NJ Future Conservation Rally 3 10-12 State Planning Kasabach
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NJ Future Conservation Rally 3 10-12 State Planning Kasabach

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A look population growth patterns in the Garden State, at the history of state planning, and at what the new State Strategic Plan could be if implemented well.

A look population growth patterns in the Garden State, at the history of state planning, and at what the new State Strategic Plan could be if implemented well.

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  • 1. NJ Final State Plan: A Key toEconomic Stimulus or Sprawl? New Jersey Future Peter Kasabach, Executive Director March 10, 2012 New Jersey Land Conservation RallyBrookdale Community College, Lincroft, Monmouth County
  • 2. Smart Growth research, policy and advocacy organization Development that protects open space and farmland, revitalizes communities, keeps housing affordable, and provides transportation choices
  • 3. EconomicModel ofPerpetual Growth
  • 4. Decennial Census Population % # New Jersey has grown in 1790 184,139 population every year since 1800 211,149 15% 27,010 1810 245,562 16% 34,413 we started counting. 1820 277,575 13% 32,013 1830 320,823 16% 43,248 1840 373,306 16% 52,483 But our borders have 1850 489,555 31% 116,249 never grown. 1860 672,035 37% 182,480 1870 906,096 35% 234,061 1880 1,131,116 25% 225,020 1890 1,444,933 28% 313,817 •Between 1850-1930 1900 1,883,669 30% 438,736 growth averaged 30% and 1910 2,537,167 35% 653,498 just over 400,000 people 1920 3,155,900 24% 618,733 per decade. 1930 4,041,334 28% 885,434 1940 4,160,165 3% 118,831 1950 4,835,329 16% 675,164 1960 6,066,782 25% 1,231,453 How do we manage growth? 1970 7,171,112 18% 1,104,330 1980 7,365,011 3% 193,899 1990 7,730,188 5% 365,177 2000 8,414,350 9% 684,162 2010 8,791,894 4% 377,544
  • 5. Decennial Census Population % # 1790 184,139 1800 211,149 15% 27,010 1810 245,562 16% 34,413 New Jersey has had 1820 277,575 13% 32,013 two very different 1830 320,823 16% 43,248 1840 373,306 16% 52,483 growth patterns. 1850 489,555 31% 116,249 1860 672,035 37% 182,480 1870 906,096 35% 234,061 1880 1,131,116 25% 225,020 1890 1,444,933 28% 313,817 • Center-based growth 1900 1,883,669 30% 438,736 (walkable urban) until the 1910 2,537,167 35% 653,498 1950s. 1920 3,155,900 24% 618,733 1930 4,041,334 28% 885,434 •Then sprawl (driveable sub- 1940 4,160,165 3% 118,831 urban). 1950 4,835,329 16% 675,164 1960 6,066,782 25% 1,231,453 1970 7,171,112 18% 1,104,330 1980 7,365,011 3% 193,899 1990 7,730,188 5% 365,177 2000 8,414,350 9% 684,162 2010 8,791,894 4% 377,544
  • 6. Percentage of NJ’s Population Living at Various Densities, 1930 to 2008 percentage of NJs population living at various densities 1930 to 200870%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2008density (persons per square mile): urban/compact (5,000 and up) suburban (1,500 - 4,999) exurban (500 - 1,499) rural (< 500)
  • 7. State Planning1934 Governor Moorecreates temporary stateplanning board and firststate planning act passed.
  • 8. State Planning• First State Development Plan • Policy Map from current State Development and Redevelopment Plan.• GS Parkway, NJ Turnpike,Round Valley Reservoir, Wharton • From 1986 State Planning Actand Worthington forests. • Five Planning Areas.
  • 9. Running Out of Land 1986 1995 2002 2007"available" ("developable") acres - notdeveloped, not permanently preservedor environmentally constrained 1,931,837 1,772,099 1,345,425 991,638% of states land area that was developed/ urbanized 26.0% 28.7% 31.2% 32.9%Continuing Inefficient Sprawl 1986 - 1995 1995 - 2002 2002 - 2007newly-developed acres per year 13,998 16,700 16,059population growth rate 6.0% 5.7% 1.1%ratio, % change in developed acres to %change in population 1.72 1.54 5.14
  • 10. Built Out, But Still Growing2004 = 204 municipalities at least 90% built out2007 = 271 municipalities at least 90% built out Built-out places of all types accounted for a much larger share of total statewide building permit activity in the 2000s, after the adoption of the Rehab Subcode in 1998, than they had in the 1990s.
  • 11. Our Goals for State Planning• Encourage Center-based growth that results in more walkablecommunities and more efficient use of land• Prioritize Redevelopment• Discourage sprawl and high value greenfield and farm fieldconversion• Cluster Development
  • 12. Our Expectations for the State Plan• Identify places to grow and places to preserve.• Align state investments to support these areas.• Guide the type of development, not just the location.• Create density patterns that allow transportation choice,mixes of uses, economic agglomeration and contiguouspreserved and protected spaces.• Facilitate consistency with the plan between state, county,and locals.
  • 13. New Jersey FuturePeter Kasabach, Executive Director www.njfuture.org . 609-393-0008