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  • 1. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia ADAPTATION OF HYDROLOGICAL MODEL FOR NISHAVA RIVER BASINThe determination of the maximum run-off with different security is a key task in floodrisk assessment. The availability of reliable and spatially distributed parameters ofextreme maximum run-off is essential for adequate flood risk management. In floodrisk mapping and planning of mitigation measures, it is crutial to calculate therepetition period correctly.Implementation of the regionalization method of maximum run-off for NishavaRiver BasinTheoretical approachEight factors and characteristics of drainage basins and river systems that areessential for the formation of maximum flow are set out in LUBW, 2007:• area of the catchment AEo [km2]• urbanized territory S [%]• afforestation W [%]• average slope Ig [%]• river length L [km] along the main rivers of the watershed to the confluence• river length LC [km] from the center of gravity of the catchment to its estuary;• average annual rainfall in the catchment hNG [mm]• landscape factor LF [-]The described characteristics and factors are included in multiple linear regressionequation, which equation is used to determine the maximum run-off with a differentsecurity (ie, MHQ and HQT), especially for the unobserved catchment: EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 2. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia ln Y   C0  C1  ln  AEo   C2  ln S  1  C3  ln W  1  C4  ln I g   C5  ln L   C6  ln LC   C7  ln hN G   C8  ln LF where: Y, YT are dependent variablesY  MHq regionalization of the values of average maximum water levels / MHQ /; Hq T : T = 2, ..., 10 000 a - for the regionalization of the values of maximumYT  MHq discharges HQT;MHq: module outflow average maximum annual flow MHQ (m³ / s/km2)HqT: module flow of maximum annual flow to a particular security or repetition period (T) - HQT (m³ / s/km2)C0 - C8: regression coefficients.Used informationFor the implementation of the method of regionalization (HQT-model), informationabout the maximum run-off from 6 HMS located in the upper catchment of the riverNisav was used. Information about the HMS and the observation period and theircatchment area is presented in Table. 1 and the spatial location of the HMS ispresented in Figure 1.Table 1. HMS and observation periodSubbasin HMS-Nr. Observations Number AreaName From/to years km²Visochica River (HMS Brachevci – R. Serbia) 47937 1961 - 2010 49 227.00 EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 3. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaErma river (HMS Strezimirovtsi – R. Bulgaria) 452 1961-1967 7 117,00Erma River (HMS Trunski Odorovtsi – R. 557.00Serbia) 47914 1961-2010 49Erma River ( HMS Trun – Bulgaria) 11650/95 1937-1983 37 360,5Nishava River (HMS Dimitrovgrad – R. Serbia) 47910 1961-2010 49 232.00Nishava river (HMS Kalotina – R. Bulgaria) 11800/223 1967-1983 16 267,00Fig. 1 Gauging stations in the basin of Nishava riverThe estimated empirical probability curves of maximum run-off are presented inFig.2.Figure 2 Empirical probability curves of maximum run-off EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 4. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia Empirical distribution curve of Nishava river, HMS Dimitrovgrad m3/s12010080604020 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 p% Empirical security curve of Nishava river, HMS Trnski Odorovtsim3/s18016014012010080604020 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 p% EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 5. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia Empirical distribution curve of Visochica river, HMS Brachevtsi m3/s 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100The statistical parameters that define the curve of security log-Pearson Type III arepresented in Table. 2.Table 2. Statistical parameters of the curve log-Pearson Type III. Statistical HMS HMS HMS parameters Dimitrovgrad Trnski Brachevtsi Odorovtsi X 1,4334 1,5569 1,5237 S 0,3212 0,2913 0,2749 G 0,1 0,2 0,1Based on this, the annual probability of exceedance is determined and persented intable 3Table 3. Maximum run-off with different security of Nishava riverAnnual HMS HMS Trnski HMS Brachevtsi, Repetition intervalprobability Dimitrovgrad, odorovtsi, 3 Q m /s 3 Q Q m /s EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 6. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia 3 m /s1,0 2.0229 3.94 3.6276 Each year0,5 26.7285 35.25 33.0469 Every two years0,2 Every five years0,1 70.428 86.28 75.6502 Every ten years0,02 129.1611 153.43 126.7377 Every fifty years0,01 160.0589 189.26 152.5291 Every hundred years0,002 247.6213 292.58 223.0177 Every five hundred years The theoretical distribution functions which best approximate the empiricalsecurity curves of the studied HMS and the statistical parameters that define themare shown in Fig. 3 Figure 3. Theoretical distribution curve Nišava River HMS Dimitrovgrad EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 7. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia 300 m3/s 250 200 150 Имперична крива Теоретична крива 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 p% 80 100 120Theoretical distribution function of Nishava river, HMS Trnski Odorovtsi 350 300 250 200 Имперична крива 150 Теоретична крива 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120Theoretical distribution function of Visochitsa river, HMS Brachevtsi EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 8. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbia 250 200 150 Имперична крива 100 Теоретична крива 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120Определяне на ландшафтните факториFigure 4. Main geological types in Nishava river basinFigure 5. Main geological types EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 9. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaFigure 6 Landuse map, Corine 2006Determination of the maximum run-off by the regiuonalization method EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 10. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - Serbiathe values of water quantity (HQT), determined by the method of regionalization andthe empirical values of the maximum run-off /Plotting Positions/ are shown in Fig.7.These graphics show that authoritative (relevant) HMS model adapted to theregionalization can well estimate the values of water quantity.Fig.7.Figure 7. Maximum run-off with different security of Nishava river determined by themethod of regionalization, HMS Dimitrovgrad 300 250 200 Имперична крива 150 Теоретична крива 100 Регионализирана крива 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120Figure 8. Maximum runoff with different security of Erma river set by the method ofregionalization, HMS Trnski Odorovtsi 350 m3/s 300 250 200 Имперична крива Теоретична крива 150 Регионализирана крива 100 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 p% EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 11. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaFigure 9. Maximum runoff with different security of Visochitsa river set by the methodof regionalization, HMS Brachevtsi 250 m3/s 200 150 Имперична крива Теоретична крива 100 Регионализирана крива 50 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110Determination of the maximum run-off with different security of Nishava riverby the method of regionalizationThrough regionalization (adapted to regional run-off values with a certain probability)it is possible to easily and quickly determine the water levels with a certain probabilityanywhere on the river area for future research in this area.The values of the parameters and the factors of maximum run-off in Nishava river inGodech are presented in Table.4Table 4. Parameter values and factors of the Nišava river in Godech town LF HMS- Peri Leng AE NJa (Gemittelt LFRiver - HMS № od ht . 0 AE0 U W IG L LC hr ) (Zielwert) GI m S km2 % % % km km mNishava – 83, 1,1 6 1, 26, 6,7 96 135 EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”
  • 12. IPA CBC Programme Bulgaria - SerbiaGodech town 05 5 4 3 32 5 0The values of the maximum run-off with different interval times, calculated by theregionalization method are presented in Table.5Table 5. Maximum run-off with different interval times, calculated by theregionalization method ln(Y) Y=MHq MHQ YT HqT HQT [m3/s/km2] [m3/s] [m3/s/km2] [m3/s]MHq -0.652608 0.520686 43.243Hq2 50 -0.211010 0.8097661 0.422 35.017Hq5 20 0.332801 1.3948698 0.726 60.318Hq10 10 0.620712 1.8602528 0.969 80.443Hq20 5 0.862025 2.3679504 1.233 102.397Hq50 2 1.135126 3.1115644 1.620 134.553Hq100 1 1.318140 3.7364666 1.946 161.576Hq200 0,5 1.487383 4.4254975 2.304 191.372Hq500 0,2 1.693249 5.4371176 2.831 235.117Studies show that the regionalization method developed in Germany is applicableboth for Bulgaria and the Republic of Serbia and provides very good results. By thismethod it was possible to reliably determining the maximum water levels in the riverNishava Godech. This publication was elaboraed with the assistance of the European Union, through IPA Cross-border co-operation programme CCI No 2007CB16IPO006. The contents of this publication is a responsibility of the SRD-SU „St. Kliment Ohridski” and should in no way be accepted as a statement of the European Union or the Managaing Authority of the programme. EUROPEAN UNION Bulgaria – Serbia IPA Cross-border Programme “Assessment of flood risk – a base for sustainable development in upper part of Nishava catchment”