NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman

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NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman

  1. 1. Lending and Foreclosure in NJ Kathe Newman, Associate Professor and Director with Margaret Ricke,Research Associate Ralph W. Voorhees Center for Civic Engagement Urban Planning and Policy Development Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy Rutgers University March 2013Tuesday, March 5, 13
  2. 2. Tuesday, March 5, 13
  3. 3. SUSSEX High-Cost Home Mortgage Originations PASSAIC New Jersey, 2005-2006 BERGEN MORRIS WARREN ESSEX HUDSON UNION Share of High-Cost Loans by Census Tract HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX SOMERSET Less than 10% 10% to 25% MERCER MONMOUTH 25% to 50% BURLINGTON Greater than 50% CAMDEN NJ Counties GLOUCESTER OCEAN SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: FFIEC, Home Mortgage Disclosure Act New Jersey Geographic Information Network 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  4. 4. Foreclosure StartsTuesday, March 5, 13
  5. 5. Consumers with New Foreclosures 2003-Q3 2012 1.00# New NJ# Jersey 0.25# 0.90# 0.20# 0.15# 0.80# AZ# 0.10# 0.70# CA# 0.05# FL# 0.60# IL# 0.00# MI# 03:Q1# 04:Q1# 05:Q1# 06:Q1# 07:Q1# 08:Q1# 09:Q1# 10:Q1# 11:Q1# 12:Q1# 03:Q2# 03:Q3# 03:Q4# 04:Q2# 04:Q3# 04:Q4# 05:Q2# 05:Q3# 05:Q4# 06:Q2# 06:Q3# 06:Q4# 07:Q2# 07:Q3# 07:Q4# 08:Q2# 08:Q3# 08:Q4# 09:Q2# 09:Q3# 09:Q4# 10:Q2# 10:Q3# 10:Q4# 11:Q2# 11:Q3# 11:Q4# 12:Q2# 12:Q3# 0.50# NJ# NV# 0.40# NY# OH# 0.30# PA# TX# 0.20# ALL# 0.10# New Jersey 0.00# 03:Q1# 03:Q2# 03:Q3# 03:Q4# 04:Q1# 04:Q2# 04:Q3# 04:Q4# 05:Q1# 05:Q2# 05:Q3# 05:Q4# 06:Q1# 06:Q2# 06:Q3# 06:Q4# 07:Q1# 07:Q2# 07:Q3# 07:Q4# 08:Q1# 08:Q2# 08:Q3# 08:Q4# 09:Q1# 09:Q2# 09:Q3# 09:Q4# 10:Q1# 10:Q2# 10:Q3# 10:Q4# 11:Q1# 11:Q2# 11:Q3# 11:Q4# 12:Q1# 12:Q2# 12:Q3# New York Federal Reserve Bank Household Debt and Credit Report FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, 5% sample of people with credit reports using Equifax expanding with household characteristics the NY Fed collects http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/data_dictionary_HHDC.pdfTuesday, March 5, 13
  6. 6. NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings 2005-2012 !80,000!! !70,000!! !66,717!! !60,000!! !58,445!! !51,623!! NumberofForeclosureFilings !50,000!! Total!Filings! !40,000!! Residen;al! !36,360!! Commercial! !30,896!! Condo! !30,000!! Tax! !24,857!! !20,253!! !20,000!! !11,037!! !10,000!! !-!! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012! ForeclosureFilingYear Moratorium applied Dec 2010 Moratorium lifted August 2011 NJ Administrative Office of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible fromNJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdfTuesday, March 5, 13
  7. 7. NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings by Type of Filing 2006-2012 100%# 90%# 80%# 70%# NumberofForeclosureFilings 60%# Tax# 50%# Condo# 40%# Commercial# Residen<al# 30%# 20%# 10%# 0%# 2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012# FilingYear Moratorium applied Dec 2010 Moratorium lifted August 2011 NJ Administrative Office of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible fromNJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdfTuesday, March 5, 13
  8. 8. Metro Areas: Highest Foreclosure Rate September 2012 • Of 100 largest U.S. metro areas as of September 2012 Metro Foreclosure Metro Prime Subprime Rank Rate Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 2nd 17% 10% 46% Atlantic City-Hammonton 14th 13% 10% 44% Trenton-Ewing 27th 10% 7% 39% Ocean City 73rd 7% 5% 40% Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March 2011. LPS analysis available here: : http:// www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html Seriously delinquent loans are measured as loans that are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Analysis includes first liens.Tuesday, March 5, 13
  9. 9. Foreclosure Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area September 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Total Foreclosure Rate Less than 6% 6% to 8% Trenton-Ewing, NJ 8% to 10% Greater than 10% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.orgTuesday, March 5, 13 ± 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles
  10. 10. Prime Foreclosure Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area September 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Prime Foreclosure Rate Less than 4% 4% to 5% Trenton-Ewing, NJ 5% to 6% Greater than 6% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.orgTuesday, March 5, 13 ± 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles
  11. 11. Subprime Foreclosure Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area September 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Subprime Foreclosure Rate Less than 25% 25% to 30% Trenton-Ewing, NJ 30% to 35% Greater than 35% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.orgTuesday, March 5, 13 ± 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles
  12. 12. NJ Counties: Residential Foreclosure Filings by Year Filed 2006-2012 30000" 25000" 20000" NumberofForeclosureFilings TOTAL"12" TOTAL"11" 15000" TOTAL"10" TOTAL"09" TOTAL"08" TOTAL"07" 10000" TOTAL"06" 5000" 0" " c" n" " x" n" " " " " n" c" " t" " n" n" n" " " r" en nd on ex th ris m ex ay er se n, ai se ce to do ea io re de le ou st es ss or "M rg rla ds ss er Un Es er ar ng Oc la Sa m er ce Su dl Be M m Pa Hu m pe be W At M Ca rli nt id ou on So Ca m Bu Hu M Gl M Cu CountyWherethePropertyIsLocated NJ Administrative Office of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from NJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdfTuesday, March 5, 13
  13. 13. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2006 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  14. 14. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2007 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  15. 15. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2008 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  16. 16. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2009 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  17. 17. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2010 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  18. 18. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2011 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  19. 19. Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012 SUSSEX New Jersey PASSAIC MORRIS BERGEN WARREN Residential Foreclosure Starts 2012 ESSEX Less than 1,000 HUDSON 1,000 - 2,000 UNION HUNTERDON 2,000 - 3,000 SOMERSET 3,000 - 5,000 MIDDLESEX More than 5,000 MERCER MONMOUTH NJ Counties BURLINGTON OCEAN CAMDEN GLOUCESTER SALEM ATLANTIC CUMBERLAND ± CAPE MAY Source: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts 0 5 10 20 MilesTuesday, March 5, 13
  20. 20. Seriously DelinquentTuesday, March 5, 13
  21. 21. Percent of Mortgage Debt 90+ Days Delinquent, 120+ Days Delinquent, or Severely Derogatory 2003-2012 3Q 30.00# 25.00# Nevada AZ# CA# 20.00# Florida FL# IL# MI# 15.00# NJ# New NV# Jersey NY# OH# 10.00# PA# TX# ALL# 5.00# 0.00# 03:Q1# 03:Q2# 03:Q3# 03:Q4# 04:Q1# 04:Q2# 04:Q3# 04:Q4# 05:Q1# 05:Q2# 05:Q3# 05:Q4# 06:Q1# 06:Q2# 06:Q3# 06:Q4# 07:Q1# 07:Q2# 07:Q3# 07:Q4# 08:Q1# 08:Q2# 08:Q3# 08:Q4# 09:Q1# 09:Q2# 09:Q3# 09:Q4# 10:Q1# 10:Q2# 10:Q3# 10:Q4# 11:Q1# 11:Q2# 11:Q3# 11:Q4# 12:Q1# 12:Q2# 12:Q3# New York Federal Reserve Bank Household Debt and Credit Report FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, 5% sample of people with credit reports using Equifax expanding with household characteristics the NY Fed collects http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/data_dictionary_HHDC.pdfTuesday, March 5, 13
  22. 22. Metro Areas: 90+ days delinquent (not yet in foreclosure) • Of 100 metro areas in the U.S. with the largest increase in 90+ day delinquencies Sept 12 Metro Metro Rank 90+ Days Delinquent Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 1st 9% Atlantic City-Hammonton 7th 6% Trenton-Ewing 29th 4%Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage Sept 2012. LPS analysis available here: http://www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html. Seriously delinquent loans are measured as first liens that are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Seriouslydelinquent rate is measured as 90+ delinquent share of all first lien mortgages.Tuesday, March 5, 13
  23. 23. Metro Areas: Serious Delinquency Sept 11- Sept 12 (90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure) • Of the top 25 largest U.S. metro areas - September 2012 compared with September 2011 90+ Days Delinquent or in Metro Metro Rank Foreclosure Sept 11-Sept 12 Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 1st 26% Atlantic City-Hammonton 2nd 19% Trenton-Ewing 6th 14% Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March 2012. LPS analysis available here: http://www.foreclosure- response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Analysis includes first liens.Tuesday, March 5, 13
  24. 24. Serious Delinquency Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area December 2009 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Serious Delinquency Rate Less than 10% 10% to 12% Trenton-Ewing, NJ 12% to 14% Greater than 14% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.orgTuesday, March 5, 13 ± 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles
  25. 25. Serious Delinquency Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area September 2011 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Serious Delinquency Rate Less than 10% 10% to 12% Trenton-Ewing, NJ 12% to 14% Greater than 14% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.orgTuesday, March 5, 13 ± 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles
  26. 26. Serious Delinquency Rate Metropolitan Statistical Area September 2012 New Jersey Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Serious Delinquency Rate Less than 10% 10% to 12% Trenton-Ewing, NJ 12% to 14% Greater than 14% Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month Ocean City, NJ Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.orgTuesday, March 5, 13 ± 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles
  27. 27. NJ: Loan Modifications and Workouts Reported by the Federal HAMP Program 40,000" 35,000" 30,000" 25,000" AcAve"or" NumberofModfica/ons Permanent" ModificaAons" 20,000" AcAve"Trials" 15,000" Permanent" ModificaAons" 10,000" 5,000" 0" Oct,09" Dec,09" Dec,10" Dec,11" Nov,09" Jan,10" Feb,10" Mar,10" Apr,10" Jul,10" Sep,10" Jan,11" Feb,11" Mar,11" Apr,11" May,11" Jun,11" Jul,11" Aug,11" Sep,11" Oct,11" Nov,11" Jan,12" Feb,12" Mar,12" Apr,12" Jul,12" Dec,12" Sep,12" Nov,10" Nov,12" Oct,10" Oct,12" May,10" May,12" Aug,10" Aug,12" Jun,10" Jun,12" Making Home Affordable. Servicer Performance Report Through December 2012. As of Feb 2013 http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/reports/ Pages/Making-Home-Affordable-Program-Performance-Report.aspx http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/initiatives/Housing%20ScorecardTuesday, March 5, 13
  28. 28. House Price ChangeTuesday, March 5, 13
  29. 29. NJ Counties Year-to-Year House Price Change 30.0%& Cape May 25.0%& Hunterdon& Cape May Hudson Hudson Atlan5c& Atlantic Bergen& 20.0%& Atlantic Salem Burlington& Home$Price$Decline$Year$to$Year$CoreLogic$House$Price$Indices$Via$NY$Fed$ Camden& 15.0%& Cape&May& Cumberland& Cumberland Essex& 10.0%& Gloucester& Hudson& 5.0%& Mercer& Middlesex& Monmouth& 0.0%& Morris& 2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ Ocean& !5.0%& Passaic& Salem& Cape May Somerset& !10.0%& Sussex& Salem Passaic Union& !15.0%& Warren& Atlantic Salem !20.0%& New York Federal Reserve Bank. Feb 2013 based on NY Fed CoreLogic House Price Indices. http://www.newyorkfed.org/home-price-index/#Tuesday, March 5, 13

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