww.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/MT_electric.cfm#growth_elec
  9. 9. Implications• Reinvestment notgrowth– Take advantage oftechnological change• Rebalance portfolios– Need some criteria• Restructure valuechains– Add value
  10. 10. Scale vs Efficiency• Demand = Population x Services x Efficiency= Population x (Technology/Person) x(Demand/Technology)• Supply = Sites x Capacity x Efficiency= Sites x (Technology/Site) x (Supply/Technology)
  11. 11. Electricity from CoalEfficiency vs Production Environmental ImpactDahmus, G.E.(2007) Applications of Industrial Ecology: Manufacturing, Recycling, and Efficiency, Ph.D. dissertation in MechanicalEngineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology., Cambridge, MA.
  12. 12. RefrigerationEfficiency vs Production Environmental ImpactDahmus, G.E.(2007) Applications of Industrial Ecology: Manufacturing, Recycling, and Efficiency, Ph.D. dissertation in MechanicalEngineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology., Cambridge, MA.
  13. 13. Embrace technological changes• Smarter grid• Distributed generation• Efficient enduses, smarter buildings• DC’s re-emergence• Electrification oftransportation• Cheaper natural gas(due to extractiontechnology)www.nest.com www.automobilemag.com/green/reviews/0911_2009_tesla_roadster_electric_car
  14. 14. For more information…policy.rutgers.edu/faculty/andrews
  15. 15. BACKUP SLIDES
  16. 16. Demand growth for some NJ utilities-0.1-0.0500.050.10.150.21960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20103 per. Mov. Avg.(Natural Gas)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Electricity)3 per. Mov. Avg.(Potable Water)www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.cfm?sid=NJ#CompleteDataFile www.nj.gov/dep/dsr/trends/pdfs/watersupply.pdf
  17. 17. U.S energy use per capita and perconstant dollar of GDP (1980 = 1.0)-0.200.400.600.801.001.201980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Per capitaPer dollarwww.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/MT_energydemand.cfm#declines

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