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  • 1. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODEL „DRIVING FORCES – PRESSURE – STATE – IMPACT - RESPONSE” IN FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE UPPER NISHAVA CATCHMENTI. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHThe development of a model "Driving Forces - Pressures - State - Impact -Response" proposed by the European Environment Agency /EEA/ is the first stepin flood risk assessmenty. (Fig. 1). Figure. 1. Conceptual framework for assessing flood risk RESPONSES Prevention, protection and mitigation measures for negative consequencesDRIVING FORCES Climate Landscape factors of the basin IMPACTPRESSURE Damages Social-economic Landuse changes consequences Urbanization Environmental Transport infrastructure consequences Soil sealing Historical and future floods Types of floods Maximum run-off STATE EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 1
  • 2. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaIn the preliminary risk assessment, one of the simplest methods for estimating theflood hazard is the introduction of the "criterion of horizontal distance". A horizontaldistance between the object /settlement, industrial objects, cultural sites, railwayand road network, protected natural areas, etc./ can be determined and locatednear the river Nisava (Fig. 2).Figure 2. Schematic sketch of the criterion of horizontal distance населено река 1 място 1 населено място 2 заплаха от наводнения Xm Xm Xm Xm река 2 населено място 3 риск от наводненияOur preliminary research showed that the distance of objects at 200 m from theriver is suitable for the conditions of the river basin Nišava.According to the directive 60/2007-EU, the following categories are used inassessment of adverse effects: "human health", "industry", "environment" and"cultural heritage".II. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE MODEL „DRIVING FORCES – PRESSURE –STATE – IMPACT - RESPONCE”DRIVING FORCES EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 2
  • 3. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaAccording to the conceptual framework of the model /Fig.1/ drivers for floodformation are the climate and landscape conditions of the research basin.Climatic factors1.Atmosferic-circulation systemsThe geographical location of the territory of Serbia defines the invasion of airmasses coming predominantly from the northwest (Ducic, Radovanovic, 2005).The types of air masses that determine the weather conditions in the basin ofNishava River are Arctic - sea, continental arctic, continental polar, polar - marine,tropical - continental, tropical sea.Fig. 3 Hydrometrical network within Nishava River Basin2. Air temperatureThe analysis of data from 55 weather stations for the period 1946-2006 showsthat the highest average monthly temperatures are in July and lowest in January.In the northern part of Serbia, the average annual temperatures are between 10.8and 11.5 ° C, and in the lowlands of Central and Southern Serbia temperaturesare between 10.0 and 12.1 ° C. EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 3
  • 4. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaPrecipitation factorsThe average precipitation in the territory of Serbia is 699.7 mm / year. The modeof precipitation is very diverse, since the annual rainfall in different parts of thecountry reaches extreme values (1500 mm drainage area of White River Drim to900 mm in the upper parts of the river Ibar river or river Plavska Lepenitsa).Generally, the month of greatest rainfall is June, and the month of least - Februaryor March.Landscape factors1. Lithological basisNishava River Basin at Pirot, without Visocica, is composed of limestone,represented by marly-sandstone passing into massive limestone, urgonianlimestone with impurities of shales, marls and sands.Fig. 4 Geological structure of Nishava River Basin2. Landscape EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 4
  • 5. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaSerbia is a country with mostly hilly and mountainous terrain type (65% of theterritory) and 60,000 km2 of agricultural land are permanent. About 30% of theDanube Basin in Serbia is forested (ICPDR, 2006). The relief within the rivercatchment is mostly mountainous.3. SoilsThree main types of soils are typical of the region - organic-rich black soil(chernozem), slightly acidic brown podzolic, podzolic soils infertile.Fig. 5 Soils in Nishava River Basin4. VegetationThe biodiversity in Nišava River Basin is characterized by big diversity. Eachaltitude zone is characterized by a certain type of vegetation. In eastern Serbia,the vegetation is represented by three main types: meadows, pastures, forests.PRESSUREThe main factors which generally intensify torrential processes are changes in landuse, soil sealing, urbanization and transport infrastructure. EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 5
  • 6. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia1. Changes in land useFigure. 6 Land use in Nishava River Basin / Corine, 2006 /These destructive changes in the land cover and landscape often weaken theretention and bioecological functions of forests and strengthen-torrential erosion.1. Soil sealingSoil sealing in recent years is estimated to be substantial global threat not only tosoils but also to intensification of the surface run-off formation during heavy rains.Compared with 2000, in 2006 the growth of soil sealing rate is insignificant - with10.69 km2. Almost negligible in 2006 is the increased the area of industrial andcommercial buildings and road infrastructure and the area of sports, andrecreation and urban fabric slightly decreased.2. UrbanizationGenerally, urbanization increases the frequency of flood occurrence and reducesthe time for formation of high waves due to soil sealing. Flooded river terraces ofNišava river and its tributaries are a preferred place for business development. EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 6
  • 7. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaThe settlement network is comprised of 307 cities /incl. 7 cities/. The density ofurban settlement network is 7.5 / 100 km2. 72% of the total area of settlements laywithin the 200m buffer zone around rivers.Fig. 7 Settlement network inNishava River Basin1. Transportation infrastructureThe transport infrastructure intensifies the processes of floods formation and thiercatastrophic effect. The еxisting road network in Nishava river basin hasinadequate drainage systems, which redirects surface runoff from other areasduring intense rainfall, which together with the local surface runoff can cause arapid rise in river level and a flood event. It should also be taken into account thatthe transport infrastructure is crucial for the evacuation of the population andaccess to emergency service in case of flooding. EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 7
  • 8. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaFig. 8 Transport infrastructure in the buffer zone of 200 m in Nishava River BasinVI.STATEThe described climatic and landscape features of the catchment of Nisava riverand the changes occurred in the recent years in termds of land use, intensificationof urbanization processes and infrastructure development are key factors forformation and occurrence of floods in the river basin. Particularly devastatingtorrential floods causing considerable damage and casualties are those in 1929,1942-1943, 1957-1958, 1980, 30.11.2007, 15.05.2010 EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 8
  • 9. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia Fig. 9 Floods in Nishava River BasinVII. IMPACTVII.1. Negative effects of past floodsNo information about past floods in Nishava River Basin was found in the sourcesof information. However, it can be concluded that they are important primarily inrelation to protected categories "human health" and "business".VII.2. Potential negative consequencesThe potential risk in the Nishava River Basin exists regarding the protectedcategories "human health", "business", "environment" and "cultural heritage".Table 1. Affected people Settlements Size of Area of the Population, Occupancy Number within a 200 m urban city, number of density of of people EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 9
  • 10. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia buffer zone area, located in people population, affected from rivers km2 200 m prs/ km2 buffer zone of rivers, km2 Godech 6,14 3,72 4425 720 2677 Bela palanka 2,17 0,69 8112 3731 2575 Trun Dimitrovgrad 1,91 0,93 6247 3270 3052 Pirot 7,96 1,87 38432 4828 9039 Nis 22,32 1,87 177972 7974 32417Table 2. Potential risk category „Industry” Criterion Total In buffer % ed area Protect 200m Industry Economic activity Industrial and 8,45 1,09 12,9 commercial objects, km2 Transport infrastricture Lenght of the 946,176 271,426 28,7 transport infrastructure, km Total lenght of the 175,847 61,48 35,0 railway network, km Agriculture Complexes of 436,57 55,86 13,0 EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 10
  • 11. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia fragmented agricultural land, km2 Vineyards, km2 1,53 0,31 20,3 Non-irrigated arable land, km2 268,47 39,90 14,9 Agricultural land with significant areas of natural vegetation, km2 506,72 102,82 20,3 Pasture, km2 109,83 10,47 9,5 Fruit and berries plantations 0,73 0,11 15,1 Protected areas Natura 2000 ment" "Environ Birds Directive 467,28 58,10 12,4 Habitats Directive 453,05 70,73 15,6 Protected areas /R. Serbia/ 823,94 74,69 9,1Table 3. Potential flood risk for the transport infrastructure in Nishava River Basin Class roads Length of road network, Length of % Of the km road length of the network, road network located in located in the buffer bufernnata zone 200, 200 m area. km Highway 6,843 1,369 20 Highway project 10,057 2,645 26,3 Second class roads 304,300 86,092 28,3 EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 11
  • 12. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaFirst class roads 170,232 40,379 23,7Third class roads 454,742 140,939 31,0Table 4. Flood risk and NATURA 2000 objectsName Area km2 Area km2 in 200 % of area in 200 m buffer zone m buffer zoneBirds directive 2009/147/ЕСNoevci 3,69 0,82 22,2Ruy 173,45 18,38 10,59Rayanovci 90,24 10,70 11,85Ponor 128,19 16,71 13,03West Balkan 71,69 11,47 15,99Habitats directive 92/43/ЕЕСRebro 2,13 0,91 42,72Dragoman 109,15 13,61 12,46West Balkan 17,72Mountain and 274,21 48,60ForebalkanKurvav kamuk 37,80 2,12 5,6Ruy 17,06 5,25 30,77Lubash 12,67 0,20 1,57Protected reas /R.Serbia/Erma river gorge 0,15 0,11 73,3Temna dupka 0,19 0,03 15,78Kotlite 0,17 0,15 88,23Zaskogo 0,27 0,11 40,74Uruchnik 0,16 0,08 50,00Klisura Osanicke 9,1 80,84 7,36reke EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 12
  • 13. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia Bifurkacija reke 90,02 74,21 66,81 NerodimkeVIII. ANSWERThe measures taken in Nishava River Basin in the past are engineering-technical/corrections of the watercourses, construction of dams and protective walls/. Theriver flow is regulates within the cities Godech and Dimitrovgrad.The analysis of the functioning system of measures for flood protection shows thatit is not particularly efficient in cases of extreme floods with very little repetition.Acceptable level of protection could be achieved only after detailed mapping of theflood risks under various scenarios. An adequate scheme of measures (hydro-technical) and non-engineetring measures needs to be determined. This publication was elaboraed with the assistance of the European Union, through IPA Cross-border co-operation programme CCI No 2007CB16IPO006. The contents of this publication is a responsibility of the SRD-SU „St. KlimentOhridski” and should in no way be accepted as a statement of the European Union or the Managaing Authority of the programme. EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment” 13