David Lewis on Libraries
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  • The Foundation Index, with an index value of 153 in 2008, has increased at a 10 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 1993.This index, shown in Exhibit 4, tells the story of a swiftly moving digital infrastructure propelled by unremitting price performance improvements in computing, storage, and bandwidth that show no signs of stabilizing.The Flow Index, with an index value of 139 in 2008, has increased at a seven percent CAGR since 1993.The Flow Index, shown in Exhibit 6, measures the rate of change and magnitude of knowledge flows resulting from the advances in digital infrastructure and public policy liberalization.This index is designed to measure the rate of change and magnitude of the impact of the Big Shift on three key constituencies: Markets, Firms, and People. For People, it attempts to determine how effective they are as consumers and creative talent at harnessing the benefits of knowledge flows unleashed by advances in the core digital infrastructure. Because they are already good at doing this—and are only getting better at it—the index is set to increase as they derive more value from the Big Shift.At least in the short term, however, Markets and Firms appear to be moving in the opposite direction. Partly at the hands of the consumers and talent who are doing so well, pressures on returns are unparalleled, and the traditional way of doing business is increasingly under siege. So as markets grow more volatile, competition intensifies, and firm performance declines, the Impact Index will also increase.
  • Findings from the 2009 Shift Index suggest that deep changes in our economic foundations continue to outpace the flows of knowledge they enable and their impact on markets, firms, and people. Fitting a trend line to each of the three indices, we see that the Foundation Index has moved much more quickly in the past 15 years (with a slope of 7.83) relative to the Flow Index (5.95) and the Impact Index (1.93). These comparative rates of change are shown in Exhibit 3.Comparing the relative rates of change and magnitudes of the three indices reveals telling gaps. The gap between the Foundation Index (153) and the Impact Index (111), for example, defines the scope of the challenges and opportunities that arise from rapidly changing digital infrastructure. Essentially, it measures the economic instability that results from performance potential (reflected by the Foundation Index) rising more quickly than realized performance (reflected in the Impact Index). If realized performance is significantly lower than potential performance, there is growing room for disruptive innovation to narrow this gap.
  • Findings from the 2009 Shift Index suggest that deep changes in our economic foundations continue to outpace the flows of knowledge they enable and their impact on markets, firms, and people. Fitting a trend line to each of the three indices, we see that the Foundation Index has moved much more quickly in the past 15 years (with a slope of 7.83) relative to the Flow Index (5.95) and the Impact Index (1.93). These comparative rates of change are shown in Exhibit 3.Comparing the relative rates of change and magnitudes of the three indices reveals telling gaps. The gap between the Foundation Index (153) and the Impact Index (111), for example, defines the scope of the challenges and opportunities that arise from rapidly changing digital infrastructure. Essentially, it measures the economic instability that results from performance potential (reflected by the Foundation Index) rising more quickly than realized performance (reflected in the Impact Index). If realized performance is significantly lower than potential performance, there is growing room for disruptive innovation to narrow this gap.

David Lewis on Libraries David Lewis on Libraries Presentation Transcript

  • All the King’s Horses and All theKing’s Men: College Libraries atthe Beginning of the Digital AgeDavid W. LewisNITLEOctober 31, 2012© 2012 David W. Lewis. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.
  • Abstract:This presentation will examine what the current state ofCollege Libraries. I will use the lens of Clayton Christensen’stheories of disruptive innovation to attempt to determinewhat jobs students and faculty will hire college libraries to doand what theories we can use to look into the future andmake reasonable predictions about what is coming. A centralconsideration will be the role of collections. Collections are ofprime importance because they are both where most of themoney goes and because they have shaped library practiceand values. They are core to how we see ourselves and howothers see us. But collections have large opportunity costs,and if college libraries are to be successful in the next decadethey must shed some of these costs, without impacting theirusers, and reinvest them in new services.
  • “That is what real revolutions are like. The oldstuff gets broken faster than the new stuff is putin its place.”Clay Shirky, “Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable,” March 2009. Available at:http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2009/03/newspapers-and-thinking-the-unthinkable/Clay Shirky
  • Today’s Agenda1. Importance of Theory2. Disruption in Our World3. Clayton Christensen’s Disruptive InnovationTheory4. What Job are We being Hired to Do?5. Collections6. Questions to Think About
  • The Importance of Theory• Data is only available about the past• Every time we take an action it is based on atheory• The lens of theory lets you see the future• Usually our operating theory is that thefuture will be a continuation of the past
  • The Importance of Theory• The future will be a continuation of the pastis not the theory we need• Clayton Christensen’s Disruptive Innovationtheory is a much better lens because it fitsour time
  • “Disruptive Innovation transforms a productthat historically was so expensive andcomplicated that only a few people with a lotof money and a lot of skill had access to it. Adisruptive innovation makes the product somuch more affordable and accessible that amuch larger population have access to it.”Clayton Christensen, “Disruptive Innovation Explained,” HarvardBusiness, May 30, 2012. Available at:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDrMAzCHFUU&feature=related
  • Our World is BeingDisrupted
  • 1. The Big Shift2. Ray Kurzweil3. Clay Shirky
  • The Big ShiftJohn Hagel III, John Seely Brown, and Lang Davison, “Measuring the forces of long-term change: The 2009 Shift Index,” DeloitteCenter for the Edge, 2009. Available at: http://www.johnhagel.com/shiftindex.pdf
  • The Big Shift
  • The Big Shift
  • The Big ShiftDisruption Space
  • The Big Shift• First Order Effect: Technology substantiallyreduces barriers to entry and barriers tomovement on a global scale• Second Order Effect: Competition intensifieson a global scale• Third Order Effect: As competition intensifies,instability and uncertainty increase
  • The Big Shift• Organizations have generally been unable toapply the capacities made possible by thetechnology to increase performance• Power moves to consumers• Power moves to trained and skilledindividuals• Creates organizational and personal stress
  • See: Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” March 7, 2001, available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returnsRay Kurzweil and “TheLaw of AcceleratingReturns”When a technology becomes digital the pace ofchange becomes exponential.
  • See: Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” March 7, 2001, available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
  • See: Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” March 7, 2001, available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
  • See: Ray Kurzweil, “The Law of Accelerating Returns,” March 7, 2001, available at: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
  • “The moment we are living through, themoment our historical generation is livingthrough, is the largest increase in expressivecapacity in human history.”Clay Shirky, “How Social Media Can Make History,” TED Talk, June 2009. Available at:http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.htmlClay Shirky
  • Disruptive InnovationTheory
  • Disruptive InnovationClayton Christensen
  • Disruptive Innovation• The capacity for customers to use newproducts and features increases, but at aslow rate• Products improve faster than customers canuse the improvements• Products that are initially not good enoughbecome too good
  • Time
  • Time
  • TimeUndershotCustomerOvershotCustomer
  • Disruptive Innovation• Undershot Customer– Wants and will pay new features– Where money can be made• Overshot Customer– Doesn’t care about new features – performanceoversupply– Basis of competition changes– Wants product to be cheaper, faster, easier– Commoditization
  • Time
  • Time
  • Disruptive Innovation• Starts off as not being good enough forestablished customers so they don’t careabout the product• Often creates a new group of users who didnot have the time, expertise, or money to usethe established product• Begins by competing against non-consumption
  • Disruptive Innovation• Needs–New Technology (simplified solution)–New Business Model–New Value Chain• How products become cheaper, faster, andeasier
  • Why can’t established firms adaptdisruptive innovations?
  • Business ModelsValue PropositionA product that helpscustomers do moreeffectively, conveniently andaffordably a job they’ve beentrying to do
  • Business ModelsValue PropositionA product that helpscustomers do moreeffectively, conveniently andaffordably a job they’ve beentrying to doResourcesPeople, technology, products,facilities, equipment and cashthat are required to deliverthis value to customers
  • Value PropositionA product that helpscustomers do moreeffectively, conveniently andaffordably a job they’ve beentrying to doResourcesPeople, technology, products,facilities, equipment and cashthat are required to deliverthis value proposition tocustomersProcessesWays of working together toaddress recurrent tasks in aconsistent way: training,development, budgeting,planning, etc.Business Models
  • Business ModelsValue PropositionA product that helpscustomers do moreeffectively, conveniently andaffordably a job they’ve beentrying to doResourcesPeople, technology, products,facilities, equipment and cashthat are required to deliverthis value proposition tocustomersProcessesWays of working together toaddress recurrent tasks in aconsistent way: training,development, budgeting,planning, etc.Profit Formula/ValuesAssets and fixed coststructure, margins,professional values, careerpaths, etc.
  • Business ModelsValue PropositionA product that helpscustomers do moreeffectively, conveniently andaffordably a job they’ve beentrying to doResourcesPeople, technology, products,facilities, equipment and cashthat are required to deliverthis value proposition tocustomersProcessesWays of working together toaddress recurrent tasks in aconsistent way: training,development, budgeting,planning, etc.Profit Formula/ValuesAssets and fixed coststructure, margins,professional values, careerpaths
  • Business Models• Established values make in nearly impossiblefor organizations to create disruptiveinnovation• Separation is the only strategy that works• Firms that survive sacrifice business unitsthat don’t
  • Value ChainProduct or ServiceSales and ServiceSupplierCustomer
  • Value ChainProduct or ServiceSales and ServiceSupplierCustomerNEW Product
  • Value ChainProduct or ServiceSales and ServiceSupplierCustomerNEW Product
  • Value ChainProduct or ServiceSales and ServiceSupplierCustomerNEW ProductNEW SupplierSales and ServiceNEW Customer
  • Value ChainOLD CustomerNEW ProductNEW SupplierSales and ServiceNEW Customer
  • Response to Disruptive Innovation• Cramming — Try to make the innovationwork within old organization processes andcultureThis rarely works• Move up market — Focus make a betterproduct for the best customers and concedelower endEventually the market tops out
  • What Job are We beingHired to Do?
  • Ronald Harry Coase“The Nature of the Firm” Economica 4(16): 386–405 1937Question: If markets are efficient, why do wehave firms?
  • Ronald Harry Coase“The Nature of the Firm” Economica 4(16): 386–405 1937Question: If markets are efficient, why do wehave firms?Answer: Transaction Costs
  • Ronald Harry Coase“The Nature of the Firm” Economica 4(16): 386–405 1937• Where the market has high transactionscosts firms bring activities in house
  • “The Nature of the Firm” and Libraries• In the past the market could not answerquestions• Now answering many kinds of questions iseasy• What is hard now is evaluating what you find
  • “The Nature of the Firm” and Libraries• In the past the market could not managecollections• Now access to many kinds of collections iseasy• What is hard now is curation andpreservation of “unpublished” and specialmaterials
  • Old Job:Provide documents tousers by building a localcollection
  • Our approach to collections hascreated our values and it is howothers judge us.Changing this will be very hard!!
  • Redefining the Academic Library: Managing the Migration to Digital Information Services, Advisory Board Company 2011. Available at:http://www.theconferencecircuit.com/wp-content/uploads/Provosts-Report-on-Academic-Libraries2.pdf
  • Redefining the Academic Library: Managing the Migration to Digital Information Services, Advisory Board Company 2011. Available at:http://www.educationadvisoryboard.com/pdf/23634-EAB-Redefining-the-Academic-Library.pdf10 M20 M22 M30 M ?
  • Two Drivers of Change in Collections1. Open Access2. Change from Just-in-Case to Just-in-Time
  • Two Drivers of Change in Collections1. Open Access - Journals2. Change from Just-in-Case to Just-in-Time- Books
  • Open Access“Open-access (OA) literature is digital, online, free ofcharge, and free of most copyright and licensingrestrictions. OA removes price barriers (subscriptions,licensing fees, pay-per-view fees) and permissionbarriers (most copyright and licensing restrictions).”– Peter SuberPeter Suber, “Open Access Overview,” at: http://www.earlham.edu/~peters/fos/overview.htm
  • Open Access• Open Access is a disruptive innovation (ClaytonChristensen)– New technology– New business model– Starts out as an inferior product– Improves over time and its advantages makeit dominant– Adoption follows an S-curve not a straight lineDavid W. Lewis, “The Inevitability of Open Access,” College & Research Libraries September 2012.Available at: http://crl.acrl.org/content/73/5/493.full.pdf+html
  • Open Access0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Figure 3: Pace of Substitution of Direct Gold OA forSubscription Journals (normal scale)Laakso, et. al. EstimatesS-curve Extrapolation Based on 2000-2009S-curve Extrapolation Based on 2005-2009David W. Lewis, “The Inevitability of Open Access,” College & Research Libraries September 2012.Available at: http://crl.acrl.org/content/73/5/493.full.pdf+html
  • From January 1, 2012 to October 25, 201218,414 Articles Published
  • eLife is a researcher-driven initiative for the very best in science andscience communication. We promote rapid, fair, and moreconstructive review. We will use digital media and open access toincrease the influence of published works. We commit to servingauthors and advancing careers in science. At eLife,Publishing is just the beginning.
  • If we can set a goal to sequence the humangenome for $99... then why not $99 forscholarly publishing?PeerJ is an Open Access publisher of scholarly articles. We aim todrive the costs of publishing down, while improving the overallpublishing experience, and providing authors with a publication venuesuitable for the 21st Century.
  • Available at: http://blogs.library.duke.edu/scholcomm/files/2012/09/Berstein-report-on-Elsevier.pdf
  • Implications of Open Access1. Changes in review practices because space isnot an issue2. “Journal” becomes less important than thearticle3. Large sites replace individual journals, forexample PLoS One or SSRN
  • Implications of Open Access1. As more journals become open access, thelibrary will have to pay for fewer journals2. Escape from the grip of monopolisticpublishers3. Libraries in their role of informationproviders, won’t be part of the system
  • Just-in-Case to Just-in-Time• In a typical research library 50% of the booksthat are purchased never circulate• In the past this made sense as an insurancepolicy
  • Just-in-Case to Just-in-Time• Now nearly any book can be purchased atany time with very quick delivery• Why purchase before the user needs an itemif you don’t have to?• Since past use is the best predictor of futureuse, books users “select” are likely to get usein the future
  • • Print books delivered nearlyas quickly as digital files• Digital readers nearly as goodas print booksFor what might come next, see: Mike Matas, “A Next-Generation Digital Book,” TED Talk, March 2011. Available at:http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/mike_matas.html
  • Implications ofJust-in-Case to Just-in-Time1. Aggressively work at not buying books thatwill never be used2. Book purchases will decline3. But impact on readers will be minimal1. Will impact scholarly publishers by reducingrevenueThey don’t see this coming
  • Questions to ThinkAbout
  • 1. What do we give up?• Disruptive Innovations have replaced ourexpensive and hard to use services• Can we free ride on commercial services orother libraries?• Implications for our role on campus• Implications for the status of the campus
  • 2. What Do We Do Differently?• Can aggressively pursued sustaininginnovations keep us ahead of ourcompetitors?• Can we collaborate to achieve greater scaleand efficiency?• Can we disrupt our own services?
  • 3. What New Things Can We Do?• Can we disrupt others?• Are there new jobs we can be hired to do?
  • “That is what real revolutions are like. The oldstuff gets broken faster than the new stuff is putin its place.”Clay Shirky, “Newspapers and Thinking the Unthinkable,” March 2009. Available at:http://www.shirky.com/weblog/2009/03/newspapers-and-thinking-the-unthinkable/Clay Shirky
  • Questions?Comments© 2012 David W. Lewis. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License.